Will the Democratic Left be in a Stronger Position in 2020?

[GoTfan]

Basically what the title says. I know I keep droning on about this, but Bernie built a pretty sizable movement, and the Left seems to have been revitalised. Moreover, he seems to have inspired an entirely new generation of progressives.

What do you think? I say yes.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

I don't know, depends what Trump does in office

[Pericles]

Absolutely, the party establishment will be discredited after supposedly 'rigging' the 2016 contest and then losing the election, and it could well be many Democrats feel the establishment isn't fighting Trump hard enough. The cracks are already showing in the Democratic Party and there could well be a populist insurgency there just as there was in the Republican Party.

[Hindsight was 2020]

It will be interesting if a wave of self funded rich Dems like John Morgan or JB Pritzker start becoming a thing like Mark Cuban running for TX gov in 2018

[Make My Bank Account Great Again]

It'll be considerably stronger.

1. Media trust is at an all time low. "New media" online outlets are now filling this void. The Right has Breitbart and infowars to fill this void. Outlets such as TYT, Secular Talk, Jimmy Dore, etc. will accomplish this on the Left. This will increase polarization of the Left these next 4 years. Prepare for a democratic electorate in 2020 that's increasingly getting its news from a more left wing perspective.

2. The Tea Party was fueled, in large part, to general opposition to Obama's policies and presidency. Here's the opposition to an incoming Obama administration compared to Trump's incoming administration:
http://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2016/11/18172351/0_4.png
Yup you read that right, opposition to Trump from the Left is nearly double the size (65%) that Obama's opposition from the republicans was at this same time (36%). A Left movement is there for the making. The main opposition to Trump will be from Warren and Sanders in the senate. They will lead this movement in many ways.

3. For the first time in 8 years, more democrats think the Party should move leftward instead of moderating: http://www.people-press.org/2016/11/21/prospects-for-bipartisan-cooperation-ideological-direction-of-the-parties/2_4c/
 
4. The DNC leaks and their actions towards Bernie and his supporters will also cause a backlash that, combined with the above points, will go well into 2020 and beyond.

5. Millennials and younger voters were much more likely to support Senator Sanders. This is likely where the future of the Democratic Party is headed.

6. Trump's candidacy proves that populism wins. It proves that being e generic politician and running to the middle in the general election doesn't mean jack. Why can't Democratic socialists win if a billionaire reality tv star can? Prepare to see other celebrities and high profile billionaires try and run for political offices with a strong left wing populist message.

There are two major caveats to this though. One, how does a Left wing or "Green" Tea Party movement get big money donors? They'd have to rely primarily on funds from smaller organizations and working/middle class people, college students, (unions is a good possibility), etc. The Tea Party didn't have this issue since they were more than willing to accept money from big money donors.

This one is huge though: the democratic establishment will do everything they can to tame this movement for their own liking. Look at the immediate character assassination towards Keith Ellison for being supposedly anti-Semitic. Same exact thing happened to Corbyn when he became head of the Labour Party in Britain. They don't want a Democratic Party that appears hostile to the desires of big money donors. Those same big money donors will dry up funding to the Party if the democrats go in this direction and allow it to happen. The Democratic Party will push hard for a Cory Booker type candidate in 2020 and will huge amounts of money to stop a Warren/Sanders like candidate for emerging. The Party will be splintered, especially if the Left doesn't get their candidate of choice.

This splintering, which looks to be damn near inevitable, is the reason why I think Trump will win reelection (not to mention his incumbency advantage, the fact that the GOP will likely have control of all three branches of government for the next 4 years which gives them leeway to fix any potential economic downturns without opposition, etc.) And if the democratic establishment fails to unseat Trump, especially if they lose with a Cory Booker type candidate, prepare for the Left to be even stronger in 2024.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Seriously what is it with you hardcore Feelthebern guys hating on Booker so much

[Make My Bank Account Great Again]

Seriously what is it with you hardcore Feelthebern guys hating on Booker so much

He'll have the same issues that Hillary had in 2016. Too close to Wall Street and the financial sector, too centrist, etc.

Sanders wing will eat him alive.

[Blair]

As someone who dislikes Booker for his general ickyness (he's too much of a politician from central casting) apart from Wall Street he's pretty much firmly in the progressive wing of the party

[Famous Mortimer]

Worse. They have no candidate. Most of the grassroots people have crazy views and will either turn on any sane candidate for not kowtowing to them or else force them to take unelectable positions.

[GlobeSoc]

As someone who dislikes Booker for his general ickyness (he's too much of a politician from central casting) apart from Wall Street he's pretty much firmly in the progressive wing of the party

lol

[Make My Bank Account Great Again]

Worse. They have no candidate. Most of the grassroots people have crazy views and will either turn on any sane candidate for not kowtowing to them or else force them to take unelectable positions.

Grayson, Warren and Sanders are three options.

There's no perfect candidate for them, but they'll find somebody to cling to. I mean Sanders was a completely unknown candidate this time around. A 103 year old socialist Jewish (possibly atheist) senator with zero name recognition from a small rural state managed to gain traction. He won 22 states against the behemoth and celebrity of Hillary Clinton. She had every possible advantage over him and he still gave it a great run.

The 2020 primaries are gonna get wild. An increasingly liberal electorate with no establishment candidate with Hillary's name recognition or credentials to push back will make it much more interesting.

[TDAS04]

I would think so.  Someone like Trump in the White House should be a strong motivator for the left.

[Mr. Smith]

Yes.

For all the listed reasons, I wouldn't even count out a Senate takeover in 2018 [with Indiana and Montana playing out as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin did].

@Morty: And just what was the Tea Party rise then but what you described, except rightward.

[Famous Mortimer]

Yes.

For all the listed reasons, I wouldn't even count out a Senate takeover in 2018 [with Indiana and Montana playing out as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin did].

@Morty: And just what was the Tea Party rise then but what you described, except rightward.

The Tea Party flamed out. They won a few primaries in safe Republican districts but couldn't nominate a candidate for president. They did force the Republican nominee to move to the right and he lost as a result.

[Thunderbird is the word]

It'll be considerably stronger.

1. Media trust is at an all time low. "New media" online outlets are now filling this void. The Right has Breitbart and infowars to fill this void. Outlets such as TYT, Secular Talk, Jimmy Dore, etc. will accomplish this on the Left. This will increase polarization of the Left these next 4 years. Prepare for a democratic electorate in 2020 that's increasingly getting its news from a more left wing perspective.

2. The Tea Party was fueled, in large part, to general opposition to Obama's policies and presidency. Here's the opposition to an incoming Obama administration compared to Trump's incoming administration:
http://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2016/11/18172351/0_4.png
Yup you read that right, opposition to Trump from the Left is nearly double the size (65%) that Obama's opposition from the republicans was at this same time (36%). A Left movement is there for the making. The main opposition to Trump will be from Warren and Sanders in the senate. They will lead this movement in many ways.

3. For the first time in 8 years, more democrats think the Party should move leftward instead of moderating: http://www.people-press.org/2016/11/21/prospects-for-bipartisan-cooperation-ideological-direction-of-the-parties/2_4c/
 
4. The DNC leaks and their actions towards Bernie and his supporters will also cause a backlash that, combined with the above points, will go well into 2020 and beyond.

5. Millennials and younger voters were much more likely to support Senator Sanders. This is likely where the future of the Democratic Party is headed.

6. Trump's candidacy proves that populism wins. It proves that being e generic politician and running to the middle in the general election doesn't mean jack. Why can't Democratic socialists win if a billionaire reality tv star can? Prepare to see other celebrities and high profile billionaires try and run for political offices with a strong left wing populist message.

There are two major caveats to this though. One, how does a Left wing or "Green" Tea Party movement get big money donors? They'd have to rely primarily on funds from smaller organizations and working/middle class people, college students, (unions is a good possibility), etc. The Tea Party didn't have this issue since they were more than willing to accept money from big money donors.

This one is huge though: the democratic establishment will do everything they can to tame this movement for their own liking. Look at the immediate character assassination towards Keith Ellison for being supposedly anti-Semitic. Same exact thing happened to Corbyn when he became head of the Labour Party in Britain. They don't want a Democratic Party that appears hostile to the desires of big money donors. Those same big money donors will dry up funding to the Party if the democrats go in this direction and allow it to happen. The Democratic Party will push hard for a Cory Booker type candidate in 2020 and will huge amounts of money to stop a Warren/Sanders like candidate for emerging. The Party will be splintered, especially if the Left doesn't get their candidate of choice.

This splintering, which looks to be damn near inevitable, is the reason why I think Trump will win reelection (not to mention his incumbency advantage, the fact that the GOP will likely have control of all three branches of government for the next 4 years which gives them leeway to fix any potential economic downturns without opposition, etc.) And if the democratic establishment fails to unseat Trump, especially if they lose with a Cory Booker type candidate, prepare for the Left to be even stronger in 2024.

All of this!

[Cashew]

I remain hesitant to say it will be stronger. While they may seize control of the party that is the easy part. How the candidate plans to withstand Corbyn level hostility from the establishment media is the real problem. Unlike Republicans who fall in line no matter how immoral their candidate, character assassination may actually work to fracture the Democrats.

[Thunderbird is the word]

It'll be considerably stronger.

1. Media trust is at an all time low. "New media" online outlets are now filling this void. The Right has Breitbart and infowars to fill this void. Outlets such as TYT, Secular Talk, Jimmy Dore, etc. will accomplish this on the Left. This will increase polarization of the Left these next 4 years. Prepare for a democratic electorate in 2020 that's increasingly getting its news from a more left wing perspective.

2. The Tea Party was fueled, in large part, to general opposition to Obama's policies and presidency. Here's the opposition to an incoming Obama administration compared to Trump's incoming administration:
http://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2016/11/18172351/0_4.png
Yup you read that right, opposition to Trump from the Left is nearly double the size (65%) that Obama's opposition from the republicans was at this same time (36%). A Left movement is there for the making. The main opposition to Trump will be from Warren and Sanders in the senate. They will lead this movement in many ways.

3. For the first time in 8 years, more democrats think the Party should move leftward instead of moderating: http://www.people-press.org/2016/11/21/prospects-for-bipartisan-cooperation-ideological-direction-of-the-parties/2_4c/
 
4. The DNC leaks and their actions towards Bernie and his supporters will also cause a backlash that, combined with the above points, will go well into 2020 and beyond.

5. Millennials and younger voters were much more likely to support Senator Sanders. This is likely where the future of the Democratic Party is headed.

6. Trump's candidacy proves that populism wins. It proves that being e generic politician and running to the middle in the general election doesn't mean jack. Why can't Democratic socialists win if a billionaire reality tv star can? Prepare to see other celebrities and high profile billionaires try and run for political offices with a strong left wing populist message.

There are two major caveats to this though. One, how does a Left wing or "Green" Tea Party movement get big money donors? They'd have to rely primarily on funds from smaller organizations and working/middle class people, college students, (unions is a good possibility), etc. The Tea Party didn't have this issue since they were more than willing to accept money from big money donors.

This one is huge though: the democratic establishment will do everything they can to tame this movement for their own liking. Look at the immediate character assassination towards Keith Ellison for being supposedly anti-Semitic. Same exact thing happened to Corbyn when he became head of the Labour Party in Britain. They don't want a Democratic Party that appears hostile to the desires of big money donors. Those same big money donors will dry up funding to the Party if the democrats go in this direction and allow it to happen. The Democratic Party will push hard for a Cory Booker type candidate in 2020 and will huge amounts of money to stop a Warren/Sanders like candidate for emerging. The Party will be splintered, especially if the Left doesn't get their candidate of choice.

This splintering, which looks to be damn near inevitable, is the reason why I think Trump will win reelection (not to mention his incumbency advantage, the fact that the GOP will likely have control of all three branches of government for the next 4 years which gives them leeway to fix any potential economic downturns without opposition, etc.) And if the democratic establishment fails to unseat Trump, especially if they lose with a Cory Booker type candidate, prepare for the Left to be even stronger in 2024.

All of this!

I've sometimes thought that someone like Cory Booker who I think would lose to Trump by a wider margin then Hillary would almost be a reverse McGovern in that he'd be a lesson to the party in the future to never move too far to the center.

[Mr. Smith]

Yes.

For all the listed reasons, I wouldn't even count out a Senate takeover in 2018 [with Indiana and Montana playing out as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin did].

@Morty: And just what was the Tea Party rise then but what you described, except rightward.

The Tea Party flamed out. They won a few primaries in safe Republican districts but couldn't nominate a candidate for president. They did force the Republican nominee to move to the right and he lost as a result.

Really? So why'd those favorites from 2010 get re-elected then [you know like Ron Johnson] rather than, idk primaried by Trumper candidates? How is it Matt Bevin still became Governor of Kentucky? Or how about them midterms and how repealing Obamacare still being a thing then and now?