MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[This account no longer in use.]

Wasn't that Reuters? Which were subsamples of their national polls.

Nah, Google. Check the link:

National Topline
Clinton: 36
Trump: 35
Johnson: 8
Undecided: 31

Montana
Clinton: 33
Trump: 29

Now all we need is ARG and Zogby to poll this race...

Don't forget Overtime Politics, may they rest in peace.

[The Other Castro]

Wasn't that Reuters? Which were subsamples of their national polls.

Nah, Google. Check the link:

National Topline
Clinton: 36
Trump: 35
Johnson: 8
Undecided: 31

Montana
Clinton: 33
Trump: 29

Now all we need is ARG and Zogby to poll this race...

Don't forget Overtime Politics, may they rest in peace.

Oh God, let's please never mention them again.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

The NRA rated Bullock and Tester badly too, and they still won.

Bullock has a C and Tester has an A-. Quist has a freaking F. Gianforte has an A. Could be a large game changer. Also, you have to look at the weed and nude resort issue from Montana's view, and not ours. Hopefully you are right about it, Since I really want Quist to win, but Montana is a socially conservative state, and those two things could be potential game changers.

[Chief Justice Keef]

The NRA rated Bullock and Tester badly too, and they still won.

Bullock has a C and Tester has an A-. Quist has a freaking F. Gianforte has an A. Could be a large game changer. Also, you have to look at the weed and nude resort issue from Montana's view, and not ours. Hopefully you are right about it, Since I really want Quist to win, but Montana is a socially conservative state, and those two things could be potential game changers.

I'm pretty sure social conservatism isn't going to make a difference in the wake of AHCA and Russiagate.

[MT Treasurer]

^I could definitely see the AHCA having an impact, but I don't think "Russiagate" will play a big role in the outcome of this race. GA-06 has been much more nationalized than MT (but again - that doesn't mean the national mood doesn't influence factors like turnout - sure it does). This article makes some pretty good points IMO:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Link.

I don't think Quist being a nudist will change many people's minds either, but yeah, had he run a better campaign, he probably would have won by 5-7 points or so. Oh well, he could still win, so nothing is lost for Democrats yet.

[mattocaster6]

^I could definitely see the AHCA having an impact, but I don't think "Russiagate" will play a big role in the outcome of this race. GA-06 has been much more nationalized than MT (but again - that doesn't mean the national mood doesn't influence factors like turnout - sure it does). This article makes some pretty good points IMO:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I don't think Quist being a nudist will change many people's minds either, but yeah, had he run a better campaign, he probably would have won by 5-7 points or so. Oh well, he could still win, so nothing is lost for Democrats yet.

Can I ask how Quist has run a bad campaign? I mean, things that Quist did in the past aren't really a product of his campaign. His ads have been very hard hitting and effective, he's been turning out thousands to his rallies/events, how is that running a bad campaign?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

The NRA rated Bullock and Tester badly too, and they still won.

Bullock has a C and Tester has an A-. Quist has a freaking F. Gianforte has an A. Could be a large game changer. Also, you have to look at the weed and nude resort issue from Montana's view, and not ours. Hopefully you are right about it, Since I really want Quist to win, but Montana is a socially conservative state, and those two things could be potential game changers.

I'm pretty sure social conservatism isn't going to make a difference in the wake of AHCA and Russiagate.

Russiagate has been limping along for almost a year now, and the most it's been is a small splinter in the side of the GOP. They still won with it, no biggie. Terrible point. But, you do have a good point with the AHCA. And while people do make extreme decisions in extreme scenarios, they still have their morals and values rooted in them for generations, and completely discounting that would be foolish.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

^I could definitely see the AHCA having an impact, but I don't think "Russiagate" will play a big role in the outcome of this race. GA-06 has been much more nationalized than MT (but again - that doesn't mean the national mood doesn't influence factors like turnout - sure it does). This article makes some pretty good points IMO:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I don't think Quist being a nudist will change many people's minds either, but yeah, had he run a better campaign, he probably would have won by 5-7 points or so. Oh well, he could still win, so nothing is lost for Democrats yet.

Can I ask how Quist has run a bad campaign? I mean, things that Quist did in the past aren't really a product of his campaign. His ads have been very hard hitting and effective, he's been turning out thousands to his rallies/events, how is that running a bad campaign?

It's not a bad campaign at all. But, it still has several issues in it, but overall, it is one of the better democratic campaigns in the state that I have seen. The second part is dumb though. It sounds like the Kellyanne statement that made Anderson Cooper roll his eyes. Stupid antics that people did in the past do matter. If your statement was true, we'd have Hillary Clinton as president today, because no one would look at Benghazi or her emails, and in that case, she would have won. His ads have been hard hitting, but none of us have enough info to say whether it has been effective or not. We will find out whether they have been effective when either or both of the scenarios occur. 1. We see the election results on thursday, 2. a respectable pollster jumps in at the last minute to give us material that is not crap. And he does have a huge base following him, hopefully he can turn them into votes in places like Missoula on election day.

[Figueira]

Since when is Montana a "socially conservative state"?

[MT Treasurer]

Can I ask how Quist has run a bad campaign? I mean, things that Quist did in the past aren't really a product of his campaign. His ads have been very hard hitting and effective, he's been turning out thousands to his rallies/events, how is that running a bad campaign?

Oh, feel free to disagree if you want, but that's not only been my impression. He's done much worse than I thought he would do at the beginning of this race, after he won the Democratic nomination. Quist hasn't been clear about where he stands on several issues (most notably gun rights and foreign policy), and he just kept repeating his "But Gianforte is from New Jersey!" and "But Russia" talking points over and over again, especially during the debate, which was rather disappointing. His claim that Gianforte had "Russian ties" was basically a lie. Honestly, Amanda Curtis (who is one of my favorite MT Democrats, so I might be biased) comes across as much more authentic than Quist.

Say what you want about Gianforte, but he's done a pretty good job so far, even though I liked him more when he ran for governor. There's a reason why three of Montana's largest newspapers have endorsed him.

But like you said, Quist's base is probably still very motivated and will turn out for him on election day, and "candidate quality" is often overrated anyway.

[The_Doctor]

Is it bad I just read MT Treasurer in this thread (well a few other people)? But from all the posts it just feels like a Gianaforte win by 4-5% still and the Republican base hasn't abandoned ship completely…

[mattocaster6]

Can I ask how Quist has run a bad campaign? I mean, things that Quist did in the past aren't really a product of his campaign. His ads have been very hard hitting and effective, he's been turning out thousands to his rallies/events, how is that running a bad campaign?

Oh, feel free to disagree if you want, but that's not only been my impression. He's done much worse than I thought he would do at the beginning of this race, after he won the Democratic nomination. Quist hasn't been clear about where he stands on several issues (most notably gun rights and foreign policy), and he just kept repeating his "But Gianforte is from New Jersey!" and "But Russia" talking points over and over again, especially during the debate, which was rather disappointing. His claim that Gianforte had "Russian ties" was basically a lie. Honestly, Amanda Curtis (who is one of my favorite MT Democrats, so I might be biased) comes across as much more authentic than Quist.

Say what you want about Gianforte, but he's done a pretty good job so far, even though I liked him more when he ran for governor. There's a reason why three of Montana's largest newspapers have endorsed him.

But like you said, Quist's base is probably still very motivated and will turn out for him on election day, and "candidate quality" is often overrated anyway.

Curtis lost her senate race by 20 points in 2014 though

[MT Treasurer]

Curtis lost her senate race by 20 points in 2014 though

Actually, it was 18 points. I'm not saying she would have done better than Quist in this race, just that I think that she is more authentic (and I'm probably in the minority with that view, so yeah).

Let's not derail this thread any further, though. I'm sticking with my Gianforte +5 prediction for now (and probably won't change it before election day), but Quist could absolutely win. Enough from me now.

[Shadows]

Tester won by 0.9% in 2006, 3.7% in 2012, Walsh (Dem-Gov) won by 1.6% in 2012, Bullock won by 3.8% in 2016. At a time when Trump won the state by 20% odd, I highly doubt that Quist would have won by 6-7% , more like 1-4% odd at best. People exaggerate individual candidates issues & think ohh "X issue" will lead to the downfall & they have also exaggerated the faults of Quest's candidacy. This was always a Tilt R/lean R race & IMO Gianforte +3/4, unless there is some record high turnout, especially among college going young folks !

Amanda Curtis ran for the Senate in 2014 & lost by 17.7%. The campaign a novice 1st timer politician like Quist has run isn't necessarily a bad one. Also the Russian thing will barely have an impact. Look at Trump's approvals, barely has it changed, more than 90% of his voters are still comfortable with the choice, etc - The AHCA maybe will have some impact, no1 really knows how much !

[Adam Griffin]

From our view, no. From a socially conservative state like Montana, well let's just hope that you are right. And I notice how you left off the NRA factor, now that is damaging.

I wouldn't describe Montana as "socially conservative" - at least not in the Southern, Bible-thumping "do as I say, not as I do" mold. That is in its own classification and quite separate from what you're conflating with what someone might call "rural values".

I really doubt there's any meaningful number of voters there who are open to voting for Democrats at any level but who would be bothered by the weed thing, or even the nude thing, to the extent that it'd decide their vote. Anything to do with guns would have much more impact, but even then, NRA whining is increasingly worthless.

[heatcharger]

Honestly, Amanda Curtis (who is one of my favorite MT Democrats, so I might be biased) comes across as much more authentic than Quist.

Uh, what? This is quite surprising coming from you.

I have no idea how this election will go. My current prediction is Gianforte +5, but given the lack of any quality polling and the volatility of Trump, there's a wide spectrum of possible outcomes.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

From our view, no. From a socially conservative state like Montana, well let's just hope that you are right. And I notice how you left off the NRA factor, now that is damaging.

I wouldn't describe Montana as "socially conservative" - at least not in the Southern, Bible-thumping "do as I say, not as I do" mold. That is in its own classification and quite separate from what you're conflating with what someone might call "rural values".

I really doubt there's any meaningful number of voters there who are open to voting for Democrats at any level but who would be bothered by the weed thing, or even the nude thing, to the extent that it'd decide their vote. Anything to do with guns would have much more impact, but even then, NRA whining is increasingly worthless.

I'm worrried more about swaying the independents, and I'm scared that they could be turned off by those things. As for the weapons, as I have said before, we are all going into this blind, and we won't know the efficacy of anything until we either or both see some good polling at the last minute, or see the election results on thursday.

[Mr. Smith]

Can I ask how Quist has run a bad campaign? I mean, things that Quist did in the past aren't really a product of his campaign. His ads have been very hard hitting and effective, he's been turning out thousands to his rallies/events, how is that running a bad campaign?

Oh, feel free to disagree if you want, but that's not only been my impression. He's done much worse than I thought he would do at the beginning of this race, after he won the Democratic nomination. Quist hasn't been clear about where he stands on several issues (most notably gun rights and foreign policy), and he just kept repeating his "But Gianforte is from New Jersey!" and "But Russia" talking points over and over again, especially during the debate, which was rather disappointing. His claim that Gianforte had "Russian ties" was basically a lie. Honestly, Amanda Curtis (who is one of my favorite MT Democrats, so I might be biased) comes across as much more authentic than Quist.

Say what you want about Gianforte, but he's done a pretty good job so far, even though I liked him more when he ran for governor. There's a reason why three of Montana's largest newspapers have endorsed him.

But like you said, Quist's base is probably still very motivated and will turn out for him on election day, and "candidate quality" is often overrated anyway.

Curtis lost her senate race by 20 points in 2014 though

She also had no time to really build-up as she came in at the last minute, AND John Walsh's scandal really tainted that race, AND it was 2014.

Mark Pryor did about the same with none of those things against him.

Try again.

[mattocaster6]

Even so, Quist is about to do better than any democratic candidate has done since 1996/92 in the Montana congressional seat, that's a fairly large achievement in itself even if he doesn't pull it off.

[mattocaster6]

My google survey with sample size of 60 is completed, could someone with the knowledge please weight it (I know with a sample size that small it won't help much but still):

Survey link:
surveys.google.com/reporting/survey?survey=jaxfdpd3rxotdiygpxubxdp4c4

Apparently the margin of error is 11%, the results were:

Rob Quist: 45% (27)

Greg Gianforte: 10% (6)

Mark Wicks: 5% (3)

Undecided: 28.3% (17)

Not likely to vote: 11.7% (7)

Quist is leading Gianforte outside the margin of error but I know it's probably meaningless anyway because of no weighting and miniscule sample size + it being a google poll

[mattocaster6]

I predict the flip side of Tender Branson's prediction:

49.0% Rob Quist
47.2% Greg Gianforte
3.8% Mark Wicks

[mattocaster6]

cinyc, how many responses so far? Any clues?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I predict the flip side of Tender Branson's prediction:

49.0% Rob Quist
47.2% Greg Gianforte
3.8% Mark Wicks

I hope you are really right. My guess is nearly identical to yours too.

[Gass3268]

Roll Call moved this from Likely R to Tilts R

[RogueBeaver]

Sabato & Cook both call it Lean R.