Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15

[Tender Branson]

Good numbers from the economy:

The Austrian National Bank updated their GDP growth forecast to +2.75% for this year, with the economy growing by +2.9% in the 3rd quarter.

The Austrian labour market created 80.000 new jobs over the past year (+2%), while unemployment (which is still high in Austrian terms) decreased by 15.000 people.

https://www.oenb.at/Geldpolitik/Konjunktur/prognosen-fuer-oesterreich/oenb-konjunkturindikator.html

Not sure though if Kern can convert these numbers into votes ...

[Tender Branson]

Let's assume I'm voting for the SPÖ, this is how my preference voting would work:

* Federal preference vote: Michaela Schmidt (*1983, from Salzburg, unionist)

* State preference vote: Sarah Hirschbichler (*1990, from Saalfelden, radiologic technologist)

* Electoral district preference vote: Susanne Karlsböck (*1982, from Kaprun, doctor)



Hirschbichler to the left of Chancellor Kern, Karlsböck to the right.



Schmidt is the 2nd from the right. The two on the left are already SPÖ-MPs in the Austrian Parliament.

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Preference voting is (sadly) extremely meaningless in Austria, because nobody really knows about it and virtually nobody uses preference voting. I always find it funny.

[Tender Branson]

Kern (SPÖ) vs. Strache (FPÖ) live-debate right now on ORF radio:

http://oe1.orf.at/player/live

Kurz (ÖVP) pulled out of the debate, because he's a pussy ...

[Tender Branson]

On Friday, the final number of eligible voters should be out (6.4 million, +/- a few thousand).

Next week, the Ministry of Interior will start sending info folders to every household about the election, to drive up turnout. Ballots are already printed right now and will be sent out starting next week to those who requested one.

The ÖVP has collected a list of upcoming debates and there are some 60 (!) between today and election day. And this list does not even include all debates (the one in the Ö1 radio today was missing for example).

Link

[Tender Branson]

SPÖ campaign kickoff event right now.

Chancellor Kern speaking right now:

http://extern.spw.at/stream

"Kurz already counts his chicken before they are hatched."

[Tender Branson]

Weekly Ö24 poll shows Kern gaining and the Greens losing:

[Kringla Heimsins]

Kurz looks even more insufferable than Macron.

[Tender Branson]

FPÖ and Greens out with new poster campaigns today ...

Let's start with the FPÖ:

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Greens:

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* The word "Miet-Hai" in German means someone who charges too much for rent.

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[Tender Branson]

Who has the longest - not penis - but campaign bus in this election ?

Kern's bus: 13.25 meters



Kurz's bus: 12.30 meters



Strache's bus: 14.30 meters



Strache wins.

[Tender Branson]

After backlash, Austria halts construction of million € anti-terror wall around the chancellor’s building

The Austrian government has halted the construction of an “anti-terror” wall around the chancellor’s building after a backlash from the public when it was discovered the project had cost 1.5 million euros.

The office of Austrian Chancellor Christian Kern announced Thursday that the project to build the wall would be cancelled effective immediately after a prolonged outcry. Many, like the leader of the anti-mass migration Freedom Party (FPÖ) Heinz-Christian Strache, accused the government of only “protecting themselves”, Die Presse reports.

According to the Ministry of the Interior, the plan for the wall had been drafted as early as 2014 but has become an issue due to the campaigning for the early national election which is scheduled to take place on October 15th.

Newspaper Kronen Zeitung noted that the 220-foot long wall would cost Austrian taxpayers 1.5 million euros and questioned why it was needed when the terror threat in Austria is regarded as “low”.

FPÖ leader Strache called the project hypocritical saying: “While Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán built a border fence to protect his people, the Austrian federal government has been toiling away building a wall only for themselves.”

Regarding a potential terror threat to Austria, Strache said the government must tackle “the root of the problem and not just the symptoms”.

Earlier this year, Strache said he would seek to ban radical Islamism describing it as “antagonistic to women, anti-liberal and corresponds to a fascist worldview”.

When it comes to Islamist terrorists and their sympathisers, Strache proposed to send them to “prison islands” instead of allowing them to roam free in Austria.

“If they are banished to a lonely and well-guarded island, the problem is solved for the most part, instead of waiting until they strike and massacre people,” he said.

Recent polls show the FPÖ in second place behind the Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) led by young popular Foreign Minister Sebastian Kurz.

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2017/09/08/austrian-government-stops-construction-million-euro-anti-terror-wall-public-backlash

https://www.thelocal.at/20170908/austria-halts-anti-terror-wall-plans-after-public-outcry

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Bizarre.

Some people have already suggested to fill the several feet-deep trenches that were already digged with water and crocodiles instead to prevent terror attacks against the Chancellor's building.

[Tender Branson]

Peter Pilz is taking the public broadcaster ORF to court because Pilz will not be included in the ORF debates and discussions.

The ORF argues that Pilz does not have parliamentary group status (5 MPs are needed, Pilz has 4). But Pilz's lawsuit also has the backing/signature of another Green MP, who did not join Pilz's List as a candidate.

Pilz is suing the ORF for 5 million € at the Constitutional Court, but most legal experts say that the ORF has the upper hand: After 2013, SPÖ and ÖVP passed a law that only allows the formation of a new parliamentary group right after an election. Because Pilz only has 4 MPs and because of the current law against him, he will very likely have to sit out the debates (other TV channels will have small-party debates though).

http://www.kleinezeitung.at/politik/innenpolitik/5281743/Causa-ORF_Pilz_Kann-auch-ein-20MillionenVerfahren-werden

[Tender Branson]

With 1 month to go, the SPÖ has switched into full campaign mode over the last days.

They'll have a new poster campaign out, which will move away from the more-or-less controversial slogan "Take what you deserve" from the first poster wave.

The 2nd poster wave will focus more on Chancellor Kern himself and on the economy and social issues:



"For economic success and social security. SPÖ: Change with Responsibility."

There are also other new posters with Kern and retired women and with young blue-collar workers.

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Here are also some pictures of the SPÖ's campaign kickoff event in Graz, where Kern delivered a good speech to motivate supporters and attacked ÖVP and FPÖ:

[Tender Branson]

2 other posters from the new Kern/SPÖ poster wave:

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The new posters portray Kern as a "manager of the state and the economy" (before politics, Kern was manager of the Austrian Railway).

"Change with responsibility" is a hidden line of attack against ÖVP and FPÖ, who both promise huge tax cuts and savings, but without actually telling people how to counterfinance it. Most experts think that social services would be cut. The SPÖ's plans are much more moderate in size.

[Tender Branson]

The FLÖ (= FPÖ 2.0) is also out with posters, showing the frontrunner in every state in the center, flanked by Barbara Rosenkranz (aka "Third Reich Mother") on the left and party-founder Karl Schnell (aka "Walder Frey") on the right:

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[Tender Branson]

New NEOS posters:

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[Tender Branson]

New poster campaign from "Liste PILZ":

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[Tender Branson]

There's a 3rd and 4th vote choice tool out ...

https://dietagespresse.com/wahlbarometer-welche-partei-soll-ich-waehlen

http://wahlhelfer.wienerzeitung.at/index.php?survey=15

[Tender Branson]

New OGM poll for the "Kurier" newspaper (n=805, Sept. 5-9, MoE = +/- 3.5%, via phone):



Turnout is projected to be higher than in 2013, because 74% already say they are "certain to vote". This is usually below 70% in polls at this stage with one month to go. And there's also always some people who are voting who only say they are just "very likely to vote". 76-80% turnout looks likely this year.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/sebastian-kurz-weiter-vorne-das-rennen-dahinter-total-offen/285.294.798

[Tender Branson]

These are very bad numbers and trends for the Austrian center-left ...

OGM is historically the most reliable pollster in the country and since their May poll, the SPÖ has lost 3% and the Greens have lost even 4%. The FPÖ has also lost 1%.

On the other hand, the ÖVP gained 2% since May, the new Pilz List gained 5% of course and NEOS gained 1%.

On the bright side for the center-left, only 69% of Austrians are "certain" or "somewhat certain" on their vote choice so far, meaning that 1/3 voters still have to make up their minds during the final month ...

[Tender Branson]

During my drive to the bakery today, I saw a significant amount of new Green Party posters near the roads today (ca. 1x1 meter in size), a sizeable amount of huge ÖVP-posters (ca. 5x3 meters) and the same for the FPÖ, especially near traffic circles and shopping malls. There are also some big FLÖ posters already (not surprising, because the FLÖ's "home base" is my district).

There are zero SPÖ and NEOS posters around here yet.

[Tender Branson]

Picture from the liberal NEOS campaign kickoff event:



vvv

[Tender Branson]

200 right-wingers marched in Vienna to commemorate the Sept. 12, 1683 battle at the Kahlenberg, in which the Austrian and Polish armies destroyed the invading Turks (for a second time):

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[MAINEiac4434]

There's a 3rd and 4th vote choice tool out ...

https://dietagespresse.com/wahlbarometer-welche-partei-soll-ich-waehlen

http://wahlhelfer.wienerzeitung.at/index.php?survey=15

The first one's clearly a joke. The second one gave me Liste Pilz.

[Tender Branson]

The Greens are on track to be kicked out of parliament, according to the new Market poll for the "Standard" newspaper:

33% ÖVP
26% SPÖ
24% FPÖ
  5% NEOS
  5% PILZ
  4% Greens
  3% Others

http://derstandard.at/2000063857925/Christian-Kern-und-seine-SPOe-holen-im-Wahlkampf-leicht-auf

The 4% are especially bad, because in recent parliamentary elections the Greens always overpolled by 1-3% ...

[Tender Branson]

Kurz & ÖVP out with their 2nd poster wave (the ÖVP logo is still missing):

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