Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15
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  Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15
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Poll
Question: How would you vote in the Oct. 15 election ?
#1
SPÖ
#2
ÖVP
#3
FPÖ
#4
Greens
#5
NEOS
#6
PILZ
#7
KPÖ+
#8
FLÖ
#9
G!LT
#10
Whites
#11
For a small regional party
#12
I'd vote invalid
#13
I'd stay home
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Author Topic: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15  (Read 192191 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #100 on: January 15, 2017, 12:41:08 PM »

Horrible polling numbers out today for the Vienna-SPÖ:

A new Research Affairs poll for Ö24 shows that if state elections were held today, the SPÖ would drop from 40% to 25%, with the FPÖ rising to 38%.



That comes after huge intra-party unrest, intrigues etc. - after which Mayor Häupl now decided to pull the plug on some cabinet members, with Sonja Wehsely the first to "go" this Friday (in fact, she was rather controversial and a better description would be "ousted"). A couple other of "Häupl's women" will also be axed in the next weeks, because of pressure from influential party members from the outlying districts of Vienna.

In general, there was an intra-party fight between the more FPÖ-leaning SPÖ-members from the outer districts such as Simmering, Favoriten, Donaustadt and Floridsdorf vs. the more left-leftists within the SPÖ in the inner-city districts.

And the intra-party fight also took a toll on the Mayor himself, with his approval ratings sliding rapidely. So, he decided to act. But I guess Häupls days as Mayor are coming to an end anyway soon.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-Desaster-fuer-SP-Wien/265496725
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ApatheticAustrian
ApathicAustrian
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« Reply #101 on: January 15, 2017, 02:00:32 PM »

amazingly the liberal NEO party is going to overtake the conservative ÖVP in vienna soon...or so it seems.

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #102 on: January 16, 2017, 01:57:47 PM »

Thanks to the closure of the Balkan route, asylum requests are down by a lot in 2016 - but still among the highest in Europe on a per capita basis:

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https://uk.news.yahoo.com/asylum-requests-austria-more-halved-2016-180914058.html
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #103 on: January 17, 2017, 04:42:23 AM »

The "Kurier" reports that the powerful Governor of Lower Austria, Erwin Pröll (ÖVP), will announce today if he'll retire as Governor or wage another election in 2018.

Pröll, who has been Governor of Lower Austria for the past 25 (!) years, has been thinking carefully over the Christmas holidays about what his next step will be.



If he retires, it's likely that the former Austrian Interior Minister Johanna Mikl-Leitner (also ÖVP) will succeed him as Governor and lead the ÖVP into the 2018 state election.

While Pröll has governed Lower Austria like a king in the past 25 years and always managed to win absolute majorities for the ÖVP, it is likely that the ÖVP's share will drop by quite a bit with Mikl-Leitner as the new Governor (but of course the party will remain the dominant party in the state).

And, if Pröll really decides to retire today, it is also likely that Michael Häupl's days as Vienna mayor are soon to be over ...

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/niederoesterreich-tag-der-entscheidung-von-landeshauptmann-erwin-proell/241.488.418
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #104 on: January 17, 2017, 06:17:24 AM »

Aaannnd, he's retiring ... in March.
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ApatheticAustrian
ApathicAustrian
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« Reply #105 on: January 17, 2017, 08:02:55 AM »

end of the world as we know it.

this is like the arab spring for austria.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #106 on: January 17, 2017, 10:08:20 AM »

end of the world as we know it.

this is like the arab spring for austria.

Yes, the sun is going down in Lower Austria ... Tongue

LOL

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aross
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« Reply #107 on: January 17, 2017, 10:56:57 AM »

Yeah, this is totally the result of profound contemplation and not because the story that broke a few days back may result in substantial proof of his massive corruption for the first time. Definitely. For sure.

Good riddance.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #108 on: January 17, 2017, 11:02:09 AM »

Yeah, this is totally the result of profound contemplation and not because the story that broke a few days back may result in substantial proof of his massive corruption for the first time. Definitely. For sure.

Good riddance.

Everyone who thinks that the "System Pröll" is or was without corruption, is pretty naive anyway IMO.

But you have to give Pröll some credit for pulling out at exactly the right moment and leaving it to Johanna Mikl-Leitner to deal with the coming elections, attacks and "uncoverings" ... Wink
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ApatheticAustrian
ApathicAustrian
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« Reply #109 on: January 17, 2017, 11:17:51 AM »

imho pröll wanted to leave the office anyway......this case of a smoking gun just accelerated the speed of the switch.

no one would dare to prosecute emperor erwin.....and i am pretty sure why secretary of the interior, mister sobatka, rejected any thoughts about becoming governor himself recently......why would he want to go anywhere close to this pile of smoking ....cookies....anyway? he was responsible for the financial situation of lower austria in the past and knows perfectly what for traps are waiting to spring over there. compared to that carinthia could become a minor problem.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #110 on: January 18, 2017, 08:18:55 AM »

It's official:

Johanna Mikl-Leitner will follow Gov. Erwin Pröll as Governor of Lower Austria, once he retires in March.

This means Austria will have a female governor again, the first one since Gabriele Burgstaller - who left in 2013.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #111 on: January 18, 2017, 08:30:18 AM »

The new and the old Governor:

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #112 on: January 18, 2017, 08:38:57 AM »

Media is speculating that if Sebastian Kurz wants to become the next Austrian Chancellor, he'd need to take the heavy risk and already become party leader at some point this year and also call early elections this year.

That's because with the Pröll-retirement, the Lower Austria ÖVP will drop by 10-15% in next years state election, which is held no later than March.

If Kurz were elected party leader after that catastrophic state election, he'd start the general election campaign with a huge setback.

On the other hand, early federal elections in 2017 would also be problematic for Kurz: Austrian voters do not like early elections and always punish the party that calls them. Besides, Austrians want 2017 off from any election after having the 3 presidential elections last year. Or as the media says: Austrians right now are "tired" of voting (which is a bit funny, because turnout increased last year between every election).
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ApatheticAustrian
ApathicAustrian
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« Reply #113 on: January 18, 2017, 09:14:50 PM »
« Edited: January 18, 2017, 09:16:35 PM by ApatheticAustrian »

how would kurz ever be able to become chancellor?

3 ways.....one more stupid than the next.

1) make the ÖVP either the strongest party (no chance in hell) or the strongest party inside of a coalition....even if we exclude the FPÖ, without CRUSHING the spö and creating a 3 or 4 party coalition or a minority coalition, this is nearly impossible.

2) trying to dominate the SPÖ like it happened in styria and blackmail them...either they give the chancellor to the ÖVP and play nice, even if they get more votes, or the next FPÖ-ÖVP coalition becomes reality. seems really stupid, imho. on the one hand, the SPÖ was full of rage after the ÖVP pulled the prototype of this stunt in styria and since then the voices in favor of a SPÖ- FPÖ coalition became even louder. do something like that and there is a good chance, the SPÖ either dares kurz to enter a coalition with the FPÖ or asks its own voters to agree to their own FPÖ-SPÖ coalition.....not very problable imho.

3) we are repeating the happy year of 1999 and the FPÖ is able to enter the coalition through giving the chancellor title to the weaker party, the ÖVP. Just a few fast thoughts: Why should the FPÖ, MUUUUCH stronger than in 1999, ever agree to that coalition? in fact, this coalition nearly killed the FPÖ on the national level, was a year-long disaster and totally not worth giving away all this power. strache was an active politican during that time and even promised he would never ever repeat those mistakes.....repeating this stupidty would not only break those promises without any good reason it would also not giving the FPÖ anything it couldn't win on its own.

imho there is just no way in hell for chancellor kurz....wrong time, wrong country, wrong party. he could become a powerbroker for years to come and a really important vice chancellor/statesman, etc.... but claiming the top spot just won't happen.
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Klartext89
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« Reply #114 on: January 19, 2017, 03:22:12 AM »

I'm pretty sure that Kurz will become Chancellor after a snap election in 2017 (probably in the fall).

Why?

1. FPÖ will be strongest Party with around 33-35%.
2. ÖVP and SPÖ won't have a majority.
3. ÖVP knows that a coalition without FPÖ but with far-left Greens or social-liberal Neos will get the party totally doomed and FPÖ will be above 40 soon.
4. Strache was/is FPÖ Leader and therefore candidate for chancellor. President VanderBellen denies to confirm/appoint him, there is the danger of a constitutional crisis and damage for the democracy. Therefore FPÖ and ÖVP will agree on Kurz as Chancellor, VanderBellen will agree on accepting the FPÖ nominations for the Cabinet positions.

All in all, I can totally live with an ÖVP chancellor, because it's about policy, not about names.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #115 on: January 19, 2017, 01:53:58 PM »

Today the SPÖ called off their planned party platform convention in May, because "the party platform is not ready yet" (they worked to update it for the past 3 years, lol).

This is the official version of the SPÖ.

Media is speculating though that the SPÖ will simply use Kern's recent speech and his "Plan A" as their election campaign for an early election either in May or in the fall, because the work with the ÖVP will continue to be a pain in the ass in the next months.

http://derstandard.at/2000051128460/SPOe-sagt-ihren-Parteitag-im-Mai-ab
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #116 on: January 20, 2017, 05:27:01 AM »

A new Vienna poll is out today. Not as bad for the SPÖ as the last one on top of the thread, but still really bad:



http://www.heute.at/news/politik/Umfrage-FPOE-in-Wien-mit-37-Prozent-Nummer-1;art23660,1391095
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #117 on: January 20, 2017, 08:46:12 AM »

Muna Duzdar (SPÖ), the first Muslim cabinet member in Austria (she's of Palestinian origin), has visited Israel recently.

She praised Israel for being the "start-up country #1" and wants to bring some Israeli know-how to Austria.



http://derstandard.at/2000050161381/Duzdar-holte-sich-Tipps-der-Start-up-Nation-in-Israel

(when she became a Minister, the FPÖ subtly attacked her for being "anti-Israel" because of her Palestinian origins and also - subtly - because she's Muslim, even though she has often said that she's non-religious, but was only raised Muslim ... Tongue)

She's also a strong advocate for gay rights in the "It gets better" campaign and an advocate against hate speech on social media, but doesn't want to ban "fake-news" - calling it censorship.

More on Duzdar and Israel:

http://www.jta.org/2017/01/20/news-opinion/world/austrias-state-secretary-being-palestinian-doesnt-make-me-anti-israel
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Omega21
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« Reply #118 on: January 20, 2017, 10:13:36 PM »

Muna Duzdar (SPÖ), the first Muslim cabinet member in Austria (she's of Palestinian origin), has visited Israel recently.

She praised Israel for being the "start-up country #1" and wants to bring some Israeli know-how to Austria.



http://derstandard.at/2000050161381/Duzdar-holte-sich-Tipps-der-Start-up-Nation-in-Israel

(when she became a Minister, the FPÖ subtly attacked her for being "anti-Israel" because of her Palestinian origins and also - subtly - because she's Muslim, even though she has often said that she's non-religious, but was only raised Muslim ... Tongue)

She's also a strong advocate for gay rights in the "It gets better" campaign and an advocate against hate speech on social media, but doesn't want to ban "fake-news" - calling it censorship.

More on Duzdar and Israel:

http://www.jta.org/2017/01/20/news-opinion/world/austrias-state-secretary-being-palestinian-doesnt-make-me-anti-israel

It always amazes me how they manage to take a crap on themselves with their statements.

Guess that's why they always end up drowning themselves, even though the current Situation in Austria (mainly Immigration) is a godsend for the Right.
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ApatheticAustrian
ApathicAustrian
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« Reply #119 on: January 20, 2017, 10:29:23 PM »

they are so established and strong over here that they never fear for any kind of backlash.

and it won't cost them any votes they would get otherwise....the FPÖ is a known metric and its content isn't veiled.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #120 on: January 21, 2017, 04:11:05 AM »

2 new polls out today (and they show that the SPÖ did not gain a whole lot after the Kern-speech. A reason for this could be that the Strache-speech was also well-received by the public):

"Research Affairs" poll for Ö24



Chancellor vote:



Which speech did you like most ?



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/SPOe-gewinnt-nach-Kern-Rede/266178434

...

And the new "Profil" poll:

33% FPÖ
27% SPÖ
20% ÖVP
11% Greens
  8% NEOS
  1% Others

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20170121_OTS0001/profil-umfrage-kanzlerfrage-kern-doppelt-so-stark-wie-strache
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #121 on: January 21, 2017, 07:41:10 AM »

New Market poll on democracy, other forms of government and voting:

  9% say elections are useless, my vote doesn't count at all
24% do somewhat agree with this

43% say my vote somewhat counts in the democratic process
22% say their vote definitely counts

Among the 33% who say their vote doesn't really count, FPÖ-voters and young people are dominant, as well as traditional non-voters and people who are unhappy about the outcome of the presidential election.

54% are happy with the outcome of the presidential election (of which 90% say their vote counts), while 40% are unhappy about the outcome.

What do you think about democracy in general, as outlined in the Austrian constitution ?

79% good thing (24% very good, 55% somewhat good)
17% bad thing (4% very bad, 13% somewhat bad)

What do you think about the following political systems ?

A dictatorship with a strong Führer (leader): 9% good, 82% bad
A military government: 5% good, no number for bad

http://derstandard.at/2000051251491/Ein-Drittel-glaubt-dass-Wahlen-nichts-veraendern
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #122 on: January 21, 2017, 07:51:20 AM »

If we look at the poll above about democracy and voting, a point could be made that the loss(es) of Norbert Hofer last year was bad for democracy - to some extent:

Norbert Hofer's voters, to a certain degree, are the ones who feel left out of the democratic process and are usually the ones who say "my vote doesn't matter and nothing changes".

If Hofer had won the Presidency, these people would get a feeling that their vote counts after all and would probably be less prone to conspiracy theories or at least they would vote more often in future elections (if VdB lost, his supporters would have been mad, but they'd still remain calm and turn out in future elections like before).
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Omega21
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« Reply #123 on: January 21, 2017, 09:23:55 AM »

they are so established and strong over here that they never fear for any kind of backlash.

and it won't cost them any votes they would get otherwise....the FPÖ is a known metric and its content isn't veiled.


If I could Vote, in certain Circumstances (like 2015) I would maybe give my Vote to them (for the simple reason that I value Immigration and National Identity more than other currently popular topics, even though I am also a Migrant in Austria). But they always make these retarded decisions that in the end make me think that they could very well be a Joke.

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ApatheticAustrian
ApathicAustrian
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« Reply #124 on: January 21, 2017, 12:29:44 PM »

If I could Vote, in certain Circumstances (like 2015) I would maybe give my Vote to them (for the simple reason that I value Immigration and National Identity more than other currently popular topics, even though I am also a Migrant in Austria). But they always make these retarded decisions that in the end make me think that they could very well be a Joke.

nothing wrong with voting for them in general - also nothing wrong with voting for them as a migrant.

even the FPÖ himselves splits foreigners in good ones and bad ones, only the definition changes every few years.

in the past this was about skin colour, now it's about religion...Dr. Jörg Haider has had maaaaaaaaaany friends from the balcan region. ^^

one should just know what to expect from them - as you seemingly do.

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