Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15

[Tender Branson]

Today is Feb 1., so the monthly poll on top of the page is over.

January Poll: Will the SPÖVP coalition last until 2018 ?

75.9% Yes (22 votes)
24.1% No (7 votes)

A new poll will be posted for the month of February.

[Tender Branson]

For the February poll, titled:

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We need to assume the ban for now would include Burqas (everything covered) and Niqabs (only the eyes are visible).

The ban does not include hijabs and regular headscarves, where the full face is visible.

Also, as for the question: ski masks remain legal (for example during cold/windy weather) and are only banned at large-scale demonstrations.

Also, other religious (Jewish, Buddhist, etc.) clothing is legal as long as the face remains fully uncovered.

[Tender Branson]

SPÖ and ÖVP are already back fighting against each other, just a few days after their program update.

This time, it's about the full-face veil ban and crosses in courts and classrooms:

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http://www.thelocal.at/20170202/debate-over-cross-in-courtrooms-follows-full-veil-ban

This led the populist-right "Krone" newspaper to attack Muna Duzdar (SPÖ) for questioning the role of crosses in courtrooms and classrooms:

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http://www.krone.at/oesterreich/duzdar-beginnt-krieg-gegen-kreuz-in-klassenzimmern-spvp-friede-ade-story-551873

...

Duzdar is a non-practicing Muslim and it looks pretty obvious that the ÖVP set a trap for her and she's now tapping into it. Even though she's right ... (the coalition agreed on "religious neutrality of the state", so of course this means that not only religious clothing that covers the face gets banned, but also the crosses and other religious symbols in state buildings and by state employees).

[rob in cal]

   In the new coalition agreement there was a chart about some modest changes to Austria's income tax law, with basically the taxable earning amounts going up with inflation.  I noticed that right after the first 11,000 (now going up to 11,500)euros which is income tax free, the next 8,000 euros are taxed at 25%, and then the next tax band after that is 35%.  So a lot of income earned by middle class Austrians would get taxed at those two rates.
     Has there been much discussion among the political parties about lowering these rates, or changing the amount earned that triggers these rates?

[Tender Branson]

   In the new coalition agreement there was a chart about some modest changes to Austria's income tax law, with basically the taxable earning amounts going up with inflation.  I noticed that right after the first 11,000 (now going up to 11,500)euros which is income tax free, the next 8,000 euros are taxed at 25%, and then the next tax band after that is 35%.  So a lot of income earned by middle class Austrians would get taxed at those two rates.
     Has there been much discussion among the political parties about lowering these rates, or changing the amount earned that triggers these rates?

The tax rates have been lowered just last year, as part of an income tax cut - which led to workers having some 5-7% more in their pockets each month.

The inflation-adjusted "tax bracket creep" was now part of the new agreement.

You can read more about it here:

https://english.bmf.gv.at/Schelling_presents__Pact-fo__Austria_.html

Here's a chart:



Eliminating the tax bracket creep by adjusting it for inflation will save Austrian taxpayers about 1 Bio. € in taxes each year, but also reduces the revenues of the state government. On the other hand, people have more money to spend which means VAT tax revenues will increase.

[Tender Branson]

The SPÖ hits a new high in the latest Research Affairs/Ö24 poll:



Also, voters support most of the points that were agreed on by SPÖ and ÖVP in their coalition programme update:




http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Kern-Turbo-nach-Regierungs-Krise/267760374

[Tender Branson]

Also, voters say that Sebastian Kurz had the best performance in the coalition "programme update" talks, with 79% (!) saying they approve of his performance.

Finance Minister Schelling had a 68% rating.

Kern had a 62% rating, Mitterlehner 52%.

[Tender Branson]

Sebastian Kurz is now getting death threats by a 16-year old Chechen criminal and his friends, who just recently punched a 15-year old Vienna girl in her face in an attempt to kill her.



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/So-reagiert-Kurz-auf-das-Hass-Posting/267734339

Kurz responds by saying: "It's really obvious that we hit a nerve and are targeting the real folks with the anti-veil law. Misogynist views have no place in Austria."

[Tender Branson]

Tonight, the FPÖ's "academics ball" takes place in the Hofburg.

The number of anti-fa, left-leftist and black block protesters is down significantly from the previous years (especially from 2014, when some 20.000 leftists protested and destroyed the inner-city of Vienna).

Today, it's between 2.500 (estimates of the police) to 5.000 (organizers).

That's probably because President Van der Bellen (Greens) recently said: "Let them dance."

Police was anticipating a much larger protest crowd, so they put 3.000 officers on the ground (which means almost one police officer for each protester).

Vienna is pretty foggy tonight, so the mood is special:

[rob in cal]

   The support level for the minimum wage increase and immigration reduction measures is interesting as it is so high. If this was a FPO-OVP government doing the exact same thing I wonder if the overall support would be much lower, and if there would be mass protests against it.

[Tender Branson]

Here are some campaign posters for the Graz city council election tomorrow:



ÖVP: "Vote Nagl ! Graz in good hands. - Mayor Siegfried Nagl"

KPÖ: "Help instead of talk. Stand tall, give hope. Elke Kahr - KPÖ. You can vote for credibility."

SPÖ: "My personal appeal: Give the SPÖ a new chance ... to make our Graz more affordable, more lovable and livable for all. Michael Ehmann."

FPÖ: "Let's take our Graz back. Security. Love for the Homeland. Maintain our values. Mario Eustacchio."

Greens: "Graz is getting green again. Tina Wirnsberger."

Pirates: "You will wonder what kind of things will be possible ..." (a quote from Norbert Hofer)

NEOS: "Graz can do everything ! You can vote for a public transport capital. NEOS."

[ApatheticAustrian]

so many bad sujets......especially the SPÖ one

[Tender Branson]

Btw:

The number of eligible voters in the Graz city council election tomorrow is around 223.000 (this number includes all Austrian citizens aged 16+ and all EU-citizens aged 16+ in the city).

There will also be a "migrant advisory council" election, in which all non-EU residents (some 25.000) can vote (turnout in this election was only 9% though in 2012).

Anyway, my prediction for tomorrow:

30% ÖVP (-4)
23% KPÖ (+3)
17% FPÖ (+3)
13% Greens (+1)
12% SPÖ (-3)
  3% NEOS (+3)
  1% Pirates (-2)
  1% Others (-1)

Turnout: 68%

[Tender Branson]

Between 2000 people (police) and 4.000 (organizers) protested yesterday in Vienna against the coming full-face veil ban in public:

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http://en.europeonline-magazine.eu/2000-protest-against-planned-austrian-headscarf-restrictions_514055.html

The law will take effect on July 1, 2017 and fully-veiled persons (incl. tourists) will be fined 150€ per offense.

Around 80% of Austrian voters support the ban.

[Tender Branson]

Result of today's Graz city council elections:

38.2% ÖVP (+4.4)
20.0% KPÖ (+0.2)
15.8% FPÖ (+2.0)
10.5% Greens (-1.6)
10.1% SPÖ (-5.2)
  4.0% NEOS (+4.0)
  1.1% Pirates (-1.6)
  0.4% Others (-2.1)

[Tender Branson]

Some maps:

The KPÖ did really well in the 6 inner-city districts (getting between 24-29% there), while only getting between 13-20% in the outer districts.

Winner by district



Winner by precinct (white = tied)



Clickable maps:

http://orf.at/wahl/graz17/#globus/graz2017/winnerbezirke

[rob in cal]

   So Mayor Nagl's fear of a KPO, SPO, Green majority didn't come to pass.  Is the mayor elected by the city council? And would a KPO,SPO, Green majority have worked together to elect a new mayor if they had won a majority?

[Tender Branson]

   So Mayor Nagl's fear of a KPO, SPO, Green majority didn't come to pass.  Is the mayor elected by the city council? And would a KPO,SPO, Green majority have worked together to elect a new mayor if they had won a majority?

Yes, the mayor is elected by the new city council.

The seat distribution in Graz after the Sunday election is as followed:

19 ÖVP
10 KPÖ
  8 FPÖ
  5 Greens
  5 SPÖ
  1 NEOS
48 Total

As you can see, the ÖVP would have no majority with either SPÖ or Greens.

ÖVP-KPÖ won't happen. Basically Nagl can do whatever he wants now.

The previous coalition was ÖVP-SPÖ-FPÖ and the one before was ÖVP-Greens.

We'll see what happens. ÖVP-FPÖ is possible, but so is ÖVP-SPÖ-Greens or ÖVP-SPÖ-NEOS.

Or ÖVP-SPÖ-FPÖ again.

...

As for your question about a KPÖ-SPÖ-Green majority: Yes, they would have elected Elke Kahr (KPÖ) as the new mayor.

[Tender Branson]

A quick analysis about why the ÖVP did much better than expected in the Graz election:

* Mayor Nagl's popularity and incumbency-bonus

* The federal ÖVP's security package which was agreed on in the recent coalition update talks, with an emphasis on the Burqa/Niqab ban in the public and tougher measures against terror suspects, salafists and better integration of lawful asylum seekers and swifter deportation of criminal ones.

* The KPÖ-bashing by the ÖVP in the final week before the election, creating a horse race between the two parties that never was. And many centrist voters from other parties went to the ÖVP to prevent a KPÖ-power grab.

[Tender Branson]

Some Turks hacked the Austrian Parliament website on Sunday:

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https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2017/02/07/world/europe/ap-eu-austria-parliament-hacked-.html

[Tender Branson]

Austria's population has grown by 0.8% last year, according to data released by Statistics Austria today. That is down from the 1.4% growth rate in 2015, but still above the long-term average of around 0.3-0.6% in the past 30 years.

The January 1, 2017 population was 8.773.686 people.

15.3% of the population are foreigners, up from 14.6% a year ago.

Among the states, Vienna had the highest growth (+1.5%) and some districts within Vienna even had a 3% growth rate.

Several districts though had a higher growth rate than Vienna, and 22 (mostly rural) districts lost population.

Alltogether, the foreign population increased by 75.084 persons - of which EU citizens made up 39.350 persons and non-EU citizens 35.734.

People with Austrian citizenship declined by 1.869 people.

The TOP-10 citizenships with the highest increase last year:

+9.700 Afghanistan
+9.200 Romania
+8.300 Syria
+7.100 Hungary
+5.200 Germany
+3.100 Croatia
+2.800 Slovakia
+2.500 Bulgaria
+2.500 Poland
+2.300 Iran

Population growth by district:



VdB vs. Hofer by district:



http://www.statistik.at/web_de/presse/111433.html

[Tender Branson]

Interesting fact:

While the immigration surplus among EU-citizens moving to Austria remained virtually unchanged, it significantly decreased among non EU-citizens (fewer refugees last year than 2015):

EU-citizen migration balance to Austria

2016: +39.400
2015: +41.200

Non EU-citizen migration balance to Austria

2016: +35.700
2015: +77.300

...

For comparison, Austrian citizens only:

2016: -1.900
2015: -5.500

[Tender Branson]

Another interesting fact:

In the past 10 years, the number of Austrian citizens declined by about 50.000 people (DESPITE naturalisations of ~ 85.000 foreigners).

At the same time, the number of foreigners rose by 550.000 people.

The number of EU-citizens doubled, from 320.000 to 660.000 people.

The number of non-EU citizens went up from 470.000 to 680.000 people.

The share of EU-citizens among the total population rose from 4% to ~8% now.

The share of non EU-citizens among the total population rose from 6% to ~8% now.

[Tender Branson]

After the Pröll-retirement, another long-term and powerful ÖVP-governor will step down tomorrow:

Josef Pühringer, Governor of Upper Austria for the past 22 years, will hand over to Thomas Stelzer (left):



His retirement was expected for a long time, it was just a matter of "when".

Upper Austria will vote in 2020, so Stelzer will have enough time to get a good profile.

http://derstandard.at/2000052314443/Landeshauptmann-Puehringer-tritt-zurueck

[Tender Branson]

Chancellor Kern (SPÖ) prefers the next government to be SPÖ-Greens-NEOS:

http://derstandard.at/2000052287666/Kerns-SPOe-strebt-Mehrheit-mit-Gruenen-und-Neos-an

It's pretty uncommon for an Austrian Chancellor to voice a coalition preference ahead of a federal election, like they do in Sweden or other Scandinavian countries ...