Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15

[Tender Branson]

BREAKING NEWS:

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Sebastian Kurz, the new ÖVP-leader, in the press conference that ended a few minutes ago.



Let the fun begin !

[ApatheticAustrian]

he is machiavelli.

[Tender Branson]

The influential Styrian ÖVP-governor just said:

"On Sunday, we will elect Sebastian Kurz as our new party leader and we will give him the full powers and freedoms to re-shape the party according to his ideas and to present a new federal team. The press statement by Kurz was refreshing and new elections will be held in the fall and these new elections would be the honest choice."

[Diouf]

Are there any significant wings in the ÖVP which Kurz wants to decrease/increase the influence of? I mean, is it mostly personal issues or are there clear policy differences between Kurz and other influential members? I believe, he has been quite keen on the extraterritorial migrant camps and pretty tough on migration in general?

[Tender Branson]

Are there any significant wings in the ÖVP which Kurz wants to decrease/increase the influence of? I mean, is it mostly personal issues or are there clear policy differences between Kurz and other influential members? I believe, he has been quite keen on the extraterritorial migrant camps and pretty tough on migration in general?

There are several wings within the ÖVP, namely the farmers, the young ÖVP, the workers/employees, the ÖVP-women, the seniors, the businesses and business-owners and self-employed and of course the powerful states and their governors/organisations.

Kurz doesn't have the luxury in the next few weeks/months to push aside representatives of one or the other wing, but needs to be careful to include people from every branch in his new team and also on the ÖVP-lists for the early elections. That's simply how the ÖVP works and always worked. Even though high-ranking ÖVP politicians now say they will grant Kurz more powers to re-shape the party, this will still be hard to do with all the different interests and positions. It will be a first significant test of Kurz's leadership skills. Of course, the last few months were brutal and the infights played a large part in Mitterlehner's resignation and there are also enemies within the party that could be a problem for Kurz. Some of them have a personal problem with him, some are opposed to his more hardline positions on immigration. But in general, the party will line up nicely behind Kurz I guess - with the governors etc. still having enough to say.

Also, the new Research Affairs poll for Ö24 (probably conducted in the last few days):

[Tender Branson]

There's some unfinished business left in the parliament, so Kurz said he's willing to "work" with the SPÖ on these things until the end of June. This is also part of the Greens' plan: keep passing things that were already worked on and that are important to Austrians and then dissolve parliament.

This would mean the election would be held a little later, probably on October 1 - because the election calendar needs to start running 3 months before the election. And I guess the date won't be the same as Germany's: September 24.

[ApatheticAustrian]

i strongly doubt that so many spö voters would switch to kurz....would need tons of non-voters.

[Babeuf]

Kurz seems super inflated right now. Might jump a few points after this announcement but then it's all going to be downhill imo.

[mgop]

does fpo and spo have common ground on some issues? is that coalition possible?

[ApatheticAustrian]

does fpo and spo have common ground on some issues? is that coalition possible?

theoretically...yes.

practically...no.

the fpö is a party which always flaunts left-wing welfare policies and then governs like a neoliberal party.

they only get the benefit of the doubt right now cause federal state governments are different anyway and the old leadership is gone.

if they want to actually DO their big-spending promises they should govern with the SPÖ...if they are continuing their pro-biz, anti-poor governing streak, they should ally with kurz.

problem would be...it would totally help the SPÖ and alienate many old-school-SPÖ-voters.

[mvd10]

Where does Kurz stand in the ÖVP? Is he on the right of the party? And is he a social conservative?

[mgop]

does fpo and spo have common ground on some issues? is that coalition possible?

theoretically...yes.

practically...no.

the fpö is a party which always flaunts left-wing welfare policies and then governs like a neoliberal party.

they only get the benefit of the doubt right now cause federal state governments are different anyway and the old leadership is gone.

if they want to actually DO their big-spending promises they should govern with the SPÖ...if they are continuing their pro-biz, anti-poor governing streak, they should ally with kurz.

problem would be...it would totally help the SPÖ and alienate many old-school-SPÖ-voters.

fpo is like eastern european right wing parties then, thanks

[ApatheticAustrian]

Where does Kurz stand in the ÖVP? Is he on the right of the party? And is he a social conservative?

in the past he was to the left of the majority of his party on social issues and presented himself as center-sh, since 2015 he plays the right-of-the-right-strongman-type and savior of the nation.

[Tender Branson]

Where does Kurz stand in the ÖVP? Is he on the right of the party? And is he a social conservative?

Kurz is like a political chameleon. Nobody really knows where he stands on issues other than the ones concerning his job: foreign policy, immigration and integration.

I found an interview from WOMAN magazine, from 2009, in which the then 23-year old Kurz also talked about some social issues such as abortion (which he personally opposes, prefers adoption but says every woman should decide on her own), in which he supports gay marriage and says he never smoked pot so far because he has asthma and that he had sex for the first time at the age of 15.

https://www.woman.at/a/integrationsstaatssekretaer-sebastian-kurz-woman-interview-294949

Don't know if his views are still the same in 2017, but he will definitely have to take a position on many issues during the summer and fall campaign ...

[Tender Branson]

Chancellor Kern (SPÖ) is upping the pressure on Sebastian Kurz (ÖVP):

He has started backroom talks with all opposition parties to avoid new elections and to form some kind of minority government instead. And it seems to work: While Greens and NEOS are generally in favour of new elections, they also agree with Kern that it would be better for now to keep on working on solutions that matter to voters. The Team Stronach of course is also against new elections (because they'd lose their well-paid jobs a year earlier). The question just is: how is this "minority" government going to work ?

SPÖ+Greens+NEOS+TS together have 90 seats. ÖVP+FPÖ together have 89 seats. 4 seats are Independents (3 former FPÖ-members, 1 former TS member). These 4 independents are certainly not voting for new elections, because they'd also lose their jobs a year earlier than planned - but could torpedo the minority government when they want to pass laws.

Kern knows that voters do not want early elections, so that's why he wants to keep on working - while he can portray Kurz as the one who blows the government up because of his ego.

Also, Kern called on Kurz today to immediately resign as Foreign Minister. He also threatened to kick out all ÖVP-ministers on Monday ...

[ApatheticAustrian]

i love kern cause he is brave/crazy enough to couter-punch against machiavellian ÖVP tactics.

the longer this would play out, the weaker kurz could become.

[rob in cal]

  Maybe there could be some political/financial bribe/offer to get the independents to vote for early elections? 

[ApatheticAustrian]

  Maybe there could be some political/financial bribe/offer to get the independents to vote for early elections? 

theoretically yes.

practically...those guys have been ousted, sometimes by several parties and are mostly jerks.

[rob in cal]

  If Kern's idea goes through, then maybe OVP-FPO will get used to cooperating in parliament now and then keep it up after the next election whenever that is.

[Tender Branson]

  If Kern's idea goes through, then maybe OVP-FPO will get used to cooperating in parliament now and then keep it up after the next election whenever that is.

Yeah, Kern is playing a dangerous game. It's not certain that the FPÖ will end up picking the SPÖ as their coalition partner after the new elections. They might also end up in a coalition with the ÖVP after all, either as largest party - or if Kurz maintains his positive image - as junior partner. If Kurz wins the elections and the FPÖ comes second or third, Strache could retire after 12 years - saying that he has achieved everything he wanted by bringing the FPÖ into government and leaving the Vice-Chancellor post to Norbert Hofer (or someone else, if Hofer wants to run for President again in 2022). Strache would never want to become Vice-Chancellor. So, in this case Kern's chess game would be over and Kurz could declare check-mate because he won the election, entered a Black-Blue coalition and the Kern-SPÖ is pushed into opposition.

[Tender Branson]

BTW:

The ÖVP's federal committee meeting will start tomorrow at 6pm.

We'll probably know after a couple hours if Kurz was elected party leader and what the ÖVP wants when it comes to new elections and resctructuring of the party.

[Tender Branson]

Kurz has outlined 7 wide-ranging demands to the federal ÖVP-committee tomorrow, as a pre-condition for him taking over as party leader - one of which includes running on an own independent Macron- or VdB-like list, backed by the ÖVP but also other important/influential people. Others include 50% women on his movement's list for the next elections and the ability to shape the list according to his own ideas and not the party's ideas:

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It will be interesting to see if the ÖVP is willing to give him all the powers and the mandate that he wants.

[Tender Branson]

People on the [left-liberal] "Standard" forum are starting to compare Kurz to Recep "Megalomaniac" Erdogan.

[Tender Branson]

Next week the annual Austrian Meeting of Cities and Towns will take place here in Zell am See between WED and FRI at the Porsche Congress Center. Chancellor Kern, President Van der Bellen, Vienna mayor Häupl, Salzburg Governor Haslauer and some federal cabinet members will attend and deliver speeches. The problem is that Kern will speak at 10am and VdB at 3pm, so I cannot attend ...

[Tender Branson]

Internal SPÖ-poll, conducted by SPÖ-leaning IFES institute for the SPÖ parliamentary club:



http://www.krone.at/oesterreich/spannender-dreikampf-um-das-kanzleramt-ifes-umfrage-story-569130

If an SPÖ-internal only has the race tied after all the recent events, it almost certainly means that Kurz is currently ahead in the real polling. The question is just ... by how much ?