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ag
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« Reply #75 on: January 08, 2017, 10:27:41 am »
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Tbf I support Ukraine, but oppose sanctions. The sanctions just hurt ordinary Russians and inflame nationalism even further - like most sanctions for that matter.

The sanctions that really hurt ordinary Russians have been imposed by the government of Russia on its own people "in retaliation": precisely because the Western-imposed sanctions hurt not the ordinary Russians, but those personally guilty for what has happened. The long-running joke among the Russians is that in retaliation for the next round of sanctions Russian government will order carpet bombing of Voronezh.
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« Reply #76 on: January 08, 2017, 10:31:55 am »
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Tbf I support Ukraine, but oppose sanctions. The sanctions just hurt ordinary Russians and inflame nationalism even further - like most sanctions for that matter.

The sanctions against Russia are not really popular among Austrian business leaders and farmers, who export a lot of goods and food to Russia.

And business people and farmers are core constituencies of the VP, so Kurz's move to end the sanctions step-by-step is understandable in the long-term if he really wants to become party leader next year. He needs all the intra-party support he can get.
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« Reply #77 on: January 08, 2017, 12:02:18 pm »
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It seems tabloid "24" switched pollsters, dumping Gallup and partnering with Research Affairs (which seems to be led by a former Gallup employee) ...

The new results are not really that different when compared with their last - Gallup - poll:



Also interesting:

By a 61-9 margin, Austrians say Sebastian Kurz should lead the VP as frontrunner in the next federal election, rather than incumbent Reinhold Mitterlehner.

And asked about a Kurz-leadership, 61% say the VP would benefit electorally, 21% say there would be no change and 6% say it would hurt the VP.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Absturz-OeVP-im-Umfrage-Keller/264736058
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« Reply #78 on: January 09, 2017, 10:28:15 am »
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I will do monthly polls on top of the page on various political issues in Austria, in which you can vote.

The January poll is about the chances of SPVP blowing up this year or lasting until the regular election year 2018.

Poll will close on Jan. 31 and a new poll will be added ...

Have fun !
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« Reply #79 on: January 09, 2017, 10:09:35 pm »
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Tbf I support Ukraine, but oppose sanctions. The sanctions just hurt ordinary Russians and inflame nationalism even further - like most sanctions for that matter.

The sanctions against Russia are not really popular among Austrian business leaders and farmers, who export a lot of goods and food to Russia.

And business people and farmers are core constituencies of the VP, so Kurz's move to end the sanctions step-by-step is understandable in the long-term if he really wants to become party leader next year. He needs all the intra-party support he can get.

The sanctions on farmers/business people have been imposed by the Russian government, not by EU.
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This is the year which people will talk about
This is the year which people will be silent about.
The old see the young die.
The foolish see the wise die.

The earth no longer produces, it devours.
The sky hurls down no rain, only iron.

Bertolt Brecht
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« Reply #80 on: January 10, 2017, 08:17:52 am »
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The number of Catholics dropped to a new record low at the end of 2016, according to a new report out today:

59% of Austrians are now Catholic (5.16 million), but that number is down 1% compared with a year ago.

For example, during Census 2001 (the last to survey religion), about 74% were Catholics.

That means the Catholic share among the population will drop to below 50% in the year 2025.

The number of Protestants is in a similar decline: Their share went from about 6.5% of the population in 1971 to about 3.2% now, while other Christians represent about 3% of the population.

Altogether, about 65% are now Christian.

The number of Muslims, like those of the non-religious, is rising rapidely:

In 1971, there were only a handful of Muslims in Austria (0% of the population).

In 1991, it rose to 2% and in 2001 to 4.2%

The latest estimate (incl. the mostly Muslim immigrants from the past few years) put the percentage to around 8% of the population. This is expected to rise to around 10% by 2020.

To sum it up:

59% Catholics
  3% Protestants
  3% Other Christians
  8% Muslims
  1% Others (Jewish, Hindu, Buddhists etc.)
26% No religion (or former members)

http://derstandard.at/2000050476867/Zahl-der-Kirchenaustritte-2016-leicht-gesunken
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« Reply #81 on: January 10, 2017, 03:14:09 pm »
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The number of Catholics dropped to a new record low at the end of 2016, according to a new report out today:

59% of Austrians are now Catholic (5.16 million), but that number is down 1% compared with a year ago.

For example, during Census 2001 (the last to survey religion), about 74% were Catholics.

That means the Catholic share among the population will drop to below 50% in the year 2025.

The number of Protestants is in a similar decline: Their share went from about 6.5% of the population in 1971 to about 3.2% now, while other Christians represent about 3% of the population.

Altogether, about 65% are now Christian.

The number of Muslims, like those of the non-religious, is rising rapidely:

In 1971, there were only a handful of Muslims in Austria (0% of the population).

In 1991, it rose to 2% and in 2001 to 4.2%

The latest estimate (incl. the mostly Muslim immigrants from the past few years) put the percentage to around 8% of the population. This is expected to rise to around 10% by 2020.

To sum it up:

59% Catholics
  3% Protestants
  3% Other Christians
  8% Muslims
  1% Others (Jewish, Hindu, Buddhists etc.)
26% No religion (or former members)

http://derstandard.at/2000050476867/Zahl-der-Kirchenaustritte-2016-leicht-gesunken

Isn't the number of Orthodox Christians higher than 3%?
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« Reply #82 on: January 11, 2017, 12:59:43 am »
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Isn't the number of Orthodox Christians higher than 3%?

I didn't find up-to-date membership numbers for the Orthodox Churches ...

The 2001 Census had about 200.000 "other Christians" counted, of which about 170.000 were Orthodox.

Contrary to Catholics and Protestants (which are declining), I think Orthodox Churches increased over the past 15 years, because of an influx in Serbs, Romanians, Bulgarians, Greeks, Russians etc.

So 3% (= 270.000 people) sounds OK.

Maybe 4%.
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« Reply #83 on: January 11, 2017, 01:39:55 am »
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What's next ?

On Jan. 11, Chancellor Kern (SP) will give a "major" speech on the economy and jobs and what the SP will do about it this year.

He will do so in Wels, a big city which has elected a FP-mayor for the first time in 2015. Apparently, this is to win back some FP-voters.

This is today.

Chancellor Christian Kern's speech will start at 5:30 pm at the Wels Congress Center and he'll speak in front of 1500 invited guests.



His speech (titled "Why wait ? It's time to get things to work now") is described by the media more like a "State of the Nation" speech, rather than a SP-specific one.

"Obama-style" speeches by Austrian politicians are rather rare and mostly delivered only at special occasions, such as historical events.

But the Kern-speech today was planned for a long time, it will be very detailed and extensive (a 145-page folder with an updated SP-platform will be released and handed out after the speech).

The speech will first and foremost focus on the economy and jobs, with Kern promising to create an additional 200.000 jobs over the next 4 years and bringing down unemployment. He will also present incentives for start-up companies, less bureaucracy for business owners and fairer taxes.

His second big theme will be education, health, pensions and care for older people. He'll put an emphasis on making Austrian kids much smarter to compete in today's economy, investing in digital school books, free tablets and laptops for kids and free WiFi in every classroom etc.

It will also be live-streamed, heavily reported and discussed on social media and a lot of press and media will cover it.

So, this is more like Kern's campaign kickoff event for the 2017/18 election year, rather than a normal speech.

And the setting of the speech in the city of Wels, as I mentioned above, is an attack on the FP - to win back the struggling middle-class who more and more tends to abandon the SP for the FP.

http://www.krone.at/oesterreich/wie-christian-kern-weiter-kanzler-bleiben-will-rede-an-die-nation-story-548032
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« Reply #84 on: January 12, 2017, 02:58:12 am »
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Chancellor Kern's speech yesterday evening lasted almost 2 hours and was well-received by the audience, the media and political experts.



At the beginning of the speech, he even apologized to voters for politicians distancing themselves further and further from the average voter, somehting which is very rare. Politicians usually carry on with their ususal talk and never apologize for anything ...

Kern then talked for 2 hours about how to move the country forward, invoking JFK and the plan for the moon landings a couple times and that Austria should do the same with jobs, education, innovation and startups.

In my opinion, his speech was extremely professional and I guess it could move the SP support close to 30% again in the next weeks.

Here you can download the 150-page "Plan A":

https://cloud.headroom.at/download/planA

Or watch it online:

http://www.meinplana.at

Some pictures from the speech:

https://www.flickr.com/photos/sozialdemokratie/albums/72157677334106831

Here is the full speech (intro-video starts at around 13:00, followed by the speech):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yjKVbFEbJSU
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« Reply #85 on: January 12, 2017, 08:34:27 am »
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The day after Kern's major speech, it seems the VP is willing to take up some points (especially from the business area) and work out some solutions with the SP.

The VP also likes Kern's idea of introducing a FPTP-system as part of an election reform.

Meanwhile, the FP strongly attacked Kern and his ideas: They are heavily against FPTP, even though they are currently the strongest party in the polls.

The Greens and NEOS were also quite critical today, while the Team Stronach supports the introduction of FPTP.
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« Reply #86 on: January 12, 2017, 09:59:43 am »
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I presume that you mean FPTP in the sense that he wants to introduce a mixed system right? He isn't going full idiot and endorsing British style FailPastThePost ... right?
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« Reply #87 on: January 12, 2017, 01:03:44 pm »
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I presume that you mean FPTP in the sense that he wants to introduce a mixed system right? He isn't going full idiot and endorsing British style FailPastThePost ... right?

Yeah, a mixed system in which the strongest party gets a bonus but which respects smaller parties too.

This is also what the VP wants.

I guess SP and VP are speculating that with Kern (and later Kurz) as their leading candidates they will be able to fight for 1st place in 2018.

The FP on the other hand, while first in the polls right now, would certainly fall back to below 30% in such a scenario (Kern and Kurz would get many voters who currently support the FP).

I guess that's why the FP is currently opposed to a FPTP system. But of course also because it's convenient for them right now if they can continue attacking SP and VP for a likely "power grab".
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« Reply #88 on: January 12, 2017, 02:07:34 pm »
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Bonus seats? Hahaha, that will almost certainly backfire.
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« Reply #89 on: January 12, 2017, 05:18:06 pm »
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Bonus seats? Hahaha, that will almost certainly backfire.

it would maybe save the country on the long-run from eternal fp- or "groko"-governments.
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« Reply #90 on: January 13, 2017, 04:27:31 am »
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Bonus seats? Hahaha, that will almost certainly backfire.

it would maybe save the country on the long-run from eternal fp- or "groko"-governments.

Yes, it sounds sensible in an Austrian context.
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« Reply #91 on: January 14, 2017, 01:58:27 am »
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Today, the FP will hold their New Year's meeting in the Salzburg Arena.

Party leader Strache will give a 2-hour long speech in front of 3000 guests. He'll start with a look back at 2016 and the presidential race, then focus on jobs and the economy, followed by immigration and security issues.

Ahead of Strache, there will be speeches from Norbert Hofer and Salzburg's new FP-party leader Marlene Svazek (24) - the youngest, female party leader so far in Austria.
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« Reply #92 on: January 14, 2017, 04:05:58 am »
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New Profil magazine poll about a future federal FP government participation:

48% would approve of the FP being part of the next federal government
42% would disapprove
10% are undecided

September 2015: 45% approve
June 2015: 39% approve

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20170114_OTS0005/profil-umfrage-48-sind-fpoe-regierung-gegenueber-nicht-abgeneigt
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« Reply #93 on: January 14, 2017, 08:54:20 am »
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i support participation too.

the FP needs to share responsibility .....
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« Reply #94 on: January 14, 2017, 10:25:32 am »
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i support participation too.

the FP needs to share responsibility .....

I'm absolutely no fan of the FP, but to some extent you are right.

The state of Burgenland is a good example of how it might work: A strong SP with a powerful governor who sometimes takes some right-wing positions to keep the FP there weak. This resulted in the SP getting 45% and the FP less than 15%, allowing the SP to be the dominant party in the coalition and the FP turning into a meaningless secondary party that actually has to do some work rather than bitching around all day.

Also, if the FP never gets any government responsibility it would simply lead to many voters tuning out of the electoral process and losing their trust in democracy. Calling all elections fake and rigged and how the establishment parties do everything to cling to power.

Therefore, I'd support a scenario in which the Kern-SP and a Kurz-VP, as well as a Griss-led NEOS would run a tough election campaign, in which the FP gets decimated to around 20-25%.

Preferably, I would then like a coalition without the FP - such as SP/Greens/NEOS or VP/Greens/NEOS, but it's uncertain if they'd have a majority. I'd also support a coalition only if the FP is junior partner.
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« Reply #95 on: January 14, 2017, 02:25:28 pm »
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Today, the FP will hold their New Year's meeting in the Salzburg Arena.

Party leader Strache will give a 2-hour long speech in front of 3000 guests. He'll start with a look back at 2016 and the presidential race, then focus on jobs and the economy, followed by immigration and security issues.

Ahead of Strache, there will be speeches from Norbert Hofer and Salzburg's new FP-party leader Marlene Svazek (24) - the youngest, female party leader so far in Austria.

Austria's far-right Freedom Party calls for ban on 'fascistic Islam'



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The head of Austria's far-right Freedom Party (FP) on Saturday called for a law banning "fascistic Islam" and Muslim symbols, comparable to an existing law banning Nazi symbols, saying Islam could wipe out European society.

Austria needs "a law which prohibits fascistic Islam", Heinz Christian Strache told several thousand supporters at the party's new year meeting in Salzburg.

"Let us put an end to this policy of Islamization... otherwise we Austrians, we Europeans will come to an abrupt end," Strache said, in an apparent reference to the course pursued by the coalition government.

The junior coalition party VP called on Wednesday for halving the number of asylum applications accepted this year to around 17,000.

Strache responded by saying: "We need zero and minus immigration."



Any law against extreme elements of Islam should be similar to the law Austria introduced after WW2 banning the Nazi Party and Nazi symbols, a party spokesman said when asked for clarification.

The Freedom Party's anti-Muslim message has been well-received by a large minority of Austria's electorate. Its presidential candidate Norbert Hofer was defeated in a run-off vote last month but gained 47 percent support.

The nation of 8.7 million people has received more than 130,000 claims for asylum from people fleeing war and poverty in countries such as Afghanistan, Syria and Iraq since the summer of 2015.

About 600,000 Muslims, some of whom arrived during Europe's migration crisis, live in Austria.



The party, which has long called for a ban on face veils, also called for changing the way refugees are taken care of.

The state, not NGOs like the Catholic charity Caritas, should be in charge of their care to make sure money is spent efficiently, Hofer himself said at the same event on Saturday.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-austria-fpo-idUSKBN14Y0N1?il=0
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« Reply #96 on: January 14, 2017, 02:33:46 pm »
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Today, the FP will hold their New Year's meeting in the Salzburg Arena.

Party leader Strache will give a 2-hour long speech in front of 3000 guests. He'll start with a look back at 2016 and the presidential race, then focus on jobs and the economy, followed by immigration and security issues.

Ahead of Strache, there will be speeches from Norbert Hofer and Salzburg's new FP-party leader Marlene Svazek (24) - the youngest, female party leader so far in Austria.

Austria's far-right Freedom Party calls for ban on 'fascistic Islam'



Quote
The head of Austria's far-right Freedom Party (FP) on Saturday called for a law banning "fascistic Islam" and Muslim symbols, comparable to an existing law banning Nazi symbols, saying Islam could wipe out European society.

Austria needs "a law which prohibits fascistic Islam", Heinz Christian Strache told several thousand supporters at the party's new year meeting in Salzburg.

"Let us put an end to this policy of Islamization... otherwise we Austrians, we Europeans will come to an abrupt end," Strache said, in an apparent reference to the course pursued by the coalition government.

The junior coalition party VP called on Wednesday for halving the number of asylum applications accepted this year to around 17,000.

Strache responded by saying: "We need zero and minus immigration."



Any law against extreme elements of Islam should be similar to the law Austria introduced after WW2 banning the Nazi Party and Nazi symbols, a party spokesman said when asked for clarification.

The Freedom Party's anti-Muslim message has been well-received by a large minority of Austria's electorate. Its presidential candidate Norbert Hofer was defeated in a run-off vote last month but gained 47 percent support.

The nation of 8.7 million people has received more than 130,000 claims for asylum from people fleeing war and poverty in countries such as Afghanistan, Syria and Iraq since the summer of 2015.

About 600,000 Muslims, some of whom arrived during Europe's migration crisis, live in Austria.



The party, which has long called for a ban on face veils, also called for changing the way refugees are taken care of.

The state, not NGOs like the Catholic charity Caritas, should be in charge of their care to make sure money is spent efficiently, Hofer himself said at the same event on Saturday.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-austria-fpo-idUSKBN14Y0N1?il=0
Muh they have moderated themselves so much Smiley Smiley

Anyway, hopefully an OVP-FPO government
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rbk
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« Reply #97 on: January 14, 2017, 02:36:30 pm »
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Minus immigration? what does that mean? Forced exile?
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« Reply #98 on: January 14, 2017, 02:43:58 pm »
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Minus immigration? what does that mean? Forced exile?

"Minus immigration" is a word creation from Strache.

He said that the VP's proposal to cap this year's asylum request quota from the planned 35.000 to 17.500 is a hoax, because many asylum seekers will request to bring their whole family with them when they are here.

That's why the FP wants zero asylum seekers.

And not only that:

For "Minus immigration", deportations of illegals and criminals have to be significantly increased, according to Strache.
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« Reply #99 on: January 15, 2017, 01:37:22 am »
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   Minus immigration would probably be part of creating a "repatriation culture" that I believe Strache has talked about.  Perhaps part of any government with the FPO in it would include a ministry of repatriation which would hand out bonus, or create incentives for immigrants to return to their home country.
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