MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Brittain33]

Mass and Montana PVIs are comparable, so Quist winning would be something like Scott Brown's win.

[MT Treasurer]

Mass and Montana PVIs are comparable, so Quist winning would be something like Scott Brown's win.

Montana is wayyyy more Democratic-friendly down ballot (including federal races) than MA is Republican-friendly, though.

[The Other Castro]

Early Voting has exceeded 2014 levels. Info from DDHQ as of last night:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://decisiondeskhq.com/upcoming-races/early-voting-in-mtal-exceeds-2014/

[JGibson]

My predictions, as of now:
Quist (D): 47.5%
Gianforte (R): 47.1%
Wicks (L):  5.4%

[MT Treasurer]

Early Voting has exceeded 2014 levels. Info from DDHQ as of last night:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://decisiondeskhq.com/upcoming-races/early-voting-in-mtal-exceeds-2014/

Added the change (5/18-5/21) in brackets.

[cinyc]

cinyc, how many responses so far? Any clues?

We're up to 355/567 responses.  Of those, 236 are usable - i.e. didn't choose the "I am not likely to vote in this election" option.  We're on track to get about 375 or so usable responses, if current rates continue.

[Holmes]

Yellowstone might propel Gianforte to victory.

[rob in cal]

  Whats up with Missoula?  One would think the return rate would be higher due to Dem enthusiasm.

[mattocaster6]

  Whats up with Missoula?  One would think the return rate would be higher due to Dem enthusiasm.

It's higher than it was in 2014.

[mattocaster6]

Gravis confirms they are definitely releasing a new poll on this race:

https://twitter.com/GravisMarketing/status/866706234749177862

[_]

Gravis confirms they are definitely releasing a poll on this race:

https://twitter.com/GravisMarketing/status/866706234749177862

So we still have no polling.

[mattocaster6]

Quist currently at a 34% chance on PredictIt: https://www.predictit.org/Market/2961/Who-will-win-the-2017-House-of-Representatives-special-election-in-Montana

[MT Treasurer]

My predictions:

Google poll #1: Quist +12
Google poll #2: Quist +23
Gravis: Quist +2

[The Other Castro]

DDHQ predicts an overall turnout of 58% (~407154 votes).

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/866724796561620992

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Quist currently at a 34% chance on PredictIt: https://www.predictit.org/Market/2961/Who-will-win-the-2017-House-of-Representatives-special-election-in-Montana

How many predictIt users are intimately familiar with Montana politics?

[The Other Castro]

Big: GOP polling has the race in MOE.

Alex Isenstadt @politicoalex
NEW: Fresh GOP polling has party's lead in Montana special election down to 2-4 pts. TIGHT, with Gianforte expected to get less than 50%

https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/866727861834702849

[The Other Castro]

Might be an expectations setter, might not. Remember that KS-4 GOP poll that supposedly had Estes up only one point?

[MT Treasurer]

Quist currently at a 34% chance on PredictIt: https://www.predictit.org/Market/2961/Who-will-win-the-2017-House-of-Representatives-special-election-in-Montana

How many predictIt users are intimately familiar with Montana politics?

Judging from the comment section, not many.

[mattocaster6]

https://twitter.com/GravisMarketing/status/866731058464792576

Tweet by @GravisMarketing: "The statistician has it. From my initial review of the raw data the race has Tightened. I could be off. Will have report shortly"

Poll releasing shortly, likely showing the race tightening.

[Tender Branson]

Yeah, this is probably a 3-point race now.

A couple months ago, I thought R+8 to R+10. But Gianforte seems to be a weak candidate.

I wouldn't be surprised if Quist pulls this out on Thursday ...

[mattocaster6]

https://twitter.com/GravisMarketing/status/866732022626209793

Tweet by @GravisMarketing: "Montana results hopefully around 5pm Est.  Large sample around 1000 completes."

1000 sample size Poll from Gravis coming soon, here we go.

[_]

https://twitter.com/GravisMarketing/status/866732022626209793

Tweet by @GravisMarketing: "Montana results hopefully around 5pm Est.  Large sample around 1000 completes."

1000 sample size Poll from Gravis coming soon, here we go.

Predicting R+4

[The_Doctor]

Alex Isensadt
@politicoalex

NEW: Fresh GOP pollig has party's lead in Montana special election down to 2-4 pts. TIGHT, with Gianoforte expected to get less than 50%.

=========

Who is he talking about?

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Quist currently at a 34% chance on PredictIt: https://www.predictit.org/Market/2961/Who-will-win-the-2017-House-of-Representatives-special-election-in-Montana

How many predictIt users are intimately familiar with Montana politics?

Judging from the comment section, not many.

Yeah, this sort of thing leads me to be deeply skeptical of betting markets. Are they good for assessing the cosmopolitan elite's conventional wisdom? Yes. Is that vaguely influential on world events? Yes. Does that mean that they're strongly predictive? No.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I insist that we resist and persist by assisting Quist who will hopefully deport the Gianfort. (I had to leave off the e from his name otherwise it would not have worked as well. Surely if people can corrupt it to Pianoforte, I can just drop an e...)