MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[rob in cal]

  Has Wicks run much of a visible campaign, and is he trying to tailor his appeal either toward the left or right?

[cinyc]

Questions Continue to Swell: No Record That Rob Quist Registered for Selective Service Says National Archives
Washington Free Beacon/Brent Scher
May 24, 2017 5:00 am

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This is probably the last oppo dump on Quist - and likely too late to have any effect anyway.

[This account no longer in use.]

If that had been released earlier on, that could have made a big impact. Bad idea by the GOP to do it so late.

[Matty]

Why do so many people on the left here think Quist will win? Outside of (very) dubious google polling, we have actual firms showing +15 (emerson), +14 (gravis), and +7 (change).

This isn't GA-6 where trump won by only 1.5, this is a statewide election where trump won by 20.

Is there any evidence that quist will win here? At all?

[_]

Why do so many people on the left here think Quist will win? Outside of (very) dubious google polling, we have actual firms showing +15 (emerson), +14 (gravis), and +7 (change).

This isn't GA-6 where trump won by only 1.5, this is a statewide election where trump won by 20.

Is there any evidence that quist will win here? At all?

Consider the Republican Candidate, A candidate for Governor in 2016 who voters may be weary of, who has flipped on the AHCA, an unpopular bill, has been subject to numerous attacks not only in this race but also in the Governor's race, and the fact that Quist has a decent campaign with a number of high profile and popular names campaigning with and backing him, in addition to numerous donations from small donors.  Quist won't win that's for sure, but he's made it far closer than anyone expected, in no small part thanks to Gianforte being a sub-par candidate.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Why do so many people on the left here think Quist will win? Outside of (very) dubious google polling, we have actual firms showing +15 (emerson), +14 (gravis), and +7 (change).

This isn't GA-6 where trump won by only 1.5, this is a statewide election where trump won by 20.

Is there any evidence that quist will win here? At all?

Consider the Republican Candidate, A candidate for Governor in 2016 who voters may be weary of, who has flipped on the AHCA, an unpopular bill, has been subject to numerous attacks not only in this race but also in the Governor's race, and the fact that Quist has a decent campaign with a number of high profile and popular names campaigning with and backing him, in addition to numerous donations from small donors.  Quist won't win that's for sure, but he's made it far closer than anyone expected, in no small part thanks to Gianforte being a sub-par candidate.

Yes, exactly.  And if Gianforte wins narrowly, which is what I expect, the GOP will probably try to spin it as the voters rejecting Democratic liberalism.   But if the margin is in single digits, that should be a huge warning sign to the GOP.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Article on Lake County's predicting power:

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/single-county-watch-montanas-special-election/story?id=47570773

That was a really good read. Thanks for sharing!

Questions Continue to Swell: No Record That Rob Quist Registered for Selective Service Says National Archives
Washington Free Beacon/Brent Scher
May 24, 2017 5:00 am

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This is probably the last oppo dump on Quist - and likely too late to have any effect anyway.

So, he didn't register during the Vietnam era? That would make me want to vote for him even more.

[MT Treasurer]

Consider the Republican Candidate, A candidate for Governor in 2016 who voters may be weary of, who has flipped on the AHCA, an unpopular bill, has been subject to numerous attacks not only in this race but also in the Governor's race, and the fact that Quist has a decent campaign with a number of high profile and popular names campaigning with and backing him, in addition to numerous donations from small donors.  Quist won't win that's for sure, but he's made it far closer than anyone expected, in no small part thanks to Gianforte being a sub-par candidate.

If Gianforte is a subpar candidate, then what is Quist? Don't get me wrong, but blaming Gianforte for the closeness of this race is ridiculous. For the most part, he's run a pretty good campaign (which is why I still think he will win), even though I think he would make a better governor than Congressman, honestly. I can think of only one Republican (Ed Buttrey) who would have done better than Gianforte (and even that's a big if). Yes, he doesn't have a lot of crossover appeal, that's true, but there isn't any Montana Republican other than maybe Tim Fox who would have won over more (Democratic-leaning) Independents here, especially with Trump in the White House. This idea that Ken Miller, Carl Glimm, Ed Walker, or any other Republican nominee would have been spared from Democratic attack ads (Remember Denny Rehberg and Rick Hill, anyone?) is beyond ridiculous. So if Republicans lose this race, the last conclusion they should draw from this is that it only happened "because Quist ran a great campaign and Gianforte ran an awful one". Both of these things aren't true. A loss here would be pretty devastating for the MT GOP, and I have no doubt that both sides will do a lot of "spinning" tomorrow.

As for why the race is close... Montana Democrats have always done well in statewide and Senate races here and Quist can - despite all of his flaws - appeal to many people in the state, especially "Independents" who didn't like Clinton (yes, Trump won by 20 points, but like I said, it would have been much closer with any other Democratic nominee). The Democrats also have a high floor in the state and some of the attacks against Gianforte ("rich multimillionaire from NJ who wants to sell off public lands, cut access to health insurance and slash education funding) are resonating with a non-negligible number of voters and make it easy for Quist to rally his base, especially since the Democrats used basically the same attacks against him in the gubernatorial race in 2016. Plus, Quist is benefiting from a strong ground game, higher Democratic enthusiasm (probably), support from the national Democratic party, donations from small donors, the health care debate, etc.

[JMT]

My final prediction:

Gianforte (R): 49.5%
Quist (D): 47.5%
Wicks (L): 3%

I want to believe Quist can win, and he still might be able to. But I think Gianforte is narrowly favored.

[MT Treasurer]

As of 5/23:

County (2016 Presidential vote, Gubernatorial vote) % returned

Cascade (voted for Trump by 22%, Bullock by 10%) 68.3% of mail-ins returned (+2.9)

Flathead (voted for Trump by 36%, Gianforte by 15%) 72.2% of mail-ins returned (+4.8 )

Gallatin (voted for Clinton by 1%, Bullock by 15%) 65.4% of mail-ins returned (+2.9)

Lake (voted for Trump by 21%, Bullock by 1%) 76.3% of mail-ins returned (+4.7)

Lewis & Clark (voted for Trump by 7%, Bullock by 23%) 73.3% of mail-ins returned (+2.2)

Missoula (voted for Clinton by 16%, Bullock by 34%) 65.9% of mail-ins returned (+3.6)

Ravalli (voted for Trump by 38% Gianforte by 14%) 74.8% of mail-ins returned (+1.4)

Silver Bow (voted for Clinton by 14%, Bullock by 44%) 71.7% of mail-ins returned (+2.1)

Yellowstone (voted for Trump by 27%, Gianforte by 1%) 70.8% of mail-ins returned (+2.7)

STATEWIDE: 70.2% of mail-ins returned (+3.0)

Added the change (5/22-5/23) in brackets.

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If Gianforte loses, it won't be because of low turnout in Republican areas, that's for sure:

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Link.

[_]

As of 5/23:

County (2016 Presidential vote, Gubernatorial vote) % returned

Cascade (voted for Trump by 22%, Bullock by 10%) 68.3% of mail-ins returned (+2.9)

Flathead (voted for Trump by 36%, Gianforte by 15%) 72.2% of mail-ins returned (+4.8 )

Gallatin (voted for Clinton by 1%, Bullock by 15%) 65.4% of mail-ins returned (+2.9)

Lake (voted for Trump by 21%, Bullock by 1%) 76.3% of mail-ins returned (+4.7)

Lewis & Clark (voted for Trump by 7%, Bullock by 23%) 73.3% of mail-ins returned (+2.2)

Missoula (voted for Clinton by 16%, Bullock by 34%) 65.9% of mail-ins returned (+3.6)

Ravalli (voted for Trump by 38% Gianforte by 14%) 74.8% of mail-ins returned (+1.4)

Silver Bow (voted for Clinton by 14%, Bullock by 44%) 71.7% of mail-ins returned (+2.1)

Yellowstone (voted for Trump by 27%, Gianforte by 1%) 70.8% of mail-ins returned (+2.7)

STATEWIDE: 70.2% of mail-ins returned (+3.0)

Added the change (5/22-5/23) in brackets.

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If Gianforte loses, it won't be because of low turnout in Republican areas, that's for sure:

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Link.

He loses or wins based on the margin in Yellowstone, I wonder what Bullock voters think of Quist.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Trump's recorded call going out to Montanans is against exploiting loopholes in state law. That same law is why polls have been few and rubbish.

Edit: WaPo is garbage at titles

[cinyc]

Trump's recorded call going out to Montanans is against exploiting loopholes in state law. That same law is why polls have been few and rubbish.

Edit: WaPo is garbage at titles

You have to use live operators to place a robo call in Montana.  That's one reason why we've gotten so few polls there.  It's more expensive to do so.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Why do so many people on the left here think Quist will win? Outside of (very) dubious google polling, we have actual firms showing +15 (emerson), +14 (gravis), and +7 (change).

This isn't GA-6 where trump won by only 1.5, this is a statewide election where trump won by 20.

Is there any evidence that quist will win here? At all?

You had a good case there, and I was listening, but when you gave Gravis credibility, you lost me. It's entirely possible that Gianforte wins, but I'll be darned if his margin of victory is anywhere higher the mid to upper single digits. There is little debate that Quist will do substantially to significantly better than Clinton, because that's almost a given. The quistion (pun intended) is whether he can pull it off or not, and it's probably likely that he will not.

[Donerail]

Why do so many people on the left here think Quist will win? Outside of (very) dubious google polling, we have actual firms showing +15 (emerson), +14 (gravis), and +7 (change).

one is a bunch of college kids back in august, one is a new firm doing their first poll, and one is gravis.

[Kantakouzenos]

Two questions. 

What time do the polls close tomorrow, and what is a good website to use for watching the results come in county by county?

[MT Treasurer]

Two questions. 

What time do the polls close tomorrow, and what is a good website to use for watching the results come in county by county?

1.) 10 PM EST = 8 PM MST.
2.) Definitely the NY Times. Their maps are excellent.

[Gass3268]

So this happened:

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[_]

So this happened:

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Proof?

[Donerail]

So this happened:

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Proof?

usually published reporters do not randomly slander republican tech billionaires

[DrScholl]

Republicans have gone totally insane.

[ApatheticAustrian]

So this happened:

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Proof?

audio coming up in a minute but we should trust one of the more serious journalists anyway.

[Progressive]

All over Twitter now, Jacobs confirmed it really happened. Violent thug Gianforte. The party is maniacal.

[ApatheticAustrian]

relax for now, could easily have been an accident.

[Skill and Chance]

A Bob Etheridge moment?