Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15

[ApatheticAustrian]

i think kurz/kern could prevent....MAAAAYBE the fpö one last time, but i don't think this is worth it....

easier to reject strache like haider in 2000 and install another FPÖ-chancellor....maybe some fiscal-conservative woman.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Lugar?

chief of team stronach, frank stronach's zombie-like fringe-right-party.

[ApatheticAustrian]

i think this announcement means his endless shilling for hofer and general FPÖ positions wasn't good enough to get an invitation to join the FPÖ team.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Is a SPÖ-NEOS-Green possible in the future?

maaaaaybe it is enough, but HIIIIIIIIGHLY unlikely...would be risky for all parties but especially the smaller ones.

liberal parties are always kind of weird in austria to begin with.

[ApatheticAustrian]

in general i agree with Tender but i think the "over-polling" has to do with poll researchers trying to out-balance the "shy fpö" vote .....and the published "real" numbers then could lead  to a counter-push by less likely voters and strategical voters to decrease the FPÖ margin. Makes it look like the FPÖ is weaker than thought when, in fact, maybe the numbers have been correct a few weeks earlier.

btw....live from moscow:




FPÖ-EU leader and self-tazing idiot Vilimsky, FPÖ chief Strache, presidential candidate Hofer and Strache's successor (in Vienna and maybe also on a national level) Gudenus.

[ApatheticAustrian]

anti-communist austria and the communist party got that base for decades, then the greens came...at that time they have been a far-left-party.....

...nowaday there just aren't enough votes left for the left, if conservatives and right-wing together get a majority of at least 50% in the last few elections.

[ApatheticAustrian]

contract is crazy


https://twitter.com/Claus_Pandi/status/810576622780841984/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw


they promise to share information about austrian politics, bilateral and international relationships,  creation of party structures, youth policy and....."areas of mutual interest"..whatever that means.

[ApatheticAustrian]

besides the liberal standard the socialconservative boulevard monolith Kronenzeitung not only broke the story but frames it as a question of twisted allegiances.

[ApatheticAustrian]

the western SPÖ is just finished.....

[ApatheticAustrian]

  So have the former SPO voters gone both to the FPO and the Greens?

 in salzburg many of them are now ÖVP voters, strange as that may sound.

[ApatheticAustrian]

fpö city.....which voted for van der bellen.

kind of a backlash, i guess.

those poll numbers are "more or less" decent for the coalition compared to the average of the last year....

[ApatheticAustrian]

strange game.......kurz is against the russia sanctions but seemingly wants to support ukraine.....

[ApatheticAustrian]

which initiative should moscow have to give us anything on the table of diplomacy, if we plan to cut the santions anyway?

seems like a hollow gesture.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Bonus seats? Hahaha, that will almost certainly backfire.

it would maybe save the country on the long-run from eternal fpö- or "groko"-governments.

[ApatheticAustrian]

i support participation too.

the FPÖ needs to share responsibility .....

[ApatheticAustrian]

amazingly the liberal NEO party is going to overtake the conservative ÖVP in vienna soon...or so it seems.

[ApatheticAustrian]

end of the world as we know it.

this is like the arab spring for austria.

[ApatheticAustrian]

imho pröll wanted to leave the office anyway......this case of a smoking gun just accelerated the speed of the switch.

no one would dare to prosecute emperor erwin.....and i am pretty sure why secretary of the interior, mister sobatka, rejected any thoughts about becoming governor himself recently......why would he want to go anywhere close to this pile of smoking ....cookies....anyway? he was responsible for the financial situation of lower austria in the past and knows perfectly what for traps are waiting to spring over there. compared to that carinthia could become a minor problem.

[ApatheticAustrian]

how would kurz ever be able to become chancellor?

3 ways.....one more stupid than the next.

1) make the ÖVP either the strongest party (no chance in hell) or the strongest party inside of a coalition....even if we exclude the FPÖ, without CRUSHING the spö and creating a 3 or 4 party coalition or a minority coalition, this is nearly impossible.

2) trying to dominate the SPÖ like it happened in styria and blackmail them...either they give the chancellor to the ÖVP and play nice, even if they get more votes, or the next FPÖ-ÖVP coalition becomes reality. seems really stupid, imho. on the one hand, the SPÖ was full of rage after the ÖVP pulled the prototype of this stunt in styria and since then the voices in favor of a SPÖ- FPÖ coalition became even louder. do something like that and there is a good chance, the SPÖ either dares kurz to enter a coalition with the FPÖ or asks its own voters to agree to their own FPÖ-SPÖ coalition.....not very problable imho.

3) we are repeating the happy year of 1999 and the FPÖ is able to enter the coalition through giving the chancellor title to the weaker party, the ÖVP. Just a few fast thoughts: Why should the FPÖ, MUUUUCH stronger than in 1999, ever agree to that coalition? in fact, this coalition nearly killed the FPÖ on the national level, was a year-long disaster and totally not worth giving away all this power. strache was an active politican during that time and even promised he would never ever repeat those mistakes.....repeating this stupidty would not only break those promises without any good reason it would also not giving the FPÖ anything it couldn't win on its own.

imho there is just no way in hell for chancellor kurz....wrong time, wrong country, wrong party. he could become a powerbroker for years to come and a really important vice chancellor/statesman, etc.... but claiming the top spot just won't happen.

[ApatheticAustrian]

they are so established and strong over here that they never fear for any kind of backlash.

and it won't cost them any votes they would get otherwise....the FPÖ is a known metric and its content isn't veiled.

[ApatheticAustrian]

If I could Vote, in certain Circumstances (like 2015) I would maybe give my Vote to them (for the simple reason that I value Immigration and National Identity more than other currently popular topics, even though I am also a Migrant in Austria). But they always make these retarded decisions that in the end make me think that they could very well be a Joke.

nothing wrong with voting for them in general - also nothing wrong with voting for them as a migrant.

even the FPÖ himselves splits foreigners in good ones and bad ones, only the definition changes every few years.

in the past this was about skin colour, now it's about religion...Dr. Jörg Haider has had maaaaaaaaaany friends from the balcan region. ^^

one should just know what to expect from them - as you seemingly do.

[ApatheticAustrian]

would be quite lower austria-ish if the general right gets an absolute majority inside of an austrian "mega city".

[ApatheticAustrian]

regarding this alternatives, the ÖVP proposal flies quite high.

[ApatheticAustrian]

that numbers would be quite...strange.

even a 3-4 point difference would be quite successful for the SPÖ....

[ApatheticAustrian]

  So what are the main hang ups in the coalition causing the problems?

- show effect

- schelling and kern both trying their masculinity act

- mitterlehner's weakness