Metro Atlanta

[ag]

So, I mentioned this on another thread, but this is, indeed, something pretty striking. We all have known even before the election that Georgia was closer than usual. But when one looks at the county data, what is striking is  how much the Dem gains are concentrated in metro Atlanta and nearby - Clinton, actually, did worse than Obama in the rest of the state. But in Atlanta, its suburbs, exurbs, Dem-dominated, GOP-dominated, whatever - she reigned.

Just looking at the counties with 125 thousand or more residents on the 2015 estimate, there is a contiguous block that all swung to Clinton in 2015 (a few smaller counties on the edge of the block did as well). Here is the list (in decreasing population order):

Fulton County Obama +30 to Clinton + 41 (+11-point swing to Clinton)
Gwinnett County Romney +9 to Clinton +6 (+15)
Cobb County Romney +12 to Clinton +2 (+14)
DeKalb County Obama +57 to Clinton +63 (+6)
Clayton County Obama + 55 to Clinton +56 (+1)
Cherokee County Romney +58 to Trump +49 (+9)
Henry County Romney + 3 to Clinton +4 (+7)
Forsyth County Romney + 63 to Trump +47 (+16)
Hall County Romney +56, Trump +50 (+6)
Paulding County Romney +43, Clinton +41 (+2)
Douglas County Obama +4, Clinton +11 (+7)
Coweta County Romney +44, Trump +42 (+2)

Notice, that the big swings are not in any sense concentrated in similar counties: it is across the board.

[ajc0918]

This echoes the trend nationally that large urban areas are continuing to shift to Democrats. It may have been more dramatic in Georgia, but across the country we saw urban counties, particularly ones with high minority populations, move towards the Democrats.

How this plays out in the future is hard to tell, but if you look at the trend in metro Atlanta since 2000 you can see a pretty consistent shift in the suburbs.

[ag]

This echoes the trend nationally that large urban areas are continuing to shift to Democrats. It may have been more dramatic in Georgia, but across the country we saw urban counties, particularly ones with high minority populations, move towards the Democrats.

How this plays out in the future is hard to tell, but if you look at the trend in metro Atlanta since 2000 you can see a pretty consistent shift in the suburbs.

This is different. You have a bunch of very suburban, or even exurban, counties, some overwhelmingly white and Republican, experiencing shifts of similar magnitude.