Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15

[Tender Branson]

As of today, the Team Stronach is officially dead.

Yesterday, they still had 6 MPs in parliament. Today, party-leader Robert Lugar and Martina Schenk quit the parliamentary group. 5 MPs are needed for an official parliamentary group though.

Therefore, the TS parliamentary group does not exist any longer and they will be kicked out of any possible investigation committees in the next 3 months until the new parliament starts in November.

The number of Independent MPs in the Austrian parliament has now risen to 15.

http://derstandard.at/2000062469062/Team-Stronach-verliert-Klubstatus

Noooooo

Oh well Will they join another party at a later time?

Some already have, others will simply retire from politics and go back to private sector work.

[Tender Branson]

Austria's population figures for July 1, 2017 are out:

8.794.000 (+ 57.000 compared with a year ago, or +0.7%)

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While the number of Austrian citizens dropped by 5.000 over the past year, foreigners increased by 62.000 (of which EU/EFTA-citizens increased by 41.000 and non-EU/EFTA-citizens increased by 21.000)

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The overall growth rate is down from 1.4% during 2015 and 0.9% last year. This is mostly because non-EU/EFTA growth is down by a lot (fewer Syrians, Iraqis etc. coming), while EU/EFTA-growth remains quite high. Austria is still a big draw for EU-citizens.

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The proportion of foreigners among the total population is 16% now. 25% have a migrant background (55% in Vienna).

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It is very likely that Austria will pass 9 million in the 2021 Census, up from 8.4 million in the 2011 Census.

Link

[Tender Branson]

Robert Lugar (ex-TS) switches to the FPÖ (where he originally came from).

Martina Schenk (ex-TS) switches to the FLÖ to become frontrunner in Styria.

[Tender Branson]

When you think the Greens cannot drop even further in the polls:



"Embarrassing: Greens use diesel-van for campaign tour."

[Tender Branson]

Signatures for comedian Roland Düringer's "G!LT" list are coming in at a hefty pace.

With one week to go for signature collecting, G!LT has enough signatures in 6/9 states and is almost done in the other 3 states (they should have enough on Monday or Tuesday).

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The Socialist Left Party has enough signatures for Upper Austria, while Vienna looks almost done.

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The Men's Party has roughly half of the signatures in all states. It's unlikely they are on the ballot.

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The CPÖ also has only half of the signatures yet.

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No word for KPÖ+ (Communists + Young Greens), but the KPÖ always managed to get on every ballot.

[Tender Branson]

The party "Homeless in Politics" (ODP) apparently has 470/500 signatures in Vienna so far.

It's a party that wants a greater focus on homeless people and their needs in parliament.

[Tender Branson]

The ÖVP, List PePi and the FLÖ have all presented new candidates in recent days:

* The ÖVP has presented a top mathematician and a former Miss Austria

* Peter Pilz has presented a top bio-chemist and an IT specialist

* The FLÖ has presented a doctor, a former BZÖ-politician and the vice-mayor of Braunau (ex-FPÖ)

[Tender Branson]

Chancellor Kern (SPÖ) out with the first TV ad:





https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=itnGPZpUygM

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[Tender Branson]

Strache (FPÖ) has virtually given up on winning the election.

At a press conference yesterday (where he presented former TS-leader Robert Lugar as a candidate for 8th on their list) he said that he expects a tough fight for 2nd place with the SPÖ and that everything above 20.5% in 2013 is a "win".

http://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5267385/Nationalratswahl_Strache-erwartet-KopfanKopfRennen-mit-SPOe

[Tender Branson]

A big new study of Austrian Muslims, conducted by the Danube University in Krems, shows disturbing results.

The study is based on 1129 Muslims in Austria, broken down by subgroups such as Turks, Bosnians, Chechens, Afghans, Somalis, Iraqis, Iranians etc.

http://www.heute.at/politik/news/story/FP--fordert--Heimatschutz-und-Leitkultur--Minister-41800922

"It should not be allowed to make jokes about Islam in public"

For example: By a 87-10 margin, Somalis strongly or somewhat agree.



"Jews have too much power and influence in the world"



"Is the Austrian rule of law suited for the needs of Muslims, or should there be Islamic Law ?"



"Are you willing to fight and die for Islam ?"



"Are you a very strong or strong Muslim ?"



"It's important for me that my partner is a Muslim too"

[Tender Branson]

A new GfK poll (conducted July 31-August 8, n=1.000) shows that voting intentions have stabilized:



https://kurier.at/politik/inland/wahlkampf-vorsprung-von-sebastian-kurz-verfestigt-sich/280.250.122

[Tender Branson]

The polls might start to change a bit after next week when the signature collection period is over and pollsters start to include G!LT, the KPÖ+ platform, the FLÖ, CPÖ etc. as a choice in their polls.

[Tender Branson]

BREAKING NEWS:

The chief campaign strategist for Chancellor Kern, an Israeli named Tal Silberstein, has been arrested today by Israeli police because of money-laundering, document fraud and corruption charges.

Another 4 people were also arrested, among them Israeli billionaire Beny Steinmetz.

The Israeli, Romanian, Swiss police and the FBI were involved in the arrests.

http://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/1.806776

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-israel-steinmetz-idUSKCN1AU0PS?il=0

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Kerns-Berater-Tal-Silberstein-verhaftet/294973563

This is a major blow for the Chancellor (although the allegations against Silberstein have been known for a while).

Silberstein is also resonsible for Kern's "pizza delivery" stunt and his new slogan "Take what you deserve !" on the recent campaign posters.

It seems Silberstein took the slogan too literally ...

[Tender Branson]

Austrian Social Democrats Cut Ties With Tal Silberstein, Israeli Political Adviser Linked to Beny Steinmetz



Austria’s Social Democratic Party has cut ties with Tal Silberstein, an Israeli political adviser detained Monday alongside Israeli billionaire Beny Steinmetz and four other businessmen amid suspicions of using fake contracts to launder money.

“Tal Silberstein advised the election campaign for the Social Democratic Party of Austria, and did social science research in the field of public opinion polling,” the Austrian APA-OTS news agency quoted the party’s campaign manager, Georg Niedermühlbichler, as saying. “The SPÖ is ceasing cooperation with Silberstein, effective immediately.”

Israeli media reported in December that Steinmetz was suspected of bribing the former leader of Guinea and his wife for rights to mine at the Simandou range, one of the world's largest sources of iron ore. Steinmetz's company BSGR previously had its mining license revoked in Guinea because of corruption charges.

In 2015, Romanian media reported that Steinmetz, former Yitzhak Rabin Chief of Staff Shimon Sheves and Silberstein, a former adviser to Ehud Barak and Ehud Olmert, were suspected of involvement in illicit real estate deals that cost the Romanian government more than $160 million.

Earlier Monday, Steinmetz and the four other businessmen were detained and questioned under caution, meaning they might be charged with a crime.

http://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/1.806828

[Tender Branson]

The ÖVP is "appalled" by the arrest of Silberstein for money-laundering, who they call a "mastermind" for the SPÖ and calls on the SPÖ for 100% transparency on the issue.

The FPÖ calls on Kern to resign following the arrest, because it has been known since 2015 that Silberstein is under investigation by the Romanians and Israelis and they still kept him on their payroll as a consultant.

http://www.krone.at/oesterreich/kerns-wahlkampfberater-silberstein-verhaftet-geldwaescheverdacht-story-583434

[Tender Branson]

As of today, G!LT is officially on the ballot in all 9 states.

The popular Austrian comedian Roland Düringer has announced he wants to run in the Oct. election with a bizarre new list called "Gilt !" ("Your voice counts !" or "Your vote counts !").



It's basically some sort of art or satire project, not a list with an actual party programme. Düringer stated that he wants to increase turnout and give non-voters and voters who vote invalid a voice.

Currently, non-voters or spoilt votes do not result in seats in parliament - yet not casting a vote or voting invalid is also a choice. It means that you either don't care, are disgusted with politics etc.

Düringer wants these voters to be accounted for and represented in parliament and wants to place stuffed animals (rather than human MPs) on elected "MPs" seats ...



It would also change the vote share of other parties and composition of parliament. For example, if the "non-voter" party didn't run, the ÖVP would get - let's say - 33%.

But if the "Gilt !" party attracts some 5 or 10%, the ÖVP share would drop to 30 or below and there would be some 9-18 stuffed animals as MPs in parliament.

[Tender Branson]

Together with the federal election on Oct. 15, voters in the state of Tyrol will also vote on the "Winter Olympics 2026" application for Innsbruck.

This would be the 3rd time that the Winter Olympics are held in Innsbruck, after 1964 and 1976. 2026 would be the 50th anniversary of the second games.

The Tyrol-ÖVP is in favour of the project, as is the independent mayor of the city of Innsbruck (Christine Oppitz-Plörer).

The SPÖ, Greens and FPÖ are cautiously in favour of the Olympics - but only if the costs are low and the games are ecological and sustainable.

Some smaller parties are opposed.



The ballot question (which could drive up the traditionally lower turnout in Tyrol):

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According to the latest polls, Tyrolian voters are leaning moderately in favour of the 2026 Winter Olympics:

Link

Those polled say that potential benefits are strengthening the (already HUGE) tourism and city/state image and more investments into infrastructure, while negatives include higher restaurant prices, threat of crime/attacks and environmental concerns.

Link

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Additionally, the city of Krems in Lower Austria will have municipal elections on Oct. 15 together with the federal elections.

[Tender Branson]

The Tal Silberstein arrest scandal just gets worse and worse for Chancellor Kern and the SPÖ ...

* The ÖVP and FPÖ keep on hitting the SPÖ because of it (Greens and NEOS remain quiet, because Silberstein once worked for NEOS too)

* The left-wing "Standard" newspaper is out with a hard-hitting editorial against Kern

* A new poll shows 40% of Austrians want Kern to step down and 3/4 say the affair hurts the SPÖ

* The "Krone" says that the party remains "stunned" by the fallout and crisis meetings took place

* It remains unclear if the SPÖ will continue to use their Silberstein-invented new slogan on posters and ads: "Take what you are entitled to !" - after the Israeli got busted for corruption and money-laundering including copper mines in Guinea ...

Picture of the busted Israeli campaign strategist for the SPÖ:

[Tender Branson]

Chancellor Kern is brushing the Silberstein scandal off:

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Kern-kontert-Die-Kirche-im-Dorf-lassen/295167061

In one week, he will meet French President Macron in Salzburg (together with the Czech and Slovak PMs) and talk about important issues.

The slogan "Take what you are entitled to !" will also remain and thousands of campaign posters will be up all over the country this week.

[Tender Branson]

KPÖ+ (Communists & Young Greens) have collected more than 2600 signatures and will be the 9th party on the ballot in all 9 states.

http://orf.at/#/stories/2403381

[Tender Branson]

The "Socialist Left Party" now has enough signatures for the Vienna and Upper Austria ballot.

The "Homeless in Politics" party has enough signatures for Vienna.

So there's going to be at least 11 parties on the ballot in Vienna, 10 in Upper Austria and 9 in the other states.

Maybe a few more after the Friday deadline.

[Tender Branson]

This week probably cannot get much worse for the SPÖ and much better for the ÖVP ...

The ÖVP announced today that the former popular President of the Court of Audit, Josef Moser (a liberal to moderate FPÖ politician), will join the Kurz-ÖVP and be ranked 3rd on their federal list.

http://derstandard.at/2000062734764/Kurz-holt-sich-auch-Ex-Rechnungshofchef-Josef-Moser-ins-Team

[Tender Branson]

Chancellor Kern (SPÖ) out with a new 4-minute video, in which he apologizes to the Austrian voters about their former Israeli adviser Tal Silberstein (who recently got arrested for money laundering and corruption). Kern also said he should have fired him much earlier.

Then he goes on to attack the ÖVP for launching a "dirty campaign" against the SPÖ, having no real plan for the future of the country, being aided by shady donations from big business themselves and being responsible for the biggest corruption cases in Austrian history (Eurofighter jets, HYPO bank). He says that he'll highlight this over the next 2 months in the debates.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0w7ZpEj5J-c

This speech to Austrian voters reminds me of Obama's speech after the Rev. Wright scandal (although I guess Kern won't be as successful as Obama was after the speech and actually win the election). Still a nice try by Kern to get the campaign back on track.

[Tender Branson]

New Research Affairs poll for Ö24:



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Silberstein-Krimi-FPOe-wieder-auf-Platz-2/295256779

[Tender Branson]

About 9% of Austria's 6.4 million eligible voters have a migration background.

Based on all eligible voters:

91.0% are Austrians without a migration background
  3.5% are Austrians with a EU-27 or EFTA background
  2.5% are Austrians with a former Yugoslav background (excl. Slovenia)
  1.5% are Austrians with a Turkish background
  1.5% are Austrians with another migration background

The share is highest in Vienna, with 20% of voters having a migration background and lowest in Carinthia with 4%.

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Of course, these numbers exclude the 1.4 million foreign citizens in Austria - who have no voting rights at all.

If foreigners were allowed to vote as well, the number of eligible voters would increase from 6.4 to 7.5 million (some 1.1 out of the 1.4 million foreigners are above 16).

The number of voters with a migration background would increase from 0.6 to 1.7 million, or 23% of all eligible voters.