Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15

[Tender Branson]

Overnight, newspapers have reported that the name "ÖVP" won't even appear on the next federal election ballot anymore.

Instead, it will probably have "List Sebastian Kurz" (LSK) on it. Very Macron-ish. This has both significant benefits, but also carries some risk: Benefits, because Kurz can disassociate himself from the unpopular party, bring in independents and experts to his list and run based on his sky-high favourable ratings. Risks, because he could fail during the campaign or the debates and this could drag the whole list down.

I think Kurz's strategy to run without the ÖVP-name is more beneficial than risky: For example if we look at Erwin Pröll and Lower Austria, who appeared on campaign posters without the ÖVP-logo and then won absolute majorities based on his personal popularity.

Also, it seems Wolfgang Brandstetter (the current Minister for Justice, ÖVP) will become the new Vice-Chancellor for the remaining term (another move from Kurz to avoid daily coalition trouble).

[Tender Branson]

Even Chancellor Kern (SPÖ) now says there will be early elections in the fall, according to an ORF interview he gave about an hour ago:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-austria-politics-idUSKCN18A0FA

In the interview he said that he'll get along with Kurz personally over the next months, but he also attacked Kurz's planned independent list, saying "I'm not ashamed of my own party."

Both Kern and Kurz, as well as the opposition parties, will still pass some laws in the next months that were already worked on - such as eliminating the tax bracket creep, incentives for companies to hire more workers by slashing employer labour costs by half or a program to hire more older workers. This was already done after the 2008 and 2013 elections were called.

[Tender Branson]

Kurz has outlined 7 wide-ranging demands to the federal ÖVP-committee tomorrow, as a pre-condition for him taking over as party leader (...)

The ÖVP federal committee meeting starts right now.

In the meantime, all branches of the ÖVP have agreed to back all the demands by Kurz (see quote above).

The committee meeting will likely show unanimous support for Kurz and his proposed list.

According to the "Presse", the list is called: "List Sebastian Kurz - The New People's Party."

This name will appear on the election ballot, not "ÖVP".

http://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5217646/Name-der-KurzListe-durchgesickert

[Simfan34]

For once, I do want to talk about Austria, as it moves inexorably towards having a 30-year-old Chancellor. The potential for a very personalistic campaign and a centralized party is definitely interesting. You have my attention...

[Tender Branson]

For once, I do want to talk about Austria, as it moves inexorably towards having a 30-year-old Chancellor. A recap would be appreciated...

Nice.

As I'm posting a lot about it already, maybe Apathetic Austrian could do one for you.

I'm going to follow the NRW state election and the Kurz leadership meeting for the evening.

[KingSweden]

A 30 year old Chancellor with only a few years of Cabinet under his belt is nuts, but Austria lacks superior options I suppose :/

[ApatheticAustrian]

imho kern is superior but our party diversity is quite....restrained.

[Tender Branson]

A 30 year old Chancellor with only a few years of Cabinet under his belt is nuts, but Austria lacks superior options I suppose :/

How wrong you are ...

Age doesn't say much about the ability of a politician to govern. There are also 70-year olds who can be incompetent politicians: look at Trump or Corbyn. Kurz has always been (wrongly) underestimated by everyone. Kurz was 25 when he became Foreign Minister and has even earned praise by Merkel, Kerry and Lawrow for his handling of the office.

[Tender Branson]

The federal ÖVP committee has accepted Kurz as new party leader and all of his 7 demands - unanimously.

Kurz, Kern and Van der Bellen will meet in the coming days to talk about what's next (either a Kern-led minority government, a snap election request in parliament this week already or a snap election request in late June).

[Tender Branson]

I did a quick poll about turnout in the snap election on the left-liberal "Standard"-forum and so far 65 people have voted, 61 said they'll vote and 4 said no.

That's a 95% turnout.

Obviously, actual turnout won't be as high in the fall but it would be great if we could beat the Dutch (82%).

I could see this election having some real high turnout, similar to the 2002 wave election, which had almost 85% turnout.

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ has meanwhile consulted the other opposition parties today about a common meeting to discuss the date of the early elections.

September 24 would be nice (together with Germany), because you could argue that if Austria votes on Oct. 1 or Oct. 8, our election would be influenced by the outcome of the German one.

So, better hold it on the same day.

[TheSaint250]

The FPÖ has meanwhile consulted the other opposition parties today about a common meeting to discuss the date of the early elections.

September 24 would be nice (together with Germany), because you could argue that if Austria votes on Oct. 1 or Oct. 8, our election would be influenced by the outcome of the German one.

So, better hold it on the same day.

Or maybe before.  I would feel as though they would be largely independent from each other, but having them on the same day seems like too much, and if one should come before the other, the Austrian election most likely wouldn't majorly influence the German election.

[Maxwell]

Speaking as an outsider with no knowledge of the situation - what is so great about Sebastian Kurz other than he's a super young guy and super ambitious? Would I be wrong in speculating he could be another flop attempt to revive a weakening party ala Martin Schulz.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Speaking as an outsider with no knowledge of the situation - what is so great about Sebastian Kurz other than he's a super young guy and super ambitious? Would I be wrong in speculating he could be another flop attempt to revive a weakening party ala Martin Schulz.

not a good comparison.....kurz is better at hollow rhetoric, is better looking and has been under the public eye, inside the government, for years, meaning his approval rating is more REAL and could only be checked against governing reality as a leader.

[Simfan34]

Kurz has officially been elected as leader of the OeVP.

[Maxwell]

Speaking as an outsider with no knowledge of the situation - what is so great about Sebastian Kurz other than he's a super young guy and super ambitious? Would I be wrong in speculating he could be another flop attempt to revive a weakening party ala Martin Schulz.

not a good comparison.....kurz is better at hollow rhetoric, is better looking and has been under the public eye, inside the government, for years, meaning his approval rating is more REAL and could only be checked against governing reality as a leader.

That's a remarkable amount of experience to gain in considering the guy is 30 years old.

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ has meanwhile consulted the other opposition parties today about a common meeting to discuss the date of the early elections.

September 24 would be nice (together with Germany), because you could argue that if Austria votes on Oct. 1 or Oct. 8, our election would be influenced by the outcome of the German one.

So, better hold it on the same day.

Or maybe before.  I would feel as though they would be largely independent from each other, but having them on the same day seems like too much, and if one should come before the other, the Austrian election most likely wouldn't majorly influence the German election.

True, the Austrian election would hardly impact the German one if held before September 24 - but the other way around there could definitely be some influence if it is held on October 1.

I really don't see what's the problem with holding it on the same day as Germany.

Anyway, Kern said yesterday that he wants the vote to be held "no earlier" than October 8 - while Kurz wants it as early as September 17 (right after school holidays end). Nobody wants to vote before that, because people are still on vacation.

I actually agree more with Kurz's plan here (even if I will vote for Kern/SPÖ): Sept. 24 or Oct. 1 looks perfect, because coalition talks will take a while and a new budget needs to be passed in the fall by the new government. So, if Kern wants to vote as late as November (!) there'd be problems to get a proper budget passed in time. The new coalition also has to prepare for next years EU-presidency of Austria.

Will be interesting to see who wins this next battle, the "election date battle", and which side the opposition will back.

[Tender Branson]

FPÖ, Greens, NEOS and TS all had press conferences today - with all saying they prefer to work until June and then support the snap election vote at the end of the month.

The FPÖ also revealed their first poster campaign, attacked both Kern and Kurz heavily and said they prefer Oct. 1 or Oct. 8 as election dates:



On top: "FPÖ - the social homeland party."

In the middle: "Austria can always count on him ... while others only seem to get smart just before an election."

At the bottom: "FPÖ - Otherwise nothing will ever change."

[windjammer]

The FPÖ has meanwhile consulted the other opposition parties today about a common meeting to discuss the date of the early elections.

September 24 would be nice (together with Germany), because you could argue that if Austria votes on Oct. 1 or Oct. 8, our election would be influenced by the outcome of the German one.

So, better hold it on the same day.

Or maybe before.  I would feel as though they would be largely independent from each other, but having them on the same day seems like too much, and if one should come before the other, the Austrian election most likely wouldn't majorly influence the German election.

True, the Austrian election would hardly impact the German one if held before September 24 - but the other way around there could definitely be some influence if it is held on October 1.

I really don't see what's the problem with holding it on the same day as Germany.

Anyway, Kern said yesterday that he wants the vote to be held "no earlier" than October 8 - while Kurz wants it as early as September 17 (right after school holidays end). Nobody wants to vote before that, because people are still on vacation.

I actually agree more with Kurz's plan here (even if I will vote for Kern/SPÖ): Sept. 24 or Oct. 1 looks perfect, because coalition talks will take a while and a new budget needs to be passed in the fall by the new government. So, if Kern wants to vote as late as November (!) there'd be problems to get a proper budget passed in time. The new coalition also has to prepare for next years EU-presidency of Austria.

Will be interesting to see who wins this next battle, the "election date battle", and which side the opposition will back.

You are going to vote for Spo???

[Tender Branson]

You are going to vote for SPÖ

Oui.

[Tender Branson]

All 4 opposition party leaders met during the afternoon and agreed to introduce a joint snap election motion in parliament on Wednesday, setting early elections for either Oct. 8 or Oct. 15 (according to NEOS-leader Matthias Strolz, Oct. 8 is the most likely date).

If SPÖ or ÖVP (or both) would back the opposition proposal, parliament could then still pass important laws up until the election and even continue with the Eurofighter investigation committee until mid-July (which is something all parties want).



Well, voting together with Germany on Sept. 24 would have been fun, but I guess Oct. 8 will do it as well.

[Tender Branson]

Kurz tweets he's OK with the Oct. 8 or 15 election.

Schieder (SPÖ) says the same.

Looks like a done deal.

[windjammer]

Btw I don't expect Kurz to end up at 35% . He's  the favorite but he will most likely end up around 30%.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Btw I don't expect Kurz to end up at 35% . He's  the favorite but he will most likely end up around 30%.

he is going to become a junior partner in a FPÖ coalition....otherwise i don't know why the FPÖ should play junior partner.

[Tender Branson]

Btw I don't expect Kurz to end up at 35% . He's  the favorite but he will most likely end up around 30%.

he is going to become a junior partner in a FPÖ coalition....otherwise i don't know why the FPÖ should play junior partner.

Remains to be seen if and which positions Kurz will take on the issues during the campaign and debates. He should certainly not be underestimated, because there are a lot of centrist/center-right people out there who think the FPÖ is too extreme (or who look to Trump in disgust) and opt for Kurz. Kurz, if he remains highly popular over the coming months, also has the potential to attract a significant amount of previous non-voters. Kern definitely needs to step up the game over the next months so that he can win this thing. Maybe if it's really close, he needs to rely on former Green-voters and their tactical voting in the end ...

More background:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-austria-politics-kurz-newsmaker-idUSKCN18B214