Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15

[Tender Branson]

According to the APA (Austrian Press Agency), the migrant NBZ party has only made the ballot in the state of Vorarlberg. Not even in Vienna, LOL.

APA also contacted the EU-Exit Party, the Christian CPÖ party, the Men's Party and the Free Nativist Movement (FHB), but all of them said they were still collecting signatures until tomorrow's 5pm deadline.

[freek]

About 9% of Austria's 6.4 million eligible voters have a migration background.

What is the definition of a migration background? Born abroad, one of the parents born abroad, or something different?

[Tender Branson]

About 9% of Austria's 6.4 million eligible voters have a migration background.

What is the definition of a migration background? Born abroad, one of the parents born abroad, or something different?

I have the data from the "Medien-Servicestelle Neue ÖsterreicherInnen", which is an interest group for foreign people and those with a foreign background and responsible for providing statistical data of migrants to Austrian journalists.

They have their data from STATISTICS Austria.

The official data is based on the EU-wide concept of the "Micro-Census", which is done every few weeks, also for example to calculate monthly unemployment rates etc.

The definition of "migrant background" is like this:

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[Tender Branson]

New ATV Austria Trend poll (August 9-16, n=700):

32% ÖVP
27% SPÖ
24% FPÖ
  6% NEOS
  5% Greens
  4% Pilz
  2% Others

Historical low for the Remnant-Greens.

Most of the poll was conducted before the SPÖ Silberstein scandal though.

Turnout is projected to be 78-84% in that poll.

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20170818_OTS0108/atv-oesterreich-trend-erstmalig-liegen-die-neos-vor-den-gruenen

PDF

[Tender Branson]

The 5pm deadline for ballot access has passed.

The Interior Ministry has posted a list of parties that have submitted enough signatures to run Austria-wide and some only statewide.

On the ballot Austria-wide (10 parties)*

* SPÖ
* ÖVP
* FPÖ
* Greens
* NEOS
* Pilz
* FLÖ
* G!LT
* KPÖ+
* The Whites

Only in some states*

* SLP (in Vienna and Upper Austria)
* ODP (in Vienna)
* EU Exit Party (in Vienna)
* CPÖ (in Vorarlberg
* Men's Party (in Vorarlberg)
* NBZ (in Vorarlberg)

Vienna and Vorarlberg will have 13 parties on their ballot, 11 in Upper Austria, 10 in other states.

* The Interior Ministry will validate the signatures and officially announce next Thursday which parties have qualified.

BMI Link

[Tender Branson]

neuwal.com has the ballot access chart for the Oct. 15 parliamentary election:



* pending signature validation by the BMI

[Tender Branson]

Pretty stunning that the "Whites" made it onto the ballot in all of Austria.

I have never heard of them before. They are not white supremacists, but a pro-democracy movement.



According to their website, they seem to be some transparency initiative which favours a highly democratic "citizen parliament" via tele-voting (Mail, App, Social media etc.), in which every citizen can vote on a parliamentary issue and the result will lead to their MPs being "messengers" of the people in parliament ...

https://dieweissen.at

[Tender Branson]

From the ORF:

The "Whites" made it onto the ballot Austria-wide because of the signatures of 3 ex-Team Stronach MPs in parliament, not because they collected the necessary 2600 signatures from voters.

It remains to be seen if these 3 TS-members are also on their federal list for the election (will be released by the Ministry of the Interior in about 2 weeks), or if their support was just a farewell thing to support a random small party ...

[Tender Branson]

Chancellor Kern and the SPÖ are out with a new Obama-style ad called "Austria is successful":

https://www.facebook.com/bundeskanzler.christian.kern/videos/856401857848458

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I also found a recent promotion video from the Kurz-ÖVP ("Open for: ..."):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9S0D0uDv3dE

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The other parties do not have any ads yet.

[Tender Branson]

According to the new ATV poll, Austrian voters surprisingly do not think that the current election campaign is dirty so far:



38% Yes, there's dirty campaigning
55% No

[Tender Branson]

Peter Pilz has presented another 2 candidates yesterday:



* Alma Zadic, who came as a refugee from Bosnia in 1994 and lawyer
* Teresa Roscher, (old age) care specialist

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Together with the others, Pilz has now presented 11 candidates (6 of them women):





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The candidates are experts in:

* IT security
* Bio-Chemistry
* Consumer protection
* Refugee integration and business startups
* Animal rights
* Women's and Children's rights
* Old age care
* Lawsuits
* One is a former Green budget and finance speaker
* One is a former Green cultural speaker
* Pilz himself is a fighter against corruption
* Daniela Holzinger (ex-SPÖ) is a vocal CETA/TTIP-critic

[Tender Branson]

Oh man, how stupid can the SPÖ be ?

After the internal fights (literally) a month ago, then the re-start at the mini-party-convention, then the Silberstein-scandal, then a good ad yesterday and now the next scandal for the SPÖ:

To replace Silberstein as their adviser, they chose the man who last year published a text in which he referred to Norbert Hofer (FPÖ) as a cripple (Hofer uses a stick for walking, after becoming almost paralyzed during a paragliding crash).

The yo-yo campaign for the SPÖ continues: Crash and burn, then re-start, then crash and burn and so on. It seems they want to lose the election.

[Bumaye]

Is theoretically some form of coalition with ÖVP and PILZ thinkable or not?

[Tender Branson]

Is theoretically some form of coalition with ÖVP and PILZ thinkable or not?

Theoretically yes, practically no.

I still think that ÖVP-FPÖ is a done deal.

[Tender Branson]

Chancellor Kern started a 50-stop Austria-wide campaign tour today, using a bus with "Here comes the economic upswing !" on it.

Kern will campaign 5-6 days a week now, visiting a city or two each day now for the next several weeks.







The first stop of the tour was Klagenfurt in Carinthia, where Kern also ran the city marathon today with his wife:



At least he's still trying to win the election, despite the party being such a drag on his chances ...

[Tender Branson]

This is the Chancellor's new campaign bus:



Printed on it:

"Here comes the [economic] upswing. Take what you deserve. Chancellor Christian Kern."

[mvd10]

Will Kern stay on if he loses? He's pretty popular and it's clear that the SPÖ is losing despite him and not because of him. And he hasn't been Chancellor for very long. I imagine that someone who has been in power for 4 or 5 years doesn't want to become opposition leader anymore, but Kern might want another shot because his term lasted a year. But he still could win with a little help from the ÖVP (and maybe the Turkish government hehe). The VVD was at 16% in the polls a week before the election and they ended up at 22%. A similar jump for the SPÖ could make them the biggest party, but they still might end up in opposition in that case.

[Tender Branson]

Will Kern stay on if he loses? He's pretty popular and it's clear that the SPÖ is losing despite him and not because of him. And he hasn't been Chancellor for very long. I imagine that someone who has been in power for 4 or 5 years doesn't want to become opposition leader anymore, but Kern might want another shot because his term lasted a year. But he still could win with a little help from the ÖVP (and maybe the Turkish government hehe). The VVD was at 16% in the polls a week before the election and they ended up at 22%. A similar jump for the SPÖ could make them the biggest party, but they still might end up in opposition in that case.

On Kern: I think Kern would step down as party leader if he loses the election. With Kern vs. Kurz it's like in Harry Potter: "Neither can live while the other survives". Both are political alpha-males and one has to go after the election. You are right, he's still very popular personally and if he steps down he could become the new Vienna mayor instead (because mayor Häupl has finally decided to retire after some 25 years in the job). Pamela Rendi-Wagner (health minister) or Hans-Peter Doskozil (defense minister), both very popular and the wing-wo/men for Kern in the campaign, could become the new opposition leaders if ÖVP-FPÖ is formed after the election.

On Turkey: If Turkey starts to agitate and meddle again (which Erdogan is doing right now in Germany), it would mostly help the ÖVP here because Kurz is a hardliner against Erdogan. Just today, Kurz basically told Erdogan to f**k himself and that he should stop meddling in the German and Austrian elections. Kern doesn't really benefit from Erdogan-criticism, because many Austro-Turks usually are loyal SPÖ-voters, so if Kern is too hard on Erdogan many of them will stay home instead ... It's better for Kern to be anti-Trump.

http://www.politico.eu/article/austria-turkey-sebastian-kurz-erdogan-minister-tells-not-to-interfere-in-european-politics

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ will offically start their campaign this week.

Strache has been very quiet over the past months and has gone on a second Ibiza vacation the past week with his wife Philippa.

Tonight, the ORF will interview Strache during primetime as part of their "summer interviews".

On Wednesday, the FPÖ will present their economic election platform - called "Freedom, Fairness, Progress".

And on Thursday, the FPÖ will present their new poster campaign - with the main theme being "Austria First !"

On August 31, Strache and Hofer will start an Austria campaign tour.

On September 16, the official campaign kickoff event and speeches will take place in Wels, Upper Austria (a major battleground city and state).

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Strache-heute-im-1-TV-Talk/295832038

[Tender Branson]

There was a big anti-terror training event in Vienna today, involving some 200 special forces from Austria, Germany, Hungary, Slovakia and Slovenia.

The assumption was that terrorists took over a passenger cruise ship (the "Viking Freya") on the Danube river and taking numerous hostages.

Video of the special forces storming the hostage ship via helicopters and boats (click on HD):

Video Link

[Tender Branson]

Quite a boring summer interview from FPÖ-Strache yesterday evening on the ORF.



Strache did eat a lot of chalk it seems and was very centrist, avoiding any radical statements. It seems he's trying the laid-back campaign strategy of Norbert Hofer last year instead of bashing foreigners every 5 seconds.

After the interview, 3 journalists analyzed his performance and said that "there's nothing left to the Right of Kurz", meaning that Kurz has done such a good job in taking up FPÖ-policies and in attracting FPÖ-voters that Strache has no USP (=unique selling point) anymore.

An example for Strache-talk yesterday:

ORF journalist: "Mr. Strache, as a dental expert yourself: Over the past 10 years, the number of kids with karies significantly dropped because of better health services, bank robberies went down significantly and deaths on the road halved. The FPÖ always says everything is worse now. Did anything positive happen in Austria over the past decade ?"

Strache replied:

"Today, a bank robber does not rob a bank anymore, he founds one."

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In other news, NEOS will launch their first poster campaign tomorrow.

[Tender Branson]

I think the worst is over now for Chancellor Kern and the SPÖ, with Kern campaigning non-stop through Austria with his bus.

Tomorrow, he will meet French President Macron in Salzburg and together they will visit the famous Salzburg Festival. Security for Macron's visit is enormous.



But it's a chance for Kern to be statesman-like once again and leave the Silberstein scandal behind him.

Also, Sebastian Kurz will only present his campaign platform next month, while Kern has already laid out his "Plan A" in January. Similiar to Teresa May, Kurz might still fumble it if experts and the media take a closer look at some of his planned proposals ... On the other hand, the media has already looked into Kern's plan for months and found no real flaws.

[Tender Branson]

SPÖ & ÖVP agreed to raise pensions today, by 2.2% next year (which is more than the current inflation rate of 1.6%):

http://derstandard.at/2000062971352/Regierung-beschloss-Erhoehung-um-2-2-Prozent-fuer-kleine-Pensionen

NEOS called the pension increases a "wasted election goodie", which I don't really understand: the pensions should definitely rise by slightly more than the inflation rate each year and besides, the increase is already on-budget and would not increase the budget deficit next year.

[mvd10]

Do you think there could be any "dementia taxes" in Kurz' platform? Isn't the 14 billion tax cut practically the only thing he released? I guess that has to mean unpopular spending cuts which could be controversial. But in the Netherlands the VVD's platform also included a massive tax cut and welfare cuts (they wanted to freeze all benefits except for the pensions) and nobody cared. Their proposal to invest more money in elderly care (paid for by other healthcare cuts) got more attention and nobody really cared about the spending cuts. Left-wing leaders tried to bring it up a couple of times but it didn't really work. Then again, the VVD's base basically is wealthy people while I suppose a Christian Democratic party has a much broader base which probably wouldn't appreciate a "Thatcherite" platform as much as the VVD base. Are there any polls on how people vote by education and income in Austria? I'd be interested in that.

[Tender Branson]

Do you think there could be any "dementia taxes" in Kurz' platform? Isn't the 14 billion tax cut practically the only thing he released? I guess that has to mean unpopular spending cuts which could be controversial. But in the Netherlands the VVD's platform also included a massive tax cut and welfare cuts (they wanted to freeze all benefits except for the pensions) and nobody cared. Their proposal to invest more money in elderly care (paid for by other healthcare cuts) got more attention and nobody really cared about the spending cuts. Left-wing leaders tried to bring it up a couple of times but it didn't really work. Then again, the VVD's base basically is wealthy people while I suppose a Christian Democratic party has a much broader base which probably wouldn't appreciate a "Thatcherite" platform as much as the VVD base. Are there any polls on how people vote by education and income in Austria? I'd be interested in that.

The thing is that there are virtually no leaks on Kurz's election platform so far, only that it'll be out in mid-to-late-September. The only leaks were the broad 14 Bio. € cuts that you mentioned in June, by slashing various subsidies (especially for foreigners and asylum seekers).

But I have also mentioned back then that these cuts would only be worth 1 Bio. € at most, so Kurz has some explaining to do where he wants to cut or save the other 13 Bio. € (he also said that pensions and care for old people would actually be increased, not cut).

I think it's virtually impossible to enact these cuts. The SPÖ's plans make a lot more sense (and they are also smaller in volume).

The presentation of Kurz's plans just 3 weeks before the election is a very big and dangerous gamble IMO, and in recent months he was constantly attacked for not providing it earlier. People are simply supporting Kurz in the polls right now, without actually knowing what they can expect in terms of social policies. Kurz's support only seems to be based on his tough migrant line.

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There are only some polls on education and income in Austria, such as SORA's election weekend polls. All polls show that the higher the education, the lower the FPÖ share. Same with income. Lower educated voters are strong FPÖ and SPÖ voters. Higher educated ones have a higher-than-average ÖVP, Green and NEOS share.