Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15

[Tender Branson]

New Research Affairs poll (July 17-18, n=600):

32% ÖVP
26% FPÖ
25% SPÖ
  6% NEOS
  6% PILZ
  5% Greens

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Griss-bringt-NEOS-nur-1-Prozent/291688960

[Tender Branson]

Sebastian Kurz: Flawless Beautiful Son-in-Law, Grandson in Chief and Hero of the Old Ladies.

[Tender Branson]

Uh-oh !

Anti-semitic trouble for the FPÖ:

Johannes Hübner, MP and the FPÖ-speaker for foreign affairs, was speaking at a right-wing gathering in Thüringen (Germany) last year - in which he referred to Hans Kelsen as "Hans Kohn" and "that this is a very common Jewish name". After which the right-wing audience laughed.

* Hans Kelsen is the architect of the Austrian constitution and was the target of anti-semitic writers back in the 1920s and 1930s who also smeared him with the name "Kohn".

http://derstandard.at/2000061507240/Antisemitismus-Kultusgemeinde-fordert-FPOe-zum-Ausschluss-Huebners-auf

The Austrian Jewish Community calls on Hübner to resign or the FPÖ to act. Chancellor Kern also called the comments "totally inacceptable".

[TheSaint250]

Any response from Strache?

[Tender Branson]

Any response from Strache?

Hübner himself has sent out a statement, calling the accusations against him "a witchhunt by the usual suspects to fill the summer-hole". But he said the comments he made are true.

The accusations were brought up by the left-liberal "Standard" newspaper, which often releases accusations against the FPÖ. They have tapes of the far-right event.

No word from Strache yet. Will be interesting what happens. Strache ordered a strict semitic policy within the party (travelling to Israel etc.) in the last years and kicked out everyone who said anti-semitic stuff. On the other hand, Hübner was mentioned as a possible cabinet member in a future government, so ... this should be interesting.

[palandio]

"that this is a very common Jewish name"

You're not quoting Hübner here, but the Standard article. And the Standard journalist is completely correct because Kohn is a common Jewish name.

As you are saying, calling him Kohn was used in the 30s (by Carl Schmitt and others) as a smear to reduce Hans Kelsen onto his Jewishness. This smear was revived in the 60s by the infamous professor Taras Borodajkewycz who remains quite popular in the Austrian far-right academic scene. You can assume that at least some people at the gathering were aware of the Carl Schmitt/Borodajkewycz quote as some kind of running gag.

The thing about these quotes is often that when isolated they can seem accidental and "innocent". But for example Hübner in the same speech also said that chancellor Kern "has excellent links with the freemason scene" and that Austrian freemasonry is "colored neither Protestant nor Catholic but differently". And so on, and so on. Speeches of this type are full of these codes. This is why I often have mixed feelings about the public outcry over single quotes. The risk is that many people might say "ok, that's a weird thing to say. But it could be explained by [whatever]. Isn't it exaggerated to start a witchhunt over two words like this? To hell with the political correctness!"

[TheSaint250]

Any response from Strache?

Hübner himself has sent out a statement, calling the accusations against him "a witchhunt by the usual suspects to fill the summer-hole". But he said the comments he made are true.

The accusations were brought up by the left-liberal "Standard" newspaper, which often releases accusations against the FPÖ. They have tapes of the far-right event.

No word from Strache yet. Will be interesting what happens. Strache ordered a strict semitic policy within the party (travelling to Israel etc.) in the last years and kicked out everyone who said anti-semitic stuff. On the other hand, Hübner was mentioned as a possible cabinet member in a future government, so ... this should be interesting.

Huh. Didn't know that about Strache. It's good that he did that.

[Tender Branson]

New poll (Matzka Research/NEWS magazine, n=800, July 5-12, MoE = +/- 3.5%):



The FPÖ seems to be stronger recently. Maybe a reaction to the brutal murder of an old Austrian couple by an IS-inspired Tunisian Muslim (who blamed the FPÖ for his personal misery and who killed the couple and burned down their house because he - wrongly - thought they were FPÖ-supporters ?)

[Tender Branson]

Any response from Strache?

Hübner will face no consequences after a personal talk with FPÖ-general secretary Kickl today.

http://derstandard.at/2000061554128/Antisemitismus-Keine-Konsequenzen-fuer-Huebner-in-der-FPOe

Strache (who is currently on vacation in Spain) did not comment, Norbert Hofer says "Hübner's choice of words was not OK and that people in the FPÖ need to speak more carefully" and Hübner himself said that he will speak "more carefully in the future".

[SNJ1985]

The FPÖ seems to be stronger recently.

Do you think there's any chance that they could take the lead back?

[TheSaint250]

Any response from Strache?

Hübner will face no consequences after a personal talk with FPÖ-general secretary Kickl today.

http://derstandard.at/2000061554128/Antisemitismus-Keine-Konsequenzen-fuer-Huebner-in-der-FPOe

Strache (who is currently on vacation in Spain) did not comment, Norbert Hofer says "Hübner's choice of words was not OK and that people in the FPÖ need to speak more carefully" and Hübner himself said that he will speak "more carefully in the future".

Stupid that he's facing no consequences but good that Hofer spoke out. Hopefully Strache does later but it seems like he doesn't wanna deal with this

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ seems to be stronger recently.

Do you think there's any chance that they could take the lead back?

Nope.

Any response from Strache?

Hübner will face no consequences after a personal talk with FPÖ-general secretary Kickl today.

http://derstandard.at/2000061554128/Antisemitismus-Keine-Konsequenzen-fuer-Huebner-in-der-FPOe

Strache (who is currently on vacation in Spain) did not comment, Norbert Hofer says "Hübner's choice of words was not OK and that people in the FPÖ need to speak more carefully" and Hübner himself said that he will speak "more carefully in the future".

Stupid that he's facing no consequences but good that Hofer spoke out. Hopefully Strache does later but it seems like he doesn't wanna deal with this

He should definitely face some consequences, but I guess he's too important for them and they think it's better to get it over with. Still, Kern and Kurz + VdB + Greens + NEOS all attack the FPÖ and Hübner because of the code words and want him to resign.

[Tender Branson]

New Research Affairs poll for ÖSTERREICH (July 18-20, n=600) polls ALL small parties and it shows that Pilz is at 4% and comedian Roland Düringer's planned party "G!LT" is at 2%. A proposed list from Robert Lugar (currently Team Stronach) would get 1% and other parties (KPÖ+ etc.) 2%.

They also polled the race without any new lists and the FPÖ would gain 1% in this scenario, the Greens 2% and NEOS 1%.

[Tender Branson]

"War of words" between Kurz and some Italian officials about the migrant issue:

Italy should not transfer migrants to the mainland and stop them from moving north

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.ansa.it/english/news/politics/2017/07/20/italy-should-not-transfer-migrants-2_ed36d8be-5415-409a-b9df-c3bb0df6be09.html

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FPÖ's Strache comes to the defense of Kurz and says Lampedusa Mayor Totò Martello should apologize to Kurz for comparing him to a "Nazi skinhead" who wants to turn the island into a "concentration camp".

Strache says the mayors "constant attacks against Kurz are totally unacceptable".

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/fpoe-chef-heinz-christian-strache-italien-muss-sich-bei-kurz-entschuldigen/276.326.274

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Meanwhile, thousands of migrants have arrived in South Tyrol in recent weeks and shelters there are already full ...

[Tender Branson]

Peter Pilz got a new high-level recruit with current 29-year old SPÖ-MP Daniela Holzinger:

https://m.kurier.at/politik/inland/spoe-rebellin-daniela-holzinger-soll-fuer-die-liste-pilz-kandidieren/276.365.798

Holzinger was removed from the SPÖs election list because she's an intra party critic with positions against party line. She often attacked the party power structure as being too stiff and was against TTIP and CETA until the end. The SPÖ as a party was first against CETA (like 90% of party members in a membership poll) and then made a u-turn in favour.

[Tender Branson]

Interesting development:

Both the SPÖ and the ÖVP are increasing the pressure on the FPÖ and said that "there won't be a coalition with them if they do not solve their Hübner-problem".

http://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5256490/Doskozil-stellt-FPOe-nach-HuebnerAussagen-die-Rute-ins-Fenster

Both Kern and Kurz and several other high-ranking politicians from SPÖ and ÖVP, as well as President VdB, Greens and NEOS called Hübners remarks "unacceptable" and that "a line was crossed" and that the FPÖ needs to act (and remove him). The FPÖ said they talked with him and considers "the case solved".

[Tender Branson]

New poll (Research Affairs/Ö24):

80% of Austrians want the Mediterranean route for migrants (Libya -> Italy) closed.

76% favour border controls at the Austrian/Italian border if Italy fails to limit the migrant flow to the North.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Fluechtlinge-Oesterreicher-fuer-Brenner-Kontrollen/292003997

[Tender Branson]

The ÖVP-FPÖ coalition in Upper Austria is extremely popular after 2 years in office:

Spectra/OÖN poll



http://www.nachrichten.at/nachrichten/thema/OEVP-sichert-ersten-Platz-ab-Rot-und-Gruen-verharren-im-Tief;art180211,2629994

Compared with the 2015 state elections, the ÖVP gains 6% and the FPÖ 4%.

The new ÖVP-governor Stelzer has a 69-9 approval rating.

[windjammer]

The ÖVP-FPÖ coalition in Upper Austria is extremely popular after 2 years in office:

Spectra/OÖN poll



http://www.nachrichten.at/nachrichten/thema/OEVP-sichert-ersten-Platz-ab-Rot-und-Gruen-verharren-im-Tief;art180211,2629994

Compared with the 2015 state elections, the ÖVP gains 6% and the FPÖ 4%.

The new ÖVP-governor Stelzer has a 69-9 approval rating.

Why?

[Tender Branson]

Why?

Probably a combination of a few factors playing into the hands of both the ÖVP and FPÖ:

* A good economy, lower unemployment
* Upper Austria is a well-managed state, with low debt
* The rise of Kurz Austria-wide

These are things that help the ÖVP improve their numbers.

* Lower, but still-high immigration numbers and constant migrant crimes such as rapes and murders, like the one 3 weeks ago in which a Tunisian IS-inspired Muslim killed an old Austrian couple out of FPÖ-hate and who then burned down their house.

* The continued decline of the SPÖ as a "labour" party and party for workers (Upper Austria has a lot of manufacturing and steel jobs).

These things are helping the FPÖ improve their numbers.

* A lack of scandals => helps both the ÖVP and FPÖ.

[Tender Branson]

New OGM poll for the "Kurier":

Since their May poll, the ÖVP gains 1 point, the SPÖ loses 2, FPÖ is stable, Greens lose 2, NEOS gain 1 and Pilz gains 2 points.

I believe Pilz was not specifically asked as a choice, because his list is not in parliament yet - but more as a voluntary option.

[jaichind]

It seems that  both BZÖ and Team Stronach are pretty much dead.  They do not even show up in polls anymore.   If so these polling numbers should be highly disappointing to FPÖ since they are polling below sum of 2013 vote share for FPÖ, Team Stronach and BZÖ.   A good chuck of that vote seems have gone to ÖVP.

[TheSaint250]

It seems that  both BZÖ and Team Stronach are pretty much dead.  They do not even show up in polls anymore.   If so these polling numbers should be highly disappointing to FPÖ since they are polling below sum of 2013 vote share for FPÖ, Team Stronach and BZÖ.   A good chuck of that vote seems have gone to ÖVP.

TS announced that they weren't running candidates this time around. I believe BZÖ did the same

[TheSaint250]

New OGM poll for the "Kurier":

Since their May poll, the ÖVP gains 1 point, the SPÖ loses 2, FPÖ is stable, Greens lose 2, NEOS gain 1 and Pilz gains 2 points.

I believe Pilz was not specifically asked as a choice, because his list is not in parliament yet - but more as a voluntary option.

Is Pilz affecting the SPÖ's poll numbers?

[jaichind]

It seems that  both BZÖ and Team Stronach are pretty much dead.  They do not even show up in polls anymore.   If so these polling numbers should be highly disappointing to FPÖ since they are polling below sum of 2013 vote share for FPÖ, Team Stronach and BZÖ.   A good chuck of that vote seems have gone to ÖVP.

TS announced that they weren't running candidates this time around. I believe BZÖ did the same

Did both these parties endorse FPÖ?