How exactly can Kanye West win the Democratic nomination?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm asking for an actual path to victory for him, not just "But Trump" or "muh black vote/muh Millennials". There's many issues those don't cover:

-Trump didn't just go from being an eccentric reality TV host to a presidential candidate in one swoop. He had been an activist in some right wing causes since Obama's first term, first when he started the Birther crap, and had spoken before CPAC and some anti-immigration groups. Kanye West better become an activist pretty fast to start a following.

-For that matter everything I've ever heard from him in regards to politics is barely coherent. Trump says stupid stuff, but it's the stuff his base wants to hear. Kanye West's political talk sounds like some sage troll on an internet message board. This is a guy whose most profound political statement is "George Bush doesn't care about black people."

-The nomination systems are very different. Superdelegates, PR apportionment and the many different demographic groups in the Democratic primary mean that Trump would've likely not won the nomination based on the same rules. Kanye already has almost all superdelegates out of reach, can't pull off things like winning all of South Carolina's delegates with one third of the vote like Trump did, and is going to have to have crossfactional appeal to many different types of Democratic voters.

-Also remember that Trump was facing the most pathetic batch of candidates in decades, and used this to his advantage by lifting himself by ravaging them at the debates. If Sanders runs again, he'll be against an already proven heavyweight campaigner who won't play Jeb to his Trump at the debates. Same with Biden if all his hinting is true. Even if a Jeb equivalent ends up in the running, I don't forsee Kanye West becoming an attack dog able to cannibalize him like Trump did. More than likely he'll end looking Marco Rubio trying to dispense with this fiction on the receiving end of attacks

-And for that matter assuming the black vote will vote in bloc for him like they did for Obama and Hillary is ridiculous. It didn't happen with Al Sharpton in 2004 and didn't happen to that level for any black candidates in the past. Even Obama had to work on consolidating the black vote before the primaries started. Something tells me that the 65+ black demographic that voted ~95% for Hillary in some states isn't going to be rushing toward Kanye West to that degree. And those are the key drivers of the black vote, not black Millennials. All of this too is even assuming that no other black candidate runs even with buzz about people like Corey Booker and Kamala Harris.

-And obviously, the black vote is not going to win him Iowa or New Hampshire. He could win every single black voter in those states and still fail to break the 15% threshold easily.

-Now as for other Millennials, most don't give a sh!t about him. Most of his fans are Millennials does not mean the inverse of most Millennials are his fans to be true.

-If Sanders runs again, a Millennial powerhouse with a huge following already will be running. I know Atlas is full of socially inept nerds who tend to regard fellow Millennials with disdain and think they value celebrity above everything, but the reason this 70something white haired guy got such a following is he spoke to the issues Millennials care about. So did Obama too to a large extent in 2008, I know this because I was one of his textbook young cult followers. Kanye West is known for his activism that appeals to Millennials on...uh...

-The sort of people who ARE likely to think "OMG CELEBRITY!" and vote based on that, especially amongst Millennials, aren't likely to vote in the first place.

-And of course there's the fact that Trump could very well inspire a backlash against celebrity candidates, especially amongst Democrats. I can already see the talking points people make about how we shouldn't stoop to their level and nominate a celebrity joke like the Republicans did.

It was in the middle but bears repeating...how does he win Iowa or New Hampshire? Actually the question could easily be how does he break 15% and win delegates from Iowa or New Hampshire because faced with all the above and the demographics of those states (clearly not places where muh blacks and muh Millennials can carry someone to victory), even that is unlikely.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'll sum it up in one word: anger. If anger boils over on the left, they'll want a way of giving the middle finger to the DNC first, then the right. It's not just black millennials. I could see lots of young people going for him if he talks a tough enough talk.

Granted, that wouldn't be enough for him to beat another candidate one-on-one, but Democrats will probably be lining up to take on Trump, so the establishment/not green tea party vote could get split between a ton of candidates, which might make Kanye's base the biggest. I could also see Kanye as having the most enthusiastic supporters, which would help him in caucuses (assuming that those still exist in 2020). Yes, Democratic super delegates would rather sell their soul to the devil than get behind Kanye, but they'd need to get behind one other candidate en masse, rather than being split among several.

I'm not saying it's likely, but it would be foolish not to take his bid at least somewhat seriously, and try to get behind someone else before it's too late. Never underestimate the ability of people to make irrational decisions when they're angry. Case in point, the 2016 election.

Well I'd say that the main beneficiary of anger against Trump likely wouldn't be a guy who admitted he didn't vote and said he would've voted for Trump if he did.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

He could somehow win black voters and urban white voters? But if you'd asked the same thing about Donald Trump in late 2012, what would any of us had said?

It all depends on context

So you are literally just saying "but Trump" and "blacks/Millennials", without addressing any of the counterpoints to that.

Also how does he win Iowa or New Hampshire that way?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

He could somehow win black voters and urban white voters? But if you'd asked the same thing about Donald Trump in late 2012, what would any of us had said?

It all depends on context

So you are literally just saying "but Trump" and "blacks/Millennials", without addressing any of the counterpoints to that.

Also how does he win Iowa or New Hampshire that way?

I'm indicating that it would be difficult for him to build a winning coalition and that we have no idea. Anyway, my actual thoughts.

-Among the first four states, NH and SC are the only ones he has a chance of. He could possibly win Southern NH by enough to cancel out the northern parts of the state, and get a small plurality there. Then, momentum would get him a decent-sized SC win. This leads to this sort of map:

Kirsten Gilibrand
Kamala Harris
Kanye West
Sherrod Brown

So Kanye wins on a black-young coalition by being Bernie with appeal to African-Americans, I guess.

Oh yeah I can totally see Kanye West winning the Dakotas, Montana, Maine, Wyoming, Nebraska and Kansas.

And why would he be appealing in the white flight Boston exurbia region that is southern NH?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So far the reasonings given are:

-Variations on "But Trump" or "blacks and Millennials"
-Speculation that people will be so angry at Trump they'll respond by nominating a guy who effectively endorsed Trump.
-A primary map that indicates that Kanye West is going to be particularly strong amongst rural Great Plains voters.

So...anything else?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm trying to imagine what kind of people would even sign on to manage his campaign.  Would he even be able to hire people who know the system well enough to deal with ballot access issues in the primaries?

Also, it would be fun to see him up on the debate stage with all the "normal" candidates, but I don't really see that ever happening.

This reminded me of another point: fundraising. Obama in 2008 and Sanders were able to effectively raise a large war chest on tons of small donations because people believed in their messages. Is Kanye West going to be able to do this? I guess he could self fund, but how much of his money would be willing to sink into a vanity campaign?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

There's even another black candidate running in LLR's scenario!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That also fails to explain how he wins those lily white plains states.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I came just to post what strange land did.

Yeah this guy is totally going to be the angry anti Trump candidate.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Oh sh[inks] he's gonna be the Ralph Nader of 2020 isn't he?

Assuming he runs, gets mass ballot access and can attract that high a percentage with his mostly incoherent political talk.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm bumping this because people are talking about him as a serious candidate again.

And worth noting, "but Trump" doesn't even make sense because Donald Trump or anyone like him has never won the Democratic nomination. And no it's not the same thing as the Republican nomination. It's like saying if a far right party has won seats in a country using PR then a similar party should have no problem winning seats in a country using FPTP.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Ha, I was right.