Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15
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  Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15
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Poll
Question: How would you vote in the Oct. 15 election ?
#1
SPÖ
#2
ÖVP
#3
FPÖ
#4
Greens
#5
NEOS
#6
PILZ
#7
KPÖ+
#8
FLÖ
#9
G!LT
#10
Whites
#11
For a small regional party
#12
I'd vote invalid
#13
I'd stay home
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Partisan results


Author Topic: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15  (Read 192167 times)
rob in cal
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« Reply #450 on: April 19, 2017, 03:33:06 PM »

    Tender, interesting to see that on the issue of more refugees/migrants the SPO and FPO voters were the most against, with OVP voters a little bit closer to the Greens than the SPO. I'd love to see a further breakdown among SPO and OVP voters by social class, education level etc and their stance on the issue.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #451 on: April 20, 2017, 02:49:56 AM »

The SPÖ and Chancellor Christian Kern want to win back more working-class voters from the FPÖ, so Kern recently partnered with a Vienna pizzeria to deliver their pizzas to working class customers.

Kern arrives undercover with a secret camera, the people are surprised that it's the Chancellor and invite him in to talk about what matters to them.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lnRk3PxxCI4

https://spoe.at/page/was-bewegt-dich-deine-meinung-ist-uns-wichtig

More evidence that an early election could be happening in the fall.





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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #452 on: April 20, 2017, 03:22:33 AM »

An early look at the March 2018 Lower Austria state election, the most important next year:

Nothing will be like it used to be back in 2013, because the ÖVP just got a new leader and the state a new Governor with Johanna Mikl Leitner. She will struggle to hold the 51% that Erwin Pröll got in 2013 and will likely fall back to around 40%.



The SPÖ, who got decimated to just 21% back in 2013 (their lowest result ever), is expected to recover from that historic disaster. They will unveil their frontrunner soon, but it's expected to be former popular police-chief (now a Magna manager) Franz Schnabl, who would be an option for center-right ÖVP, FPÖ- or Team Stronach voters.

Schnabl was once ousted as Vienna police chief by Interior Minister Strasser (ÖVP) during the early stages of ÖVP-FPÖ back in the year 2000, which led to massive protests against that government. Schnabl's 17-year old daughter attended the protests against Black-Blue and it was speculated that Strasser sacked him because of that ...



The (historically weak) FPÖ is also expected to recover from their 8% they got in 2013 and they picked Walter Rosenkranz as their frontrunner. He's the Lower Austria FPÖ-leader and also an MP in the Austrian Parliament. He's not related with the disgraced 2010 Presidential candidate for the FPÖ, Barbara Rosenkranz, a holocaust denier.



The Greens, who also got 8% in the last state election, also have a new frontrunner with Helga Krismer. It is rather likely that the Greens will fall back in 2018, because of the recent troubles and because of the state being difficult for them in state elections.



The NEOS (who didn't run back in 2013) are running this time and their frontrunner is Indra Collini. They could do well in the wealthier commuter belt/suburbs around Vienna and other bigger cities, but will do miserably in the countryside. NEOS will probably get around 3-5%.



The Team Stronach (10% back in 2013) is politically bankrupt and their votes will be absorbed by other parties (mostly ÖVP, SPÖ and FPÖ).
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #453 on: April 20, 2017, 03:38:32 AM »

There have been no polls yet, but my early prediction for the 2018 Lower Austria state election would be something like:

43% ÖVP (-8%)
27% SPÖ (+5%)
17% FPÖ (+9%)
  7% Greens (-1%)
  4% NEOS (+4%)
  1% KPÖ (n.c.)
  1% Others (-9%)
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #454 on: April 20, 2017, 06:16:09 AM »

that would be a really good result for both fpö and spö and - to a lesser  amount - Neos.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #455 on: April 20, 2017, 08:05:06 AM »

After the investigation into the eurofighter mess, another old-school scandal...

11 years after he left government, the prosecution is finally going to go after (in)famous potential-criminal-mastermind and perfect son-in-law, former minister for financial affairs karl-heinz grasser. a glorious day!
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #456 on: April 20, 2017, 08:20:52 AM »

After the investigation into the eurofighter mess, another old-school scandal...

11 years after he left government, the prosecution is finally going to go after (in)famous potential-criminal-mastermind and perfect son-in-law, former minister for financial affairs karl-heinz grasser. a glorious day!

Maybe he'll wind himself out if it again like a smart snake, like he did in the previous trials launched against him. We'll see ...

PS: Grasser sometimes visits the shop where my brother works in Tyrol and according to him Grasser is a likeable guy, contrary to his bossy wife (Fiona Swarovski, of the crystal jewel company).
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #457 on: April 20, 2017, 08:26:15 AM »

that would be a really good result for both fpö and spö and - to a lesser  amount - Neos.

Well, with Pröll out and JML in there's at least 5-10% from the ÖVP to gain for the other parties, as well as ca. 10% from the defunct Team Stronach and about 1% from the Greens.

So, basically up to 20% are up for grabs for SPÖ, FPÖ and NEOS. I guess the FPÖ will get the most from this cake considering where the former votes are coming from, followed by SPÖ and then NEOS.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #458 on: April 20, 2017, 08:39:21 AM »

Turns out that the "Pizza Chancellor" campaign that I posted above might have been staged, because at least 1 guy that Kern delivered pizza to is an active SPÖ-member and employed at the (SPÖ-led) Social Ministry:

http://www.nachrichten.at/nachrichten/politik/innenpolitik/VP-Haeme-fuer-Kerns-Pizza-Boten-Einsatz;art385,2545298

The PR-plot might actually turn negative now for Kern, as he gets ridiculed for faking it by the other parties.

The SPÖ denies that the pizza-film was staged and meanwhile more than 500.000 people have watched the clip.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #459 on: April 20, 2017, 10:38:08 AM »

   As a professional pizza (among other food) delivery driver I was intrigued to see the Chancellor in action.  I'd like to have seen more details on the video.  Were most of the orders in that one apartment complex?  Looks like he helped make the pizzas as well.  Also, he mentions that he did well with tips, wonder how big they were.  Also, looks like the restaurant didn't cut the pizzas, but rather leaves that up to the customer.  We cut ours, 6 slices for a small, 8 for a medium, 10 for a large, 12 for an extra large.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #460 on: April 20, 2017, 11:08:18 AM »

A new IMAS poll for the Krone, which cries "outlier":



Greens at 13-15% ? WTF ?

And the ÖVP's too high too. SPÖ and FPÖ are too low.

It seems they undersampled working-class voters.

http://www.krone.at/oesterreich/fpoe-oevp-und-spoe-harter-dreikampf-um-platz-eins-kopf-an-kopf-rennen-story-565571
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #461 on: April 21, 2017, 01:02:44 AM »

A new Salzburg state election poll was released today, conducted by Public Opinion Strategies for NEOS. Although it was released today, it was already conducted in January among a relatively big sample:



My home state of Salzburg will have the next state election in ca. 1 year.

The current government is ÖVP-Greens-SBG (Mayr)

In the newspaper article, the NEOS-guy said he wants to enter a coalition with anyone except the 2 FPÖs in the state.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #462 on: April 21, 2017, 08:53:21 AM »

Interesting stuff:

Apparently, some guy has sent a list of Austro-Turks who were eligible to vote in the Turkish referendum to the public broadcaster ORF.

The ORF looked into it and verified it as "a plausible list" of Austro-Turkish voters.

The ORF may also hand the list over to authorities because the potential of crimes being committed. It's generally not legal to have a dual citizenship in Austria and if authorities are looking into it, they could revoke the Austrian citizenship of many Turks living here.

Conservative estimates are that ca. 15.000 Austro-Turks have an illegal citizenship, while the FPÖ estimates that there are up to 60.000 of them.

Based on the number of eligible voters (109.000) for the referendum and Statistics Austria data on Turkish foreigners older than 18, I'd say it's about 20.000 illegal citizenships.

http://derstandard.at/2000056318833/Tuerkei-Referendum-Teile-des-oesterreichischen-Waehlerverzeichnisses-aufgetaucht
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #463 on: April 21, 2017, 10:19:05 AM »

Austrian police arrest 26 sovereign citizen movement members

VIENNA - Austrian law enforcement officials say 26 members of a sovereign citizens movement have been detained on suspicion that some among then planned to take people hostage and put them on self-styled "trial."

Police arrested the suspects Thursday in a nationwide raid of homes of members of the "State Union of Austria," who refuse to recognize the legality or authority of the Austrian Republic.

A total of 454 police officers participated in the large scale operations, the Austrian Interior Ministry said in a statement.



The "Staatenbund Österreich" is a similar group to Germany's "Reichsbürger," whose members do not acknowledge the state.

The group is currently estimated to have a thousand members, and its growing violence and threat to security were the reason for Austria's latest nationwide raids.

Austrian investigators have long been tracking the suspected "Staatenbund" members, and said that the suspects even planned illegal trials against current mayors, bank employees and judges.

For the past few years, Austria's neighboring country Germany has been trying to take action against the "Reichsbürger" extremist group, whose members believe that the former German Reich still exists with its 1930s borders and continue to follow the laws of that time.

State Prosecutor spokesman Christian Kroschl says the arrests followed threats against local politicians, judges and bank employees.

The suspects are accused of participation in a subversive organization, resisting the authority of the state, coercion, blackmail and uttering threats.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/article145673329.html
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #464 on: April 22, 2017, 04:12:52 AM »

A 1-3 month old (!!!) Spectra poll has been released today for the next federal elections ...

This is the 3rd poll in a row in the past few days that was conducted long ago (IMAS and the poll for NEOS being the others).

I don't get why pollsters release months old polls ...

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #465 on: April 22, 2017, 12:57:19 PM »

A FPÖ-politician from the district of Imst (former poster "Cranberry's" district) posted a Facebook birthday card recently, congratulating his "friend" Adolf Hitler on his 128th birthday:



The FPÖ kicked him out of the party today ...

https://derstandard.at/2000056360733/Happy-Birthday-Adolf-FPOe-Tirol-schliesst-Funktionaer-aus
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #466 on: April 23, 2017, 08:07:45 AM »

Chancellor Kern in Israel today, meeting with PM Netanyahu, President Rivlin, the opposition leader Herzog, the Palestinian PM and Holocaust survivors:



http://derstandard.at/2000056374806/Bundeskanzler-Kern-beginnt-Besuch-in-Israel-und-Palaestina
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Klartext89
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« Reply #467 on: April 23, 2017, 04:50:07 PM »

Surprisingly, you missed to tell us that the old senile Gertrud from the horrible ad hominem van der Bellen campaign was a campaign plot and nothing close to reality or self-motivated... ;-)

But of course, it's faaaaaaaaaar more important that a local FPÖ ex-member congratulated Adolf Hitler on Facebook :-D

Honestly, stop being a political heck or stop pretending to be impartial in this thread!
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #468 on: April 23, 2017, 10:13:47 PM »

Surprisingly, you missed to tell us that the old senile Gertrud from the horrible ad hominem van der Bellen campaign was a campaign plot and nothing close to reality or self-motivated... ;-)

this is not based on any available facts.

as far as we know, her life story was double-checked and she also volunteered herself. the presentation was done by an important advertising agency which now also got a price for it.

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #469 on: April 24, 2017, 03:37:06 AM »

Surprisingly, you missed to tell us that the old senile Gertrud from the horrible ad hominem van der Bellen campaign was a campaign plot and nothing close to reality or self-motivated... ;-)

But of course, it's faaaaaaaaaar more important that a local FPÖ ex-member congratulated Adolf Hitler on Facebook :-D

Honestly, stop being a political heck or stop pretending to be impartial in this thread!

Dude, stop grieving about the fact that your Führer Hofer lost.

You ran a good campaign, especially considering the recent flops of Wilders and Le Pen yesterday, but after 1 year it should definitely be time now to accept your loss.

And stop attacking Holocaust survivors !
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #470 on: April 24, 2017, 03:48:02 AM »

The "Pizza delivery" thing is turning into a huge media disaster for Chancellor Kern and he's being ridiculed in editorials and by other politicians, ranging from the ÖVP to the FPÖ to Greens and NEOS.

On the other hand, the video was seen by 1 million people in the past few days.

Strache (FPÖ) posted this:



"Chancellor Kern delivers pizza. I deliver solutions !"
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #471 on: April 24, 2017, 05:54:33 AM »

Chancellor Kern continues his Israel-Palestine trip today ...

Austria stands shoulder to shoulder with its Jewish citizens, says visiting Chancellor Kern

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http://www.jpost.com/Diaspora/Austria-stands-shoulder-to-shoulder-with-its-Jewish-citizens-says-visiting-Chancellor-Kern-488788
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Klartext89
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« Reply #472 on: April 24, 2017, 06:37:27 AM »

this is not based on any available facts.

as far as we know, her life story was double-checked and she also volunteered herself. the presentation was done by an important advertising agency which now also got a price for it.



Of course it is and you know it ;-)


I really hurt your feelings, yesterday :-D

Dude, stop grieving about the fact that your Führer Hofer lost.

You ran a good campaign, especially considering the recent flops of Wilders and Le Pen yesterday, but after 1 year it should definitely be time now to accept your loss.

And stop attacking Holocaust survivors !

Won't work ;-) Seems that I have to check the thread more often to correct your #alternativefacts.

PS: Stop whining ;-)
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CrabCake
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« Reply #473 on: April 24, 2017, 06:54:55 AM »

Poor tender can't catch a break, can he? Sad

Also i thought the pizza thing was pretty cute, sad that it backfired.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #474 on: April 26, 2017, 03:52:37 AM »

President Van der Bellen (Greens) made a controversial gaffe recently at a discussion with young people.



The following quote about headscarves was shown yesterday at a ORF news report:

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http://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5207179/Wir-werden-alle-Frauen-bitten-muessen-ein-Kopftuch-zu-tragen-aus

He probably meant it well, but this certainly won't improve his image with FPÖ-voters or right-wing ÖVP voters and to reconcile a still polarized country ...
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