Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15

[Tender Branson]

New Salzburg poll by IMAS for the Salzburg-ÖVP:



http://www.salzburg.com/nachrichten/salzburg/politik/sn/artikel/wie-salzburg-heute-waehlen-wuerde-oevp-voran-gruene-auf-platz-4-234612

The current government is ÖVP-Greens-SBG and the next state election will be held in ca. 1 year.

[Tender Branson]

Sebastian Kurz (ÖVP) "understands" why Trump wants to build a wall to Mexico, but at the same time says that he prefers "softer" policies to secure borders and opposes his travel ban for several countries:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.thelocal.at/20170214/kurz-says-he-understands-why-trump-has-promised-to-build-a-wall

[Tender Branson]

Austria will sue Airbus for the corruption surrounding the Eurofighter purchase during the ÖVP-FPÖ (BZÖ) government between 2000-2006:

http://www.dw.com/en/austria-sues-airbus-over-alleged-eurofighter-corruption/a-37579081

Austria hopes to get around 1.1 Bio. € from Airbus, if they are found guilty.

Even FPÖ and ÖVP are in favour of suing Airbus, with both saying that "today's FPÖ and ÖVP are not the ones a decade ago ..."

[Tender Branson]

A new internal ÖVP poll shows the FPÖ falling back to around 30% (after being close to 35% after the presidential election):

31% FPÖ
29% SPÖ
20% ÖVP
13% Greens
  5% NEOS
  2% Others

http://www.eu-infothek.com/article/zu-ostern-koennte-es-der-oevp-high-noon-spielen

[Tender Branson]

With no further elections planned in Austria this year, I have to post some boring stuff I guess ...

After visiting the EU, VdB was in Switzerland today to meet their President:

[Tender Branson]

On another topic, I find it odd that no pollster so far has tested by how much the ÖVP's polling numbers would explode with Sebastian Kurz as their leader ...

That's why I mailed a few pollsters recently and asked them to include this scenario in one of their future polls.

Praise the Lord ! One pollster I mailed to has now acted and polled the Kurz-scenario (which he easily wins, as expected. It seems Kurz wins a lot from the FPÖ and also SPÖ, but I thought he'd gain a bit more from the FPÖ and less from the SPÖ):

Research Affairs for Ö24 (602 people polled, Feb. 14-16)

With Kurz:



Without Kurz:



Chancellor vote with Kurz:



Chancellor vote without Kurz:



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/OeVP-mit-Kurz-wuerde-Wahl-gewinnen/269402753

[Tender Branson]

Latest Profil magazine poll by Unique Research:

31% FPÖ
29% SPÖ
20% ÖVP
11% Greens
  6% NEOS
  3% Others

Most important issues in 2017:

36% Immigration/Integration/Refugees
13% Labour market/Unemployment/Economy
  6% Education/Schools/Universities

"Do you support or oppose banning spontaneous, large-scale demonstrations in inner-city pedestrian zones with shops nearby - with their business then impacted negatively by these demonstrations ?"

43% ban them
53% don't ban them

On another question, 63% of voters also favour female quotas in Parliament and 64% in state-owned and private companies.

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20170218_OTS0001/profil-umfrage-kanzlerfrage-kern-im-aufwind

[rob in cal]

  Tender, very nice to see you are now influencing Austrian polling. The numbers with Kurz are even stronger than I would have thought, with him getting more SPO support than I would have thought, and a little less from the FPO than I would have thought.

[Tender Branson]

  Tender, very nice to see you are now influencing Austrian polling. The numbers with Kurz are even stronger than I would have thought, with him getting more SPO support than I would have thought, and a little less from the FPO than I would have thought.

Yeah, it's pretty cool that the pollster took up my suggestion to poll a Kurz-scenario ...

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

That's a great picture of Kern they use in the bar chart, wow.

Kurz? Ah, not so much.

[Tender Branson]

That's a great picture of Kern they use in the bar chart, wow.

Kurz? Ah, not so much.

Yeah, Kurz has huge ears in this one. He's almost a Ferengi.

[Tender Branson]

Here are some crosstabs from the Kurz-poll, if he's the ÖVP-leader in the next federal election:



From top to bottom:

* men
* women
* under 30 years
* between 31-50
* over 51 years
* Vienna
* Lower Austria/Burgenland
* Styria/Carinthia
* Upper Austria/Salzburg
* Tyrol/Vorarlberg
* Without a higher school degree
* With a higher school degree

Kurz does really well with older voters, women and rural voters in Lower Austria and out West.

[Tender Branson]

Austrian government agrees on plan to boost jobs

Austria’s coalition government says it has reached agreement on a new plan to provide incentives for Austrian businesses that hire additional workers. The plan, which is being discussed at today’s minister’s meeting, is designed to tackle unemployment in Austria by making it easier for businesses to hire workers.

Employers who create new jobs will pay only half of the associated wage costs for the next three years - providing that the new employees have graduated from an Austrian school or university, are holders of a Red-White-Red residence and employment permit card, were previously employed in Austria within the last 12 months, or are receiving unemployment benefits. This means the scheme will not apply to migrants who are newly arrived in Austria.

Although the plan will primarily benefit Austrians, Chancellor Christian Kern says the plan is not discriminatory and should conform with EU regulations. He said 180,000 people from other EU countries are already pouring into Austria’s labour market every year.

The scheme is expected to cost the government €2 billion.

Although low compared to other countries in the EU, Austria's unemployment rate has been steadily increasing for several years.

http://www.thelocal.at/20170221/austrian-government-agrees-on-plan-to-boost-jobs

The FPÖ meanwhile applauds this "Austrian workers first" policy, while NEOS opposes it.

[Tender Branson]

If the SPÖ manages to communicate and promote this new policy effectively in the next few weeks, they could overtake the FPÖ in the polls - the first time in years.

And the first time the SPÖ would be above 30% again ...

[Tender Branson]

Interesting new report out today about Austrian school kids' language at home:

http://derstandard.at/2000052938033/Knapp-ein-Viertel-der-Schueler-mit-anderer-Umgangssprache-als-Deutsch

http://medienservicestelle.at/migration_bewegt/2017/02/21/mehrsprachigkeit-in-bildungseinrichtungen-nimmt-zu

The report shows that among Austrian school kids, 25% now speak a language other than German at home or in public. That's up from 15% in 2006.

In Vienna, the share is highest with 49.7% and lowest in Carinthia with 13.3%

Among the languages other than German, most kids speak:

61.000 Turkish
27.000 Serbian only
17.000 Albanian
16.000 Bosnian only
14.000 Romanian
14.000 Croatian only
11.000 Bosnian/Croatian/Serbian
11.000 Arabic

Arabic also had the biggest increase compared with the previous year (+2.400)

By school types, the percentage of kids with another language than German is generally higher among elementary schools and schools that provide a lower education. Among schools with higher degrees, 18-19% speak other languages.

And a future trend can also be seen:

Among Austrian kindergarten kids, already more than 31% speak another language than German (in Vienna: 59%).

[Tender Branson]

Austrians grade the first few weeks of the 2 new Presidents (Trump and VdB) ...

Market poll, conducted Feb. 16:



School grades:

Trump: 9% A+B, 14% C, 73% D+F, 4% Undecided
VdB: 47% A+B, 17% C, 20% D+F, 16% Undecided

...

Trump grades in detail:




60% of those who follow media coverage about Trump very closely give him an "F", compared with 53% of those not following it closely.

50% of men give him an "F", compared with 62% of women.

68% of old voters rate Trump a failure, compared with 54% of middle-aged voters and 38% of young voters.

[DavidB.]

With Kurz:

If this happens, will Kurz prefer a coalition with the FPÖ or a continuation of the grand coalition?

[Tender Branson]

With Kurz:

If this happens, will Kurz prefer a coalition with the FPÖ or a continuation of the grand coalition?

Don't know.

Kurz repeatedly says that Mitterlehner will lead the ÖVP into the next election, but uses every opprtunity himself to get good publicity such as appearing at the Munich Security council, at the Macedonian/Greek border (which he closed to the refugees) and at the UN yesterday.

[Tender Branson]

Austria's Minister for Health, Sabine Oberhauser (SPÖ), has died today aged 53.

She lost her battle with cancer today, after bravely dealing with it over the past years undergoing chemotherapy several times. At one point last year, it looked as if the cancer was gone but then it came back. When I watched Alexander Van der Bellen's inauguration, I was shocked at how she looked like but she remained undeterred by the illness. Even without hair, she continued to work in parliament and remained on the job until about a week ago ...

Austria lost a great fighter for social causes today.

Oberhauser, left, at the LGBT parade in Vienna:



http://wien.orf.at/news/stories/2825484



RIP.

[Tender Branson]

English obituary:



Austria's minister for health and women, Sabine Oberhauser, has died, a statement by the chancellor said on Thursday of the 53-year-old who had suffered from abdominal cancer.

Oberhauser became a minister in the Social Democrat-Christian Conservative coalition government of then-Chancellor Werner Faymann in 2014 and continued as health minister when Christian Kern took over the coalition in 2016.

With a background as a unionist, she was a defender of women's rights and in 2016 assumed the role of minister for women at a time when she already knew of her illness, which she spoke about openly while she continued ministerial duties.

On Feb. 15, Oberhauser, who was also a trained paediatrician, said her Social Democrat Party colleague Minister of Social Affairs Alois Stoeger would stand in for her while she recovered from peritonitis.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-austria-minister-idUSKBN1622FN?il=0

[Tender Branson]

Tonight is also the famous Vienna Opera Ball, which was opened by a really sad and teary-eyed Chancellor Kern (also SPÖ).

It was extremely sad to watch the teary government and VdB up there at this usually joyful gathering. All government members soon left after the minute of silence for Oberhauser.

[Tender Branson]

Social Minister Stöger is now the acting Health Minister after Sabine Oberhauser's death yesterday.

He was sworn in by President Van der Bellen today:



Some pictures of the Opera Ball yesterday ...

Chanellor Kern announcing that Sabine Oberhauser has died:



The minute of silence:



The ball:



About 200 Communists protested against the ball outside, opposing its decadence.

[Tender Branson]

It's more than likely that Pamela Rendi-Wagner (SPÖ) will become the new Health Minister, because she's a high-ranking Health Ministry official and was also a close friend of Sabine Oberhauser:

[reciprocity]

English obituary:



Austria's minister for health and women, Sabine Oberhauser, has died, a statement by the chancellor said on Thursday of the 53-year-old who had suffered from abdominal cancer.

Oberhauser became a minister in the Social Democrat-Christian Conservative coalition government of then-Chancellor Werner Faymann in 2014 and continued as health minister when Christian Kern took over the coalition in 2016.

With a background as a unionist, she was a defender of women's rights and in 2016 assumed the role of minister for women at a time when she already knew of her illness, which she spoke about openly while she continued ministerial duties.

On Feb. 15, Oberhauser, who was also a trained paediatrician, said her Social Democrat Party colleague Minister of Social Affairs Alois Stoeger would stand in for her while she recovered from peritonitis.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-austria-minister-idUSKBN1622FN?il=0

How sad. Did she die from the Abdominal cancer or Peritonitis?  I only ask because a someone notable socialite in the UK died from Peritonitis maybe a month ago.

[Tender Branson]

I don't know and it's not really important.