Why can't the GOP win EBR parish, even in landslide victories in the state?

[Matty]

Kennedy lost it, cassidy lost it, etc.

[MT Treasurer]

It's 47% Black and Black voter turnout tends to be quite high in the Deep South, even in runoff elections. Especially in LA.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The last republican to get a majority there was Bobby Jindal in 2011, so it can be done. It's just that more recent louisiana elections have been closer than that 2011 race.

[Miles]

The parish has gotten 8% or so more black in the past decade while Republican electorate is getting more moderate.

In this year's case, Bodi White didn't run an especially great campaign, despite overperforming my expectations with the election day vote.

[DrScholl]

Hurricane Katrina. Those evacuees had to go somewhere and Baton Rouge was the place.

[smoltchanov]

The parish has gotten 8% or so more black in the past decade while Republican electorate is getting more moderate.

In this year's case, Bodi White didn't run an especially great campaign, despite overperforming my expectations with the election day vote.

IMHO - Delgado could be better candidate. White was "too typical" for Republican candidate in the South. Not terrible, but "too typical"...

[Klartext89]

I think 47% Black is the answer. I'm afraid Whites have insufficient cohesion compared with Blacks...

[smoltchanov]

I think 47% Black is the answer. I'm afraid Whites have insufficient cohesion compared with Blacks...

You want whites to vote 99% Republican, don't you?

[Klartext89]

I think 47% Black is the answer. I'm afraid Whites have insufficient cohesion compared with Blacks...

You want whites to vote 99% Republican, don't you?

It's about time ;-)

[smoltchanov]

I think 47% Black is the answer. I'm afraid Whites have insufficient cohesion compared with Blacks...

You want whites to vote 99% Republican, don't you?

It's about time ;-)

No. I hate that "whites" vs. "blacks" opposition. It's an idiocy when you can guess election results simply looking at district's demography...

[Klartext89]

I think 47% Black is the answer. I'm afraid Whites have insufficient cohesion compared with Blacks...

You want whites to vote 99% Republican, don't you?

It's about time ;-)

No. I hate that "whites" vs. "blacks" opposition. It's an idiocy when you can guess election results simply looking at district's demography...

Nevertheless, it's reality.

[smoltchanov]

I think 47% Black is the answer. I'm afraid Whites have insufficient cohesion compared with Blacks...

You want whites to vote 99% Republican, don't you?

It's about time ;-)

No. I hate that "whites" vs. "blacks" opposition. It's an idiocy when you can guess election results simply looking at district's demography...

Nevertheless, it's reality.

In some districts - yes. That's why i prefer situation of about 45 years ago (when i began to pay attention to US elections), when Democrat could win 75% Republican (on presidential level) district and vice versa. And that's why i passionatly hate present "polarization". In Congress, state legislatures, everywhere. Election prediction, mostly, became so boring...

[Klartext89]

I think 47% Black is the answer. I'm afraid Whites have insufficient cohesion compared with Blacks...

You want whites to vote 99% Republican, don't you?

It's about time ;-)

No. I hate that "whites" vs. "blacks" opposition. It's an idiocy when you can guess election results simply looking at district's demography...

Nevertheless, it's reality.

In some districts - yes. That's why i prefer situation of about 45 years ago (when i began to pay attention to US elections), when Democrat could win 75% Republican (on presidential level) district and vice versa. And that's why i passionatly hate present "polarization". In Congress, state legislatures, everywhere. Election prediction, mostly, became so boring...

Well, there are pros and cons on everything. You're right on the one hand, but on on the other hand it makes it easier to assume trends and where races are going. For example, I was very sure the GOP would win NC because of the early voting numbers.

Also, there are still plenty of crossover voters. Look at GOP Govenors in Maryland, Massachusetts, Vermon, Illinois e.g., look at Dem Govenors in Louisiana, Montana e.g.

If I compare this "polarization" to my country, with an appr. 98% Whites electorate, without Registration end so on, there are also lots of Districts, Regions, States that went for the same Party since 1949... I'm living in a constituency/town that wasn't competitive ever. Not for a local election, not for a state election, not for a federal election.

Seems quite normal to me...

[smoltchanov]

I think 47% Black is the answer. I'm afraid Whites have insufficient cohesion compared with Blacks...

You want whites to vote 99% Republican, don't you?

It's about time ;-)

No. I hate that "whites" vs. "blacks" opposition. It's an idiocy when you can guess election results simply looking at district's demography...

Nevertheless, it's reality.

In some districts - yes. That's why i prefer situation of about 45 years ago (when i began to pay attention to US elections), when Democrat could win 75% Republican (on presidential level) district and vice versa. And that's why i passionatly hate present "polarization". In Congress, state legislatures, everywhere. Election prediction, mostly, became so boring...

Well, there are pros and cons on everything. You're right on the one hand, but on on the other hand it makes it easier to assume trends and where races are going. For example, I was very sure the GOP would win NC because of the early voting numbers.

Also, there are still plenty of crossover voters. Look at GOP Govenors in Maryland, Massachusetts, Vermon, Illinois e.g., look at Dem Govenors in Louisiana, Montana e.g.

If I compare this "polarization" to my country, with an appr. 98% Whites electorate, without Registration end so on, there are also lots of Districts, Regions, States that went for the same Party since 1949... I'm living in a constituency/town that wasn't competitive ever. Not for a local election, not for a state election, not for a federal election.

Seems quite normal to me...

Well, i understand. But still - don't like present situation, and, especially, trends. Sometimes it seems to me that US is a 2 countries, not 1. And neither of these 2 wants to listen to other... And, in addition - as early as you see letter after somebody's name - you can with more then 95% probability predict his/her position on issues. When i began to study American politics - almost every posiible combination of liberals/moderates/conservatives was feasible in BOTH parties, and it was much more fun to find out - who is who...

[smoltchanov]

I think 47% Black is the answer. I'm afraid Whites have insufficient cohesion compared with Blacks...

You want whites to vote 99% Republican, don't you?

It's about time ;-)

No. I hate that "whites" vs. "blacks" opposition. It's an idiocy when you can guess election results simply looking at district's demography...

Nevertheless, it's reality.

In some districts - yes. That's why i prefer situation of about 45 years ago (when i began to pay attention to US elections), when Democrat could win 75% Republican (on presidential level) district and vice versa. And that's why i passionatly hate present "polarization". In Congress, state legislatures, everywhere. Election prediction, mostly, became so boring...

Well, there are pros and cons on everything. You're right on the one hand, but on on the other hand it makes it easier to assume trends and where races are going. For example, I was very sure the GOP would win NC because of the early voting numbers.

Also, there are still plenty of crossover voters. Look at GOP Govenors in Maryland, Massachusetts, Vermon, Illinois e.g., look at Dem Govenors in Louisiana, Montana e.g.

If I compare this "polarization" to my country, with an appr. 98% Whites electorate, without Registration end so on, there are also lots of Districts, Regions, States that went for the same Party since 1949... I'm living in a constituency/town that wasn't competitive ever. Not for a local election, not for a state election, not for a federal election.

Seems quite normal to me...

Well, i understand. But still - don't like present situation, and, especially, trends. Sometimes it seems to me that US is a 2 countries, not 1. And neither of these 2 wants to listen to other... And, in addition - as early as you see letter after somebody's name - you can with more then 95% probability predict his/her position on issues. When i began to study American politics - almost every posiible combination of liberals/moderates/conservatives was feasible in BOTH parties, and it was much more fun to find out - who is who...

That lead to widespread dillusionment about politics, though. People weren't that excited because they didn't see a lot of change coming in, no matter who the President was.

Are you saying that people are very excited about politics NOW? In my (many) years i never saw so much apathy and, simultaneously, political hatred, as now, And i wouldn't say that polarisation improved politicians quality - both Trump and Clinton are very good examples..

[hopper]

The parish has gotten 8% or so more black in the past decade while Republican electorate is getting more moderate.

In this year's case, Bodi White didn't run an especially great campaign, despite overperforming my expectations with the election day vote.

I think becoming more fiscally moderate but socially probably Louisiana Republicans are like the rest of the Deep South in being Conservative.