Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15

[Tender Branson]

The SPÖ presented their first poster campaign today, on which a determined-looking Kern says:

"Take what you deserve !"

... take the 200.000 jobs that Kern will create in the next 5 years.

... take the tax cuts that Kern will pass in the next 5 years.

... take the generous pension increases that Kern promises will come.

[Tender Branson]

I recently answered a 15-minute online poll @ Gallup's Online Panel about Austria's political situation right now and several other questions about my economic situation and how the country's economy will change over the next years etc.

I mailed Gallup's Online Panel and they said that this was a client poll from IGF, which should be out this weekend.

Should be interesting, because questions also involved the Oct. 15 election.

[Tender Branson]

FPÖ seems to have slipped in their polls to being tied with SPÖ

Yes.

And their prospects won't get much better I guess in the next months.

With Pilz and possibly G!LT, there will be 2 lists that are hunting potential FPÖ- and protest voters. I seriously believe that the FPÖ will end up around 18-22% in this election, basically unchanged from their 2013 results. Down from 35% in the polls last year.

Anyway, Strache (back from vacation) said today that the party will campaign on "Austria(ns) first !" (... on the labour market, for apartments etc.) and that he wants Interior Minister Sobotka to remove Turks with illegal dual citizenships from the voter list.

[TheSaint250]

Is Kurz aiming for an ÖVP-FPÖ coalition?

[Tender Branson]

Is Kurz aiming for an ÖVP-FPÖ coalition?

I guess he is.

And the higher the result for the ÖVP and the more FPÖ-voters he can attract, the better his position will be within the coalition (especially if the FPÖ fails to gain compared with the 20.5% in 2013 - or even loses ground).

[Kamala]

If its possible, could Kurz support an ÖVP-Die Grünen-NEOS coalition?

[Tender Branson]

If its possible, could Kurz support an ÖVP-Die Grünen-NEOS coalition?

Can almost be ruled out. Kurz has said that he prefers a solid coalition with only 2 parties because one with 3 or 4 would be really unstable.

Since ÖVP and SPÖ don't get along anymore, we know where this is heading to: Kurz wants the ÖVP to get a significant amount of FPÖ-voters so that he can double up the FPÖ in a coalition and dictate them his demands.

[Tender Branson]

New Market poll for the "Standard" (n=800, July 31-August 3):

33% ÖVP
25% SPÖ
24% FPÖ
  7% Greens
  5% NEOS
  4% Pilz
  2% Others

Who will win the election ?

54% the ÖVP
15% the SPÖ
10% the FPÖ

Do you think the election outcome is already a sure thing, or can things still change ?

19% Yes
75% No

http://derstandard.at/2000062283415/Umfrage-Nur-15-Prozent-glauben-an-einen-Wahlsieg-der-SPOe

[TheSaint250]

Pilz isn't getting as much support as I would've thought.  I expected him to be polling about NEOS.  Does he still have lots of room to improve?

[Tender Branson]

Pilz isn't getting as much support as I would've thought.  I expected him to be polling about NEOS.  Does he still have lots of room to improve?

Everything is possible. The polls could be off by a lot. Pilz could get the support of SPÖ and FPÖ-voters on election day. Or the other way around: The small parties could all get crushed by the coming 3-way fight for first place.

[TheSaint250]

Pilz isn't getting as much support as I would've thought.  I expected him to be polling about NEOS.  Does he still have lots of room to improve?

Everything is possible. The polls could be off by a lot. Pilz could get the support of SPÖ and FPÖ-voters on election day. Or the other way around: The small parties could all get crushed by the coming 3-way fight for first place.

Ok thanks

Do you personally expect any unforeseen surprises on election day?

[Tender Branson]

A new poll for Vienna has shocking results:



The ÖVP would win, for the first time ever.

Changes compared with the 2013 Vienna results:

ÖVP: +13.5%
SPÖ: -4.6%
FPÖ: -1.6%
Greens: -8.4%
NEOS: +0.4%
Pilz: +7.0%
G!LT: +3.0%
Others: -9.3%

[Tender Branson]

As journalist Armin Wolf from the public broadcaster ORF noted today, the Vienna "poll" is virtually a joke poll.

Why ?

It's only a subsample of the Austria-wide Research Affairs poll I posted earlier, which surveyed 600 people.

For Vienna, that would only amount to 100 people questioned => HUGE margin of error !

[Tender Branson]

Chancellor Kern decided to be really folksy today and visited the Villach Fair in Carinthia, wearing a traditional Lederhosen.





The same trick with traditional clothing (Lederhosen and Co.) was already used by Van der Bellen, who also appeared at rural events to win support there.

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Meanwhile, Kurz called for significantly tougher penalties for violent criminals today (for example for sex offenders against women and children).

[Tender Branson]

Barbara Rosenkranz, failed FPÖ-candidate for President in 2010, has quit the FPÖ today and announced she will run for Karl Schnell's FPÖ-splinter group in the election (the FLÖ).

Rosenkranz, who is basically a Nazi (called "Reich Mother", because she has 10 children and all with very Germanic names), got 15% of the vote in 2010. Before the election, she was asked about the existence of gas chambers during WW2 - but she first gave an inconclusive answer. After the media fully attacked her, she declared that gas chambers existed.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barbara_Rosenkranz

http://derstandard.at/2000062368862/Barbara-Rosenkranz-verlaesst-die-FPOe-und-tritt-fuer-Karl-Schnell

[Tender Branson]

Barbara Rosenkranz, failed FPÖ-candidate for President in 2010, has quit the FPÖ today and announced she will run for Karl Schnell's FPÖ-splinter group in the election (the FLÖ).

Rosenkranz, who is basically a Nazi (called "Reich Mother", because she has 10 children and all with very Germanic names), got 15% of the vote in 2010. Before the election, she was asked about the existence of gas chambers during WW2 - but she first gave an inconclusive answer. After the media fully attacked her, she declared that gas chambers existed.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barbara_Rosenkranz

http://derstandard.at/2000062368862/Barbara-Rosenkranz-verlaesst-die-FPOe-und-tritt-fuer-Karl-Schnell

Along with Rosenkranz, who's a current MP, 2 other current Team Stronach MPs (Schenk and Hagen) will also join the Schnell-list. That means the Schnell-list already has 5 current MPs on board.

Interesting ... maybe the FLÖ will manage to get more than 0.5% in the election and cost the FPÖ a couple of seats.

[TheSaint250]

So does this mean FLÖ is becoming more right-wing than FPÖ?

[Tender Branson]

So does this mean FLÖ is becoming more right-wing than FPÖ?

No, they are basically the same. The one is the official FPÖ 1 and the other is the FPÖ 2.

Not even a thin piece of paper would fit in between if it weren't for the intrigues that led to Schnell's FLÖ splinter party.

[Tender Branson]

A new IGF poll for the "Salzburger Nachrichten" newspaper shows a few really interesting trends in the City of Salzburg:



The poll on the left is only for the municipal elections in 2019 (therefore meaningless at this point).

The important one is the poll on the right: "How would the City of Salzburg vote on Oct. 15 ?"

The Kurz-ÖVP is gaining a lot, the SPÖ also gains slightly. List Pilz would make it into parliament.

The FPÖ loses slightly. The Greens lose a lot. NEOS would be kinda weak. The FPS/FLÖ would only get a tiny share.

http://www.salzburg.com/nachrichten/salzburg/politik/sn/artikel/sn-umfrage-stadt-oevp-erlebt-sommerliches-stimmungshoch-259700

[Tender Branson]

More Nazi problems for the FPÖ ...

Siegfried Kampl, a mayor in Carinthia, who was expelled a few years ago from the FPÖ for Nazi-comments and who was quietly re-admitted by the party a few months ago, was about to be expelled again yesterday after it became public. Kampl was quicker though, leaving the FPÖ before he got expelled.

Kampl once called Wehrmacht-deserters "comrade-killers" and "I condemn the crimes the Nazis did, but I do not condemn National-Socialism".

The people of his Carinthian town still re-elected him mayor after the comments ...

http://derstandard.at/2000062339856/FPOe-unternimmt-neuen-Anlauf-fuer-Kampl-Ausschluss

[Tender Branson]

Parts of Austria have been hit by signifcant floods after the heavy thunderstorms and heatwave recently.

Both Kern and Kurz have been in the disaster areas to thank the helpers and said the emergency fund will be available to those affected.



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Meanwhile, NEOS-leader Strolz was invited to the ORF's "Summer Interviews" yesterday evening where he talked about his plans etc., incl. 1000 European city partnerships with North-African cities, more funding for them and Libyan coastguard and leasing land for 99 years in several North-African countries to build asylum centres, where asylum cases can be processed (not in Libya though). Strolz also wants the subject "coding" in elementary schools.

[Tender Branson]

An internal SPÖ-poll for Vienna by IFES has the party clearly ahead there for the Oct. 15 election:

34% SPÖ (+2% compared with 2013 election)
23% FPÖ (+3%)
22% ÖVP (+8%)
  8% Greens (-8%)
  6% NEOS (-2%)
  5% Pilz (+5%)
  2% Others

The poll was conducted July 13-25 among 800 people aged 16+, online and by phone, MoE = 3.7%

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/spoe-umfrage-wien-fest-in-roter-hand/279.600.993

[Tender Branson]

Signature collection for comedian Roland Düringer's "G!LT" list is running pretty smoothly so far:

2600 have to be collected until next Friday, and there are 1900 in already.

Lower Austria is already done, signatures for Vienna and Vorarlberg are almost completed. Only Salzburg, Styria and Carinthia are lagging at this point, but I guess if they focus on these states next week, they will be on the ballot in all 9 states.

The KPÖ+ list will likely be on the ballot too in all states, meaning there are likely 9 parties on the ballot in every state.

Maybe a few more in individual states (CPÖ, the migrant NBZ party in Vorarlberg and Vienna etc.)

[Tender Branson]

As of today, the Team Stronach is officially dead.

Yesterday, they still had 6 MPs in parliament. Today, party-leader Robert Lugar and Martina Schenk quit the parliamentary group. 5 MPs are needed for an official parliamentary group though.

Therefore, the TS parliamentary group does not exist any longer and they will be kicked out of any possible investigation committees in the next 3 months until the new parliament starts in November.

The number of Independent MPs in the Austrian parliament has now risen to 15.

http://derstandard.at/2000062469062/Team-Stronach-verliert-Klubstatus

[TheSaint250]

As of today, the Team Stronach is officially dead.

Yesterday, they still had 6 MPs in parliament. Today, party-leader Robert Lugar and Martina Schenk quit the parliamentary group. 5 MPs are needed for an official parliamentary group though.

Therefore, the TS parliamentary group does not exist any longer and they will be kicked out of any possible investigation committees in the next 3 months until the new parliament starts in November.

The number of Independent MPs in the Austrian parliament has now risen to 15.

http://derstandard.at/2000062469062/Team-Stronach-verliert-Klubstatus

Noooooo

Oh well Will they join another party at a later time?