Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15

[Tender Branson]

Sebastian Kurz, the most likely new ÖVP-leader, has gone full "submarine": no word from him over the past few hours.

It is speculated that Kurz will only agree to take over if he gets full powers within the party (something that has always been difficult because of the ÖVP's various branches, that are often hostile against each other -> as we have seen over the past days and weeks, with Sobotka acting as Kurz's hitman against Mitterlehner and Chancellor Kern).

With this "cut-through clause" he could re-shape the party mostly as he wishes, replace current office-holders and bring in new ones to prepare the party for the elections.

I find it highly unlikely that Kurz will take over the party, with the intra-party chaos remaining and also the coalition with the SPÖ.

Kurz needs to show strength now to remain credible. Let's see what he does ...

[Tender Branson]

Kurz to the APA: "It cannot go on like this, not in the ÖVP nor in the coalition with the SPÖ."

He wouldn't say more about it, but we all know where this is heading towards ...

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ calls Kurz "Brutus" (one of the guys who killed Caesar) and wants him to come out of the woods about what he's intending to do.

[Tender Branson]

Meanwhile, Ö24 reports some "insider information" they received:

Kurz will take over the ÖVP on Sunday, when their federal committee will meet - and end the coalition with the SPÖ.

Snap elections in September or October are very likely now.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Burgenland and - far more important - Syria are for Kurz.

Kurz NEEDS snap elections, otherwise he would have missed his shot.

[TheSaint250]

Meanwhile, Ö24 reports some "insider information" they received:

Kurz will take over the ÖVP on Sunday, when their federal committee will meet - and end the coalition with the SPÖ.

Snap elections in September or October are very likely now.

How would the FPÖ do? They seem to have declined in the polls but remain pretty high.

[Tender Branson]

BREAKING NEWS:

Snap elections likely to be held on September 10 or 17, according to the Ö24 live ticker (which should be taken with a grain of salt, it's a tabloid).

Parliament to be dissolved in May.

[TheSaint250]

Also, looking at the polls, Kurz would lead ÖVP to victory, correct?

[ApatheticAustrian]

How would the FPÖ do? They seem to have declined in the polls but remain pretty high.

if kurz is the ÖVP candidate and recent polls are correct, the fpö would still do good (compard to historic levels) but fall about 5-8 points, while the ÖVP would surge massively, stealing voters from both FPÖ and SPÖ.

[TheSaint250]

How would the FPÖ do? They seem to have declined in the polls but remain pretty high.

if kurz is the ÖVP candidate and recent polls are correct, the fpö would still do good (compard to historic levels) but fall about 5-8 points, while the ÖVP would surge massively, stealing voters from both FPÖ and SPÖ.

Ok. It seems like right-wing populist parties fall in the polls closer to elections, so I assume ÖVP would take more from FPÖ than shown right now.

[Tender Branson]

Meanwhile, Ö24 reports some "insider information" they received:

Kurz will take over the ÖVP on Sunday, when their federal committee will meet - and end the coalition with the SPÖ.

Snap elections in September or October are very likely now.

How would the FPÖ do? They seem to have declined in the polls but remain pretty high.

The latest polls testing a matchup with Kurz were:

34-35% ÖVP
24-26% FPÖ
23-25% SPÖ
  9-10% Greens
    6-7% NEOS

Of course it remains to be seen if Kurz can hold this lead or not, now that he becomes ÖVP-leader. I guess it won't be sustainable during the campaign, but we'll see.

[Tender Branson]

Burgenland and - far more important - Syria Styria are for Kurz.

Kurz NEEDS snap elections, otherwise he would have missed his shot.

Tyrol apparently too:

Tyrol's ÖVP Governor Platter calls Kurz "the biggest talent we have in the party."

[DavidB.]

Exciting!

[Tender Branson]

September could be a mega-election month:

11th: Norway parliament
17th: Austria parliament
23rd: New Zealand parliament
24th: Germany parliament

[windjammer]

If Kurz wins, OVP-FPO likely ?

[TheSaint250]

If Kurz wins, OVP-FPO likely ?

It could be. I read that Kurz is hardline on Turkey and refugee crisis, so he could probably attract and form a coalition with the FPÖ.

[Tender Branson]

If Kurz wins, OVP-FPO likely ?

It could be. I read that Kurz is hardline on Turkey and refugee crisis, so he could probably attract and form a coalition with the FPÖ.

SPÖ-FPÖ or FPÖ-SPÖ is more likely at this point. The FPÖ has reservations about the ÖVP and thinks many of their social plans could be easier to pass with the SPÖ.

[Tender Branson]

Some reports now that Finance Minister Schelling could become acting ÖVP-leader and Vice-Chancellor on Sunday, until a party convention is held within 3 months.

That would give Kurz A) time to position himself for the coming elections and B) additional time to stay out of the toxic coalition climate.

If for example the ÖVP-convention takes place in late June, he could continue to be above the fray as foreign minister and jump right into the campaign undamaged as frontrunner in early July.

[Tender Branson]

Even if the ÖVP pulls out of the coalition on Sunday, new elections are not certain:

For new elections, parliament needs to be dissolved by a majority of MPs. The SPÖ and Kern want to keep on working until the regular election date (late 2018). So, if the ÖVP wants new elections they need at least 2 opposition parties to back their snap election request. The FPÖ and Strache have already said yesterday they would vote for this. But ÖVP+FPÖ are currently 3 MPs short of a majority in parliament. There are 4 independent MPs right now, 3 of them former FPÖ members. But if they'd vote for early elections, they'd lose their seats sooner than they want. So they will likely vote No. That leaves Greens, NEOS and TS. The TS has said they will vote against new elections. NEOS and Strolz yesterday said that the government has obviously failed, but he'd like a Scandinavian-style minority government of several parties to work out the remaining term because the voters deserve it and there's a lot left to do. The Greens lean towards backing new elections, but are also not opposed to the NEOS-option of a minority government. Meanwhile, Kern will talk with all parties in the next days to see if there's a possibility to keep on working without ÖVP and FPÖ ...

[Tender Branson]

Strache out with a huge attack against Kurz today:

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[Tender Branson]

In today's meeting of ÖVP-governors, all of them lined up behind Kurz as their new leader.

Tyrol Gov. Platter, who led the meeting, said that "people have enough of the coalition attacks and enough of this government".

[Tender Branson]

Minister for Health, Pamela Rendi-Wagner (SPÖ), went into full hero-mode today:

She was giving a speech to the Austrian-Israeli Society, when a woman in the audience collapsed and suffered a heart attack. The minister, who's a doctor, jumped down the podium and helped her.

http://www.krone.at/oesterreich/ministerin-rendi-wagner-rettete-frau-das-leben-kollaps-erlitten-story-568841

[Tender Branson]

Sebastian Kurz will give a short press conference at 11am.

It is expected that he will announce that he's taking over the ÖVP, after virtually everyone in the party has come out and backed him in the previous days. It will likely be made official on Sunday.

The questions remaining are: Will Kurz also take over the Vice-Chancellor post (unlikely) ?

Will he remain Minister of Foreign Affairs and Integration, or focus only on the party and the elections ?

And is the ÖVP willing to grant him much greater powers than recent party leaders had, to re-shape and reform the party like he wants ?

[Tender Branson]

Chancellor Kern's son has compared Kurz to former Ugandan dictator and mass-murderer Idi Amin:

http://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5215278/KanzlerSohn-vergleicht-Sebastian-Kurz-mit-Diktator-Idi-Amin

[Tender Branson]

Sebastian Kurz will give a short press conference at 11am.

It is expected that he will announce that he's taking over the ÖVP, after virtually everyone in the party has come out and backed him in the previous days. It will likely be made official on Sunday.

The questions remaining are: Will Kurz also take over the Vice-Chancellor post (unlikely) ?

Will he remain Minister of Foreign Affairs and Integration, or focus only on the party and the elections ?

And is the ÖVP willing to grant him much greater powers than recent party leaders had, to re-shape and reform the party like he wants ?

The "Presse" has learned that Kurz will indeed take over the party:

http://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5216475/Sebastian-Kurz-uebernimmt-die-OeVP