Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15

[rob in cal]

   So with the Graz city council election coming up, what trends should we be looking for?  If the FPO is Austria's strongest party now, what type of performance should they be looking for in Graz?   Whats the current administration like now, and would a big FPO win change the city government?

[rob in cal]

  So have the former SPO voters gone both to the FPO and the Greens?

[rob in cal]

   Minus immigration would probably be part of creating a "repatriation culture" that I believe Strache has talked about.  Perhaps part of any government with the FPO in it would include a ministry of repatriation which would hand out bonus, or create incentives for immigrants to return to their home country.

[rob in cal]

  So what are the main hang ups in the coalition causing the problems?

[rob in cal]

  Tender, I was actually thinking about the marriage analogy as well.  Sounds pretty dysfunctional. Perhaps for that reason most Austrians won't be too upset about going to the polls again so soon after the Pres election.
   It will be interesting to see if Kurz takes on a big role soon if elections are coming up. He seems like someone who could win votes for the OVP from both FPO and SPO.

[rob in cal]

   Tender, in a FPO/SPO coalition, how would differences in migration policy be worked out?  I would think that the price for FPO participation would be pretty high on that issue, with FPO wanting a pretty low overall quota.  Would enough of the SPO agree to that? Perhaps such a coalition might see splits in both parties?

[rob in cal]

  If I read Der Standard's article correctly the sides are differing on the migrant question, with OVP wanting the 17,500 upper limit, and the SPO instead wanting to focus on concrete measures to encourage people to return, such as higher return bonus, and foreign aid to countries that cooperate with accepting their citizens back.  I like both ideas.
   

[rob in cal]

  So it looks like there was no agreement to reduce the upper limit quota of migrants to 17,500.  Does this meant that the previous target is still in force?

[rob in cal]

   It will be interesting to see if these measures discouraging asylum/non-EU migrants will create a lot of protests, and maybe some SPO internal conflict.

[rob in cal]

   In the new coalition agreement there was a chart about some modest changes to Austria's income tax law, with basically the taxable earning amounts going up with inflation.  I noticed that right after the first 11,000 (now going up to 11,500)euros which is income tax free, the next 8,000 euros are taxed at 25%, and then the next tax band after that is 35%.  So a lot of income earned by middle class Austrians would get taxed at those two rates.
     Has there been much discussion among the political parties about lowering these rates, or changing the amount earned that triggers these rates?

[rob in cal]

   The support level for the minimum wage increase and immigration reduction measures is interesting as it is so high. If this was a FPO-OVP government doing the exact same thing I wonder if the overall support would be much lower, and if there would be mass protests against it.

[rob in cal]

   So Mayor Nagl's fear of a KPO, SPO, Green majority didn't come to pass.  Is the mayor elected by the city council? And would a KPO,SPO, Green majority have worked together to elect a new mayor if they had won a majority?

[rob in cal]

  Tender, very nice to see you are now influencing Austrian polling. The numbers with Kurz are even stronger than I would have thought, with him getting more SPO support than I would have thought, and a little less from the FPO than I would have thought.

[rob in cal]

  Tender, do we have a breakdown of the citizenship of the non-Austrian parents?  Also, interesting to see the illegitimacy birth % by region, with Carinthia on the high side, and Vienna on the low side.

[rob in cal]

    Tender, interesting to see that on the issue of more refugees/migrants the SPO and FPO voters were the most against, with OVP voters a little bit closer to the Greens than the SPO. I'd love to see a further breakdown among SPO and OVP voters by social class, education level etc and their stance on the issue.

[rob in cal]

   As a professional pizza (among other food) delivery driver I was intrigued to see the Chancellor in action.  I'd like to have seen more details on the video.  Were most of the orders in that one apartment complex?  Looks like he helped make the pizzas as well.  Also, he mentions that he did well with tips, wonder how big they were.  Also, looks like the restaurant didn't cut the pizzas, but rather leaves that up to the customer.  We cut ours, 6 slices for a small, 8 for a medium, 10 for a large, 12 for an extra large.

[rob in cal]

  Tender, that Vienna poll is amazing.  It implies that the SPO would do better outside of Vienna than in the city itself, if you look at the nationwide polls.  Also implies that lots of ex-SPO voters are going to FPO not the other parties.  Does this make sense for a city like Vienna?

[rob in cal]

  Maybe there could be some political/financial bribe/offer to get the independents to vote for early elections? 

[rob in cal]

  If Kern's idea goes through, then maybe OVP-FPO will get used to cooperating in parliament now and then keep it up after the next election whenever that is.

[rob in cal]

  Tender, that's interesting about a Leftist alliance.  The big danger with it might be that it does get significant support because it would look like it could get past the 4% threshold, and then gets just under the 4%, so then a big chunk of the left wing electorate has wasted its vote.

[rob in cal]

  I could see how some in the FPO would take a pro Paris accord position.  In terms of overall environmental impact immigration into modern first world economies helps grow those economies even more, with more building, more people in general, more fossil fuel use etc. So a FPO supporter could follow through on their low immigration idea with its counterpart of supporting the environmental benefits of low immigration on the environment as well.

[rob in cal]

  Tender, do you think a OVP-FPO coalition would have a specific migrant quota target? If so it would have to be pretty low, for the FPO to show its voters that going into coalition had accomplished something on the issue.

[rob in cal]

  One possible long term effect of a FPO-SPO coalition might be its effects in other European countries.  If a Social Democratic party in one country could make a coalition with a Right-Populist party, why not elsewhere?  It might serve as a sort of test model for elsewhere, and would go a long way toward making right populist parties more acceptable, and also settle down the anti-fa type protestors.
    If it leads to the SPO going to the right on immigration and gaining working class voters as a result, that too might be a model for those parties on the left that still want to be rooted in the working class.
   Seem to me the FPO would have to be gaining something special from the SPO for them to want to do this however, instead of working with the OVP which probably would make more sense on a lot of issues for them.

[rob in cal]

  Also isn't the fact that Kurz is fairly close to the FPO on its signature issue of migration a big reason for FPO voters going to OVP.  So in a way that's a FPO victory, not for the party itself, but for actually accomplishing something meaningful in that other parties might be starting to adopt some of its policies.

[rob in cal]

   I think that Greens poster is the whole point of why the Kurz OVP is doing so well, he is keeping OVP voters plus attracting some FPO voters by coming closer to the FPO on the migration issue, and all if it done in a nice shiny youthful package.