Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15

[ApatheticAustrian]

quality yellow press trash "österreich" mixing our chancellor and our defense secretary.

[Tender Branson]

Today, the Upper Austrian ÖVP said "Goodbye" to their long-term ÖVP-Governor of 22 years, Josef Pühringer.

His last words were: "Long live the ÖVP, long live our beautiful state of Upper Austria."

The new Governor, Thomas Stelzer, was elected with 99.9% of the ca. 1000 delegates (1 delegate voted against him).

This comes after last week's ÖVP power transfer in Lower Austria, when Erwin Pröll (Governor for 25 years) retired.

Someone please tell Vienna Mayor Häupl (SPÖ) how to do this properly ...



Stelzer (center), Pühringer (right).



http://www.nachrichten.at/nachrichten/thema/Generationswechsel-in-der-Landes-VP-vollzogen;art180211,2527427

[Tender Branson]

March is now over, time for the April poll.

Plz vote on top of the page.

March poll: How would you have voted in the 1986 Presidential election ?

66.7% Kurt Steyrer (SPÖ) - (16 votes)
33.3% Kurt Waldheim (ÖVP) - (8 votes)

February poll: Do you support or oppose the introduction of a religion-neutral public full-face veil ban, with an initial fine of 150€ ?

53.8% Yes (21 votes)
46.2% No (18 votes)

January Poll: Will the SPÖVP coalition last until 2018 ?

75.9% Yes (22 votes)
24.1% No (7 votes)

[DavidB.]

Wow, inappropriate!

[Tender Branson]

Local and state Greens are not really amused with the federal Green leadership and their decision to kick out the Young Greens and want them to re-start talks with them after Easter:

http://orf.at/stories/2386020/2386021

They fear that the expulsion will significantly weaken the Green electoral performances in the 4 state elections next year and the federal election. The Young Greens are reponsible for roughly 50% of the mobilizing force of the Green Party as a whole.

So, while the Greens are unlikely to drop from 13% to 6.5% in the next federal elections (most Greens will always vote Green, because of the lack of credible alternatives on the Left), they could still drop to below 10%.

Some Greens might switch over to the SPÖ, after Chancellor Kern made the party more attractive recently with Green Energy policies etc.

[Tender Branson]

Green Party leader Eva Glawischnig has been treated at the emergency ward of a Vienna hospital after suffering a major allergic shock:

http://derstandard.at/2000055386241/Glawischnig-sagt-wegen-Krankheit-Termine-ab

The cause is unclear, but the Greens decided to communicate this incident right away to prevent conspiracy theories ...

[Tender Branson]

New TrendCom poll for the state of Burgenland (n=800):

State elections

43.0% SPÖ (+1.1%)
26.0% ÖVP (-3.1%)
17.5% FPÖ (+2.5%)
  6.5% Greens (-0.1%)
  4.5% LBL (-0.3%)
  2.5% NEOS (+0.2%)

http://www.bvz.at/burgenland/politik/grosse-umfrage-rot-blau-im-aufwind-niessl-mit-top-werten/44.290.356

Federal elections

37.0% SPÖ (-0.3% compared with 2013 election in Burgenland)
26.0% FPÖ (+8.6%)
24.5% ÖVP (-2.3%)

http://www.bvz.at/burgenland/meinung/leitartikel-umfrage-regierung-im-aufwind/44.284.732

[Tender Branson]

Pretty shady how many local and state Greens are now trying to topple party-leader Eva Glawischnig while she's sick and in hospital.

The "Standard" now reports that Lothar Lockl might take over once she's dismantled as the Green leader.



Lockl was the chief campaign strategist for President Van der Bellen. He'd obviously be a good choice for future Green Party leader, but Glawischnig needs to stay on.

http://derstandard.at/2000055450633/Spekulationen-ueber-die-Nachfolge-von-Glawischnig

[Tender Branson]

Charles and Camilla in Vienna today:

[Tender Branson]

Today, the Upper Austrian ÖVP said "Goodbye" to their long-term ÖVP-Governor of 22 years, Josef Pühringer.

His last words were: "Long live the ÖVP, long live our beautiful state of Upper Austria."

The new Governor, Thomas Stelzer, was elected with 99.9% of the ca. 1000 delegates (1 delegate voted against him).

Stelzer will be elected the new Governor by the state parliament in the next hour.

All parties have said they will vote for him.

[Tender Branson]

Vienna mayor Michael Häupl (SPÖ) will step down "no later than 3 months after the next federal election", he announced today:

http://wien.orf.at/news/stories/2835445

This would be late 2018, if there are no early elections.

[Zanas]

All this is exactly like the French elections of 1978.

[Tender Branson]

New GfK poll for the ÖVP (conducted in March, n=2.000):

29-30% SPÖ
27-28% FPÖ
23-24% ÖVP
10-11% Greens
    4-5% NEOS

http://www.tt.com/politik/landespolitik/12833697-91/wieder-mehr-zuspruch-f%C3%BCr-sp%C3%B6-und-%C3%B6vp.csp

Pretty interesting findings. An internal ÖVP-poll showing the SPÖ ahead ...

[ApatheticAustrian]

the fpö is falling anyway and without kurz only kern benefits.

[windjammer]

Is a SPÖ-FPÖ possible ?

[Tender Branson]

Is a SPÖ-FPÖ possible ?

Everything is possible.

Especially if Kern comes in first in the election and Vienna mayor Häupl (a FPÖ critic) steps down and is not involved in coalition talks anymore.

SPÖ and ÖVP are so hostile against each other right now that a coalition with the FPÖ seems the lesser evil. Especially if the FPÖ agrees to accept certain pro-European coalition standards.

[Tender Branson]

Thomas Stelzer (ÖVP, right) officially sworn in as new Governor of Upper Austria by President VdB:

[Tender Branson]

New GfK poll for the ÖVP (conducted in March, n=2.000):

29-30% SPÖ
27-28% FPÖ
23-24% ÖVP
10-11% Greens
    4-5% NEOS

http://www.tt.com/politik/landespolitik/12833697-91/wieder-mehr-zuspruch-f%C3%BCr-sp%C3%B6-und-%C3%B6vp.csp

Pretty interesting findings. An internal ÖVP-poll showing the SPÖ ahead ...

According to poll tracker neuwal.com, this is the first time in 2 years that the SPÖ has been ahead in the polls for the next federal election:



The 29.5% for the SPÖ is also their highest polling number since August 2013 ...

[Tender Branson]

Eva Glawischnig (Green leader) seems to have recovered from her severe allergic shock and said she'll continue as GP leader, despite all the recent talk about her "end".

She'll appear tomorrow at ORF's discussion "Im Zentrum", together with Young Green leader Flora Petrik. This should be a funny thing to watch.

http://derstandard.at/2000055588512/Gruene-Glawischnig-will-weitermachen

[Tender Branson]

Turkish officials question Austrian children’s newspaper article criticizing Erdoğan

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.politico.eu/article/turkish-officials-question-austrian-childrens-newspaper-article-criticizing-erdogan-referendum-constitution

[Tender Branson]

Eva Glawischnig (Green leader) seems to have recovered from her severe allergic shock and said she'll continue as GP leader, despite all the recent talk about her "end".

She'll appear tomorrow at ORF's discussion "Im Zentrum", together with Young Green leader Flora Petrik. This should be a funny thing to watch.

http://derstandard.at/2000055588512/Gruene-Glawischnig-will-weitermachen

I watched this discussion and it was ...

It was a 70-minute live-continuation of the Green self-destruction and there were 3 reasonable people on the stage (the debate moderator in the center, Eva Glawischnig = Green leader and the political expert Pelinka). Glawischnig likened the situation to a football match in which one of the players in the team runs towards the own goal to score an own goal and that the coach would have to send this player off the field. Glawischnig's other comments also made a lot of sense and it became clear that she only had the interest of the party in mind, contrary to Petrik who simply wants to blow up the party and who's too ignorant to acknowledge that she made a huge mistake.



Petrik (the Young Green leader) continued her obstructionism without clearly stating what the Young Greens even want or stand for. The PR-expert Fussi to her left absolutely destroyed her in her arguments, but he also was way too aggressive against her.

If looks could kill:



Meanwhile, the FPÖ attacked the ORF discussion as a useless "Green therapy session" and that payers of TV-fees shouldn't be bothered with this.

[Tender Branson]

Ö24 speculates that SPÖ and ÖVP could already agree as early as May if there'll be snap elections in the fall:

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/daniel/Schwarzer-Neuwahl-Plan/277065575

The late fall would indeed be a good time for early elections. 2017 is without a major election and in early 2018 there are 4 major state elections scheduled. In the second half of 2018, Austria will have the EU presidency with the all-important Brexit talks being finalized.

In Austria, early elections have to be called about 90 days before the actual election date - so this would mean that either SPÖ or ÖVP quits the coalition after the summer recess, with the snap elections being called in mid-August. SPÖ and ÖVP could also find a common way to end their coalition, because nobobdy wants to be the one who actually busts the coalition (Austrians usually punish the party that blows it up).

With the Green self-destruction recently, the SPÖ will definitely pull ahead of the FPÖ in the next weeks and months and together with Kern's "Plan A" they'd have a good chance to also beat them in the October polls.

And an early fall election would also benefit the ÖVP, as long as Sebastian Kurz is still undamaged. Also, NEOS recently was in some trouble - losing a few MPs (=> bad public image).

Still, the FPÖ's Kickl gave an interview today in which he said that "the FPÖ is stronger than ever before, that they learnt a lot from the failed Presidential campaigns and that their finances are better than ever".

http://derstandard.at/2000055629448/Kickl-Sind-auf-diese-Wahl-so-gut-vorbereitet-wie-nie

It all looks like a battle between SPÖ, ÖVP and FPÖ - all of them around 30%, with the Greens and NEOS getting crushed.

[Tender Branson]

Breaking:

The Young Green leadership fully capitulates, meaning that Petrik and her co-chairs will all step down. Glawischnig yesterday offered the YG new possibilities within the party, but only if all the leading Young Greens are stepping down.

http://derstandard.at/2000055696233/Spitze-der-Jungen-Gruenen-zieht-sich-zurueck

[MAINEiac4434]

I've been reading all your updates, but I still don't fully understand what happened between the Young Greens and Green Party.

[Tender Branson]

I've been reading all your updates, but I still don't fully understand what happened between the Young Greens and Green Party.

Did you also read the first post I made about their conflict ?

It all started with this incident, in which the YG leadership decided to become traitors. And now it got too hot for them and they finally acknowledged that their actions were idiotic and blowing up the party. The YG leader yesterday was almost compared with Jörg Haider for blowing up the FPÖ. I guess overnight she had some time to think about what she has done to the party and its reputation over the past few weeks. Good that she and her leadership crew finally stepped down, so that the party can unite again for the next federal elections.