What would the 2016 election look like with 1980 demographics?
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  What would the 2016 election look like with 1980 demographics?
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Author Topic: What would the 2016 election look like with 1980 demographics?  (Read 1017 times)
DPKdebator
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« on: December 14, 2016, 07:31:17 PM »

How would the results of this year's election look if the demographics of the country were the same as it was in 1980, and every demographic voted the same way they did this year? I would infer that Trump would get a higher amount of EVs due to the proportionally higher white population.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #1 on: December 14, 2016, 08:06:14 PM »

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duh
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #2 on: December 14, 2016, 09:08:58 PM »



And Trump would definitely win the popular vote.
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RaphaelDLG
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« Reply #3 on: December 15, 2016, 04:32:53 PM »



And Trump would definitely win the popular vote.

Surprised that Maine ATL isn't blue
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« Reply #4 on: December 15, 2016, 04:41:28 PM »



And Trump would definitely win the popular vote.

Surprised that Maine ATL isn't blue

Maine couldn't really have been much more white than it is now in 1980.  The one I wonder about on this map is New Mexico.
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Computer89
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« Reply #5 on: December 15, 2016, 04:49:14 PM »
« Edited: December 15, 2016, 04:56:50 PM by Old School Republican »

You just can't adjust for demographics when changing years you have to adjust for patterns of electorate as well. So this is what would happen







Flip Virginia as well
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DPKdebator
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« Reply #6 on: December 15, 2016, 04:57:00 PM »

You just can't adjust for demographics when changing years you have to adjust for patterns of electorate as well. So this is what would happen


As I mentioned in OP, I was assuming this hypothetical scenario if voter demographics voted exactly like they did this year, except with 1980 population demographics.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #7 on: December 15, 2016, 06:32:33 PM »

You just can't adjust for demographics when changing years you have to adjust for patterns of electorate as well. So this is what would happen


As I mentioned in OP, I was assuming this hypothetical scenario if voter demographics voted exactly like they did this year, except with 1980 population demographics.

Then what you're asking is more of a mathematical equation rather than a matter of opinion.
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #8 on: December 15, 2016, 07:34:13 PM »
« Edited: December 15, 2016, 07:36:06 PM by Southern Delegate 1184AZ »


Based on the 1980 Election day voting demographic.
Trump also wins the PV.

Demographic makeup % gotten from here http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-1980/
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