Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15

[TheSaint250]

It seems that  both BZÖ and Team Stronach are pretty much dead.  They do not even show up in polls anymore.   If so these polling numbers should be highly disappointing to FPÖ since they are polling below sum of 2013 vote share for FPÖ, Team Stronach and BZÖ.   A good chuck of that vote seems have gone to ÖVP.

TS announced that they weren't running candidates this time around. I believe BZÖ did the same

Did both these parties endorse FPÖ?

I don't believe so. I'm relatively sure TS did not but I don't think BZÖ did either

[Tender Branson]

Well, the thing with TS+BZÖ is the following:

The Team Stronach announced in June that they are not running anymore in the Oct. election, because Frank Stronach (who's already quite old) has lost interest in the project after it turned out to be a massive failure over the past 4 years. Frank Stronach also said he would not allow the party to continue using his name "Frank Stronach" in a potential list by a current TS-MP. He also declined any financing for a followup party. Only one MP (Robert Lugar) is currently thinking about running such a list on his own, but his chances are very bad. A decision by Lugar could come next week. The public ORF will still host Frank Stronach one last time on July 31 in their summer interviews. Basically a farewell interview for Frank.

The BZÖ is even deader. They only exist in Carinthia anymore with 2 representatives in the state parliament, but the party there is dead broke and both have said they will only serve until their term is up and won't run in the next state election (which takes place early next year).

PS: Neither the Team Stronach nor the BZÖ has endorsed the FPÖ, but Lugar for example is basically an FPÖ member considering his daily talk and many of their previous voters will go back to the FPÖ. Many also to the ÖVP.

[Tender Branson]

Is Pilz affecting the SPÖ's poll numbers?

I guess Pilz would draw voters across the board (from all parties and previous non-voters). Much like comedian Roland Düringer's G!LT list.

Which is going to be good for turnout.

[Tender Branson]

Peter Pilz will announce his plans for his left-populist list tomorrow (it's like 99% certain he'll run) and already present some main candidates.

Possible candidates include:

Hanna Herbst (journalist for VICE-Alps)



Daniela Holzinger (current MP and SPÖ-rebel, who's place on the SPÖ-list was not renewed):



Alfred Noll (a Green university professor, author and lawyer)



Peter Kolba (a consumer protection advocate and activist)

[TheSaint250]

I'm excited to see where this goes!

[TheSaint250]

If you don't mind, TB, which party will you vote for?

[Tender Branson]

If you don't mind, TB, which party will you vote for?

Before Pilz's surprising removal from the Greens I was like 80% for Kern/SPÖ, 15% for NEOS and 5% for ÖVP.

Now, with Pilz (it will depend on his platform) I'm about 40% for Pilz, 40% for Kern/SPÖ, 15% for NEOS and 5% for ÖVP.

Might flip a coin in the end ...

I'm excited to see where this goes!

Me too.

[TheSaint250]

Ok thank you!

[Bumaye]

I know it's a long shot but would Pilz be open to a coalition with the FPÖ in case that was mathematically possible?

[DavidB.]

As you are saying, calling him Kohn was used in the 30s (by Carl Schmitt and others) as a smear to reduce Hans Kelsen onto his Jewishness. This smear was revived in the 60s by the infamous professor Taras Borodajkewycz who remains quite popular in the Austrian far-right academic scene. You can assume that at least some people at the gathering were aware of the Carl Schmitt/Borodajkewycz quote as some kind of running gag.

The thing about these quotes is often that when isolated they can seem accidental and "innocent". But for example Hübner in the same speech also said that chancellor Kern "has excellent links with the freemason scene" and that Austrian freemasonry is "colored neither Protestant nor Catholic but differently". And so on, and so on. Speeches of this type are full of these codes. This is why I often have mixed feelings about the public outcry over single quotes. The risk is that many people might say "ok, that's a weird thing to say. But it could be explained by [whatever]. Isn't it exaggerated to start a witchhunt over two words like this? To hell with the political correctness!"

Thank you for clarifying this. It is most unfortunate that the FPÖ continues to contain these elements.

[Tender Branson]

I know it's a long shot but would Pilz be open to a coalition with the FPÖ in case that was mathematically possible?

No, Pilz has repeatedly said he's against a coalition with the FPÖ, but might work with them on single issues such as the Eurofighter investigation committee. It is also speculated that his list might include some lower-level FPÖ members such as mayors etc. to broaden the appeal of the list and eat into the FPÖ share on election day.

[DavidB.]

When all is said and done, the FPÖ could end up only barely improving on its 2013 election result.

[Tender Branson]

When all is said and done, the FPÖ could end up only barely improving on its 2013 election result.

True. Much like the PVV in Holland or the FN in France - which both only improved slightly when compared with the previous parliamentary elections. And the AfD isn't doing all too hot either.

[Tender Branson]

Peter Pilz will announce his plans for his left-populist list tomorrow (it's like 99% certain he'll run) and already present some main candidates.

Possible candidates include:

Hanna Herbst (journalist for VICE-Alps)



Daniela Holzinger (current MP and SPÖ-rebel, who's place on the SPÖ-list was not renewed):



Alfred Noll (a Green university professor, author and lawyer)



Peter Kolba (a consumer protection advocate and activist)

Well, it seems they only had a final organisational meeting today.

Pilz scheduled an official press conference tomorrow at 10:30am to announce his plans together with his major supporters.

Meanwhile, PULS 4 TV knows more and announced "Pilz is running !" on their website and added him to their summer interviews for next Monday.

http://derstandard.at/2000061723640/Puls-4-Zusaetzliches-Sommergespraech-kommenden-Montag

That's possible because Frank Stronach pulled out of his farewell ORF summer interview, which was also scheduled for next Monday. Stronach said the ORF treats him unfairly and that's why he's pulling out.

[Tender Branson]

Austria will very likely have a budget surplus this year, the first time since WW2.

The projected deficit was expected to be 0.8% of the GDP, but not only are the tax revenues much higher so far because the economy is doing well, there's also other good news:

On July 20, the HETA bad bank started paying back 5.8 Bio. € to bondholders, of which 4.4 Bio. € went to the Austrian state and 1.4 Bio. € to the Bavarian BayernLB bank.

The 4.4 Bio. € are worth some 1.25% of Austria's GDP, so if the projected 0.8% deficit holds, there should be a small surplus in the end.

http://www.businessinsider.com/r-austrias-bad-bank-heta-says-started-bondholder-payout-2017-7?IR=T

It would also be the first time that Germany, Austria and Switzerland all have budget surpluses.

[Tender Branson]

Press conference with Peter Pilz right now ...

He's running !

[Tender Branson]

Pilz has presented the first 4 main candidates today who were sitting next to him at the press conference and who introduced themselves (more will follow):

* Stephanie Cox (seems to be an Austrian/Australian refugee advocate)
* Maria Stern (an activist for women's rights and fights against child poverty)
* Peter Kolba (consumer protection activist, who wants to legalize pot)
* Sebastian Bohrn-Mena (child of refugees from Chile and animal rights activist who quit the SPÖ yesterday)

[DavidB.]

A very interesting experiment. Is Pilz serious about restricting immigration? Any concrete proposals? And how does he think about the EU?

[Tender Branson]

A very interesting experiment. Is Pilz serious about restricting immigration? Any concrete proposals? And how does he think about the EU?

TBD (he'll be on Puls 4 TV next Monday and answer questions from an audience, so we'll get more on his thoughts on these issues).

---

Anyway, here's Pilz with the first 4 candidates he presented today:



Sebastian Bohrn-Mena, Maria Stern, Peter Pilz, Stephanie Cox, Peter Kolba

---

The next batch of candidates will follow on Friday.

[Tender Branson]

A very interesting experiment. Is Pilz serious about restricting immigration? Any concrete proposals? And how does he think about the EU?

From the Standard:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Pilz is worried about the social cohesion in Europe and that he wants to defend the European and Austrian homeland by more effectively spreading the wealth and incomes. He also wants to fight against right-wing and Islamist extremists to uphold democracy.

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So, I guess he'll be quite leftist on social and economic issues, push transparency and anti-corruption as issues and try to attract some center-right protest voters, but also former Greens (with Stephanie Cox).

[Tender Branson]

Uh-oh !

Anti-semitic trouble for the FPÖ:

Johannes Hübner, MP and the FPÖ-speaker for foreign affairs, was speaking at a right-wing gathering in Thüringen (Germany) last year - in which he referred to Hans Kelsen as "Hans Kohn" and "that this is a very common Jewish name". After which the right-wing audience laughed.

* Hans Kelsen is the architect of the Austrian constitution and was the target of anti-semitic writers back in the 1920s and 1930s who also smeared him with the name "Kohn".

http://derstandard.at/2000061507240/Antisemitismus-Kultusgemeinde-fordert-FPOe-zum-Ausschluss-Huebners-auf

The Austrian Jewish Community calls on Hübner to resign or the FPÖ to act. Chancellor Kern also called the comments "totally inacceptable".

Hübner just announced he's resigning from parliament and won't be on the FPÖ party list for the election:

http://derstandard.at/2000061771139/FP-Mandatar-Huebner-tritt-nicht-mehr-an

Officially, Hübner says "he doesn't want to hurt the party's election chances" ... but it's pretty clear that behind the scenes, Strache and Hofer pressured him to step down in the past week.

Excellent. Anti-semites need to be quickly removed.

[Tender Branson]

The next days and weeks will definitely be good for Pilz and his list, because he'll present a new batch of candidates on Friday (getting good publicity over the weekend). Then on Monday, he'll be invited to the summer interview on PULS 4 TV with questions from the audience, getting even more publicity. He says he'll present 20-25 main candidates in total, so this will take a while. The next months will be really interesting ... He's the Austrian version of Bernie Sanders or Melenchon, writes the German "Welt":

https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article167021693/Oesterreichischer-Bernie-Sanders-stuerzt-Gruene-in-die-Krise.html

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Does Pilz occupy the same sort of niche that Hans Peter Martin used to fill?

[Tender Branson]

Does Pilz occupy the same sort of niche that Hans Peter Martin used to fill?

The two lists are not really 100% comparable, because Martin's list focused mostly on the transparency issue in government and especially in the EU, while social issues played no role.

Pilz's list is more like a modern European Left Party that is not named "Communist" (even the ÖVP yesterday came out and said that Pilz's new list is the Austrian version of the German Left Party).

Unlike Martin, Pilz's list will put a big emphasis on spreading the wealth and income more evenly, attack big tax-evading companies, attack free trade, human rights abuses - while at the same time be more pragmatic on the issue of immigration and integration. He'll talk about the problems that exist (something the remnant-Greens won't) and present ideas how to combat enemies to the constitution and European way of life - such as Neo-Nazis, Islamists and far-left extremists.

[DavidB.]

So I take it that Pilz does not have any concrete proposals to limit immigration?