Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15

[ApatheticAustrian]

i think the haider comparison is ludicrous.

only van der bellen could create another knittelfeld or one of the earlier male leaders...or maybe some west-austrian green politicans, like felipe.

petrik CAN'T split the party, Eva on the other hand used the nuclear option.

you can totally agree with frau glawischnig, but she was the one using far more drastical steps - cause of her weakened internal standing, i guess.

[Tender Branson]

i think the haider comparison is ludicrous.

only van der bellen could create another knittelfeld or one of the earlier male leaders...or maybe some west-austrian green politicans, like felipe.

petrik CAN'T split the party, Eva on the other hand used the nuclear option.

you can totally agree with frau glawischnig, but she was the one using far more drastical steps - cause of her weakened internal standing, i guess.

But Petrik exactly did that with her actions. She had too big of an ego and brought division into the party, almost to the point of a split (not to mention the disastrous image that the Greens now have in the Austrian public because of what she did).

Glawischnig did exactly the right thing by kicking them out, but at the same time offering a new YG leadership a renewed place in the party and the federal Green leadership council. She also responded by increasing the share of young MPs in the next legislative period.

[Tender Branson]

Btw, here is the official declaration of surrender on part of the Young Greens:

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http://junge-gruene.at/blog/2017/04/10/junge-gruene-es-geht-uns-um-die-sache-nicht-um-posten

[DavidB.]

If a party leader cares this much about a statement by their youth organization it is clear that their position is weak.

[Tender Branson]

If a party leader cares this much about a statement by their youth organization it is clear that their position is weak.

Nope. It wasn't only a "statement", it was deliberate actions taken against the party by establishing and supporting a splinter group for the university elections as well as calling for the resignation of the GP leader. Even though youth organisations are often critical, such actions need to have consequences. That doesn't have anything to do with Glawischnig's position being "weak". In fact, the decision to kick out the YG from the party was backed by a 23-2 vote in the federal Green leadership council.

[Tender Branson]

This week we should get the first polls conducted entirely after the Green self-destruction of the past 2 weeks.

I wonder if the Greens dropped below 10% and if the SPÖ gained enough to overtake the FPÖ ...

[ApatheticAustrian]

fun fact:

in the 17th district of vienna, a local district councillor from the green party has switched to .....the FPÖ (!), cause of.....quote "useless and dangerous" bicycle tracks....resulting into the end of the red-green majority in the district council.

http://derstandard.at/2000055795826/Wechsel-in-Penzing-Gruener-Bezirksrat-geht-zu-FPOe

[Tender Branson]

fun fact:

in the 17th district of vienna, a local district councillor from the green party has switched to .....the FPÖ (!), cause of.....quote "useless and dangerous" bicycle tracks....resulting into the end of the red-green majority in the district council.

http://derstandard.at/2000055795826/Wechsel-in-Penzing-Gruener-Bezirksrat-geht-zu-FPOe

I knew the Greens were in trouble because of the last weeks, but this is just ...

[Tender Branson]

Chancellor Kern visiting the SWAT (or Austrian: COBRA) training center today, saying "We have to be prepared for everything" and thanking them for their work:

[Tender Branson]

The Austrian Integration Fund announced today that they have a new religious estimate of Austria, in which the number of Muslims has reached a record-high of 700.000 or 8% of the population.

I already assumed earlier that there are now 8% Muslims around here (probably even slightly more (=> 8.5-9%), when looking at Statistics Austria data of naturalisations, immigration, etc).

The last Census to include religion was back in 2001, when Austria had 330.000 Muslims (4% of the population).

The religious makeup of Austria now:

59.0% Catholic
  8.0% Muslim
  5.5% Orthodox
  3.5% Evangelical
24.0% Others/former members of a church but who quit/Agnostic/Atheist

There are also 15.000 Jews in Austria.

I belong to the 24% of "others", having quit the CC after turning 18. I guess if we look at the numbers who quit the CC and the EC in recent decades, we can assume that at least 15% of the 24% are former Catholics or Evangelicals.

So, basically Austria is still 80%+ Christian if we include the former Catholics and Evangelicals.

http://derstandard.at/2000055891947/Zahl-der-Muslime-in-Oesterreich-waechst

[Tender Branson]

The political website neuwal.com is currently interviewing the frontrunners of the May 16-18 university/student government elections:

https://neuwal.com/2017/04/13/intro-die-spitzenkandidatinnen-der-oeh-wahl-2017-im-neuwal-barometer

Lists running in all universities so far:

VSStÖ (= SPÖ)
AG (= ÖVP)
RFS (= FPÖ)
GRAS (= Greens)
JUNOS (= NEOS)
FLÖ (Indy list)
KSV-KJÖ (= Communists 1.0)
KSV-LiLi (= Communists 2.0)

5 of the 8 lists have female lead candidates.

The indy FEST list, which previously ran Austria-wide, is now focusing only on the FH and PHs (specialized universities and teacher universities).

The current student government is a leftist coalition of VSStÖ-GRAS-FLÖ-FEST.

Other lists competing on the local university level are the rogue "Green Students" (who were the prime reason of the Austrian Green Party troubles over the past few weeks), "The List" (basically the student version of the German satirical party "The Party" and the feminist "No'Maam" list.

2015 results:

[Tender Branson]

First poll after the Green troubles, by Research Affairs for "Ö24" (conducted April 11-13, n=602 people polled), shows the Greens declining by 2% and also the FPÖ down by 1%. SPÖ gains 2% and the ÖVP 1%. The SPÖ also hits 30% for the first time in 4 years in a non-internal poll:

Without Kurz as ÖVP-leader



With Kurz as ÖVP-leader



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-Kern-und-Strache-Kopf-an-Kopf/277845682

[Tender Branson]

Just checked it:

The 9% for the Greens in the above poll is their lowest polling since August 2010 ...

[ApatheticAustrian]

meaning:

the combined forces of hipsters, social liberals, pro-environment voters, conservagreens, economically liberal anti-institutionalists, refugee-welcome-types, libertarians and anti-nazi-left voters are pollig at about 14%...and one of those two parties maybe isn't even able to make it again into the parliament.

[Tender Branson]

meaning:

the combined forces of hipsters, social liberals, pro-environment voters, conservagreens, economically liberal anti-institutionalists, refugee-welcome-types, libertarians and anti-nazi-left voters are pollig at about 14%...and one of those two parties maybe isn't even able to make it again into the parliament.

There's also a decent share of these types among the SPÖ, not just among Greens+NEOS ...

[Tender Branson]

Another two interesting polls out today ...

The first one is "OGM"s "trust index" for the APA, of Vienna city politicians. The most important aspect here is that Mayor Michael Häupl's days seem to be over. He's not the most popular politician in the capital anymore and has fallen back to 3rd place. First place now belongs to Michael Ludwig, who's almost guaranteed to be his successor. Contrary to Häupl (who's a strong critic of the FPÖ and a SPÖ/FPÖ government), Ludwig is part of the more pragmatic, outer-district wing within the SPÖ who favours co-operation with the FPÖ, or even a coalition with them). The other aspect is that the Green-leader is dead last:



...

The other poll is also by OGM, for the "Kurier" newspaper:

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What do you support ? (all voters)

32% Häupl-wing
48% Niessl-wing

SPÖ-voters only:

45% Häupl-wing
44% Niessl-wing

FPÖ-voters only:

  2% Häupl-wing
80% Niessl-wing

Which wing will become dominant by the time of the next federal election ? (all voters)

26% Häupl-wing
40% Niessl-wing

SPÖ-voters only:

41% Häupl-wing
34% Niessl-wing

FPÖ-voters only:

11% Häupl-wing
58% Niessl-wing



https://kurier.at/politik/inland/niessls-rot-blau-kurs-spaltet-die-spoe/258.369.547

[ApatheticAustrian]

i am not sure, i would call the wish for "spö-fpö"-coalitions pragmatic. more of a switch from the left-wing of the spö to the right-wing of the party.

anyway, ludwig seems inevitable, even while he shocks me more cause of his attitude than his stands. to rule vienna you need to be casual and folksy like häupl, ludwig seems more .....tense.

[Tender Branson]

There are increasing signs that early federal elections will be held in October or November.

Not only Kurz (ÖVP) is constantly campaigning already (in schools, with business leaders, with foreign leaders of course etc.), but also Chancellor Kern (SPÖ) is stepping up the campaigning.

Just this week, he visited several businesses (incl. a technical school for young girls), a Vienna market/restaurant, the Traiskirchen asylum center (where he biked through the city) and he visited the COBRA training center (=Austria's SWAT-team).



In case Kurz does not take over the ÖVP, current party leader Mitterlehner will give a major "State of the Union" speech in May to boost his profile.

The 3rd (or 4th) of the pack, Strache (FPÖ), is relatively quiet recently. But the FPÖ's general secretary recently said that "the FPÖ is better prepared for an early election in the fall than ever before and that he prefers a coalition with the SPÖ."

[Tender Branson]

More Easter weekend polling:

OGM has done a hypothetical "Chancellor poll" for the "Kurier" newspaper, but failed to do a federal election poll. The poll only offers the choices between Kern, Kurz and Strache with no Green or NEOS option. In this scenario, Kern is slightly ahead of Kurz (because Green and NEOS voters opt for Kern over Kurz, as the article mentions).



OGM also polled hypothetical leadership support in each party. Kern has the solid backing as SPÖ-leader from all Austrians polled and from SPÖ-voters. Kurz would be overwhelmingly supported over current party leader Mitterlehner by all Austrians and ÖVP-voters and so on.



Also, Austrians want regular elections in the fall of 2018, rather than early elections this year and think Austria's EU presidency with the intensive BREXIT-talks next year are only an excuse for the government to vote early this year:



https://kurier.at/politik/inland/kopf-an-kopf-kern-nur-knapp-vor-kurz/258.588.144

[Tender Branson]

Even more Easter weekend polling:

OGM also polled the fear of terror attacks among Austrians, with 36% saying they fear an attack here vs. 55% who are not afraid. FPÖ and ÖVP-voters fear it most.



Voters are split when it comes to Austria doing enough to prevent terrorist attacks in the country, with most FPÖ and ÖVP voters saying it is not doing enough:



https://kurier.at/politik/inland/terrorangst-oesterreicher-sind-relativ-cool/258.543.716

[Tender Branson]

And here's the full weekend Ö24/Research Affairs poll, showing that Kurz leads Kern by 2 in the Chancellor vote:

(right-click for big version)

[Tender Branson]

More from the Easter weekend OGM/Kurier poll shows that Austrians are critical of taking in more refugees after the 200.000 that were allowed in over the past years ...

"The EU wants to re-locate 2.000 refugees from Italy/Greece to Austria. Do you support or oppose this ?"



"Burgenland's Governor Niessl (SPÖ) has argued that it's time now that other EU-countries should take refugees from Austria. Do you support or oppose this ?"



https://kurier.at/politik/inland/ein-gutes-drittel-der-oesterreicher-fuer-aufnahme-weiterer-fluechtlinge/258.917.231

[Tender Branson]

Johanna Mikl-Leitner (ÖVP) was elected new Governor of Lower Austria today, by 52 of the 56 members of the state parliament (the 4 FPÖ members voted against her, while all ÖVP/SPÖ/Green/TS members voted for her).

She follows Erwin Pröll, Governor for the last 25 years, and she's the first female Governor of the state.



She'll have it pretty hard though early next year to defend the absolute majority that Pröll won in 2013. The FPÖ is rising in the state, the SPÖ will likely pick a former police chief soon as their frontrunner for next year who can appeal to center-right voters and there's also competition for the ÖVP by the NEOS this time, who are likely to do well in the Vienna suburbs.

http://derstandard.at/2000056137193/Sonderlandtag-in-St-Poelten-Mikl-Leitner-wird-Landeshauptfrau

[Tender Branson]

Chancellor Kern (SPÖ) met with Danish PM Rasmussen today and they talked about various issues such as Turkey, Brexit, immigration, EU budget contributions and child allowance:

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Link

[Tender Branson]

This article by the satirical Tagespresse is great:

"Integration accomplished: Majority of Austrian Turks vote for strong Führer."

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http://dietagespresse.com/integration-gelungen-mehrheit-der-austro-tuerken-stimmt-fuer-starken-fuehrer