Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15

[Tender Branson]

New "Market" poll for the "Standard" newspaper (Dec. 13-15):

31% FPÖ
25% SPÖ
22% ÖVP
12% Greens
  6% NEOS
  4% Others

"On December 4, the new President of Austria was elected. How satisfied are you with the results ?"

53% Very/Somewhat satisfied (29 very, 24 somewhat)
41% Very/Somewhat unsatisfied (26 very, 15 somewhat)

100% of Green voters are satisfied with the results, 90% of FPÖ voters are not.

About 8 in 10 SPÖ voters are satisfied with the results, as are about 7 in 10 ÖVP voters.

http://derstandard.at/2000049506772/Van-der-Bellens-Sieg-nuetzte-den-Gruenen-bisher-nicht

[Tender Branson]

Norbert Hofer's 25 minute interview (in English) on Russia Today, if anyone is interested:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=18WDDpw4L9E

[Tender Branson]

All Austrian parties today strongly attacked the FPÖ's trip to Russia, especially considering Russia's current scorched earth campaign in Aleppo in support of Assad.

Turns out the FPÖ delegation even signed a "working contract" with Putin's United Russia party !

http://derstandard.at/2000049541332/Blaue-Moskau-Reise-fuer-Mitterlehner-grob-daneben

http://derstandard.at/2000049543544-1528/Niedermuehlbichler-ueber-FPOe-Ein-bissl-an-KGB-erinnert-das-schon

http://derstandard.at/2000049497726/FPOe-fuehrt-mysterioese-Arbeitsgespraeche-in-Moskau

[ApatheticAustrian]

contract is crazy


https://twitter.com/Claus_Pandi/status/810576622780841984/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw


they promise to share information about austrian politics, bilateral and international relationships,  creation of party structures, youth policy and....."areas of mutual interest"..whatever that means.

[Mike88]

contract is crazy


https://twitter.com/Claus_Pandi/status/810576622780841984/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw


they promise to share information about austrian politics, bilateral and international relationships,  creation of party structures, youth policy and....."areas of mutual interest"..whatever that means.

What a crazy and stupid move!! God! If that poll is right, the FPO is already losing steam and this contract could backfire. What are the chances of an early 2017 election if the FPO crashes in the polls?

[Tender Branson]

Hopefully the media will report heavily on the FPÖ's continued filthy boot-licking of Putin.

And hopefully many Austrians and some FPÖ-voters will turn away in disgust ...

[ApatheticAustrian]

besides the liberal standard the socialconservative boulevard monolith Kronenzeitung not only broke the story but frames it as a question of twisted allegiances.

[Tender Branson]

A couple more maps from the Presidential runoff on December 4:

(right-click for better resolution)

VdB strength by town:



Hofer strength by town:



VdB strength by district:



Hofer strength by district:



Towns that changed between the May runoff and the December runoff:



Districts that changed between the May runoff and the December runoff:



Vienna, by precinct (December runoff, left vs. May runoff, right)



Vienna, VdB strength by precinct (December runoff, left vs. May runoff, right)



Vienna, Hofer strength by precinct (December runoff, left vs. May runoff, right)

[Tender Branson]

btw....live from moscow:




FPÖ-EU leader and self-tazing idiot Vilimsky, FPÖ chief Strache, presidential candidate Hofer and Strache's successor (in Vienna and maybe also on a national level) Gudenus.

LOL, from the Austrian satirical newspaper "Tagespresse":

"Four men on vacation without women: Russia arrests FPÖ-delegation on suspicion of homosexuality."

http://dietagespresse.com/vier-maenner-ohne-frauen-auf-urlaub-russland-inhaftiert-fpoe-spitze-wegen-homosexuellenverdachts

[Tender Branson]

New Tyrol state election (-> 2018) poll:

41% ÖVP (+2 compared with 2013)
21% FPÖ (+12)
14% Greens (+1)
14% SPÖ (n.c.)
  4% NEOS (+4)
  4% FRITZ (-2)
  2% Others (-17)

http://www.krone.at/tirol/vp-und-gruene-liegen-bei-55-prozent-fpoe-verdoppelt-ifap-umfrage-story-545190

The current state government is ÖVP-Greens.

[Tender Branson]

New Salzburg state election (-> 2018) poll:

38% ÖVP (+9 compared with 2013)
21% FPÖ (+4)
19% Greens (-1)
12% SPÖ (-12)
  4% FPS (+4)
  4% SBG (+4)
  2% NEOS (+2)
  0% Others (-10)

http://www.meinbezirk.at/salzburg-stadt/politik/oevp-und-gruene-kommen-in-sonntagsfrage-auf-satte-mehrheit-d1967157.html

The current state government is ÖVP-Greens-SBG.

[ApatheticAustrian]

the western SPÖ is just finished.....

[Tender Branson]

the western SPÖ is just finished.....

Yepp.

The fall of the Salzburg-SPÖ is especially dramatic:

2004 state election: 45%
2009 state election: 39%
2013 state election: 24%
Todays GMK/BB poll: 12%

[rob in cal]

  So have the former SPO voters gone both to the FPO and the Greens?

[ApatheticAustrian]

  So have the former SPO voters gone both to the FPO and the Greens?

 in salzburg many of them are now ÖVP voters, strange as that may sound.

[Tender Branson]

  So have the former SPO voters gone both to the FPO and the Greens?

 in salzburg many of them are now ÖVP voters, strange as that may sound.

Some, but not all too many.

Many former SPÖ-voters went to the Greens, who went from around 8% to around 19-20% now.

Many also went to the FPÖ, which went from 15% around 12 years ago to about 25% now (combining the 2 FPÖs in the state right now).

Some others have gone to NEOS and SBG (ex-Team Stronach).

That only leaves a tiny part going to the ÖVP, which is largely stable at 38% (which is what they got in 2004 and 2009).

But yeah, the financial/investment scandal in Salzburg in 2011/12 and the departure of Gov. Gabriele Burgstaller really did the SPÖ in.

Meanwhile, after all the financial trouble 5 years ago - Salzburg's finances are back in order:

The ÖVP-Green government recently passed the 2017 and 2018 budgets, with no deficits for both years.

Also, the debt level (which ballooned because of the investment scandal) is now down 300 million from the peak in 2012 and will fall another 100 million until the end of 2017, to around 1.9 billion €.

[Tender Branson]

The Presidential runoff from December 4 will be totally official today at midnight, if no person challenges the results at the Constitutional Court.

So far, nobody has ...

[Tender Branson]

The Presidential runoff from December 4 will be totally official today at midnight, if no person challenges the results at the Constitutional Court.

So far, nobody has ...

The midnight deadline has passed, nobody has filed a challenge and Alexander Van der Bellen is now officially the President-elect.

He will be sworn in on January 26, 2017 at 10am - in a joint session of both chambers of Parliament. Sonja Ledl-Rossmann (ÖVP) will administer VdB's oath of office.

http://derstandard.at/2000049765689/Es-ist-fix-Van-der-Bellen-ist-gewaehlter-Bundespraesident

[Tender Branson]

Year-End OGM/Kurier poll:



From top to bottom:

"Did the following politician make a good or bad impression to you in 2016 ?"

Kern: 49-32 good

and so on.

"Was 2016 a good or bad year for you personally ?"

54% Good
30% Bad

and by party and age.

"Did 2016 turn out better or worse for you personally than imagined at the start of the year ?"

24% Better
20% Worse
54% As expected

and by party.

[Tender Branson]

SPÖ parliamentary club leader Andreas Schieder said today that he prefers to limit postal voting as a part of next year's election reform package:

Schieder said he wants to limit postal/absentee voting "to only those who need it" (like Austrians abroad, elderly, sick and disabled people).

Schieder thinks that precinct voting is "the best way to enable a fully democratic and accurate result", with postal voting only a last resort. Much like the current system in the Netherlands.

He also wants to establish an early voting day, which would be held about a week before election day (mostly for those who are absent on election day).

Schieder also said that there might be a discussion about universal opening and closing times for every precinct (currently, each community can set their own opening and closing times, some even close at noon already).

The FPÖ was very quick to come out and applaud Schieder's opinions and said they look forward to debating the reform plans with the SPÖ next year.

On the other hand, the ÖVP wants to introduce e-voting (especially for Austrians abroad), which Schieder and the FPÖ strongly oppose.


http://diepresse.com/home/politik/innenpolitik/5138993/SPOeKlubchef-Schieder-will-Briefwahl-eindaemmen

[Tender Branson]

The ÖVP also favours an early voting day ahead of federal elections, according to news reports today.

This means it's rather likely that the introduction will be part of the election reform next year.

Some states such as Styria and Carinthia already have an early voting day for state elections (neither did this early voting day lead to higher turnout overall, nor did it lead to fewer people requesting postal ballots. It seems early voters are usual election day voters, who are voting early).

Still, I find an early voting day helpful. And limiting postal voting - like Schieder wants it - will be hard to pass, because the ÖVP is not convinced about it anyway.

The Greens are against limiting postal voting, calling it a "step backwards".

NEOS also wants an early voting day.

http://derstandard.at/2000049889971/OeVP-will-wie-SPOe-zweiten-Wahltag

[Tender Branson]

A new Tyrol state election poll, conducted recently for the "TT" newspaper:



http://www.tt.com/politik/landespolitik/12422444-91/gemischte-gef%C3%BChle-in-der-koalition.csp

[windjammer]

A new Tyrol state election poll, conducted recently for the "TT" newspaper:



http://www.tt.com/politik/landespolitik/12422444-91/gemischte-gef%C3%BChle-in-der-koalition.csp

So OVP-FPO likely?

[Tender Branson]

A new Tyrol state election poll, conducted recently for the "TT" newspaper:



http://www.tt.com/politik/landespolitik/12422444-91/gemischte-gef%C3%BChle-in-der-koalition.csp

So OVP-FPO likely?

Nope. Not at all.

The current state government is ÖVP-Greens and from what I understand (reading some Tyrol-related newspaper articles here and then) the coalition is doing a good job. The coalition climate is great as well, both parties are seen to be doing a good job by the public as well.

Therefore, a continuation of ÖVP-Greens is the most likely scenario after the 2018 election.

[Tender Branson]

So with the Graz city council election coming up, what trends should we be looking for?  If the FPO is Austria's strongest party now, what type of performance should they be looking for in Graz?   Whats the current administration like now, and would a big FPO win change the city government?

Municipal elections always have their own dynamics and the FPÖ always does much worse when compared with federal elections. I doubt they will get more than 25% in Graz, also because the Nagl-ÖVP is quite strong. The SPÖ is extremely weak and the KPÖ really strong. The Greens have a new leader there so they might not improve much.

I guess the results will not have much of an impact on federal politics.

Some background on why the Communists are so strong in Graz (15%) - (and to some extent in the state of Styria), but are below 1% in the rest of Austria:

Altruism and a strong advocacy for underpriviledged people

Every year, the KPÖ-politicians in Styria donate all their salaries above the average wage of a worker (1500-2000€ a month) to underpriviledged people.

For example, a KPÖ city council member would earn 6000€ a month - 14x a year.

But 4000-4500€ are going to people in need.



More than 100.000€ a year have been re-allocated to people in need, paying their daily food, hygiene products, pay their rents (which are increasing significantly each year), helping them with legal costs if they are forcefully evicted or to prevent them from being evicted and so on ...

Since 1998, the Graz-KPÖ has donated about 2 million € to people in need - a HUGE sum for a small city party.

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The KPÖ is also virtually the only party that offers advice and legal council for people with precarious work, low wages and housing problems (historically a topic where the SPÖ outperformed). No wonder the SPÖ dropped from 70% in the 1970s to 12% now ...

More than 6.000 people asked the Graz-KPÖ for legal council and support in 2016 alone !

http://derstandard.at/2000049932532/Steirische-KPOe-vergab-100-000-Euro-ihrer-Bezuege-an-Beduerftige