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Author Topic: Post Race rating maps here  (Read 493 times)
Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself
omegascarlet
Junior Chimp
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« on: December 13, 2016, 01:40:21 AM »



I'm going to start this off with a bold prediction of NE and TX being somewhat competitive.
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Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself
omegascarlet
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: December 13, 2016, 02:09:04 AM »

We already have like ten threads for this, but okay.. also lol@NE as likely to flip as MO. WTF?






I said bold, and MO isn't the most likely dem loss. That is probably Indiana. Plus saying NM flipping is as likely as McCaskill getting reelected is way more ridiculous.

My map is probably close if things go quite bad in the next two years.
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« Reply #2 on: December 13, 2016, 02:14:01 AM »
« Edited: December 13, 2016, 02:18:45 AM by TN Volunteer »

MO isn't going to stay Democratic unless Trump has approvals in the low 30s and Ann Wagner or whoever they nominate talks about "legitimate rape". Donnelly is more moderate and a somewhat decent fit for his state, though he's definitely not favored (to say the least).

Democrats will be lucky to come within 15 points of beating Deb Fischer in Nebraska. Your bias is showing. I mean seriously... rating MO Lean D and NE Lean R?
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #3 on: December 13, 2016, 02:31:51 AM »

It's early, but here's where things start out.

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Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself
omegascarlet
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: December 13, 2016, 09:14:53 AM »

MO isn't going to stay Democratic unless Trump has approvals in the low 30s and Ann Wagner or whoever they nominate talks about "legitimate rape". Donnelly is more moderate and a somewhat decent fit for his state, though he's definitely not favored (to say the least).

Democrats will be lucky to come within 15 points of beating Deb Fischer in Nebraska. Your bias is showing. I mean seriously... rating MO Lean D and NE Lean R?

I said bold. I'm  making a quite brave prediction in NE and being "optimistic" about the Romney states and Ohio.
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15 Down, 35 To Go
ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #5 on: December 13, 2016, 09:41:28 AM »

Lean R: North Dakota, Indiana, Missouri, Arizona
Tossup: West Virginia, Montana, Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Nevada
Lean D: Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, Maine, New Mexico

All other states are out of play for now (there is a range here of D+2 to R+15).  My gut tells me that we pick up 4 Romney states (probably losing Montana), 3 Obama/Trump states (probably losing Michigan and Pennsylvania), and 1 Clinton state for a 60-40 majority.
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Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself
omegascarlet
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #6 on: December 13, 2016, 09:52:11 AM »

Lean R: North Dakota, Indiana, Missouri, Arizona
Tossup: West Virginia, Montana, Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Nevada
Lean D: Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, Maine, New Mexico

All other states are out of play for now (there is a range here of D+2 to R+15).  My gut tells me that we pick up 4 Romney states (probably losing Montana), 3 Obama/Trump states (probably losing Michigan and Pennsylvania), and 1 Clinton state for a 60-40 majority.

Your gut is a hack. Republicans would have to get very lucky to win that big.
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Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself
omegascarlet
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #7 on: December 13, 2016, 10:19:48 AM »

Lean R: North Dakota, Indiana, Missouri, Arizona
Tossup: West Virginia, Montana, Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Nevada
Lean D: Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, Maine, New Mexico

All other states are out of play for now (there is a range here of D+2 to R+15).  My gut tells me that we pick up 4 Romney states (probably losing Montana), 3 Obama/Trump states (probably losing Michigan and Pennsylvania), and 1 Clinton state for a 60-40 majority.

Your gut is a hack. Republicans would have to get very lucky to win that big.

It's really not more hackish than your prediction. I think that NJ, VA and NM are Safe D, but his other ratings are fine.

Honestly, I'm being bold in a hope to predict something unexpected. Plus I admit that my ratings are questionable.
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Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself
omegascarlet
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #8 on: December 13, 2016, 10:31:16 AM »



A new map with a fourth category, "solid" (60% shading). This category means the race probably isn't competitive, but theres just enough of a chance it could be that you can't be certain. For example, a California open seat statewide would be solid, not safe, due to the jungle primary and huge D bench.
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mencken
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« Reply #9 on: December 13, 2016, 10:35:13 AM »

The only incumbents in the last two midterms to overperform their party's nominee by the amount that Donnelly, Heitkamp, Manchin, McCaskill, and Tester would need to in 2018 were Grassley and Collins, both of whom had a decades-long history of similarly strong election performances. Although patterns like this have been broken before, I do not think it is unreasonable to believe that these incumbents face a minimum a slight disadvantage in light of increased partisan polarization.
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