Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15

[Tender Branson]

A new "Profil" magazine poll shows 49% of voters think that the FPÖ being in the next government after the October 15 election would damage Austria's image abroad.

40% think a FPÖ-government would not hurt our image abroad.

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-fpoe-regierungsbeteiligung-oesterreich-schaden-8165589

[Tender Branson]

Sebastian Kurz outlined some of his campaign talking points during Sunday newspaper interviews.

The campaign programme will be out in early September, after talking with experts and voters about what to include and not.

The 3 main areas will be:

* economy, jobs, making Austria more competetive again and making the state more effective

* social issues, with a focus on reducing youth unemployment with better education and a better care system for old and retired people

* security (keeping the Balkans route closed, while trying to close the Libya route by bringing all the rescued migrants in the Med. Sea back to Libya, rather than automatically bringing them to Italy. Kurz wants potential African immigrants to stay in North Africa and getting the aid they need there rather than in Europe. This would be a blow to the reckless people smugglers and would lead to fewer people drowning)

Kurz also said "some long-standing ÖVP-traditions or positions could be scrapped or completely overhauled".

As Kurz said in the interview: "I'm a Liberal and Christian-Social."

[Tender Branson]

As the FPÖ prepares for governing (they will very likely be in charge in 6 months) and looking for potential cabinet members, Norbert Hofer has ruled out today that he'll become Vice-Chancellor.

He said he likes his job as 3rd President of Parliament. But let's remember: He also said he's "too young" to run for President, and a couple months later he ran for President.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/blaue-spitzen-ruesten-sich-fuers-regieren/266.399.962

[Tender Branson]

The latest OGM poll for the "Kurier" asked voters which coalition they want after the election:



...

Meanwhile, NEOS-leader Strolz said he prefers ÖVP-Greens-NEOS (but said SPÖ-Greens-NEOS would also be OK for him).

[Tender Branson]

Here are some small parties which could run in October, but who'd get below 1% and who need to collect signatures:

* Team Stronach (does not need signatures, but will likely get below 1%).
* KPÖ (Communist Party of Austria, will definitely run)
* Gilt ! (Your vote/voice counts !, will definitely run)
* CPÖ (Christian Party of Austria, will definitely run according to their website)
* NBZ/GfW (a Turkish-dominated "migrant" party, will likely run)
* Der Wandel (The Change, asking for support on their website)
* SLP (Socialist Left Party, exists only in Vienna)

* BZÖ (don't know if they'll try again, probably not)
* Pirate Party (currently debating it internally)
* EU-AUS (EU-Exit Party, status unknown)

Maybe a few others as well.

Small parties, except the TS, need to collect 2.600 signatures in late July/early August to be on the ballot Austria-wide. They can also collect enough signatures for statewide ballot access too, with signature requirements ranging from 100 to 500 in each state.

Small parties have it really hard in Austria, not really because of the signature requirement (they are low), but because election campaigns are very expensive: The major parties will spend more than 8 Mio. € each for their campaigns. Small parties are also struggling if they have no well-known frontrunner.

Of the parties mentioned above, only comedian Roland Düringer (Gilt !) has high-enough name recognition, but I don't know if his satirical project aimed at non-voters will gain much traction.

[Tender Branson]

The state of Upper Austria, which has a ÖVP-FPÖ coalition, will introduce a constitutional debt brake starting with the 2018 budget.

It means that Upper Austria's future budgets cannot have more outlays than revenues - every budget has to be balanced. Exceptions are only made for natural disasters or a significant recession (like the one after 2007/08).

ÖVP+FPÖ have 70% of seats in state parliament and therefore enough to change the state constitution with a 2/3 vote.

http://ooe.orf.at/news/stories/2846076

[DavidB.]

The state of Upper Austria, which has a ÖVP-FPÖ coalition, will introduce a constitutional debt brake starting with the 2018 budget.

It means that Upper Austria's future budgets cannot have more outlays than revenues - every budget has to be balanced. Exceptions are only made for natural disasters or a significant recession (like the one after 2007/08).

ÖVP+FPÖ have 70% of seats in state parliament and therefore enough to change the state constitution with a 2/3 vote.

http://ooe.orf.at/news/stories/2846076

Great idea.

[Tender Branson]

The state of Upper Austria, which has a ÖVP-FPÖ coalition, will introduce a constitutional debt brake starting with the 2018 budget.

It means that Upper Austria's future budgets cannot have more outlays than revenues - every budget has to be balanced. Exceptions are only made for natural disasters or a significant recession (like the one after 2007/08).

ÖVP+FPÖ have 70% of seats in state parliament and therefore enough to change the state constitution with a 2/3 vote.

http://ooe.orf.at/news/stories/2846076

Great idea.

Yeah, I agree.

I wish we could have the same thing Austria-wide, but it's really hard to get a 2/3 majority for this. One party is always against it for some reason or the other.

It's also funny that states are doing a really good job in balancing their budgets, while the federal government is totally incompetent in achieving it:

Since WW2, Austria virtually always had a budget deficit and debt as a percentage of GDP increased significantly since the early 80s. We need to become more like Switzerland, Germany and the Nordic countries and achieve constant balanced budgets to lower the debt burden for future generations.

[ApatheticAustrian]

this could kill the fpö in nearly every south-eastern federal state.

anyway...."the states" are preventing the national government from getting anything done since....ever.

[Tender Branson]

this could kill the fpö in nearly every south-eastern federal state.

anyway...."the states" are preventing the national government from getting anything done since....ever.

Why "kill" ?

It seems both Kurz and the FPÖ will have the balanced budget and debt break in their campaign platforms. Also NEOS. SPÖ and Greens don't see a need for this debt break and prefer deficit spending.

Kurz will definitely campaign for a "slim, effective" state and also the FPÖ. But this issue alone won't be the reason why the FPÖ performs worse than expected in October. It's simply because many previously centrist, "soft-core" FPÖ voters are now switching to Kurz.

[ApatheticAustrian]

@tender....kill cause the south east got not no patience for the FPÖ ending all of their big welfare promises, just to make kurz happy.

this implement hurts fpö voters the most. can't imagine carinthia,  vienna, burgenland, styria liking such an extreme idea, maybe not even big-spending lower austria.

[Tender Branson]

@tender....kill cause the south east got not no patience for the FPÖ ending all of their big welfare promises, just to make kurz happy.

this implement hurts fpö voters the most. can't imagine carinthia,  vienna, burgenland, styria liking such an extreme idea, maybe not even big-spending lower austria.

The FPÖ doesn't really have a lot of big welfare promises ...

They want to cap the welfare payments for foreigners though, which is what they did in Upper Austria with the ÖVP. Previously, foreigners were able to collect some 850€ a month in welfare. Now with the new law this was capped to around 400€, with an additional 200€ payment if they sign an integration contract in which they pledge to study German and take value courses.

All of this while keeping the current high welfare level for Austrians. I guess this is something that the ÖVP also wants Austria-wide, according to what Kurz said in interviews recently. I'm pretty sure he won't cut welfare for Austrians, but he'll campaign on cutting it for foreigners (who are responsible for the vast majority of welfare payment increases over the past years, because of the migrant influx). A lot of foreigners are simply moving to Austria to collect our generous welfare, he'll say (and he's not wrong).

He can simply point to Vienna, were people on welfare have increased 4-times over the past 10 years to around 200.000 - and after Upper Austria cut their payments for foreigners, these people simply moved to Vienna to collect the higher share there because it wasn't cut by the SPÖ-Green city government ...

[Tender Branson]

A new party has emerged, which will try to run in the October election:



The so-called "real/genuine/pure Reds."

They think the Social Democratic Party is too neo-liberal. Will be interesting to see if they get onto the ballot. They would certainly take some votes away from the SPÖ, primarily from their left-wing.

[Tender Branson]

The SPÖ meanwhile decided to keep their Vienna city councillor who made the sexist remarks against the new ÖVP general secretary.

Also, the leader of the SPÖ parliamentary club (Schieder) invited cheerleaders into parliament:





It seems everything is better than working with the ÖVP right now ...

[Tender Branson]

A real leftist alliance of KPÖ, Pirates, The Change, Genuine Reds and SLP would be nice - like they did for the 2014 EU elections. Maybe Gilt ! could also join in ...

The threshold for parliament is 4% and individually there's no fu**ing chance that one of these parties will get into parliament. But together they could come close.

[rob in cal]

  Tender, that's interesting about a Leftist alliance.  The big danger with it might be that it does get significant support because it would look like it could get past the 4% threshold, and then gets just under the 4%, so then a big chunk of the left wing electorate has wasted its vote.

[Tender Branson]

Another such left-progressive party would be "Aufbruch !" (which can be translated with DAWN !, or RISE !, like in dawn of a new era or departure).



https://aufbruch.or.at

...

Yeah, all these small leftist parties need to get their act together and form an alliance in the next months to be credible.

[Tender Branson]

I tried to predict the Austrian district winners by party, based on current polling and swings:



ÖVP = Teal
SPÖ = Red
FPÖ = Blue
Tie = Yellow

Based on current polling, I expect Zell am See county for example to be 36% ÖVP, 28% FPÖ, 27% SPÖ, 6% Greens, 3% NEOS.

Some Styrian districts are hard to predict because of the high Team Stronach and BZÖ votes in many districts, which are all up for grabs this year. Therefore a lot of projected ties. Some Carinthian districts will be battled out between SPÖ and FPÖ. Also Wels and suburbs in Upper Austria. Lower Austria and Burgenland will mostly see battles between ÖVP and SPÖ in some of the Vienna suburbs.

Here are clickable district maps for previous election years:

http://orf.at/wahlergebnisse/nr13/daten

[ApatheticAustrian]

i am btw at a loss at this point, where the many voters of the SPÖ are coming from....

according to local polls, the SPÖ has become a minor party inf upper austria and salzburg, has lost big-scale in styria, wasn't big to start with in the west and lower austria and there are not a lot of citizens in carinthia and burgenland.

according to new polls, even vienna is trending hard to the fpö and still the spö seems - according to national polls - totally able to reach at least the second place and finish closer to 30 than 20 points.

if this is all kern's work, he is a real political talent.

[TheSaint250]

i am btw at a loss at this point, where the many voters of the SPÖ are coming from....

according to local polls, the SPÖ has become a minor party inf upper austria and salzburg, has lost big-scale in styria, wasn't big to start with in the west and lower austria and there are not a lot of citizens in carinthia and burgenland.

according to new polls, even vienna is trending hard to the fpö and still the spö seems - according to national polls - totally able to reach at least the second place and finish closer to 30 than 20 points.

if this is all kern's work, he is a real political talent.

A big city trending towards a right-wing party is such a foreign thought to me haha

but really though is kern attracting some spo voters or is he just consolidating so much of the fpo vote that he is taking a huge lead

[DavidB.]

Why do all these small parties even try, given that there is a 4% electoral threshold? Especially nonsensical for the Turkish party. It only makes sense to stand in an election if you can realistically get in, like DENK did, but due to the electoral threshold this seems impossible for their Austrian counterparts. They could be much more effective in wielding influence and affecting the policymaking process from within the traditional parties.

[ApatheticAustrian]

A big city trending towards a right-wing party is such a foreign thought to me haha

but really though is kern attracting some spo voters or is he just consolidating so much of the fpo vote that he is taking a huge lead

well, in austria it's not just a city, it's THE city (like in..the only real one) and our conservatives have shrinked since decades to the point of no return ....atm they are polling at about 10 points in vienna.

so it's a combination of:

- no serious conservative competition or alternative.

- vienna fpö being economically a social(ist) party, promising goods and higher wages/pensions (you name it)...which sounds good for working-class voters who got disappointed since globalization.

- the spö has governed without a break since many MANY decades and there is ofc a layer of corruption - like everywhere without alternation.

- and there are ofc the many many many many small and little frustrations in daily life about foreigner, refugees, etc...with the additional effect, that the fpö is not against foreigners in general but tends to praise and court voters from ex-yugoslavia, which are a big voting bloc in vienna.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Why do all these small parties even try, given that there is a 4% electoral threshold?

cynical me would say - at least regarding the "migrants party" - to deny their vote to the other parties.

those turkish-linked parties are terrible.....nihilism meets relativism.

[ApatheticAustrian]

I disagree with Tender regarding the scale of the problems.... (my public school was good enough anyway ) and vienna is building A LOT of new apartments (my district alone adds about a quarter of its population during the next years) ....but in general that's the gist.

mixture of real problems and imagined ones, combined with the fact, that the SPÖ isn't able to subsidize all their voters anymore as in the past and the fpö vienna promises everything and nothing.

it is going to be a key question this october, if the 40 points fpö and 24 points spö poll was even close to reality.

[Tender Branson]

i am btw at a loss at this point, where the many voters of the SPÖ are coming from....

according to local polls, the SPÖ has become a minor party inf upper austria and salzburg, has lost big-scale in styria, wasn't big to start with in the west and lower austria and there are not a lot of citizens in carinthia and burgenland.

according to new polls, even vienna is trending hard to the fpö and still the spö seems - according to national polls - totally able to reach at least the second place and finish closer to 30 than 20 points.

if this is all kern's work, he is a real political talent.

A big city trending towards a right-wing party is such a foreign thought to me haha

but really though is kern attracting some spo voters or is he just consolidating so much of the fpo vote that he is taking a huge lead

Vienna is very special (and crucial to the outcome of the October election). On the one hand it's the world's most liveable city for years according to the Mercer study, battling with Melbourne. Despite having 2 million people, it only had 10 murders last year - something Dallas has in a week. The city has grown by an average of 30.000 people in the last years, mostly Arabs and Africans. While there are no immigrant ghettos like in France or elsewhere, because of many social workers and integration "ambassadors" and the like, there are still massive problems in the city: Every 5th resident of the city is either unemployed or on welfare. The share of people on welfare with a migration background is something like 60%.

About 100.000 school kids are either unable to follow lessons or have it really hard, because they are from families who recently immigrated and where German is hardly spoken at home. There are some schools in Vienna who have close to a 100% migrant background. Austrian parents are either moving to the suburbs or put their kids into private schools because the quality in heavily migrant schools is going down. Teachers and the city are doing their best to integrate the new students from abroad, but it's tough.

Islamic kindergartens are popping up like mushrooms in the city. The Austrian media has highlighted the problems with these kindergartens and even the city agrees they don't have full oversight anymore. Many of the kindergartens are financed by arch-conservative Saudi-Arabia or Turkey, have anti-semtitic teachers who teach anti-semitic, patriarchal and misogynistic views to their students and an extremist view of Islam. Even small girls aged 5 have to wear headscarves.

The huge influx from other countries creates housing problems. The city cannot build enough apartments so quickly, which drives up rents significantly and so on. Debt has increased significantly over the past years.

All of this explains why the FPÖ is doing pretty well in Vienna, but they still won't get much higher than 25-28% in October despite all these problems. Turnout will likely be higher this year, close to 80% Austria-wide and about 75% in Vienna. The higher the turnout, the better for Kern because it means the urban middle-class and retired crowd is turning out for him.