Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15

[Tender Branson]

The new Profil magazine poll shows the ÖVP stabilizing at a somewhat higher level and the SPÖ still failing to overtake the FPÖ:

31% FPÖ
29% SPÖ
22% ÖVP
12% Greens
  5% NEOS
  1% Others

Chancellor vote:

39% Kern
17% Strache
10% Mitterlehner

...

70% of voters want the SPÖVP-coalition to finish their term until September 2018, instead of early elections.

If Sebastian Kurz were to run as ÖVP-leader, 22% of voters say they would "definitely" vote for the ÖVP and another 26% say they would "likely" vote for them.

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20170318_OTS0005/profil-umfrage-kanzlerfrage-kern-dominant-gute-werte-fuer-kurz

[Tender Branson]

More from the latest Research Affairs poll for Ö24, including some crosstabs:

Sebastian Kurz would do really well with women, rural voters, middle-aged/working-age voters and those without higher education.

All of this would hurt Strache and Kern.

Interesting also that with Kurz and Strache, 72% (!) of middle-aged/working-age/taxpaying voters would vote for the Right.

On the lower right side, you can see how voters rate the competence of Kern/Kurz/Strache on various topics:

* Immigration/refugees/asylum seekers
* Security and combating crime
* Jobs and social issues
* Schools/Education
* Child care
* Representation of Austria abroad
* Europe policy, EU-reforms
* Women's policies

At the bottom you can see the chart of Austrian politicians and their ratings with voters: It shows the saldo of "have a postive view" minus "have a negative view".

[Tender Branson]

After the successful managements of succession in the powerful ÖVP-governed states of Upper- and Lower Austria, the Vienna-SPÖ is trying the same.

But contrary to Upper Austria and Lower Austria, the Vienna-SPÖ is in heavy intra-party fights.

It's not clear yet if Mayor Michael Häupl runs again at the April party convention (he's become unpopular recently) and who might follow him.



Basically, the intra-party fight is inner-city (SPÖ/Greens and a leftist version of governing) vs. outer-city (SPÖ/FPÖ, or a more right-wing SPÖ who favours FPÖ-policies or a coalition with them).

The "outer-city" wing is pretty strong and influential recently and it's possible that Michael Ludwig (Vienna City Councillor for Housing, Housing Construction and Urban Renewal) could become the new party leader/mayor at the April convention.



Or, there could be a compromise candidate with Ulli Sima (Vienna City Councillor for the Environment), who stayed out of the intra-party conflicts.

[Tender Branson]

3rd poll this weekend: Market for the "Standard" newspaper (conducted March 15-17):

30% FPÖ (lowest level in Market polling since October 2015)
29% SPÖ
20% ÖVP
12% Greens
  6% NEOS
  1% TS
  2% Others

http://derstandard.at/2000054451621/Kern-zieht-SPOe-mit-Kanzlerpartei-mit-FPOe-fast-gleichauf

"Which politician do you think does a good job for his/her country ?"



Teal = does a good job for his/her country
Red = someone else would do a better job

[Tender Branson]

Governor Haslauer (ÖVP-Salzburg) is the first major politician to call for early federal elections in the fall (October or November), rather than next year - as planned.

His main argument is the fact that Austria will have the rotating Presidency of the Council of the European Union in the 2nd half of 2018, when the next election is held (as planned).

An election campaign together with Brexit negotiations would be really bad in his opinion (although Sebastian Kurz, ÖVP, is already working out a Brexit and EU-reform plan for these 6 months).

http://derstandard.at/2000054512275/Bis-dass-die-Wahl-2018-sie-scheidet-oder-doch-frueher

I guess Haslauer also has the 2018 state election in Salzburg in mind, which will be held in April or May. Assuming a landslide-win for the ÖVP with Sebastian Kurz in the fall federal election, it could strengthen the Haslauer-ÖVP in the state election. On the other hand, if the federal election is held at the regular date and they are not getting a lot done, it could impact the ÖVP negatively in the state election.

http://derstandard.at/2000054517658/Diese-Bundeslaender-waehlen-bald-die-Ausgangslage

[mgop]

Governor Haslauer (ÖVP-Salzburg) is the first major politician to call for early federal elections in the fall (October or November), rather than next year - as planned.

His main argument is the fact that Austria will have the rotating Presidency of the Council of the European Union in the 2nd half of 2018, when the next election is held (as planned).

An election campaign together with Brexit negotiations would be really bad in his opinion (although Sebastian Kurz, ÖVP, is already working out a Brexit and EU-reform plan for these 6 months).

http://derstandard.at/2000054512275/Bis-dass-die-Wahl-2018-sie-scheidet-oder-doch-frueher

I guess Haslauer also has the 2018 state election in Salzburg in mind, which will be held in April or May. Assuming a landslide-win for the ÖVP with Sebastian Kurz in the fall federal election, it could strengthen the Haslauer-ÖVP in the state election. On the other hand, if the federal election is held at the regular date and they are not getting a lot done, it could impact the ÖVP negatively in the state election.

http://derstandard.at/2000054517658/Diese-Bundeslaender-waehlen-bald-die-Ausgangslage

what a delusion...

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP-leader Mitterlehner is currently involved in a bizarre "bikini-waxing" affair, involving a hot former Austrian Miss Earth and business owner and the Vienna labour inspectorate, the unions and the SPÖ (sort-of) on the other side ...



So this is basically a brutal proxy-war between ÖVP and SPÖ, which shows everything what's currently wrong here in Austria ...

Everything started 2 months ago, when beauty-shop owner Katia Wagner (28) got a visit from the Vienna labour inspectorate, who found several (debateable) flaws in her shop:

https://www.thelocal.at/20170111/vienna-beauty-bar-owner-cheekily-responds-to-requirement-for-bikini-wax-with-a-view

Mitterlehner quickly came to the aid of the business-owner, complaining about the constant bureaucratic bullying and harassment and billions of new regulations aimed at small-business owners.

The media went crazy with headlines like: "ÖVP-leader visits intimate waxing saloon."



Wagner refused to back down and the labour inspectorate sent her even more complaints and regulations over the next months and sued her for over 5000€, for violating labour laws. Also, the labour unions stepped into the fight, calling her an abuser of her employees etc. - which she denies.

Just recently she said she has to close her shops because of the constant harassments by Vienna's bureaucratic institutions. About 30 workers (mostly women) would lose their jobs ... (most of them will stage a protest against the unions soon).

http://www.krone.at/oesterreich/waxing-mitarbeiter-planen-demo-vor-arbeiterkammer-streit-geht-weiter-story-559952

Wagner says if she has to close the shop, there would be at least 500.000€ in debts.

This whole story is just ...

I'm a strong supporter of good labour laws, but the Vienna labour inspectorate is clearly nuts.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I assume you will support her for the new OVP leader?

[ApatheticAustrian]

Mister Kurz has btw met with BoJo and praised the energy which is going to be set free through Brexit. I kind of feel betrayed.

http://derstandard.at/2000054518672/Kurz-als-umworbener-Partner-fuer-den-Brexit

[Tender Branson]

I assume you will support her for the new OVP leader?

Nope, but really ... it speaks volumes that a successful female small-business owner who employs 30 workers is bullied and forced to shut down her business because "bikini waxing has to be done in sunlight and not artifical light" and other restrictive bullsh*t regulations.

And all of this because ÖVP and SPÖ like to destroy each other by kicking each other's nuts every day.

[ApatheticAustrian]

. it speaks volumes that a successful female small-business owner who employs 30 workers is bullied and forced to shut down her business

that part of the story sounds somehow strange to me, to be totally honest.

[Tender Branson]

. it speaks volumes that a successful female small-business owner who employs 30 workers is bullied and forced to shut down her business

that part of the story sounds somehow strange to me, to be totally honest.

How so ?

[ApatheticAustrian]

How so ?

if she really employs 30 people, she is FORCED to shut down cause she doesn't want to build a new window?

i understand if she is closing down cause she is pissed but "forced" seems strange to me.

[Tender Branson]

How so ?

if she really employs 30 people, she is FORCED to shut down cause she doesn't want to build a new window?

i understand if she is closing down cause she is pissed but "forced" seems strange to me.

The new window is not all of the story though. They have found hundreds of other "flaws" too just to drive her nuts and there are more each day now (she even sees the labour inspectorate people more often than her parents, she said). That's not how you deal with someone who employs 30 people. This just seems like a secret method by Vienna's SPÖ to f**k the ÖVP and Katia Wagner is the pawn sacrifice in this idiotic game ...

BTW: If you look at the first picture, does this workplace look that bad ? I have seen much worse buildings where people work.

[Tender Branson]

I still cannot believe it ...

After 25 years (!), Lower Austria will say "goodbye" (or "good riddance") to their King-Governor Erwin Pröll today and elect a new Governor, the first female one, tomorrow - with Johanna Mikl-Leitner.

Mikl-Leitner and her 5 deputies (3 of them women) will be elected by the ÖVP-delegates tomorrow at a special convention.

[Tender Branson]

About a week ago, Foreign & Integration Minister Kurz said in an interview that he's currently working out an "EU-reform plan" for the upcoming Austrian EU presidency in the second half of 2018.

This reform plan also includes a plan to limit welfare payments to EU-citizens who move to another EU country. Under his plan, EU-foreigners need to live at least 5 years in another member country to receive welfare payments from that country.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/aussenminister-kurz-sozialleistungen-fuer-auslaender-erst-nach-fuenf-jahren/252.788.290

A new "Profil" magazine poll out today shows that 76% of Austrians support this plan, 20% are opposed and 4% undecided.

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20170325_OTS0007/profil-umfrage-drei-viertel-fuer-schaerfere-regeln-bei-der-sozialhilfe

[Tender Branson]

Austria says it will double money offer to refugees who volunteer to leave the country

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/austria-refugees-money-offer-volunteer-leave-country-migrant-crisis-europe-interior-minister-a7647331.html

[Tender Branson]

The Austrian Greens are currently experiencing intra-party fights:

The leader of the "Young Greens" (the youth wing), Flora Petrik (pictured below), has called on Austrian Green Party leader Eva Glawischnig to step down - calling her "undemocratic, authoritarian and intimidating".



The Young Greens are historically the far more radical left-leftist wing within the Green Party and it's not uncommon for them to be critical against the mother party. But the recent fight is a bit more troubling, because the federal Greens are now threatening to kick them out of the party.

The background for the YG's attacks are the upcoming student/university elections in May, in which the GRAS (the Green and Alternative Students, which is the official Green student representation) has split because of the above-mentioned "undemocratic, authoritarian and intimidating" actions of the GRAS. The new splinter organisation is backed by the Young Greens, who want to help them build the infrastructure for the May elections. And this is something that the mother party doesn't want. They fear that the votes of the historically strong GRAS will be split into two and that they won't govern together after the election. They don't want to follow the example of the Communist student organisations, which have already split up as well - into the KSV and the KSV-LiLi. Anyway, the ÖVP-aligned AG will probably win the election anyway, but it remains to be seen if they can form a government this time. Other key players in the student elections are the VSStÖ, the Junos and a few strong Independent lists. The RFS (=FPÖ) is rather weak among students (3%).

Here are the 2015 university election results:



The current (leftist) student government is GRAS/VSStÖ/FLÖ/FEST (29/55 seats).

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/junge-gruene-fordern-ruecktritt-glawischnigs/253.642.065

[Tender Branson]

President Alexander Van der Bellen hosted Arnold Schwarzenegger today, who was in his home town Graz for the Special Olympics, which ended yesterday:



They mostly talked about Schwarzenegger's advocacy for disabled people and about environmental policies.

[Tender Branson]

I still cannot believe it ...

After 25 years (!), Lower Austria will say "goodbye" (or "good riddance") to their King-Governor Erwin Pröll today and elect a new Governor, the first female one, tomorrow - with Johanna Mikl-Leitner.

Mikl-Leitner and her 5 deputies (3 of them women) will be elected by the ÖVP-delegates tomorrow at a special convention.

Mikl-Leitner elected new Lower Austria governor and ÖVP-leader with 98.5% of the delegates.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Ofc the green party is able to find even more problems for itself at a time when "green values" regarding human rights are under attack from nearly all other parties and miss glawischnig isn't quite popular anyway.

Surely never have been a fan of eternal Governor Pröll but he at least was able to find or - more to the point - anoint a successor when he was still powerful enough to keep his party united. The SPÖ of Vienna is going into a major crisis cause long-time mayor Michael Häupl has missed the right time to leave and the different factions are struggling for power since months...and for months to come. Graz is calling....

[Tender Branson]

Sebastian Kurz, who was mostly responsible for closing the Balkans route to asylum seekers last year, now also wants to close the Africa to Italy route and launched an attack against certain NGOs who he thinks are aides to people smugglers:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-03/25/c_136156161.htm

Chancellor Kern, the SPÖ and the Greens called Kurz's comments "inhumane".

[Tender Branson]

2 months after the election, Graz (2nd largest city here) will get a ÖVP-FPÖ coalition in the municipal council.

http://derstandard.at/2000054944780/Graz-wird-schwarzblau

The Graz Senate though is made up proportionally (3 ÖVP Senators, 2 KPÖ Senators, 1 FPÖ Senator and 1 Green Senator).

Side fact: The SPÖ received their lowest result on record in the election and was kicked out of the Senate (after getting 60% of the votes in the 1970s).

Also: The new ÖVP-led government decided to strip the KPÖ of their successful housing department, which led to their strong electoral performance in the past elections. The FPÖ will now be in charge of the housing department. The KPÖ can take solace from the fact that they got a 2nd Senator in the election, but it's still bad for them ...)

[ApatheticAustrian]

God-Emperor and former Lower Austria Gov Erwin Pröll gave a final interview with the main public television information program which kind of escalated after the interviewer, the infamous Armin Wolf, asked about Pröll's handling of his private foundation.

A foundation which is TOTALLY LEGAL but the Lower Austria state parliament always handled it like the nuclear codes and contrary to other foundations, transparency runs against zero.

http://derstandard.at/2000054970923/Weingott-streng-im-AbgangErwin-Proell-bei-Armin-Wolf-in-der

Full Interview:
http://tvthek.orf.at/profile/Additional-Content/1670/Langversion-Erwin-Proell-OeVP-im-ZIB-2-Gespraech/13922825/Langversion-Erwin-Proell-OeVP-im-ZIB-2-Gespraech/14014802

[Tender Branson]

God-Emperor and former Lower Austria Gov Erwin Pröll gave a final interview with the main public television information program which kind of escalated after the interviewer, the infamous Armin Wolf, asked about Pröll's handling of his private foundation.

A foundation which is TOTALLY LEGAL but the Lower Austria state parliament always handled it like the nuclear codes and contrary to other foundations, transparency runs against zero.

http://derstandard.at/2000054970923/Weingott-streng-im-AbgangErwin-Proell-bei-Armin-Wolf-in-der

Full Interview:
http://tvthek.orf.at/profile/Additional-Content/1670/Langversion-Erwin-Proell-OeVP-im-ZIB-2-Gespraech/13922825/Langversion-Erwin-Proell-OeVP-im-ZIB-2-Gespraech/14014802

Legal, but it's something that the opposition parties can use against the JML-ÖVP in the March 2018 state election, the first without God-Emperor Erwin Pröll as leading candidate.

The ÖVP is already expected to suffer huge losses with the new Governor, because it will be impossible to hold the absolute majorities that Erwin Pröll won for the party.

Plus, the FPÖ (which is traditionally weak in Lower Austria) is tactically positioning itself to benefit from this new situation by sending their frontrunner Walter Rosenkranz* (who's also an MP in the Austrian Parliament) into the Eurofighter investigation committee, which will start soon.

By having their "man from Lower Austria" in the committee as a key investigator, they will get positive coverage about transparency etc. and this committee will last at least until the state election.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/FPOe-mit-Rosenkranz-an-der-Spitze/275138568

* Walter Rosenkranz btw is not related to the infamous Neo-Nazi and failed FPÖ-presidential candidate from 2010, Barbara Rosenkranz, also known as "Reich-Mother".