Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15

[Tender Branson]

The NEOS delegation in the next parliament could be majority-female.

The 1st stage of the NEOS primaries (citizen voting) ended today and after party leader Strolz (who was easily re-elected for 1st place), there are 6 women among the 10 places behind him.

And if Irmgard Griss gets a "wildcard" during the final stages of the primaries (party member vote + federal committee vote), then it will be even more female.

The liberal NEOS can expect some 8-14 seats in the election.

[Tender Branson]

The NEOS delegation in the next parliament could be majority-female.

The 1st stage of the NEOS primaries (citizen voting) ended today and after party leader Strolz (who was easily re-elected for 1st place), there are 6 women among the 10 places behind him.

And if Irmgard Griss gets a "wildcard" during the final stages of the primaries (party member vote + federal committee vote), then it will be even more female.

The liberal NEOS can expect some 8-14 seats in the election.

Here are the women that could be in the next parliament, assuming NEOS gets some 7% and 14 seats:

Irmgard Griss (could get a wildcard as an "Independent", maybe ranked 2nd on the list ?)



Beate Meinl-Reisinger (current Vienna NEOS-leader, 2nd in the primaries, would switch from Vienna state parliament to the Austrian parliament)



Claudia Gamon (already an MP, 3rd in the primaries)



Eva-Maria Meidl (totally new candidate or MP, 8th in the primaries)



Stephanie Krisper (totally new candidate or MP, 9th in the primaries)



Karin Doppelbauer (already an MP, 10th in the primaries)



Anna Vetter (totally new candidate or MP, 11th in the primaries)



Judith Raab (totally new candidate or MP, 12th in the primaries)



Doris Hager-Hämmerle (totally new candidate or MP, 14th in the primaries)

[Tender Branson]

A brutal double murder case currently shocks Austria and politics:

A Muslim delivery driver from Tunisia has killed an old couple in Linz and burned down their house because he thought they were FPÖ voters and he blamed the FPÖ for all his personal misery.

Chancellor Kern has issued a statement on this disgusting crime, calling it "heinous".

The killings have an IS background, according to statements from Interior Minister Sobotka today.

The suspect travelled to Tunisia in 2015, grew a long beard and radicalized there. Back in Austria he developed a significant hatred against the FPÖ and society and the innocent old, blind couple had to die in such a gruesome manner ...

http://mobil.derstandard.at/2000060858844/Sobotka-Doppelmord-in-Linz-hat-IS-Hintergrund

[Tender Branson]

English article about the disgusting Muslim killing from Friday with an IS-background:

Austria elderly couple murder was Islamist killing

Sophie Makris
AFP
Vienna | Thu, July 6, 2017 | 07:30 am

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2017/07/06/austria-elderly-couple-murder-was-islamist-killing.html

[ApatheticAustrian]

I am not really convinced.

This was a personal killing and the guy went to the police himself.

Radicalized for sure, stupid af for sure - but this would be the exception of all the IS murders.

[Tender Branson]

I am not really convinced.

This was a personal killing and the guy went to the police himself.

Radicalized for sure, stupid af for sure - but this would be the exception of all the IS murders.

Not all IS-killers are the same ... and blowing themselves up etc.

Police found clear evidence on the killer's computer, such as social media and chat protocolls that showed his growing love for IS over the past year, plus a rising degree of radicalisation and hatred against the FPÖ and Austrian society.

[Tender Branson]

Independent 2016 Pres. candidate Irmgard Griss officially joined NEOS today, at a press conference with party leader Strolz.

For the election, NEOS might even change their list name on the ballot to "Alliance for Freedom and Responsibility" and also with "NEOS" and "Irmgard Griss" in it.

The candidacy of Griss and list name change will have to be agreed on by the party members and committee this weekend with 2/3 of the vote.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/griss-und-neos-bilden-gemeinsame-allianz/273.615.637

[Tender Branson]

An anti-FPÖ platform for the election has been launched, called "Because it counts".

Mostly (semi)-influential SPÖ, Green and NEOS folks and big-spenders like Haselsteiner (a construction millionaire) are among them.

http://derstandard.at/2000060894653/Haselsteiner-Ederer-und-Co-starteten-Anti-FPOe-Plattform

Haselsteiner & Co. already launched an anti-Hofer campaign last year, targeting the FPÖ's wish for an Auxit. The FPÖ later had to backtrack because Austrians like to remain in the EU.

[Tender Branson]

First public poll testing a Peter Pilz list (Research Affairs for ÖSTERREICH, July 4-6):

34% ÖVP (n.c.)
25% FPÖ (n.c.)
23% SPÖ (-1)
  6% Greens (-2)
  5% PILZ (+5)
  4% NEOS (-1)
  3% Others (-1)

Without Pilz:

34% ÖVP
25% FPÖ
24% SPÖ
  8% Greens
  5% NEOS
  4% Others

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20170706_OTS0214/neue-oesterreich-umfrage-pilz-schafft-einzug-in-nationalrat-und-stoppt-aufholjagd-von-kern

[mvd10]

The Pilz list would kill off any chance of an ÖVP-Greens-NEOS coalition right? Anyway I love his name. Reminds me of prins Pils

[DavidB.]

Austrian students: Lean Green --------> Safe PILZ

[Tender Branson]

The Pilz list would kill off any chance of an ÖVP-Greens-NEOS coalition right? Anyway I love his name. Reminds me of prins Pils

Almost everything is pointing towards ÖVP-FPÖ right now after the election ...

Austrian students: Lean Green --------> Safe PILZ

Students have a higher than average Green-voting history, yeah. I think they would split evenly between the 2 groups.

But we still don't know if Pilz actually runs his own list. The Eurofighter investigation committee will last until next Wednesday and the new election date will be set in parliament on Thursday. Pilz will only then make his intentions clear. But I guess he'll go for it.

[mgop]

if ovp-fpo coalition is realistic, is that mean fpo will betray its voters after election or austria really going in "far right" direction? also what are the odds of kpo-young greens?

[ApatheticAustrian]

if ovp-fpo coalition is realistic, is that mean fpo will betray its voters after election or austria really going in "far right" direction? also what are the odds of kpo-young greens?

do you mean far-right western-european style, far-right eastern-european style or something else?

at best this will be visengrad - lite.

[mgop]

if ovp-fpo coalition is realistic, is that mean fpo will betray its voters after election or austria really going in "far right" direction? also what are the odds of kpo-young greens?

do you mean far-right western-european style, far-right eastern-european style or something else?

at best this will be visengrad - lite.

well at least trump style...

[Tender Branson]

Former Green-MP Efgani Dönmez (who got kicked out by the Greens because he wasn't "immigration-friendly" enough for them) will join the ÖVP. He will be placed 5th on their list.

Dönmez, a trained social worker with Turkish roots, once heavily attacked Erdogan-supporters in Austria and called on them "to fly home" if they are not integrating here.

After being ousted by the Greens, he became an "integration ambassador" in Kurz's Foreign and Integration Ministry.



https://kurier.at/politik/inland/ex-gruener-efgani-doenmez-kandidiert-auf-liste-kurz/273.807.968

[ApatheticAustrian]

well at least trump style...

not very likely.

the fpö would be the declining junior partner of a all-powerful neo-conservative strongman.

kurz won't fight against the media or say stupid stuff.

[ApatheticAustrian]

who got kicked out by the Greens because he wasn't "immigration-friendly" enough for them

this is not correct.

he may have lost his seat for being judges as a troublemaker by the party elite but he didn't lose his party membership cause of this.

[Tender Branson]

who got kicked out by the Greens because he wasn't "immigration-friendly" enough for them

this is not correct.

he may have lost his seat for being judges as a troublemaker by the party elite but he didn't lose his party membership cause of this.

Fact is that the Greens have become a politically-correct sect over the past few years - who are not tolerating other opinions other than their pro-immigration ones (even though there are signifcant excesses such as crime and welfare abuse because of it). If someone, like Dönmez, attacks these developments, he gets ousted ... No wonder the Greens are heading off the cliff this election.

[Tender Branson]

Older Spectra poll which was released today (it was actually conducted between June 7-29):



http://www.tt.com/politik/innenpolitik/13189783-91/dreikampf-um-den-kanzler-kurz-hype-k%C3%BChlt-etwas-ab.csp

Spectra is generally a good pollster, but this one looks a bit odd. Maybe because it was conducted over 3 weeks.

[Tender Branson]

Irmgard Griss will be placed 2nd on the NEOS list.

Over the weekend, NEOS will hold a party meeting in which 2/3 of party members have to vote in favour of Griss and her "wildcard" (because she did not participate in their primaries).

Also, the full list name has been released:

"NEOS - Das Neue Österreich gemeinsam mit Irmgard Griss, Bürgerinnen und Bürger für Freiheit und Verantwortung."

("NEOS - The New Austria together with Irmgard Griss, Citizens for Freedom and Responsibility.")

The short name on the ballot will still be "NEOS" though.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/irmgard-griss-auf-platz-zwei-der-bundesliste-so-lautet-der-listenname-der-neos/273.826.048

[Tender Branson]

Chancellor Kern went hiking in (Upper) Styria, which is the Ohio/Pennsylvania of Austria:



Long a Social Democratic stronghold because of the production, mining and steel industry there, it trended strongly towards the FPÖ in recent years.

Kern wants to reverse that trend, but I'm sceptical that he can succeed: If anything, these former SPÖ-voters will either stick with the FPÖ or vote for Kurz (and to a smaller degree Pilz and KPÖ) this time.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/wanderung-mit-kanzler-kern-bewegung-auf-rot-blauem-battleground/273.880.011

[Tender Branson]

Irmgard Griss will be placed 2nd on the NEOS list.

Over the weekend, NEOS will hold a party meeting in which 2/3 of party members have to vote in favour of Griss and her "wildcard" (because she did not participate in their primaries).

Griss and her "wildcard" approved almost unanimously by the delegates:

[Tender Branson]

Griss received 98.65% among the 518 delegates that voted.

7 voted against her.

[Kamala]

That's got to at least improve NEOS's chances by a little, right? Griss is well-liked, correct?