Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15

[Tender Branson]

The next state election here in Salzburg will only take place in one year, but all major parties are currently running their first poster campaigns already, with the FPÖ, Green and SPÖ-posters basically being everywhere right now. The ÖVP is also running some, as is SBG (the new, centrist party of the former TS state government member Mayr).

The current state government btw is ÖVP-Greens-SBG.

Here are some examples:

The ÖVP's way is to highlight their successes in a more emotional way and appealing to voters feelings about belonging to the state and a sense of home or homeland coupled with positive thinking:

"A common way unites. The Salzburg-way forward for a stable future."



The FPÖ is featuring their new, 24-year old state party leader Marlene Svazek. She's relatively unknown so far, so it's primarily the goal to make her more visible around the state and she's using a confrontational slogan directed against the ÖVP-governor Haslauer in her poster ("Taking responsibility: Woman with power, instead of Haslauer. Considerate, determined, different.")



The Greens are highlighting their achievements in the government so far and their policies, by using broad slogans such as "Salzburg has heart/brains/courage":

      

The SPÖ is focusing on tackling the high costs of living, especially the high apartment and renting prices, which have almost doubled over the past decade, as well as public transport initiatives such as cheaper tickets and also more and free child-care places for families.



Then there's also the above-mentioned SBG, but I cannot find their posters online somehow, but it focuses on the "rise of the middle-class".

Haven't seen anything from NEOS so far, and there's also the FPÖ 2.0 (the so-called FPS, which split from the FPÖ a while ago), but they too have no poster campaign right now.

Current polling in the state right now:

30-35% ÖVP
20-25% FPÖ
15-20% Greens
15-20% SPÖ
    5-7% NEOS
    2-4% SBG
    2-4% FPS

2013 results:

29% ÖVP
24% SPÖ
20% Greens
17% FPÖ
  8% TS
  2% Others

There's a 5%-threshold.

[Tender Branson]

The "Kurier" reports about an internal SPÖ-poll for the state of Carinthia, which will also have their next state election in ca. one year. The poll was conducted by TrendCom in February among 1.100 people:



The threshold is 5%.

https://kurier.at/chronik/oesterreich/umfrage-fpoe-in-kaernten-nahe-30-prozent/262.171.709

Polling out of Carinthia is rare and even if it's an internal poll, it looks OK. The SPÖ is steady at a high level, the FPÖ is rising again thanks to the collapsing TS and BZÖ. The ÖVP remains at a low and the Greens are actually pretty stable after getting their best result in 2013. This would mean the BZÖ is out of every state parliament next year. The TS (actually Team Köfer) is probably overrated with 4%, I guess they will clearly fail to enter the state parliament again. NEOS remains low, but I guess their chances remain intact.

[Tender Branson]

New Market poll for the "Standard" (conducted May 3-5):



http://derstandard.at/2000057136951/Umfrage-Mehrheit-gegen-vorgezogene-Wahlen

Market tends to overpoll the Greens by about 2% and underpolling the ÖVP by about 2%.

Also, the worst FPÖ-result in a Market poll for quite some time (before the 2015 migrant inflow started).

I also don't know what that silly SPÖ outlier poll in 2014 was. Probaby a chart fail. The SPÖ was never at 12% ...

[seb_pard]

Maybe it was an excel typo and was actually 21%

[Tender Branson]

PULS 4 TV yesterday tried a new political discussion format, involving former Independent presidential candidate Irmgard Griss (19%).

The discussion format was along the lines of an actual courtroom trial, in which Griss acts as the judge (she served as Austrian Constitutional Court President already).

Then there was a "lawyer" or debate leader for the pro-side and one for the opposing side.

The debate leaders had the chance to make opening statements, present 3 witnesses who testified and there were video reports for each side to strenghten their arguments.



There was also a 12-person jury, representative of the Austrian population as well as an audience in the background.

After all witnesses were heard, cross-examinations and closing statements were delivered, pollster OGM conducted a live-poll of 500 representative voters at home. The jury also gave their verdict.

The topic of the trial was "Should teachers and students in school be allowed to wear headscarves ?"

The YES-side was represented by a headscarf-wearing Austrian muslim woman and teacher (who did a really good job as "lawyer").

The No-side was represented by a Turkish-born German muslim woman and teacher (who also did a good job with her arguments).

The pollster OGM found that 80% of Austrians polled supported the ban in school, 20% were opposed.

67% of jury members [8] supported the ban, 33% were opposed [4].

Full debate:

http://www.puls4.com/Im-Namen-des-Volkes/Videos/Im-Namen-des-Volkes-vom-07.05.2017-515888

[Tender Branson]

Yesterday, Interior Minister Sobotka (ÖVP) provoked Chancellor Kern (SPÖ) by calling him a "failure as Chancellor".

A lot of other heads of state would have probably kicked a minister out who said something similar, but Kern took it easy.

It seems that over the past weeks or months, SPÖ and ÖVP have increased their provocations against each other significantly.

There are also rumours that Vice-Chancellor and ÖVP-leader Mitterlehner wants to step down, because he's annoyed of what's going on in his party and in the coalition - which he denies.

But it's no secret that there are many people within the ÖVP who are already secretly working to replace him with Sebastian Kurz.

Just a matter of time until this coalition blows up.

http://derstandard.at/2000057197495/Sobotka-veraergert-Kern-und-OeVP

[Tender Branson]

Strache (FPÖ) hands over the complete list of eligible Austro-Turkish voters to authorities today:

http://www.krone.at/oesterreich/doppelstaatsbuerger-fpoe-uebergibt-liste-behoerden-namen-ueberpruefen-story-568421

The list contains the names/addresses etc. of more than 108.000 Austro-Turk voters who were eligible to vote in the Turkish referendum.

The list was passed on to a Green MP (who's reluctant to hand it over to authorities), to the FPÖ (who commissioned a notary to verify the list) and to the media.

Strache said the verification showed that the list is valid.

The authorities will now carefully check each and every name on that list to see if there are illegal dual-citizens on it. It is estimated that there are some 20.000 illegals on that list.

By law, the authorities will have to revoke the Austrian citizenship if they find enough evidence of fraud. They can also charge a significant fine on the illegal dual-citizenship holders (up to 10.000€ per case).

[DavidB.]

How do the Austrian authorities know which Austrian citizens have Turkish (or any other second) citizenship?

[ApatheticAustrian]

How do the Austrian authorities know which Austrian citizens have Turkish (or any other second) citizenship?

they don't.

they know shouldn't be allowed to get one and who may have voted.

[Tender Branson]

Today was a really bad day for the SPÖ-ÖVP government, with a full-blown fight going on before/during/after their cabinet meeting:

http://derstandard.at/2000057228426/Intrigantenstadel-OeVP-Rote-kritisieren-Abwesenheit-von-Kurz-und-Sobotka

First, there were rumours that ÖVP-leader Mitterlehner was about to step down (read my post above). Then, Kurz (ÖVP) and Interior Minister Sobotka (ÖVP) didn't show up to the meeting.

Then virtually all SPÖ cabinet members launched an attack against Kurz (and Sobotka), saying he's the guy who most often skips the cabinet meetings and that he's trying to blow up the coalition as well as to oust Mitterlehner behind the scenes by using Sobotka as his attack dog.

Kurz (who was in Vorarlberg for a "campaign tour"), said he has nothing to do with it and wants to stay out of the coalition problems and the "mess" that is the ÖVP right now and that "he has no interest in taking over as party leader".

Then the ÖVP said that the rumours about Mitterlehner's retirement were a deliberate, concerted plot from the SPÖ and an intrigue against them, launched from the top down (starting with Kern and Kern's son -> who sent the rumours to an ÖVP-friend yesterday evening).

Then, the "Standard" reported about Neo-Nazi activities and posts in the ÖVP's university grouping - the AG. Student parliament elections are held Austria-wide next week, with the AG defending their first place from 2015.

Apparently, some AG members have posted "Anne Frank nude", above a pile of ashes ...

The "Standard" author who posted the article was a previous member of the VSStÖ (the SPÖ's student organisation) ...

http://derstandard.at/2000057250697/Antisemitische-Postings-in-Gruppe-der-Aktionsgemeinschaft

There is something seriously wrong with that coalition ...

[DavidB.]

How do the Austrian authorities know which Austrian citizens have Turkish (or any other second) citizenship?

they don't.

they know shouldn't be allowed to get one and who may have voted.

I'm sorry, what do you mean by this?

[Tender Branson]

How do the Austrian authorities know which Austrian citizens have Turkish (or any other second) citizenship?

they don't.

they know shouldn't be allowed to get one and who may have voted.

I'm sorry, what do you mean by this?

There is a task-force about these cases in Tyrol, which was looking into several cases of illegal dual-citizenships over the past 20 years and revoked some. They had contact with local Turkish authorities and birth/death/marriage/citizenship registries.

This was how it was done until now ...

The question right now is: With the list of 108.000 names, will Turkish authorities still co-operate with Austrian authorities in the same way to weed out the illegals ?

[Tender Branson]

The disgusting anti-semitic jokes and pictures by the AG (ÖVP's student organisation), which were exposed today, are a major disaster for them:



The AG, which won the 2015 student elections, will be hard-hit in the new elections next week (probably most of their voters will vote for the JUNOS now).

[ApatheticAustrian]

I'm sorry, what do you mean by this?

pardon, i missed a word.

the authorities know, which people have revoked theit turkish citizenship to get the austrian one.....some of those people re-applied/renewed their turkish citizenship.

and as tender implied, the list could be used as a starting points for double checks inside of this group.

[Tender Branson]

The anti-semitism scandal affecting the AG also involves members of the JVP (Young ÖVP), of which Sebastian Kurz is the leader.

Kurz has immediately tweeted that it is disgusting and that those involved need to be kicked out of the AG and the JVP.

https://twitter.com/sebastiankurz/status/861970101934927873

Very bad political day for Kurz too, but he seems to handle it well so far.

[DavidB.]

Very distasteful, but, apart from the Anne Frank comments, nothing I haven't encountered in certain Whatsapp groups (and yes, of course I tell people who do this to f**k off). That's not "neo-Nazi activity" or even real antisemitism, it's misplaced edginess. It shouldn't be laughed off, but it shouldn't be taken too seriously either. Good for Kurz to disavow this though.

[Tender Branson]

Mitterlehner (ÖVP-leader) to hold a press conference in 10 minutes which involves a "personal announcement" ...

Is he stepping down ?

[Tender Branson]

Mitterlehner (ÖVP-leader) to hold a press conference in 10 minutes which involves a "personal announcement" ...

Is he stepping down ?

He just stepped down.

[Tender Branson]

Mitterlehner (ÖVP-leader) to hold a press conference in 10 minutes which involves a "personal announcement" ...

Is he stepping down ?

He just stepped down.

He'll also step down as Vice Chancellor and Minister for the Economy.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Kurz now or never

[mgop]

why is kurz more popular than mitterlehner?

[Tender Branson]

why is kurz more popular than mitterlehner?

Because

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=254431.msg5456690#msg5456690

[mgop]

why is kurz more popular than mitterlehner?

Because

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=254431.msg5456690#msg5456690

so this is probably not a good time, it's to early. elections are in year and a half so everybody will attack him.

[Tender Branson]

why is kurz more popular than mitterlehner?

Because

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=254431.msg5456690#msg5456690

so this is probably not a good time, it's to early. elections are in year and a half so everybody will attack him.

This really depends if the Kurz-ÖVP has the balls to pull out of the coalition now and invokes snap elections ...

It would certainly be the better option for Kurz I guess. He could use his popularity right now to win the election. But if they wait, like you said another 1.5 years until the regular election date then he could already have lost ground significantly in popularity because he will get attacked from without and from within.

Kurz needs to watch for the enemies within the ÖVP, there are some Django-loyal ones who could be out for revenge after this really ugly coup today and the events in past days ...

[Tender Branson]

Austrian vice chancellor and ÖVP-leader resigns amid coalition tensions

The stability of Austria’s coalition government has been thrown into doubt following the resignation of the country’s vice chancellor and leader of the centre-right People’s Party.

Reinhold Mitterlehner has quit in exasperation over simmering disputes within the coalition administration headed by Social Democratic chancellor Christian Kern.



His departure, announced at a press conference on Wednesday, could increase pressure for early national parliamentary elections which would prove a further test of populist parties in Europe.

Austria’s far-right Freedom Party has led recent opinion polls, and came close last year to having its candidate elected as Austrian president. National elections are not scheduled until September next year.

Mr Mitterlehner is widely expected to be succeeded as leader of the People’s party by Sebastian Kurz, Austria’s 30-year-old foreign minister, who would then run for the Austrian chancellorship.

However, in his first reaction, Mr Kern sought to avert an early poll by offering to work in a “reform partnership” with Mr Kurz. “My goal is to continue working with the People’s Party,” the chancellor said.

Austria is one of Europe’s most affluent countries but tensions within the “grand coalition” of the country’s two main parties – the Social Democrats and People’s Party – have been exacerbated by Austria’s recent economic under performance. Europe’s migration crisis has further stoked pressures. Thousands of refugees fleeing wars in countries such as Syria have entered the country, although most have continued to countries such as Germany and Sweden. The Freedom Party has won support by pledging tougher controls on immigration.

Although part of the governing coalition, senior People’s Party leaders have also criticised the work of the government in efforts to position themselves for the next election. Mr Mitterlehner praised Mr Kern in his resignation statement but said he did not want to remain caught in the middle of such conflicts. “That is simply no fun – but also makes no sense.” He said he was resigning for “self-protection”.

Decisions on the People’s Party leadership are expected this weekend.

https://www.ft.com/content/fe062f54-accb-3b31-a960-f3d029933ad9