Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

People really think Kern is less attractive than Kurz. Poor taste, Österreich.

Anyway, am I the only one kind of surprised how well the ovp does with students? I always thought they were the party of decaying old rural types.

[Tender Branson]

People really think Kern is less attractive than Kurz. Poor taste, Österreich.

Anyway, am I the only one kind of surprised how well the ovp does with students? I always thought they were the party of decaying old rural types.

A lot has to do with the personal background of the students, many of them coming from ÖVP-households and being engaged in ÖVP activities in their childhood and youth, such as the Landjugend (country youth) or other ÖVP-affiliated clubs (Trachtenmusikkapelle etc.).

You also have to consider that only 1/4 of students voted. The results could look different with 3/4 students voting. Besides, 26% is not a lot really considering the ÖVP now polls above 30%. And especially when compared with the FPÖ (polls at 26%, gets 3% among students). And many ÖVP-leaning students even voted for the JUNOS.

[Tender Branson]

The race for new Green Party leader could be more open than it appeared yesterday ...

Ingrid Felipe is not a sure bet, because she also wants to run in the 2018 Tyrol state election - which would be problematic (or impossible) if she becomes Austrian GP leader.

There's talk that there could be a frontrunner simply for the election in October, but a different party leader.

Felipe for example could become frontrunner, while Albert Steinhauser (the young, charismatic justice, online and data-privacy speaker of the Greens) could become party leader.

Other names include Werner Kogler, Astrid Rössler (Salzburg Green-leader), Ulrike Lunacek (the lesbian Green-leader in the European Parliament) or Peter Pilz (from the populist left-wing of the party).

We should know more after the party meeting today.

I'd prefer another woman as leader, but Steinhauser would be a good choice as well.

[Tender Branson]

Here's a Reuters article about the polls I posted today:

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http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-austria-politics-idUKKCN18F0VN?il=0

[Tender Branson]

Breaking:

Ingrid Felipe (currently Tyrolian Green-leader) will become party leader, while Ulrike Lunacek (MEP) will become frontrunner for the election.

 

Felipe & Lunacek

[Tender Branson]

NEOS-leader Matthias Strolz just talked (!) to me after I sent him an idea for a NEOS-campaign in late September, early October ...

He liked the idea, but I guess they are getting tons of ideas so we'll see if they take it up or not ...

[Tender Branson]

Right now, it's as if the SPÖVP coalition didn't blew up in the last 2 weeks ...

Chancellor Kern invites the leaders and ministers of the other 5 parties to a meeting on Tuesday, to keep working on the remaining agenda for this parliamentary year.

Amazing. First they f**k each other, then they play nice.

[Tender Branson]

New poll:

"Unique Research" for the weekly political "Profil" magazine (May 15-19, n=500):

33% ÖVP/Sebastian Kurz List
27% SPÖ
26% FPÖ
  8% Greens
  5% NEOS
  1% Others (TS, KPÖ, CPÖ, etc.)

Chancellor vote:

32% Kurz (ÖVP)
31% Kern (SPÖ, incumbent)
16% Strache (FPÖ)
  5% Glawischnig (Greens)
  1% Strolz (NEOS)
15% Other candidate/none of them

(Glawischnig was still asked as Green-leader, she stepped down during the poll)

What do you think about the new elections on October 15 ?

27% I'm looking forward to it
48% somewhere in between
26% I'm annoyed about it

Which coalition would you prefer after the election ?

31% ÖVP/FPÖ
20% ÖVP/SPÖ
20% SPÖ/Greens/NEOS
13% SPÖ/FPÖ
11% ÖVP/Greens/NEOS

What do you think about the 7 wide-ranging Kurz-demands to the ÖVP-committee as a condition for him to take over the party leadership ?

67% this will make the ÖVP capable of acting again
18% this will abolish intra-party democracy

What are the most important issues in this election ?

31% Immigration/Refugees/Integration
13% Labour Market/Jobs/Unemployment
11% Education
  8% Budget/Taxes/Wages
  5% Social Issues/Healthcare
  4% Economy

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-liste-kurz-vp-spoe-8154322

[parochial boy]

There absolutely no way Kurz keeps those numbers though, is there?

I mean, every time event X cause politician Y to surge in the polls, they wind up falling back at least a few points over the following months (not just Schulz, but Clegg, even Macron lost 2-3 points in the last month of the campaign).

I reckon ÖVP get 29-30% maximum

[Tender Branson]

There absolutely no way Kurz keeps those numbers though, is there?

I mean, every time event X cause politician Y to surge in the polls, they wind up falling back at least a few points over the following months (not just Schulz, but Clegg, even Macron lost 2-3 points in the last month of the campaign).

I reckon ÖVP get 29-30% maximum

It really depends if his popularity remains strong and if he can find the right mix on the issues and debates.

But he's definitely very popular in the rural parts around here and a lot of former FPÖ-voters will vote for him. Also some centrist, rural Greens - while some urban ex-Greens could vote for Kern.

I could also see an uptick in turnout towards 80% and additional non-voters could vote for Kurz too in big numbers.

[ApatheticAustrian]

it's unlikely but since kurz was a minister for years, he is a known quantity and he won't "govern" till the election so he could only lose support cause spö/fpö voters realize, they actually don't like the ÖVP or campaign issues and tv debates are going bad for kurz.....

the fpö has started attacking him as the most important target and if i read the polls correctly kurz has started slipping against kern anyway. (spö has also improved, which means this is mostly about conservative-friendly voters who have switched to the FPÖ...lots of styrian voters i guess)

[Tender Branson]

Yesterday, Sebastian Kurz had his first campaign event since becoming ÖVP-leader in Feldbach in southern Styria, an area close to the border to Slovenia where 1 million people from the Middle-East entered into Austria within half a year (between July 2015 and early 2016).

Historically, the ÖVP did very well there (being largely a rural, agricultural area) but Norbert Hofer got 65-80% in this region.

[Tender Branson]

Chancellor Christian Kern also campaigned yesterday ... in Salzburg City (and his audience seems to be much older than Kurz's):

[Tender Branson]

New OGM poll for the "Kurier" newspaper (May 16-18, n=788, MoE = +/- 3.5%):






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https://kurier.at/politik/inland/zulasten-der-fpoe-kurz-zieht-oevp-auf-ersten-platz/265.095.487

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Chancellor vote:

34-30-23 Kurz/Kern/Strache

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Job approval ratings:

83-14 approve - Kurz (30% strongly approve)
70-27 approve - Kern (10% strongly approve)

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64% are OK with the new elections, 30% want the government to continue.

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26% blame the ÖVP for the new elections, 10% the SPÖ, 56% both.

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58% say it's OK that Kurz doesn't want to become Vice-Chancellor, 30% say it's wrong.

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Wolfgang Brandstetter has become the new VC, 51% say this is OK, 18% say it's wrong.

[Tender Branson]

Here's more from the Kurier/OGM poll:

The most important issue blocks to voters are "security and immigration" (36%), "social issues, wages, pensions" (29%), "economy and jobs" (20%) and "education and schools" (9%).

The interesting part here is that voters say the FPÖ and ÖVP have the best competence, ideas and solutions for the "immigration/security" area, but the SPÖ leads among the other 3 blocks.

This means there's a significant potential left for Kern in the coming months, if he's able to shift the focus away from "immigration/security" and more towards social/pension/labour and education issues.

[Tender Branson]

I just noticed that turnout in snap elections was always higher so far than in the regular election before. And not only that: For the past 27 years, a regular term was always followed by a term with a snap election ...

1990: 83.6%

(regular 4-year term)

1994: 80.2%

(snap election term)

1995: 86.0%

(regular 4-year term)

1999: 80.4%

(snap election term)

2002: 84.3%

(regular 4-year term)

2006: 78.5%

(snap election term)

2008: 78.8%

(regular 5-year term)

2013: 74.9%

(snap election term)

2017: ? (probably 75-80%)

[Tender Branson]

Since Kern's 160-page "Plan A for Austria" is virtually the SPÖ's campaign manifesto, the focus now shifts to the other major parties. The SPÖ is still working on a "criteria catalogue" for a possible future coalition with the FPÖ. This one will probably be out during the summer.

During the weekend, I've read that the List Sebastian Kurz (also known as "ÖVP") will present their election platform in late August, as well as their team for the election (Kurz promised to overhaul the total current ÖVP-leadership team, as well as the party list by bringing in a lot of "young, dynamic, and 50% female fresh faces". He already started today with installing a new ÖVP general secretary (a close associate of Kurz in the JVP).

This means Kurz can now go submarine again for the next 3 months, do his job as foreign minister and stay largely out of domestic politics.

The FPÖ will release their economic election manifesto in late June.

[Tender Branson]

Sebastian Kurz installed Elisabeth Köstinger as the new ÖVP general secretary today.

Köstinger, currently a member of the European Parliament, is one of the closest associates of Kurz and also leader of the powerful Austrian farmers association.

[peterthlee]

I passed by Strache's facebook fan page and he ramped up attacks on Kurz. He is in grave despair as his party's number fell back to third place. This could spell the end of the possibility of a black-blue coalition.

[Tender Branson]

I passed by Strache's facebook fan page and he ramped up attacks on Kurz. He is in grave despair as his party's number fell back to third place. This could spell the end of the possibility of a black-blue coalition.

I wouldn't say "grave despair", 26% is still a very good number for a far-right party like the FPÖ considering all the common-sense tough talk on migration and integration by Kurz in previous years. It remains to be seen if many FPÖ-voters really abandon the party and switch to Kurz or if they will stick on election day. This depends if Strache can successfully tie Kurz to the unpopular ÖVP and their governing record. But so far it seems especially a lot of younger former FPÖ-voters might end up voting for Kurz.

[Tender Branson]

After condemning the Manchester terror attack and comforting families on Twitter, Sebastian Kurz will chair the 2-day OSCE anti-terror meeting in Vienna:



http://www.krone.at/welt/kurz-gedanken-sind-bei-den-familien-der-opfer-vor-osze-konferenz-story-570722

[Tender Branson]

Chancellor Kern will fly to Egypt tomorrow to meet with Sisi and to the U.A.E. on Thursday to talk about the Middle-East, Syria and terror prevention.

Meanwhile Kurz talked at the above-mentioned OSCE anti-terror meeting today, in which he is the chair. He said that the Islamic Faith Communities (in Austria and elsewhere) need to step up their game significantly to prevent young Muslims from becoming terrorists and to teach a less-radical version of Islam.

[Tender Branson]

Right now, it's as if the SPÖVP coalition didn't blew up in the last 2 weeks ...

Chancellor Kern invites the leaders and ministers of the other 5 parties to a meeting on Tuesday, to keep working on the remaining agenda for this parliamentary year.

Amazing. First they f**k each other, then they play nice.

They virtually finalized the education reform plan today, with the backing of the Greens.

Good to see that they are still able to pass a couple things before the parliamentary summer recess, which starts in Mid-July.

The initiative to call early elections for October 15 will be voted on in parliament on July 13 (but it now looks as if all parties will vote for it).

[Tender Branson]

The economic platform of the FPÖ, which will be released in late June, was outlined in part today by Strache in Linz and many of their proposals are comparable with the demands of Kurz and the ÖVP.

The FPÖ wants to lower the high government spending from the current 46% to around 40% of GDP, by cutting administration and various subsidies. They also want no budget deficit, something that Austrian politicians basically never managed to achieve so far (contrary to Switzerland and Germany).

Strache also plans to hire Swiss and other foreign experts to weed out Austrian bureaucracy and find ways how to balance the budget.

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Strache also plans a big tax cut for workers, paid for by the above-mentioned restructuring of subsidies, administrative and state reform. (In fact, the Austrian Court of Audit has found a lot of possible measures that could make the state more effective and less expensive).

The FPÖ's plan also rejects any form of new taxes, such as inheritance/death taxes, wealth taxes or robot taxes (the latter one because it would hurt employers, which the FPÖ wants to strenghten).

They also plan more incentives for foreign companies to move to Austria, more incentives for Austrian med students to remain in the country rather than moving abroad (mostly to Germany) and end the tax bracket creep by automatically adjusting it to inflation.

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As you can see, their economic platform is almost identical to the Kurz/ÖVP-plans and the signs are now pointing to ÖVP-FPÖ after the election.

[ApatheticAustrian]

they don't mean their welfare promises literally? gosh, who would have guessed?