Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 23, 2017, 02:58:36 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginia)
| | |-+  Is Florida really trending Democratic?
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Poll
Question: Is Florida really trending Democratic?
Yes   -7 (8.4%)
No, it is trending Republican   -13 (15.7%)
No, it is not trending much either war   -63 (75.9%)
Show Pie Chart
Total Voters: 83

Author Topic: Is Florida really trending Democratic?  (Read 1363 times)
AGA
Chrome
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 964


View Profile
« on: December 13, 2016, 09:08:33 am »
Ignore

Democrats talk about how the increasing Hispanic population, a lot of it coming from Puerto Rico, is moving Florida in their favor. The Clinton campaign expected demographics there to give her a 5 point win. However, the rural, white areas seem to trending Republican. Florida trended Republican in 2016, and it was less Republican relative to the nation in 1996 and 2000 than it was in 2016. Which way is Florida really trending, if any?
« Last Edit: December 13, 2016, 12:53:23 pm by Chrome »Logged

St. Alphonso
Chancellor
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1238


View Profile
« Reply #1 on: December 13, 2016, 09:34:54 am »
Ignore

It's staying pretty stable. The white vote has trended GOP and the increasing minority populations have offset this trend. Cubans still form a crucial swing block.
Logged
Figueira
84285
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8182


View Profile
« Reply #2 on: December 13, 2016, 12:05:57 pm »
Ignore

It's currently not moving much, but it could trend Democratic in the future I suppose.
Logged

Note: I am not actually British.

MT Treasurer
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13382
United States


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: December 13, 2016, 03:10:42 pm »
Ignore

It really isn't trending much either way. It will probably still be a swing state in 100 years, haha.

Edit: That being said, Republicans still can't afford to ignore their weaknesses among Non-White voters in the state.
« Last Edit: December 13, 2016, 03:18:42 pm by TN Volunteer »Logged



xīngkěruž
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10363
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

View Profile
« Reply #4 on: December 13, 2016, 03:20:24 pm »
Ignore

It might be. We'll have a better idea in four to eight years. There was talk about Iowa trending Republican as early as 2004, but it didn't become apparent until 2014. Note that many recent Republican victories in the state have been very narrow, so even a slight shift in Florida could have enormous consequences for the GOP.
Logged

Sbane
sbane
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14406


View Profile
« Reply #5 on: December 13, 2016, 03:30:06 pm »
Ignore

One thing that should be concerning for Republicans should be that they basically maxed out the rural, historic Dem vote, and still barely won the state. They still have opportunities with the continued growth of retirement communities, but there is still massive growth from Puerto Ricans moving to the state and older Cubans are going to continue to die off as they age.
Logged
Sbane
sbane
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14406


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: December 13, 2016, 03:33:49 pm »
Ignore



This is still a Democratic victory even if PA and WI stay Republican. Michigan and Minnesota are key though. And Democrats have other targets in AZ, GA and NC. 
Logged
Vosem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9511
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: -6.26

P P

View Profile
« Reply #7 on: December 13, 2016, 04:36:26 pm »
Ignore

Different communities in the state are trending in different directions, canceling each other out. The Democratic trends seem more sustainable to my eyes, but if a Democratic trend is going to launch soon it hasn't quite begun yet. There was a slight Republican trend, but this was mostly caused by the massive Democratic swing and increased turnout in California -- the state finished counting during the first week after the election, at which time it "trended" Democratic; more counting from California flipped the state, and a bunch of others, to trends Republican. California moved, not Florida.

If the Midwest does start to slip into leans- and likely- Republican territory, with IA and OH mostly leaving the playing field and formerly blue states like MN/WI/MI/PA entering it, Democrats need to lock up Florida, at least making it tilts-blue, or they'll be in the unenviable position of needing to sweep swing states to pull out a victory (much like Mitt Romney was in 2012).

Part of the Democrats' problem is that the FL Dems are just ludicrously incompetent and are skilled at recruiting the worst candidates to run for statewide office. Over the past ten years, Jim Davis, Kendrick Meek, Alex Sink, Charlie Crist, and Patrick Murphy have all thrown away winnable races. FL Dems need to get better at their candidate recruitment.
Logged

I will NOT be accepting any result other than a victory for America's next President, Governor Gary Earl Johnson Angry
L.D. Smith
MormDem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10225
United States


View Profile
« Reply #8 on: December 13, 2016, 05:00:21 pm »
Ignore

Different communities in the state are trending in different directions, canceling each other out. The Democratic trends seem more sustainable to my eyes, but if a Democratic trend is going to launch soon it hasn't quite begun yet. There was a slight Republican trend, but this was mostly caused by the massive Democratic swing and increased turnout in California -- the state finished counting during the first week after the election, at which time it "trended" Democratic; more counting from California flipped the state, and a bunch of others, to trends Republican. California moved, not Florida.

If the Midwest does start to slip into leans- and likely- Republican territory, with IA and OH mostly leaving the playing field and formerly blue states like MN/WI/MI/PA entering it, Democrats need to lock up Florida, at least making it tilts-blue, or they'll be in the unenviable position of needing to sweep swing states to pull out a victory (much like Mitt Romney was in 2012).

Part of the Democrats' problem is that the FL Dems are just ludicrously incompetent and are skilled at recruiting the worst candidates to run for statewide office. Over the past ten years, Jim Davis, Kendrick Meek, Alex Sink, Charlie Crist, and Patrick Murphy have all thrown away winnable races. FL Dems need to get better at their candidate recruitment.

To be fair with the last two, one was 2014 and Rick Scott wasn't Tom Corbett, and the other was doomed as soon as Rubio came back and that's without the Trump coattails [I suspect Jolly or CLC would've gotten Roy Blunt numbers accounting for that]
Logged

Political Spectrum

Government: 3.65 (Authoritarian)
Economics: -7.05 (Liberal)
Foreign Policy: -6.66 (Dove)
Culture Wars: -3.1 (Centrist)

Political Compass

Economics: -7.88
Social/Libertarian-Authoritarian: 0.92
ajc0918
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1459
United States


View Profile
« Reply #9 on: December 13, 2016, 11:01:25 pm »
Ignore

Here are a trend lines for the big urban counties in Florida, the percentages show what the democratic candidate received. A few things to note, Miami-Dade has continued to move toward democrats, like it has been mentioned before on the forum, older conservative Cubans are dying and non-Cuban hispanics or more democratic cubans are replacing them. Broward has remained pretty steady while republicans have narrowed the gap in Palm Beach.

In the I-4 corridor, Hillsborough has remained relatively stable but I expect it to continue to move slowly more toward democrats. Orange County has a fast growing Puerto Rican population that is pushing it more toward Democrats.

Duval is interesting, Republicans use to post 40-60k vote margins which helped balance South Florida. Dems have definitely pushed to close that gap, there was about a 6k vote margin this year.

D% of vote
 
Miami-Dade (Miami):
2000: 52.57%
2004: 52.89%
2008: 57.81%
2012: 61.58%
2016: 63.22%

Broward (Fort Lauderdale):
2000: 67.41%
2004: 64.21%
2008: 67.02%
2012: 67.12%
2016: 66.08%

Palm Beach (West Palm Beach):
2000: 62.27%
2004: 60.35%
2008: 61.08%
2012: 58.14%
2016: 56.24%

Hillsborough (Tampa):
2000: 47.06%
2004: 46.23%
2008: 53.05%
2012: 52.71%
2016: 50.99%

Orange (Orlando):
2000: 50.06%
2004: 49.83%
2008: 58.96%
2012: 58.56%
2016: 59.77%

Duval (Jacksonville):
2000: 40.74%
2004: 41.62%
2008: 48.63%
2012: 47.67%
2016: 48.48%
Logged

ElectionsGuy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15323
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: -7.30

View Profile
« Reply #10 on: December 14, 2016, 09:24:10 pm »
Ignore

In this election, the Republican trend of whites in northern Florida and exurban areas slightly outdid the Democratic trend in Orlando and Miami that was expected. Overall, the state is not trending much, but what will be fascinating is to see just how Democratic Miami-Dade can get, and will the deep south area to the west and east of Tallahassee keep getting more Republican? Florida is no lock for either party at the presidential level.
Logged
ajc0918
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1459
United States


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: December 14, 2016, 09:33:43 pm »
Ignore

In this election, the Republican trend of whites in northern Florida and exurban areas slightly outdid the Democratic trend in Orlando and Miami that was expected. Overall, the state is not trending much, but what will be fascinating is to see just how Democratic Miami-Dade can get, and will the deep south area to the west and east of Tallahassee keep getting more Republican? Florida is no lock for either party at the presidential level.

I was wondering this too but first we would need to see if Miami-Dade goes towards democrats in other races:

For example: in FL-25, FL-26, and FL-27 which are all controlled by Miami-Dade based Republicans, Trump only got 49.6%, 40.6%, and 39.1% of the vote, respectively. It will be interesting to see if Democrats can try to make a play at these three seats. Two of the three incumbents are pretty entrenched though so it would be tough unless they retire.
Logged

Heisenberg
SecureAmerica
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2730
United States


View Profile
« Reply #12 on: December 14, 2016, 09:58:54 pm »
Ignore

In this election, the Republican trend of whites in northern Florida and exurban areas slightly outdid the Democratic trend in Orlando and Miami that was expected. Overall, the state is not trending much, but what will be fascinating is to see just how Democratic Miami-Dade can get, and will the deep south area to the west and east of Tallahassee keep getting more Republican? Florida is no lock for either party at the presidential level.

I was wondering this too but first we would need to see if Miami-Dade goes towards democrats in other races:

For example: in FL-25, FL-26, and FL-27 which are all controlled by Miami-Dade based Republicans, Trump only got 49.6%, 40.6%, and 39.1% of the vote, respectively. It will be interesting to see if Democrats can try to make a play at these three seats. Two of the three incumbents are pretty entrenched though so it would be tough unless they retire.
Remember, the 25th also extends into the Naples area, and even with Trump, Hillary couldn't win it. Mario can have the seat as long as he wants it, and even when he retires, his successor is almost certain to be a Republican. I think post-Trump, the numbers go back up a little (not to pre-'08 levels, but I think Trump hit a floor).
Logged

I've been trying to tell you guys. Clinton's win is going to be massive. Imagine Obama's numbers with minorities, four more years of minority population growth, and Clinton out-performing him by >5% with white voters. No state will be safe.

ajc0918
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1459
United States


View Profile
« Reply #13 on: December 14, 2016, 10:26:03 pm »
Ignore

In this election, the Republican trend of whites in northern Florida and exurban areas slightly outdid the Democratic trend in Orlando and Miami that was expected. Overall, the state is not trending much, but what will be fascinating is to see just how Democratic Miami-Dade can get, and will the deep south area to the west and east of Tallahassee keep getting more Republican? Florida is no lock for either party at the presidential level.

I was wondering this too but first we would need to see if Miami-Dade goes towards democrats in other races:

For example: in FL-25, FL-26, and FL-27 which are all controlled by Miami-Dade based Republicans, Trump only got 49.6%, 40.6%, and 39.1% of the vote, respectively. It will be interesting to see if Democrats can try to make a play at these three seats. Two of the three incumbents are pretty entrenched though so it would be tough unless they retire.
Remember, the 25th also extends into the Naples area, and even with Trump, Hillary couldn't win it. Mario can have the seat as long as he wants it, and even when he retires, his successor is almost certain to be a Republican. I think post-Trump, the numbers go back up a little (not to pre-'08 levels, but I think Trump hit a floor).

I definitely agree, but Democrats should at least contest it. According to this analysis, the Miami-Dade portion of FL-25 moved 13.3% toward the Democrats while the Collier and Hendry portions moved 3.6% and 8.3% toward Republicans. Overall the district shifted 8% to Democrats, you may be right that this is the floor but if Miami-Dade Cubans continue moving toward the Dems this seat could be in play in the future.

edit:
Oops forgot to include link: http://mcimaps.com/how-floridas-congressional-districts-voted-and-the-impact-of-redistricting/
« Last Edit: December 14, 2016, 10:32:11 pm by ajc0918 »Logged

vileplume
Full Member
***
Posts: 149
P P P
View Profile
« Reply #14 on: December 16, 2016, 05:20:21 pm »
Ignore

Here are a trend lines for the big urban counties in Florida, the percentages show what the democratic candidate received. A few things to note, Miami-Dade has continued to move toward democrats, like it has been mentioned before on the forum, older conservative Cubans are dying and non-Cuban hispanics or more democratic cubans are replacing them. Broward has remained pretty steady while republicans have narrowed the gap in Palm Beach.


Palm Beach (West Palm Beach):
2000: 62.27%
2004: 60.35%
2008: 61.08%
2012: 58.14%
2016: 56.24%


Why is this the case? It doesn't look like the kind of area that should be trending GOP.

Here is how Palm Beach County voted relative to the nation at each election since 2000:

2000: D+26.45
2004: D+23.77
2008: D+15.60
2012: D+13.15
2016: D+13.26

So while there was a Democratic trend this year it was tiny at 0.11 (which is essentially non-existent) even with Trump as the GOP nominee who I assume is a fairly horrible fit for this kind of place. It does seem that Palm Beach County is slowly drifting Republican. Rubio was less than 10% away from winning it and he did better there than in Miami-Dade despite his Cuban appeal.

I would not be surprised if a Republican was able to carry this county in a convincing state-wide win sometime in the not to distant future. The tightening of the margin in Palm Beach County is probably a significant factor in why Florida has not trended much at all recently and still remaining a Tilt R state in an even year even as Republican support craters in Miami-Dade and Orange.
« Last Edit: December 16, 2016, 11:37:10 pm by vileplume »Logged
tambrosia
Newbie
*
Posts: 7
United States


View Profile
« Reply #15 on: January 02, 2017, 11:54:18 am »
Ignore

Palm Beach County is why the UN Israel resolution was boneheaded for Dems politically...
Logged
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3747
United States


View Profile
« Reply #16 on: January 03, 2017, 10:11:12 am »
Ignore

No, itís not tending in either direction. Presidential elections have always been very close for the past decades. Itís certainly not trending Democratic as long as Dems are in disarray at the state level and midterms in general (except maybe Senator Bill Nelson), since they havenít managed to win a single gubernatorial election since 1994.
Logged

United Arab Emirates Immigrant, naturalized US citizen, living in the wonderful state of California, progressive and devoted Democrat. Any questions?

Future endorsements:
- President: Kamala Harris
- CA Governor: Gavin Newsom

THANK YOU BARACK OBAMA and JOE BIDEN for your outstanding service to America.
Ronnie
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7491
United States


View Profile
« Reply #17 on: March 20, 2017, 08:49:40 pm »
Ignore

The question is, which party maxed out their vote more in 2016?  Would be interesting to see which areas had the highest turnout. 

The fact that the older Cuban generations are being replaced by new ones, combined with the fact that the state's electorate is rapidly diversifying--62% of the electorate was white this cycle compared with 67% in 2012--makes me think Democrats have much more room to grow.  Republicans have to inch up to 70% of the white vote sooner rather than later, just to keep the state even, if they can't make inroads with Latinos or blacks. 
Logged

Born, raised, and currently residing in Southern California
Skill and Chance
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3060
View Profile
« Reply #18 on: March 22, 2017, 05:56:36 pm »
Ignore

The question is, which party maxed out their vote more in 2016?  Would be interesting to see which areas had the highest turnout. 

The fact that the older Cuban generations are being replaced by new ones, combined with the fact that the state's electorate is rapidly diversifying--62% of the electorate was white this cycle compared with 67% in 2012--makes me think Democrats have much more room to grow.  Republicans have to inch up to 70% of the white vote sooner rather than later, just to keep the state even, if they can't make inroads with Latinos or blacks. 

That would mean that the retiree communities will have to start voting like West Texas.  However, that seems plausible enough right now.
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines