How Popular Will All The New Governors Be?

[Free Bird]

Predict.

Justice: Reasonably popular. I could see him being hugely beloved, though.

Sununu: New Hampshire loves their politicians, unless they screw up bigly i.e. Benson or Guinta. He'll be pretty popular; can have a Senate seat any time he wants tbh.

Scott: See Jim Douglas

Carney: Won't really do much, so he'll have those weird low 50's ratings because it's a Democratic states.

Greitens: I can see him either being really really beloved or absolutely despised. No in between.

Cooper: I think he'll be mid 40's. This isn't good, since North Carolina is notoriously fickle with their statewide politicians unless your name is Jesse or Richard.

Burgum: I can really see him being the new John Hoeven. Maybe that's just me.

Holcomb: I don't know. Gut instinct tells me he's going to fall into Pence, and not Daniels, territory. Hey Evan! If you want to still make that comeback, just wait 4 years.

[coloradocowboi]

Cooper: I think he'll be mid 40's. This isn't good, since North Carolina is notoriously fickle with their statewide politicians unless your name is Jesse or Richard.

Jesse Helms never won with more than 10% of the vote. Mike Easley has a better batting avg. And Richard Burr only won by 6 to a weak opponent this year. I don't think any of what you said is founded.

We won't know how popular Cooper will be until we see how his constant battles against the NCGA play out. But given the fact that his approvals are already way higher than theirs, and they are obsessed with trans people and protecting Duke Energy instead of helping folks, I don't see how they win the PR battle.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I dunno, but suspect the most despised will be a Republican, as is usually the case.

[tmthforu94]

I see Greitens as being pretty divisive, more in the mold of Rick Scott / Scott Walker. North Carolina seems to be pretty polarized now, so I don't see Cooper having very high favorables. I think Holcomb will be more in the mold of Daniels and focus more on economic issues, not social issues, which is what plagued Pence.

[jamestroll]

Justice: Going to be popular enough to be re-elected I would think.

Sununu: I do not think he will be popular.

Scott: Should be fine.

Carney: Who?

Greitens: Could be very good or very bad. I know Democrats will do everything they can do defeat him in 2020. Hopefully he is a failure.

Cooper: Won a very close election against unpopular incumbent. Needs to watch himself in 2020 for sure. But for all we know, he could landslide.

Burgum: Who?

Holcomb: Probably decent to so-so. If Trump implodes this could be a dem pick up in 2020 after lengthy GOP control of state house. Who knows.

[Maxwell]

Justice: Will probably publicize some early wins, enough for fairly high approval ratings and re-election.

Sununu: eh, probably not, especially if he pushes a very right-wing agenda (where the state legislature might force his hand)

Scott: oh probably very very popular

Carney: he'll be fine, I suspect

Greitens: Oh god this is going to be bad.

Cooper: This is also going to be very tough

Burgum: Not a chance he ever loses - but I'm surprised a state like North Dakota went for MUH MICROSOFT guy.

Holcomb: See Mike Pence - poor approvals but not enough to matter.

[Xing]

Justice will be somewhat popular.

Sununu will probably have mediocre popularity ratings.

Scott will be fairly popular, provided he actually governs like a moderate.

Carney will be decently well-liked.

Greitens will be despised, at least I think so.

Cooper will be very polarizing. Not sure where things will go.

Burgum will be popular, and won't have any problems.

Holcomb will be moderately unpopular.

[Bismarck]

Haha you all think Holcomb is a Pence clone but he is pretty moderate. He will govern like a less ambitious Daniels and he fairly popular.

[Cynthia]

Justice: high 60s

Sununu: high 40s

Scott: high 60s

Greitens: 30s

Cooper: high 40s

Burgum: 70s if not 80s

Holcomb: low 60s--he's probably Daniels than Pence

[libertpaulian]

Evan Bayh won't be the Democrat to reclaim the Governor's Mansion in Indiana.  It will either be Joe Hogsett or Pete Buttigieg.

[Free Bird]

Why the Sununu skepticism? Are you salty it was a pickup or something? I mean besides TN who needs to keep his narrative going, disagreement with policy or saltiness is the only reason I can think of.

[Figueira]

Why the Sununu skepticism? Are you salty it was a pickup or something? I mean besides TN who needs to keep his narrative going, disagreement with policy or saltiness is the only reason I can think of.

New Hampshirites have a habit of voting out Republican incumbents recently.

[Virginiá]

Why the Sununu skepticism? Are you salty it was a pickup or something? I mean besides TN who needs to keep his narrative going, disagreement with policy or saltiness is the only reason I can think of.

Not that I necessarily think he's doomed, but I think there is potential for unpopularity on numerous fronts if played right by Democrats. Given that seemingly his first goal before even taking office was to make it harder to vote by removing a convenient registration service that has been in place for literally a generation and replacing it with visits to the DMV to vote, which even nationwide is not known for its efficiency, would look pretty bad and kind of incompetent.

Plus, he's a Republican in a Democratic-trending state that has had a Democrat-controlled govs office for mostly decades. Chances are that the conservative policy that will inevitably pour out from a unified state govt won't be the most popular.

But, I dunno, maybe he will turn out popular. We'll see. If Trump has a bad first couple years at least, it'll still be rough for him in 2018 though.

[Free Bird]

I'll address concerns here.

The voting thing is about closing a loophole. Under the current system, some person from Cambridge could come in, stay at a Comfort Inn for a night, and mark that as their residency to vote. I think he'll find a way to make it so college kids, who the program is for, can still vote.

Second, NH is a candidate-based state. We see that with Benson being voted out the same year as Gregg being reelected by huge margins, or Ayotte being elected the same day as Lynch. She also would had won had it not been for Aaron Day.

Third, no, no he is not the most vulnerable governor going into 2018. That honor goes to Rauner and Malloy.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Why the Sununu skepticism? Are you salty it was a pickup or something? I mean besides TN who needs to keep his narrative going, disagreement with policy or saltiness is the only reason I can think of.

New Hampshirites have a habit of voting out Republican incumbents recently.

Maybe so, but it was usually in either strong D years nationally or a very unpopular incumbent.  Benson and Guinta primarily lost because of scandals, and Bass lost primarily because of the Democrat wave in 2012.  Ayotte had lukewarm job approval and lost by the barest of margins this year, so I would not be surprised at all if she comes back and wins Shaheen's seat in 2020.

It's important to remember also, that New Hampshire is usually MUCH more Republican in midterms than in presidential years.  2010 and 2014 are testament to that; in fact, Lynch and Hassan won reelection by much smaller margins than expected those years, and the GOP made big gains in the legislature and Congressional delegations.

Third, no, no he is not the most vulnerable governor going into 2018. That honor goes to Rauner and Malloy.

Rauner will probably hold on, as polls are showing that voters are blaming the budget gridlock on Mike Madigan by a wide margin.  Based on that, I say he probably wins the same way Truman did, or the way Granholm did here in Michigan.  Granholm won reelection in 2006 because voters blamed Bush for Michigan's bad economy more than her, and she played that to her advantage.  (As for Malloy, I suspect he won't run again.)

Given that GOP governors are almost always more despised than Democrat ones, I could see a scenario where Sununu isn't well liked.  But he comes from a respected political family and doesn't seem like much of an ideologue, so he should be fine.  Even so, Phil Scott will probably be more popular.

[MT Treasurer]

Is NH really more Republican in midterm years? Look at how badly Republicans did in 2014. These White middle aged female voters who vote like 65% D in every election ("Clinton women") tend to turn out in midterm years as well.

[Heisenberg]

Is NH really more Republican in midterm years? Look at how badly Republicans did in 2014. These White middle aged female voters who vote like 65% D in every election ("Clinton women") tend to turn out in midterm years as well.

How would Charlie Bass have done if he ran instead of Brown? He would have been the strongest GOP candidate, but he may have only gotten 0.5% more if that.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

In 1 years time
 
approve/disapprove/no opinion

Justice: 55-39-6

Sununu: 50-44-6

Scott: 59-37-4

Carney: 54-43-3

Greitens: 43-49-8

Cooper:45-47-8

Burgum: 60-36-4

Holcomb: 53-44-3

[hopper]

People are writing Greitens death sentence for 2020 already on these threads.