Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15

[Tender Branson]

The old thread got too big, so it's time for the third edition of the popular series "Austrian Elections and Politics" ...

Next events:

Jan. 26, 2017: Swearing in of President-elect Alexander Van der Bellen (Greens, or Indy)

Feb. 5, 2017: Graz city council election

(...)

Oct. 1, 2017: Burgenland municipal elections

Oct. 15, 2017: early Parliamentary Election

[Tender Branson]

Currently, the top federal ÖVP-leadership (Mitterlehner/Amon) is against a coalition with the FPÖ:

http://derstandard.at/2000049135331/OeVP-Fuehrung-gegen-Koalition-mit-EU-kritischer-FPOe

They say that if the FPÖ does not abandon their anti-EU talk and policies, there's no chance that the ÖVP will enter a coalition with them after the next federal elections ...

Of course, the ÖVP can change over the next months or 1.5 years and elect Sebastian Kurz as their new leader and together with Pühringer, Lopatka etc. the voices for a ÖVP/FPÖ or FPÖVP coalition could grow again within the party ...

[Tender Branson]

What's next for the Austrian Greens - after "their" candidate VdB won the Presidency ?

Green leader Eva Glawischnig said today in Austria's version of "Meet the Press" that the Greens will not move to the "populist left", but rather follow VdB's campaign example and broaden their base by appearing more centrist and trying to reach more rural women and younger/middle-class people while staying true to their policies on the EU, environment, labour, migration etc.

http://derstandard.at/2000049137120/Glawischnig-fuer-linkspopulistischen-Kurs-der-Gruenen-nicht-zu-haben

[Tender Branson]

Back to the presidential elections, the challenge of may results had a bad public opinion impact? and so a swing to votes from Hofer to VdB?

No, the overturning itself was popular with the voters (because people knew that the election system could need an "update").

But at the same time, voters like to punish the party/candidate that calls for new elections.

The defeat of Hofer had 100s of reasons though (look at the comments on election day on the other thread).

[Tender Branson]

The ORF's "Citizen Forum" will start in 10 minutes.

This is a townhall debate of all 6 party leaders (Kern, Mitterlehner, Strache, Glawischnig, Strolz and Lugar), who are taking questions from an audience of around 300 citizens about policies that matter to them and the party leaders explaining what they will do to tackle these issues next year ...

You can watch it here:

http://tvthek.orf.at/live/Buergerforum-Oesterreich-auf-dem-Pruefstand-Wie-geht-es-weiter/13894448

[Tender Branson]

   So with the Graz city council election coming up, what trends should we be looking for?  If the FPO is Austria's strongest party now, what type of performance should they be looking for in Graz?   Whats the current administration like now, and would a big FPO win change the city government?

Municipal elections always have their own dynamics and the FPÖ always does much worse when compared with federal elections. I doubt they will get more than 25% in Graz, also because the Nagl-ÖVP is quite strong. The SPÖ is extremely weak and the KPÖ really strong. The Greens have a new leader there so they might not improve much.

I guess the results will not have much of an impact on federal politics.

[Tender Branson]

BTW:

The Presidential result was certified and made official yesterday.

Certificate

Results:

http://wahl16.bmi.gv.at

The result can now be challenged at the Constitutional Court until next Thursday (midnight).

[Tender Branson]

Lugar?

chief of team stronach, frank stronach's zombie-like fringe-right-party.

This "Robert Lugar" was interviewed on the ORF today for an hour and said that the "Team Stronach" will definitely run again in the next federal election, but under a different name. That's because Frank Stronach will pull out of politics soon and abandon his party and take the name rights with him.

Obviously, the newly-named team has no chances to enter parliament again. They don't even know the future name yet. Lugar mentioned something like "Team for Austria", because they cannot use the name "Team Austria" - which is already used for a group of volunteers after natural disasters ...

[Tender Branson]

Does Griss have any political plans for the future btw?

Only she knows.

Griss wasn't really in the news lately, other than endorsing VdB together with ex-President Fischer in a press conference and calling for unity and a return to pragmatic centrist policies after his victory.

I see it as likely though that she could agree to be the frontrunner for NEOS in the coming federal elections. NEOS fits her worldview well and she'd win over quite a lot of ÖVP-voters and some disappointed SPÖ, Green and FPÖ-voters too. That would expand NEOS' share to about 10-12% in the federal election.

If she runs for NEOS and the ÖVP installs Kurz as their leader before the election, it is likely that Kurz will run a sharp campaign himself, trying to win over centrist voters and some FPÖ-voters.

My prediction for such a scenario (changes compared with current polling):

27% FPÖ (-7)
25% SPÖ (-1)
23% ÖVP (+5)
12% Greens (-1)
11% NEOS (+4)
  2% Others

In a Kern-Kurz-Griss scenario, these rather popular politicians from the "outside" would shape the campaign and overshadow the polarizing, tough-speaking Strache. They could actually appeal to many centrist protest voters who would otherwise vote FPÖ. I generally think the FPÖ is overpolling lately and would perform much worse than what current polling shows right now ...

I for one would seriously consider voting for the Griss-led NEOS, depending on what her campaign looks like.

[Tender Branson]

Is a SPÖ-NEOS-Green possible in the future?

Maybe, but if you look at my prediction they could have no majority.

A Griss-entry either with her own party or as NEOS frontrunner would definitely shake things up and enable more coalition options.

[Tender Branson]

Kern, Kurz and Griss running would be a real blessing for Austria to contain the FPÖ, in my opinion:

* I think the FPÖ is a bloated beast right now and tends to overpoll lately, as we have seen in Vienna last year and the two presidential runoffs. Of course, the presidential runoffs were very candidate-based and Hofer ran an outstanding personal, centrist campaign for a far-right winger - getting close to 50% twice. A record for the FPÖ so far. But with attack dog Strache back as their main candidate for the federal elections and fierce competition from popular Kurz and Griss, their success could be over again. Strache with his rants (and contrary to Hofer's modest talk) is good at bringing out the FPÖ's base (20-25%), but nothing beyond that. Considering this, Hofer's results were amazing from the FPÖ's point-of-view. Especially with every other party campaigning against them. Griss would do very well in the wealthier Vienna districts, suburbs and Vorarlberg - while Kurz would win over the rural, more conservative and nationalist minded folk who voted for Hofer in the two runoffs. The Greens would also do very well in the urban and suburban areas, while Kern would keep many teachers, social workers and even many blue-collar workers in his fold. This would not leave a lot of air left for the FPÖ and instead of the 34% now, they might end up with just about 25% or slightly higher in the end ... *hopefully*

[Tender Branson]

Yeah, the FPÖ's addiction to Russia and Putin is pissing off a lot of Austrians (also FPÖ-voters) ...

[Tender Branson]

btw....live from moscow:

Hilarious picture.

"Education trip to Moscow: How to properly rig future elections (so we can win again)."

Thank Goodness we don't have electronic voting machines ...

[Tender Branson]

New "Market" poll for the "Standard" newspaper (Dec. 13-15):

31% FPÖ
25% SPÖ
22% ÖVP
12% Greens
  6% NEOS
  4% Others

"On December 4, the new President of Austria was elected. How satisfied are you with the results ?"

53% Very/Somewhat satisfied (29 very, 24 somewhat)
41% Very/Somewhat unsatisfied (26 very, 15 somewhat)

100% of Green voters are satisfied with the results, 90% of FPÖ voters are not.

About 8 in 10 SPÖ voters are satisfied with the results, as are about 7 in 10 ÖVP voters.

http://derstandard.at/2000049506772/Van-der-Bellens-Sieg-nuetzte-den-Gruenen-bisher-nicht

[Tender Branson]

Norbert Hofer's 25 minute interview (in English) on Russia Today, if anyone is interested:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=18WDDpw4L9E

[Tender Branson]

All Austrian parties today strongly attacked the FPÖ's trip to Russia, especially considering Russia's current scorched earth campaign in Aleppo in support of Assad.

Turns out the FPÖ delegation even signed a "working contract" with Putin's United Russia party !

http://derstandard.at/2000049541332/Blaue-Moskau-Reise-fuer-Mitterlehner-grob-daneben

http://derstandard.at/2000049543544-1528/Niedermuehlbichler-ueber-FPOe-Ein-bissl-an-KGB-erinnert-das-schon

http://derstandard.at/2000049497726/FPOe-fuehrt-mysterioese-Arbeitsgespraeche-in-Moskau

[Tender Branson]

Hopefully the media will report heavily on the FPÖ's continued filthy boot-licking of Putin.

And hopefully many Austrians and some FPÖ-voters will turn away in disgust ...

[Tender Branson]

A couple more maps from the Presidential runoff on December 4:

(right-click for better resolution)

VdB strength by town:



Hofer strength by town:



VdB strength by district:



Hofer strength by district:



Towns that changed between the May runoff and the December runoff:



Districts that changed between the May runoff and the December runoff:



Vienna, by precinct (December runoff, left vs. May runoff, right)



Vienna, VdB strength by precinct (December runoff, left vs. May runoff, right)



Vienna, Hofer strength by precinct (December runoff, left vs. May runoff, right)

[Tender Branson]

btw....live from moscow:




FPÖ-EU leader and self-tazing idiot Vilimsky, FPÖ chief Strache, presidential candidate Hofer and Strache's successor (in Vienna and maybe also on a national level) Gudenus.

LOL, from the Austrian satirical newspaper "Tagespresse":

"Four men on vacation without women: Russia arrests FPÖ-delegation on suspicion of homosexuality."

http://dietagespresse.com/vier-maenner-ohne-frauen-auf-urlaub-russland-inhaftiert-fpoe-spitze-wegen-homosexuellenverdachts

[Tender Branson]

New Tyrol state election (-> 2018) poll:

41% ÖVP (+2 compared with 2013)
21% FPÖ (+12)
14% Greens (+1)
14% SPÖ (n.c.)
  4% NEOS (+4)
  4% FRITZ (-2)
  2% Others (-17)

http://www.krone.at/tirol/vp-und-gruene-liegen-bei-55-prozent-fpoe-verdoppelt-ifap-umfrage-story-545190

The current state government is ÖVP-Greens.

[Tender Branson]

New Salzburg state election (-> 2018) poll:

38% ÖVP (+9 compared with 2013)
21% FPÖ (+4)
19% Greens (-1)
12% SPÖ (-12)
  4% FPS (+4)
  4% SBG (+4)
  2% NEOS (+2)
  0% Others (-10)

http://www.meinbezirk.at/salzburg-stadt/politik/oevp-und-gruene-kommen-in-sonntagsfrage-auf-satte-mehrheit-d1967157.html

The current state government is ÖVP-Greens-SBG.

[Tender Branson]

the western SPÖ is just finished.....

Yepp.

The fall of the Salzburg-SPÖ is especially dramatic:

2004 state election: 45%
2009 state election: 39%
2013 state election: 24%
Todays GMK/BB poll: 12%

[Tender Branson]

  So have the former SPO voters gone both to the FPO and the Greens?

 in salzburg many of them are now ÖVP voters, strange as that may sound.

Some, but not all too many.

Many former SPÖ-voters went to the Greens, who went from around 8% to around 19-20% now.

Many also went to the FPÖ, which went from 15% around 12 years ago to about 25% now (combining the 2 FPÖs in the state right now).

Some others have gone to NEOS and SBG (ex-Team Stronach).

That only leaves a tiny part going to the ÖVP, which is largely stable at 38% (which is what they got in 2004 and 2009).

But yeah, the financial/investment scandal in Salzburg in 2011/12 and the departure of Gov. Gabriele Burgstaller really did the SPÖ in.

Meanwhile, after all the financial trouble 5 years ago - Salzburg's finances are back in order:

The ÖVP-Green government recently passed the 2017 and 2018 budgets, with no deficits for both years.

Also, the debt level (which ballooned because of the investment scandal) is now down 300 million from the peak in 2012 and will fall another 100 million until the end of 2017, to around 1.9 billion €.

[Tender Branson]

The Presidential runoff from December 4 will be totally official today at midnight, if no person challenges the results at the Constitutional Court.

So far, nobody has ...

[Tender Branson]

The Presidential runoff from December 4 will be totally official today at midnight, if no person challenges the results at the Constitutional Court.

So far, nobody has ...

The midnight deadline has passed, nobody has filed a challenge and Alexander Van der Bellen is now officially the President-elect.

He will be sworn in on January 26, 2017 at 10am - in a joint session of both chambers of Parliament. Sonja Ledl-Rossmann (ÖVP) will administer VdB's oath of office.

http://derstandard.at/2000049765689/Es-ist-fix-Van-der-Bellen-ist-gewaehlter-Bundespraesident