Are Ohio and Iowa still battleground states?

[catscanjumphigh]

2010 and 2014 were very red years for these states in the midterm elections.  However, it can be risky using midterm data to predict presidential elections.  Then in 2016 neither of these states were competitive even though Democrats thought Clinton would win Ohio by 8 and she lost by nearly double digits.  I guess they were almost 20 points off in their Ohio polling.  Anyways,  in 2008 we saw Missouri basically tied in an election Obama won by a good margin.  Iowa was a purplish-blue battleground state, but in 2016 was just red while Missouri has basically become like Kansas and Nebraska.  Is the mid-west trend going north disqualifying Iowa as a battleground state?  Is Minnesota next say in 2024?  Last yea Minnesota was already center-right for the first time since the 50's.  Then we have Ohio who always votes for the winner but is never 10 points from center.  Has the West Virginia trend bled its way throughout Ohio and western Pennsylvania?  Will Pennsylvania be light red by 2024?  Or will Ohio and Iowa go back to their purple selves?

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

We'll find out in 2018, when we'll see if Sherrod Brown wins.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Iowa is a red state and Ohio is a "maroon" state

[RINO Tom]

I don't know, but the change in state image both of these states experienced on this site over the past year is nothing short of hilarious and proves that people try to paint their coalitions in comical and unrealistically favorable lights, though!

Iowa has the 10th lowest unemployment rate in the nation, has one of the nation's best school systems that graduates over 90% of its students and has 65% of its population in urban areas, had a majority of its suburban voters vote for Donald Trump and had a majority of its college graduates vote for Donald Trump, yet it's now talked about as this wasteland of uneducated factory workers and rural rubes who finally realized they were racist and are voting Republican.

Similarly, Ohio had its college graduates vote more Republican than its non-college graduates, had postgraduate voters vote for Donald Trump, has almost 80% of its population in urban areas, had nearly 60% of its suburban voters vote for Trump, had almost 60% of its wealthiest voters vote for Trump (easily his best income bracket) compared to nearly 60% of its poorest voters voting for Clinton, and yet Ohio is now talked about as only having flipped because these angry protectionist people in Youngstown LOVE them some Donald Trump, and the enlightened folks in Cincinnati and Columbus are simply outvoted from here on out!

Ridiculous.

[LLR]

Ohio is a Tossup, Iowa is Lean R.

[Figueira]

If I had to guess I'd say that Ohio is still a swing state while Iowa will continue to drift right, but at this point in time we don't have enough information to say for sure.

[Santander]

Iowa has the 10th lowest unemployment rate in the nation, has one of the nation's best school systems that graduates over 90% of its students and has 65% of its population in urban areas, had a majority of its suburban voters vote for Donald Trump and had a majority of its college graduates vote for Donald Trump, yet it's now talked about as this wasteland of uneducated factory workers and rural rubes who finally realized they were racist and are voting Republican.

Give it a rest. Iowa was never a major industrial state. Nobody says it is filled with factory workers.

[RINO Tom]

Iowa has the 10th lowest unemployment rate in the nation, has one of the nation's best school systems that graduates over 90% of its students and has 65% of its population in urban areas, had a majority of its suburban voters vote for Donald Trump and had a majority of its college graduates vote for Donald Trump, yet it's now talked about as this wasteland of uneducated factory workers and rural rubes who finally realized they were racist and are voting Republican.

Give it a rest. Iowa was never a major industrial state. Nobody says it is filled with factory workers.

Odd comment for you to take issue with, pal.  People keep talking about Iowa like the "White Working Class" - a group that has been stereotyped as many things on this site, but mainly intolerant - are taking over Iowa.  It's simply not true.

I know you and eHarding and other Trump fanatics like to play right into some of our elitist red avatars' fantasies about who comprises the GOP coalition, but it doesn't change the fact that you're both wrong.

[Bismarck]

I don't know, but the change in state image both of these states experienced on this site over the past year is nothing short of hilarious and proves that people try to paint their coalitions in comical and unrealistically favorable lights, though!

Iowa has the 10th lowest unemployment rate in the nation, has one of the nation's best school systems that graduates over 90% of its students and has 65% of its population in urban areas, had a majority of its suburban voters vote for Donald Trump and had a majority of its college graduates vote for Donald Trump, yet it's now talked about as this wasteland of uneducated factory workers and rural rubes who finally realized they were racist and are voting Republican.

Similarly, Ohio had its college graduates vote more Republican than its non-college graduates, had postgraduate voters vote for Donald Trump, has almost 80% of its population in urban areas, had nearly 60% of its suburban voters vote for Trump, had almost 60% of its wealthiest voters vote for Trump (easily his best income bracket) compared to nearly 60% of its poorest voters voting for Clinton, and yet Ohio is now talked about as only having flipped because these angry protectionist people in Youngstown LOVE them some Donald Trump, and the enlightened folks in Cincinnati and Columbus are simply outvoted from here on out!

Ridiculous.

Excellent post.

[Santander]

Odd comment for you to take issue with, pal.  People keep talking about Iowa like the "White Working Class" - a group that has been stereotyped as many things on this site, but mainly intolerant - are taking over Iowa.  It's simply not true.

The problem is that people have begun to consider whites as an identity voting bloc in general, when there is actually more diversity among whites than between whites and minority groups when it comes to the experiences of individuals.

[pbrower2a]

A recent poll showed Donald Trump with about a 42% approval rating. If he should run for election, and his standing in Iowa is no better at the start of the 2020 campaign, then he loses Iowa, getting only about 48% of the popular vote there. Ohio? I have no clue yet, as nobody has polled Ohio.

Donald Trump won those two states (and Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania) by playing upon visceral concerns. Should he not solve those visceral concerns, he loses at the least Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Ohio? Maybe.

Iowa and Wisconsin generally vote together, and their apparent divergence in 2004 looks striking until you recognize that Kerry barely won Wisconsin and barely lost Iowa.  The states have similar demographics.

I see 2016 as a freakish election. America rarely gets an honest-to-Hugo-Chavez demagogue winning a Presidential nomination. 2020 will look like a typical election from 2000 to 2012 if one of the nominees does not foul up badly.