Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15

[Tender Branson]

So I take it that Pilz does not have any concrete proposals to limit immigration?

Concrete ones ? Not yet. This will be specified in the coming months.

From what I've read about their launch press conference yesterday, he said something that is similar to Kern's 7 proposals to limit the migration flow from Africa, while calling the creation of migrant centers in Libya (in which they could file for asylum in Europe) "inhumane" under current conditions:

https://spoe.at/story/bundeskanzler-kern-kontrolle-ueber-migration-zurueckgewinnen

His migrant speaker Stephanie Cox said in an interview today that for her it's most important to properly integrate refugees that are already here by giving them more work permits in apprenticeships. And that the incoming refugees need to be re-distributed throughout Europe to put the pressure off South Tyrol and Italy.

http://derstandard.at/2000061782151/Pilz-Kandidatin-Cox-Es-reicht-nicht-ein-Alles-wird-gut

[Tender Branson]

On Saturday, we can expect the new monthly Profil magazine poll by Unique Research.

The poll is conducted between Monday and Friday, so a first impression of Pilz should be included because he launched the list on Tuesday.

[Tender Branson]

Surprisingly, SPÖ-Chancellor Kern's campaign manager stepped down today, citing private reasons.

[Tender Branson]

Emmanuel Macron now wants to set up asylum hotspots in Libya and Sebastian Kurz applauds and pledges money to support it ... (Kurz has been talking for months about closing the Med route by setting up the centers in Libya, where migrants can file for asylum without coming to Europe on their own).



http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-40738199

http://derstandard.at/2000061871926/Macron-will-noch-heuer-Fluechtlings-Hotspots-in-Libyen

[Tender Branson]

Pilz will present more candidates today at 10.30 during a press conference.

[Tender Branson]

Pilz will present more candidates today at 10.30 during a press conference.

Pilz presented 3 other main candidates today, incl. 2 sitting Green MPs who are defecting to Pilz and one sitting SPÖ-MP who's running for his list:



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This further means that SPÖ and ÖVP now have the same number of MPs in parliament for the remaining 3 months, because the number of Independents has grown to 8.

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Meanwhile, Sebastian Kurz presented Kira Grünberg as a candidate today (for 10th on the ÖVP-list).

Grünberg is a former pole-vaulter, who had a catastrophic accident during training which left her a tetraplegic in a wheelchair.

[TheSaint250]

Will Pilz create his own party, or will any candidates who win be officially registered as independents in parliament?

[Tender Branson]

Will Pilz create his own party, or will any candidates who win be officially registered as independents in parliament?

Pilz has already launched his own list on Tuesday, but not a "party" as he specifically said. The word "party" is very baaad these days in Austrian politics. Everyone calls their "party" either a "list" or a "movement" ...

And, yes, every candidate who gets elected will be part of the Pilz List - not Independents. Some of Pilz's candidates (like himself) are just independent in the outgoing parliament ...

[TheSaint250]

Will Pilz create his own party, or will any candidates who win be officially registered as independents in parliament?

Pilz has already launched his own list on Tuesday, but not a "party" as he specifically said. The word "party" is very baaad these days in Austrian politics. Everyone calls their "party" either a "list" or a "movement" ...

And, yes, every candidate who gets elected will be part of the Pilz List - not Independents. Some of Pilz's candidates (like himself) are just independent in the outgoing parliament ...

Ok.

Also, as of now, how many of Pilz's candidates (including Pilz himself) have a better-than-decent chance of winning seats?

[Tender Branson]

Will Pilz create his own party, or will any candidates who win be officially registered as independents in parliament?

Pilz has already launched his own list on Tuesday, but not a "party" as he specifically said. The word "party" is very baaad these days in Austrian politics. Everyone calls their "party" either a "list" or a "movement" ...

And, yes, every candidate who gets elected will be part of the Pilz List - not Independents. Some of Pilz's candidates (like himself) are just independent in the outgoing parliament ...

Ok.

Also, as of now, how many of Pilz's candidates (including Pilz himself) have a better-than-decent chance of winning seats?

Well, if we assume that Pilz's list gets just barely over the 4% threshold, then they would get 8 out of the 183 seats in parliament. If he gets 10%, this would rise to 18 seats.

[TheSaint250]

Will Pilz create his own party, or will any candidates who win be officially registered as independents in parliament?

Pilz has already launched his own list on Tuesday, but not a "party" as he specifically said. The word "party" is very baaad these days in Austrian politics. Everyone calls their "party" either a "list" or a "movement" ...

And, yes, every candidate who gets elected will be part of the Pilz List - not Independents. Some of Pilz's candidates (like himself) are just independent in the outgoing parliament ...

Ok.

Also, as of now, how many of Pilz's candidates (including Pilz himself) have a better-than-decent chance of winning seats?

Well, if we assume that Pilz's list gets just barely over the 4% threshold, then they would get 8 out of the 183 seats in parliament. If he gets 10%, this would rise to 18 seats.

Ah. Thanks!

[Tender Branson]

The monthly "Profil" magazine poll is out (conducted between July 24-27):

33% ÖVP (+9)
26% SPÖ (-1)
22% FPÖ (+1.5)
  7% Greens (-5.5)
  6% NEOS (+1)
  5% Pilz (+5)
  1% Others (-10)

Direct vote for Chancellor:

37% Kurz (ÖVP)
25% Kern (SPÖ-incumbent)
11% Strache (FPÖ)
  4% Pilz
  2% Lunacek (Greens)
  2% Strolz (NEOS)
19% Other/None of them

Here's the "Profil" polling trend over the past 2 years:



https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-kurz-vorsprung-8247741

[Tender Branson]

Another indicator that the ÖVP is miles ahead and on their way to easily win the election:

They have collected donations worth of 800.000€ during July.

The SPÖ: 16.000€

(donations are usually meaningless though in Austrian politics, because Austrian parties have one of Europe's most generous public financing, with 250 Mio. € spent on parties each year.)

[mgop]

ovp can't win elections. they can have most seats but they still have to form a coalition with either spo or fpo.

[Tender Branson]

Which coalition do Austrian voters prefer after the election (OGM/Kurier poll) ?



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ÖVP- and FPÖ-voters strongly prefer a coalition with the other party.

Among SPÖ-voters: 40% want the Grand Coalition, 30% SPÖ/Greens/NEOS, 14% want SPÖ/FPÖ

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/tuerkis-blaue-liaison-laut-umfrage-klarer-favorit-der-oesterreicher/277.877.277

[Tender Branson]

Tonight, Peter Pilz will be interviewed about his new list on PULS 4 TV. There will also be an audience once again, asking questions. The interview will be watched by a representative sample of voters and the results of the OGM poll will be shown afterwards.

So far, Kurz had by far the best performance in the interviews (63-70% found him convincing), followed by Kern (50%) and Strache (slightly below 50%). Strolz (NEOS) convinced some 1/3 of voters and Lunacek (Greens) did worst with only a quarter of voters.

[Tender Branson]

Pilz did really well in the interview yesterday, convincing 33% of representative debate watchers. More than 40% said he had leadership skills.



The first segment of the interview was about his split with the Greens (he's leaving behind many good friends, he said).

He was very appealing and convincing for leftist voters IMO, when he warned of another Black-Blue coalition. Then he talked about classical left-wing issues such as introducing a 35-hour work week instead of the current 38-43 hour week. One SJW-woman on his team even favours a 30-hour week btw. Then he talked about an inheritance tax, starting at 500.000€ and how the needs-based mandatory minimum welfare cuts by ÖVP-FPÖ would not just hurt foreigners, but also Austrian families. Then he talked about dictator Erdogan and his tentacles in Austrian society (funding of Islamic kindergartens, trying to set up a party here etc.) and how he wants to combat it - along with Muslim extremism and Right-wing extremism in general. Then he talked about the "forgotten people" that the Greens used to ignore: such as factory workers, farmers and single-moms. And how he wants to get these people to the polls again and vote for him. He said "no person in Austria is born as an FPÖ- or protest voter".

In the end, PULS 4 showed a picture of Pilz and "his wife", after which Pilz said:

"That's not my wife !"

... and indeed, the woman shown is actually a "Kurier" newspaper journalist.

The audience broke out in laughter

[Tender Branson]

Pilz is a huuuge danger to the SPÖ and Greens and to a much smaller degree to the FPÖ and NEOS, while being no threat to the ÖVP - as the post-debate OGM poll showed:

Pilz convinced half of SPÖ-voters and Green voters and 40% of NEOS-voters.

Among FPÖ-voters, he convinced 19%. Among ÖVP-voters, just 12%.

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I think the SPÖ can bury their chances of coming first in the election. Especially with 4 left-wing parties competing now (SPÖ, Greens, Pilz, KPÖ+).

[Tender Branson]

Chancellor Kern (SPÖ), now back again from a 2-week long vacation in Ibiza (Spain), will present the SPÖ campaign program on Tursday at an event in Vienna.

It is based on his "Plan A" from January and will include a few more in-depth chapters such as pensions, Europe, migration etc. - on top of the business/education-heavy version in January. It will have 209 pages.

Kern will definitely have a lot to do in the next months if he wants to rescue the failing SPÖ-campaign ...

[Tender Branson]

I have coined a new phrase for the likely next government => ÖVP-FPÖ:

"The Night King coalition: Winter is coming !"



Fits the new party colours of the ÖVP and the FPÖ.

[Tender Branson]

Chancellor Kern delivered cold drinks to construction workers today.

It has some 100°F in Vienna these days.



Not a bad idea. Better than Kern delivering pizza to middle-class families a few months ago (because later it turned out that it was staged).

[mvd10]

Pils, pils alleen nog maar pils! (ironically I don't actually drink, but I still do all the stupid things people do when they're drunk, and I sang about beer in an airport once so I suppose that counts).

So Pilz is trying to capture the mythical sweet spot of culturally conservative social democrats? The new fiscally conservative socially liberal™ (in the sense that they might exist but decide they don't care about the issues their party is out of touch with them and still vote for their current party at the end of the day)? But I guess there is more potential for what Pilz is trying because culturally conservative social democrats might actually exist outside the internet. Pilz is doing a lot better than Monasch (Dutch politician who tried something similar and got 0.2% or something like that) and I also was wrong about there being no space for a right-wing party inbetween the centre-right and the PVV in the Netherlands so we'll see. Could Pilz try to bring SPÖ and FPÖ together?

[Tender Branson]

A mini-party convention for the SPÖ will take place today, in which Kern will try to re-start the failing SPÖ-campaign, by giving a speech.

Sebastian Kurz is in Croatia for vacation.

And the FPÖ's struggling internally again because Martin Graf, a former 3rd President of Parliament, is planning a comeback as an MP. (Graf was once an influential FPÖ politician from the far-right OLYMPIA fraternity, but in 2012 deceived an old lady by "stealing" her assets, which she invested in his foundation. After which he announced that he would not run again in the 2013 election).

This controversy just comes a few weeks after the Hübner resignation, which was already bad for the FPÖ.

[Tender Branson]

Chancellor Kern (SPÖ) just delivered a very powerful, Obama-style 45-minute long speech. It had shades of class-warfare ("Take what you deserve !"). After he finished, he got standing ovations from the SPÖ-delegates.



Kern's a good guy himself, but I still believe he's riding a dying horse ...

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Which leads us to the new Research Affairs poll out today. It shows the ÖVP widening its lead to a record 11 points:



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Liste-Kurz-zieht-allen-davon/293675773

[TheSaint250]

FPÖ seems to have slipped in their polls to being tied with SPÖ