Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15

[mgop]

so spo, ovp and fpo all hate eachother but 2 of that 3 party will have to form a coalition. it's gonna be long negotiations, maybe even something like holland.

[DavidB.]

so spo, ovp and fpo all hate eachother but 2 of that 3 party will have to form a coalition. it's gonna be long negotiations, maybe even something like holland.

No, it's not. ÖVP and FPÖ will form a coalition fairly easily if they win a majority.

[America Needs R'hllor]

I'd probably vote for SPÖ because Kern is a great Chancellor. NEOS are an option though.

[Zinneke]

Would vote PILZ based on the info from here and elsewhere but I know the SPÖ a wee bit better and would still tactically back them if it comes down to a 3 horse race.

[parochial boy]

so spo, ovp and fpo all hate eachother but 2 of that 3 party will have to form a coalition. it's gonna be long negotiations, maybe even something like holland.

No, it's not. ÖVP and FPÖ will form a coalition fairly easily if they win a majority.

And then hopefully the FPO will go the same way as last time they went into coalition with the OVP

[DavidB.]

so spo, ovp and fpo all hate eachother but 2 of that 3 party will have to form a coalition. it's gonna be long negotiations, maybe even something like holland.

No, it's not. ÖVP and FPÖ will form a coalition fairly easily if they win a majority.

And then hopefully the FPO will go the same way as last time they went into coalition with the OVP

Could be, but not without setting the agenda on immigration and pulling other parties to the right.

[Tender Branson]

so spo, ovp and fpo all hate eachother but 2 of that 3 party will have to form a coalition. it's gonna be long negotiations, maybe even something like holland.

No, it's not. ÖVP and FPÖ will form a coalition fairly easily if they win a majority.

And then hopefully the FPO will go the same way as last time they went into coalition with the OVP

Not necessarily => see Upper Austria, where the current ÖVP-FPÖ coalition has a 75% approval rating.

If ÖVP and FPÖ form a coalition after Oct. 15, which is likely, and if they avoid corruption and focus on immigration, tax cuts and keeping the economy going, they could be fairly popular (60% approve).

[Tender Branson]

The campaign here is now almost as boring as the German one ...

There are even similarities between Kurz and Merkel now, with both trying to please everyone.

On Twitter and Facebook, Kurz posted:

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... while at the same time being very tough on immigration and integration.

[Tender Branson]

Strache strongly attacks Kurz for his Eid-al-Adha post above:

* "That's how the integration work of Kurz looks like."
* "Kurz said Islam is a part of Austria." It is not.
* "Islamisation of Austria and the butchering and abuse of animals needs to stop."

[DavidB.]

I love how right-wing nationalists always start caring about animals when it's about the meat that is only consumed by Muslims and Jews

[rob in cal]

  If the Pilz party keeps its momentum up I wonder if the Greens will be in danger of not making the threshold to win seats and then perhaps some of their voters will abandon them to Pilz, Neos and SPO in the closing days of the campaign, so that it becomes a snowball effect.

[Tender Branson]

The "Wahlkabine" tool is now online, to see which Austrian party is closest to your views:

https://wahlkabine.at

My results:

+209 SPÖ
+153 KPÖ
+142 Greens
+  83 Pilz
+    4 ÖVP

-     5 NEOS
-   40 FLÖ
-   70 FPÖ

[Tender Branson]

There's another election tool out today, the "neuwal.com" BAROMETER, in which you can also answer 26 questions.

https://neuwal.com/barometer/profile.php?b=9&p=1#barometerCheck

Click on "Du" (You) to answer the questions and the on Analysis at the bottom to get your results.

My results (the lower the score, the lower the deviation with the party's positions):



(The Whites were the only party to not submit positions on the questions.)

[Kringla Heimsins]

I did the Wahlkabine test (almost without using Google translate!) but I accidentally closed the window before writing down all my scores. All I can say is that I got the KPÖ at 305, then the Greens, with the SPD far down and most other parties in the negatives.

[parochial boy]

I love how right-wing nationalists always start caring about animals when it's about the meat that is only consumed by Muslims and Jews

Hitler was a vegetarian™

[DavidB.]

Wahlkabine:
FPÖ 112
FLÖ 92
ÖVP 90
SPÖ -2
NEOS -15
GRÜNE -56
PILZ -85
KPÖ -130

[Bumaye]

You damn centrists. ^^  
  

[MAINEiac4434]

I have no idea what the ODP is and I assume the NBZ is the Austrian equivalent of DENK. Out of all of these I think I'd be most likely SPÖ, PILZ or KPÖ.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I'd vote tactically to try and get Pilz or Greens above the threshold. I think the best thing to hope for would be for SPO to leave government for a nasty OVP/FPO government that alienates people, and try and build a SPO led coalition government with NEOS/Greens/Pilz for next election.

Btw has there ever been talk of abolishing the threshold?

[Tender Branson]

Btw has there ever been talk of abolishing the threshold?

No, there are more important things than this ...

[Tender Branson]

Kurz presented the 1st part of his election platform, a 120-page chapter focusing on a better economy via massive tax cuts for workers and lowering the tax brackets and ending the automatic tax bracket creep. The plan also shows huge corporate tax cuts for business owners, non-wage labour costs and big tax credits for families with kids. Plus a small benefit package for first-time home builders/buyers.

All of this should be counter-financed by much higher revenues through higher GDP growth and a job boom (which would lead to higher tax and consumption revenues). Spending cuts are also a big junk of his plan. And huge cuts to welfare payments to foreigners, also EU-foreigners. Kurz wants to suspend payments for the first 5 years of a foreigner being in Austria. He expects the EU-commission to go ahead with it. Welfare payments for asylum seekers would be cut by more than half, with an additional "pocket money" if they sign a values and integration contract - in which the immigrants are OKing Austrian values, sending their kids to school, taking part in language and labour market courses etc. Another part will be "system efficiency", in which outlays are reviewed for pork and wasteful spending that could be cut and weeding out tax fraud.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/harsche-kritik-an-kurz-milliardenplaenen/284.587.801

The FPÖ is outraged with Kurz's plans, saying today he stole everything from their plan:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-austria-election/austrias-far-right-party-accuses-conservatives-of-stealing-campaign-ideas-idUSKCN1BG2GW

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Btw has there ever been talk of abolishing the threshold?

No, there are more important things than this ...

I mean, if we can't complain about election systems in the useletionatlas, what exactly can we talk about?

[Tender Branson]

Btw has there ever been talk of abolishing the threshold?

No, there are more important things than this ...

I mean, if we can't complain about election systems in the useletionatlas, what exactly can we talk about?

Of course you can talk about it. But I was just saying that there's no debate about scrapping it in Austria.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Greens 257
KPÖ 240
PILZ 212
SPÖ 127
NEOS 101

FPÖ -69
FLÖ -95
ÖVP -151

[Tender Branson]

In Chancellor Kern's summer interview with the ORF yesterday evening, he said something very interesting:

"If the SPÖ does not win the election, I'd say we should go into opposition."

Either it seems that Kern doesn't really want a coalition with the FPÖ (nor anything else, because mathematically impossible or dysfunctional), or he used it as an option for undecideds or late-deciders to lure them into voting for the SPÖ to block ÖVP-FPÖ.

Kern's summer interview was watched by 920.000 people, about 100.000 fewer than Kurz's interview last week.

http://orf.at/stories/2405735/2405734