PPP - 2020 Democratic Primary Poll: Biden 31%, Sanders 24%, Warren 16%

[The Other Castro]

Biden - 31%
Sanders - 24%
Warren - 16%
Booker - 4%
Franken - 3%
Gillibrand - 3%
Brown - 2%
Cuomo - 2%
Castro - <1%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_121316.pdf

[The Other Castro]

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[GlobeSoc]

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Interesting how Sanders AA percentage is relatively high.

[GlobeSoc]

Sanders and Biden running at the same time would be interesting.

[Fusionmunster]

Poor Cuomo.

[Gass3268]

Poor Cuomo.

Says no one ever.

[Progressive]

Sad they didn't poll without Biden and Sanders, which I suspect, could be the reality of the Democratic field for 2020

[JA]

Sad they didn't poll without Biden and Sanders, which I suspect, could be the reality of the Democratic field for 2020

Yep. Based on previous polls immediately following a Presidential election, we should expect about half of those listed to run and a couple rather unexpected candidates as well. The polls even two years from now are going to look a lot different. But it does tell us what the current mood is of the Democratic Party.

[Mr. Morden]

fav/unfav %:
Biden 79/12% for +67%
Sanders 78/11% for +67%
Warren 59/13% for +46%
Franken 44/15% for +29%
Booker 34/15% for +19%
Brown 23/14% for +9%
Gillibrand 22/13% for +9%
Cuomo 27/20% for +7%
Castro 20/20% for +/-0

Who leads among…?
very liberal: Biden
somewhat liberal: Biden/Sanders tie
moderate: Biden
men: Biden
women: Biden
Democrats: Biden
Independents: Sanders
whites: Biden
blacks: Biden
Hispanics: Biden/Sanders tie
age 18-45: Sanders
age 46-65: Biden
age 65+: Biden

The white/black difference is pretty stark…

blacks:
Biden 45%
Sanders 21%
Booker 10%
Warren 6%
Brown 3%
Gillibrand 3%
Cuomo 1%

whites:
Biden 27%
Sanders 25%
Warren 23%
Franken 4%
Booker 3%
Brown 3%
Cuomo 3%

Also, Sanders is a heck of a lot more popular with youngs than olds…

age 18-45:
Sanders 35%
Biden 31%
Warren 10%

age 65+:
Biden 35%
Warren 19%
Sanders 14%

While Warren is much more popular with “very liberal”s than moderates…

very liberal:
Biden 33%
Sanders 26%
Warren 26%

moderate:
Biden 31%
Sanders 23%
Warren 10%

Who would be your 2nd choice?

Sanders 15%
Biden 13%
Warren 11%
Booker 7%
Franken 4%
Cuomo 3%
Castro 2%
Brown 1%
Gillibrand 1%

[Shadows]

14% are undecided - This poll has Democrat-Indy at 87-13, huge chunk of moderates & people in the 46-65 age group. Warren & Sanders are drawing similar votes among the Very liberal & somewhat liberal base while Sanders is (Surprise) the best candidate among the  Very conservative Dems by a big margin. Joe Biden is at taking large parts of the Moderate & somewhat conservative vote. He has got the "Establishment" wing locked down while Bernie & Warren are fighting among themselves. Surprisingly Sanders has the highest gap between men & women (Sanders does 8% better among women than men - Who would have thought - Probably why Clinton didn't sweep women)

[Sir Mohamed]

Neither Biden nor Sanders will run in 2020. Just forget about it; it won’t happen. A 50% chance that Warren, who will be 71 in 2020, launches a campaign. More likely are Brown and Gabbard as far as the party’s left-wing is concerned.

[Mike67]

Biden - 31%
Sanders - 24%
Warren - 16%
Booker - 4%
Franken - 3%
Gillibrand - 3%
Brown - 2%
Cuomo - 2%
Castro - <1%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_121316.pdf

That sounds pretty probable. I think 2020 will be a fight between Biden,Sanders and Warren.

[Mr. Morden]

Since it's virtually a 3-way tie (Biden/Sanders/Warren) among white voters, would be curious to see what Iowa and NH polls look like.

[Gass3268]

Since it's virtually a 3-way tie (Biden/Sanders/Warren) among white voters, would be curious to see what Iowa and NH polls look like.

Pure guess would be Biden up in Iowa, Sanders up in New Hampshire. Biden probably dominating in South Carolina.

[Suburbia]

Cuomo has time. By summer 2017 he'll creep up in the polls. De Blasio and others should be included as well.

[MT Treasurer]

I think it'll be Booker. Maybe Biden, but I doubt it. Sanders is going to be beaten again.

[Suburbia]

I think it'll be Booker. Maybe Biden, but I doubt it. Sanders is going to be beaten again.

Maybe. Sanders may win NH, VT, ID, OK, etc. He has to win some Southern states if he wants to win the nomination. Booker, De Blasio, Cuomo could win Southern states.

[Mr. Morden]

These aren't necessarily the most likely candidates to run.  Klobuchar and O'Malley, for example, have given way more hints of interest than has, say, Sherrod Brown.  And Franken has outright said that he's not running.  But Klobuchar and O'Malley would probably each be at about 1% in a national poll like this right now, so whether they're included or not doesn't matter, I guess.

I do wonder, though, why leave Kaine off the list?  He said he's not running, but so did Franken.

[Shadows]

People are grossly underestimating Sanders. I mean Warren takes away half of his base in this poll & you have many people not voting for him thinking he will be too old.

Between now & then, if he runs his support will only grow with more young people coming into the voting age. People will tactically vote if Warren & Sanders both run & will go for the stronger nominee.

Bernie once again leads big among independents , 29% to Biden's 19% & Warren's 11%. So we will likely see Bernie performing better in head to heads with Trump.

Gillibrand 3% & Booker 4% show they have no support as of now outside their home state (maybe some African Americans for Booker). You can't win with these vanilla midget hacks.

Sanders will win NH big, Biden will SC big, NV is a pure toss-up, as is Iowa. Where does Warren come in? She has to drop out (even if he runs after she doesn't get any win, she can't be like Kasich with winning Mass only).

The 2020 nominee will be from the progressive camp which has more 50% of the Dem voting block as of now. But I think it will be a huge bloody war between Biden & Sanders or Warren

[Shadows]

These aren't necessarily the most likely candidates to run.  Klobuchar and O'Malley, for example, have given way more hints of interest than has, say, Sherrod Brown.  And Franken has outright said that he's not running.  But Klobuchar and O'Malley would probably each be at about 1% in a national poll like this right now, so whether they're included or not doesn't matter, I guess.

I do wonder, though, why leave Kaine off the list?  He said he's not running, but so did Franken.

How badly he does in Texas, Florida & whether he can win CA, NY, etc will decide it. He will retain most of the Sanders 2016 states - Only the rust belt of MI, WI, IW, IN etc would be closer (& maybe he could lose).

[Mr. Morden]

These aren't necessarily the most likely candidates to run.  Klobuchar and O'Malley, for example, have given way more hints of interest than has, say, Sherrod Brown.  And Franken has outright said that he's not running.  But Klobuchar and O'Malley would probably each be at about 1% in a national poll like this right now, so whether they're included or not doesn't matter, I guess.

I do wonder, though, why leave Kaine off the list?  He said he's not running, but so did Franken.

How badly he does in Texas, Florida & whether he can win CA, NY, etc will decide it. He will retain most of the Sanders 2016 states - Only the rust belt of MI, WI, IW, IN etc would be closer (& maybe he could lose).

I'm sorry, but who/what are you even talking about here?  I mentioned several different people in my post, so who is the "he" you're talking about, and in relation to what?

[Hindsight was 2020]

I honestly don't think Bernie is gonna run again in 2020 let alone Biden

[American2020]

If Biden wins the nomination, he'll have to adopt a progressive agenda. He must not repeat Hillary's Clinton mistakes.
He could choose a progressive VP.

[Inmate Trump]

Doesn't matter.  Russia hacked the results of one election and they'll do it again in the next one.

[Beet]

Doesn't matter.  Russia hacked the results of one election and they'll do it again in the next one.

Do you think they just hacked the emails or they hacked the actual vote?