Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15

[Tender Branson]

Sebastian Kurz on Islamic kindergartens in Vienna (which are increasingly a real plague, even the SPÖ-Green city government admits it):

"Islamic kindergartens have to be abolished and children put into state-run kindergartens. All funding for Islamic kindergartens has to be cut to zero."

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/sebastian-kurz-im-kurier-gespraech-islamische-kindergaerten-abschaffen/271.008.503

[aross]

Hate to enter this thread again but it should be said that's not a robot tax as in the recent fad in certain parts of the left, but a rather more specific concept that's been kicking around the Austrian social-democratic movement since the late eighties at least (Ferdinand Lacina, one of Austria's brighter recent finance minsters, was and is a particular advocate). Basically the idea is so as to be both fairer and reflect reality better, social security contributions from employers should be based not (just) on wages payed as they are at present but (also) on value added. This would help the labour market not only by preventing excessive mechanisation but far more importantly by greatly reducing ancillary costs and encouraging job creation.

It greatly #triggers the ÖVP and has thus never happened but is nonetheless raised again from time to time, most recently by Kern in what was more of a sop to those who propelled him to the top job than anything else, I wouldn't expect him to actually do it.

[Tender Branson]

Hate to enter this thread again (...)

Why ?

You are welcome to post a lot more.

[Tender Branson]

This and next week will probably be the best weeks of SPÖ+ÖVP since they started back in 2013.

Just a month or two ago it looked as if the climate between SPÖ+ÖVP was so toxic that they wouldn't even talk with each other any longer.

But now, the desire to "get things done" before the Oct. 15 election has led to new energy and actually a lot has been achieved over the past 2 weeks.

Some things that will be passed in parliament next week (during the final sessions of this year before the summer recess):

* education reform (with the votes of the Greens)
* healthcare reform
* job bonus for companies hiring previously unemployed Austrians
* 20.000+ employment program for older unemployed above age 50
* increase in R&D spending
* reform of the personal bankruptcy law
* higher university student allowance/aid
* a small reform of the crime law, with tougher punishments for sex offenders
* a tougher law on asylum seekers, with higher penalties and cuts for those who abuse the system or refuse to leave the country if their asylum request was denied

There's also a so-called "security package" (championed by Interior Minister Sobotka), but this is still being debated and reviewed because it contains some controversial privacy-infringing measures to combat terrorism.

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Chancellor Kern, in a press statement yesterday, also called it a "good week for the country, for the people looking for work and the companies".

http://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5238463/Beschaeftigungsbonus-mit-1-Juli-startklar

[Tender Branson]

Strache copies Trump:

http://www.jpost.com/International/Austrian-far-right-leader-calls-to-recognize-Jerusalem-as-capital-497537

... the same day he accuses Kurz of copying the FPÖ's long-time idea of closing all Muslim kindergartens.

(Strache previously referred to Kurz as a "closet-Chinese", because they copy everything too.)

[Tender Branson]

SPÖ and ÖVP have 2 different campaign strategies right now:

* The SPÖ has officially opened their campaign headquarters yesterday and presented a new online and poster campaign, focused on old age care and scrapping the so-called "care-regress" (don't know the English name for it).



It virtually means that if you are old and in poor health and in need of care at home or a retirement home, then the state can tap into your assets to pay for that care. Austrian states have varying laws on how much the state can tap into these assets. Many states also allow the state to tap into the husband/wife's assets. Tapping children's wealth was abolished some time ago. Kern and the SPÖ wants to abolish this care regress, so that the state fully finances care for old people.

For this, the SPÖ is also out with a new campaign video showing an old man who built everything on his own and then the government taps into his savings because he's in need of care:

https://www.facebook.com/Sozialdemokratie/videos/10155142546265081



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* The ÖVP and Kurz keep campaigning on closing the Med-Sea route for migrants and abolishing Muslim kindergartens.

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These 2 different strategies are the result of polling, which shows that Kern leads Kurz among social topics. Kurz on the other hand outperforms Kern in topics such as migration, security and terrorism.

The more Kern can shift the focus on social issues such as old-age care, health care, education etc. in the coming months, the better for him. If it's the other way around, good for Kurz (and Strache).

[Tender Branson]

New monthly "Profil" magazine poll by Unique Research:

32% ÖVP (-1)
28% SPÖ (+1)
25% FPÖ (-1)
  8% Greens (n.c.)
  5% NEOS (n.c.)
  2% Others (+1)

Compared with 2013:

ÖVP (+8%), SPÖ (+1%), FPÖ (+4.5%), Greens (-4.5%), NEOS (n.c.), Others (-9%)

Chancellor vote:

35% Kurz (ÖVP)
32% Kern (SPÖ, incumbent)
13% Strache (FPÖ)
  2% Lunacek (Greens)
  2% Strolz (NEOS)

Who is better for Austria's economy ?

35-29 Kurz/Kern

Who has the best solutions to lead Austria into a better future ?

37-31 Kurz/Kern

Who is closer to the people/understands the concerns of the people ?

30-29 Kern/Kurz

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20170624_OTS0003/profil-umfrage-kanzlerfrage-kurz-klar-voran

[Tender Branson]

Hiking with President Van der Bellen at the Alpine Peace Crossing in Krimml (50km away from here), remembering the Jewish Exodus (or evacuation) from Austria to Israel back in 1947:

[TheSaint250]

Does it look like FPÖ will come in second, and if so, would that be the first time post-WWII that one of the two main parties came in third (or worse, if possible)

[FrancoAgo]

FPOe get 2nd place also in '99, with 4 hundreds votes margin on SPOe

[Tender Branson]

FPOe get 2nd place also in '99, with 4 hundreds votes margin on SPOe ÖVP.

Corrected this for you.

SPÖ clearly won the 1999 election with 33%.

FPÖ and ÖVP had 27% each, but the FPÖ got 415 votes more.

[Tender Branson]

Does it look like FPÖ will come in second, and if so, would that be the first time post-WWII that one of the two main parties came in third (or worse, if possible)

No, all current polls show the FPÖ has fallen back to 3rd place again with 25% - after being first with 35% for most of 2016.

And if anything, the FPÖ will likely keep losing during the campaign because SPÖ and ÖVP are hunting their voters. I guess 22-24% will be the end result for the FPÖ.

[TheSaint250]

Does it look like FPÖ will come in second, and if so, would that be the first time post-WWII that one of the two main parties came in third (or worse, if possible)

No, all current polls show the FPÖ has fallen back to 3rd place again with 25% - after being first with 35% for most of 2016.

And if anything, the FPÖ will likely keep losing during the campaign because SPÖ and ÖVP are hunting their voters. I guess 22-24% will be the end result for the FPÖ.

Ok thanks. Some of the polls have been confusing, with some showing FPÖ in second and others showing it in third

[Tender Branson]

Does it look like FPÖ will come in second, and if so, would that be the first time post-WWII that one of the two main parties came in third (or worse, if possible)

No, all current polls show the FPÖ has fallen back to 3rd place again with 25% - after being first with 35% for most of 2016.

And if anything, the FPÖ will likely keep losing during the campaign because SPÖ and ÖVP are hunting their voters. I guess 22-24% will be the end result for the FPÖ.

Ok thanks. Some of the polls have been confusing, with some showing FPÖ in second and others showing it in third

There's only 1 poll that's showing the SPÖ doing badly, the Research Affairs poll for tabloid Ö24 (a notorious FPÖ and ÖVP-leaning paper, like the Krone). Their polls also overestimated Hofer by 2-5% in the runoffs.

I also believe that the FPÖ's best days are behind them already, because the migrant situation has calmed down and asylum requests are down to a projected 30.000 this year, compared with 100.000 in 2015 and 50.000 in 2016.

The focus is shifting more towards long-term issues such as pensions/retirement, old-age care,  taxes and tax reform as well as improving the economy and creating more jobs. Areas where the FPÖ has virtually no competence.

And Trump doesn't help them either ...

But: The FPÖ will of course still do well with more than 20%, because there's a good enough segment in the population that are protest voters.

[Tender Branson]

The first ÖVP Kurz campaign posters will be up next week all over the country ... (there's no ÖVP-logo on the posters).

The slogan will be:

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On the posters, Kurz either talks with retired women, children or middle-aged folks.

[FrancoAgo]

Corrected this for you.

thank you

[Tender Branson]

Today, the Green Party convention took place in Linz.



Ingrid Felipe (from the more pragmatic conserva-green wing) was elected new party leader with 93.7% of the delegates, while Ulrike Lunacek (from the more ideological left wing of the party) was elected frontrunner for the election with 96.5% of the delegates.

In their speeches, they said that the Greens can be the winners of the election and that they are the only credible choice for voters. They attacked the other parties of being right-wing (even the SPÖ) or neoliberal and turning Austria into "Orbanistan 2.0" and that voting for the Greens is a vote against the FPÖ in government.

They warned against a new ÖVP-FPÖ coalition, because Austria has already paid a heavy price during the previous government from 2000-2006. They attacked Kurz on his plans to fully close the Mediterranian route for migrants, saying "you cannot switch off people who are fleeing war and misery like a water tap."

The Greens are for an open, tolerant society and their focus is an election result with a strong Green showing and a strongly pro-European, ecological, social majority after the election. They said Strache = AustroTrump and attacked Trump's climate policy.

On the issues, the Greens favour an inheritance tax to finance old-age care (like the SPÖ), but contrary to the Social Democrats who want to tax assets over 1 million €, the Greens want the tax to start with assets over 500.000€ already.

Other important issues for the Green campaign will be a 1750€ (=15€/hour) minimum wage, full wage equality for women, full marriage rights for LGBTs (not just in all-but-name) and a focus on cheap/livable housing and apartments (something usually championed by the SPÖ and KPÖ).

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/gruenes-fuehrungsduo-lunacek-und-felipe-gewaehlt/271.700.655

[Tender Branson]

The biggest anti-Semitic march (a total disgrace) took place in Vienna:

http://derstandard.at/2000059767075/Al-Quds-Tag-Israelfeindliche-Demo-zog-durch-Wien

It's the so-called "Al-Quds" march, in which mostly hundreds of Arabs (and a few Neo-Nazis) marched against Zionism and Israel, shouting "Zionism is Fascism".

Small 5-year old children in uniforms were also present, waving anti-Israel flags.

Anti-Fa counter protesters were also in the hundreds.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Happy to see the austrian anti-fa still on the right side oh history when it counts. The alliance of islamists and the far-left in some countries is worrisome enough.

[TheSaint250]

The biggest anti-Semitic march (a total disgrace) took place in Vienna:

http://derstandard.at/2000059767075/Al-Quds-Tag-Israelfeindliche-Demo-zog-durch-Wien

It's the so-called "Al-Quds" march, in which mostly hundreds of Arabs (and a few Neo-Nazis) marched against Zionism and Israel, shouting "Zionism is Fascism".

Small 5-year old children in uniforms were also present, waving anti-Israel flags.

Anti-Fa counter protesters were also in the hundreds.

Do I...do I actually agree with Antifa on something?

[Tender Branson]

New "Market" poll for the "Standard" newspaper (phone + online, June 20-21, n=815):

33% ÖVP (+1)
26% SPÖ (-1)
24% FPÖ (-1)
  9% Greens (n.c.)
  4% NEOS (-1)
  4% Others (+2)

http://derstandard.at/2000059778070/33-26-24-Prozent-OeVP-baut-Vorsprung-vor-SPOe-und

That's pretty similar to an internal ÖVP-poll, reported in the OÖN newspaper today, which has the ÖVP at 32%, the SPÖ at 26% and the FPÖ at 24%.

http://www.nachrichten.at/nachrichten/politik/landespolitik/Schwarze-Euphorie-Kurz-saugt-blaue-Stimmen-auf;art383,2604498

[Tender Branson]

Later in the day, the Green delegates axed Peter Pilz - one of the Greens' most prominent MPs - from their election list. Pilz has been a Green MP for over 30 years, from the left-populist wing of the party and "chief detective" of the party.

http://derstandard.at/2000059771938/Demontage-von-Peter-Pilz-Politisch-dumm

OMG !

Once again, this is creating huge intra-party debates.

Pilz was a major reason why people voted for the Greens in the first place with his activism and uncoverings over the past years and decades and by putting salt into the wounds in topics that badly needed a closer look.

First, the Greens kicked out Efgani Dönmez, a very realistic Green MP (like myself), who dared to be critical of violent and non-integrating immigrants (such as Turks or Arabs).

Then the Greens got rid of their long-time leader Eva Glawischnig, because a narcissistic child (Flora Petrik) threw a tantrum.

And now they kick out Pilz. No wonder the Greens are heading for 8% (or less) in this election ...

[ApatheticAustrian]

I am shocked to hear how bad the party is treating Pilz.

Makes my vote bullet-proof SPÖ this time, i guess.

[Tender Branson]

The Young Greens (who got kicked out of the Green Party a while ago) will run on a joint platform with the Communists, called "KPÖ Plus":



If the Young Greens and their voters really abandon the Greens for the KPÖ on election day too, "KPÖ Plus" could get some 2% instead of 1%. And the Green Party could drop further towards 7%.

http://derstandard.at/2000059808686/Junge-Gruene-treten-mit-KPOe-bei-Nationalratswahl-an

[Tender Branson]

So, what's up with the FPÖ and Strache ?

Not much. In Tyrol, the FPÖ was involved in "pig-gate": A local FPÖ-youth group had barbecue recently and posted pictures of it on Facebook. Later in the night, they dumped the pig-head on the grounds of the local Turkish mosque (during Ramadan). In the morning, the Turks found the pig head and called the police - who called the BVT (Office for the Protection of the Constitution and Anti-Terror Agency) to investigate the issue. The BVT found the Facebook post (put online the night when the pig head was dumped). Later, the FPÖ had to announce: "It was in fact our pig head."

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https://kurier.at/chronik/oesterreich/rfj-obmann-zur-schweinskopf-affaere-es-handelt-sich-tatsaechlich-um-unseren/271.437.088

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Meanwhile, Strache was on the Ö3 radio on Sunday for a couple hours and talked about various issues. He also said he's planning a future church marriage with his wife Philippa and wants some kids with her (he already has 2 young kids from a previous marriage). Sounds like he has a "Plan B" if the FPÖ doesn't do well in the election ...



Another interesting fact: Strache will vacation with the kids in Ibiza, Spain in July - like Chancellor Kern.

https://www.news.at/a/strache-fruehstueck-bei-mir-8205378

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Talking about Ö3 radio: Sebastian Kurz announced today that the popular and well-known radio moderator Peter L. Eppinger will become his campaign speaker and social media and event manager. Basically, he will serve as "voice of the movement" and be the link between Kurz and his supporters and volunteers.

Eppinger (who already quit Ö3 for the new political job) previously worked there for over 20 years and moderated the "Drive Time Show" between 4pm and 7pm, when people drive home from work.



http://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5241598/Eppingers-neue-Sternstunde-bei-der-OeVP