MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Quist and Curtis are both lefty - Curtis was accused of being a psuedo-commie when she ran for Senate.

It didn't help that she had a video blog in which she mocked gun owners, talked sorta vulgarly about her "pansexuality" (the most white-girl thing I might have heard), and basically acted like an out an out caricature of a SJW.

[Skill and Chance]

I'm far more hopeful about this race than GA-06.

Why? Montana swung 6 points to the right in 2016 giving Trump a 20 point win while GA-06 swung 21 points to the left, with Trump winning only by 1.5%. I realize that Democrats have won statewide in Montana many times and even just last election, but fighting the fundamentals of the state seems harder than in an individual district that trended largely in the positive direction.

He's basically the perfect candidate for the state and Montana Dems have had a very resilient Blue Dog streak through the Obama era and still managed multiple statewide wins.  Downballot Dem strength in MT can't be called a fluke anymore after Bullock cleared 50% running with Trump last November, and unlike in WV, they didn't have to practically run a 3rd party campaign to do it.  Gianforte is still favored, no doubt, but with Quist, Democratic odds just rose to 20-25% here.

[Figueira]

Democrats have always done badly at the presidential level in Montana but well at the Congressional level. This is more true with the Senate than that House, but there's no reason why it needs to be.

[Skill and Chance]

Democrats have always done badly at the presidential level in Montana but well at the Congressional level. This is more true with the Senate than that House, but there's no reason why it needs to be.

Montana is IMO a lot more interesting than WV.  LBJ was the last Dem nominee to win a majority there and yet the senate seat currently occupied by Steve Daines was held by Democrats for over a century.  The Tester seat was held by Republicans for only 2 terms in the past century.  The state has also only ever had a handful of Republican governors, and yet this was all while Republicans were winning presidential elections there for 50 years, save for a 38% Clinton win in 1992!

[Mike Thick]

I'm far more hopeful about this race than GA-06.

Why? Montana swung 6 points to the right in 2016 giving Trump a 20 point win while GA-06 swung 21 points to the left, with Trump winning only by 1.5%. I realize that Democrats have won statewide in Montana many times and even just last election, but fighting the fundamentals of the state seems harder than in an individual district that trended largely in the positive direction.

He's basically the perfect candidate for the state and Montana Dems have had a very resilient Blue Dog streak through the Obama era and still managed multiple statewide wins.  Downballot Dem strength in MT can't be called a fluke anymore after Bullock cleared 50% running with Trump last November, and unlike in WV, they didn't have to practically run a 3rd party campaign to do it.  Gianforte is still favored, no doubt, but with Quist, Democratic odds just rose to 20-25% here.

Also going to note that Trump actually got a lower percentage of the vote there than Romney -- the increased margin is more reflective of Hillary's six-point dip than any significant Republican gains.

[LabourJersey]

Quist is precisely the kind of Democrat who can win in Montana, so I really hope he wins. I'd be curious to see how this could effect the GA-6 race, since that runoff will happen a few weeks after this election.

If Quist wins, are Democrats going to be energized and feel they can win in GA, or will Republicans panic and invest heavily in GA-6 in order to save face?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Quist is precisely the kind of Democrat who can win in Montana, so I really hope he wins. I'd be curious to see how this could effect the GA-6 race, since that runoff will happen a few weeks after this election.

If Quist wins, are Democrats going to be energized and feel they can win in GA, or will Republicans panic and invest heavily in GA-6 in order to save face?

I think more reps panic but it could go the other way

[diptheriadan]

Honestly, we could use some of this in the House:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QzPaI5bTP48

Hell of a lot better than O'Malley.

[Xing]

Glad to see Quist won, hope he can pull this off.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I didnt realize Quist was a Berniecrat:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Well, he beat another Berniecrat, Curtis. So many races without a Berniecrat, and here we had one beat another.

[smoltchanov]

Glad to see Quist won, hope he can pull this off.

+1. At least - Democrats nominated their best candidate here.

[NeverAgain]

Woot! I signed up for his campaign tonight.

[Ronnie]

I'm not terribly optimistic about this election, but it'll definitely be interesting to see how a political novice like Quist does in this environment.  He needs a lot of outside help.

[BuckeyeNut]

I hope Dan West has a future of some kind in MT politics, but I'm excited for Quist.

[Heisenberg]

I hope Dan West has a future of some kind in MT politics, but I'm excited for Quist.

He's super young, so he's got plenty of opportunities. Even if he doesn't go statewide, I can see him as a Democratic State House/Senate leader.

[Beet]

Quist and Curtis are both lefty - Curtis was accused of being a psuedo-commie when she ran for Senate.

It didn't help that she had a video blog in which she mocked gun owners, talked sorta vulgarly about her "pansexuality" (the most white-girl thing I might have heard), and basically acted like an out an out caricature of a SJW.

So?

[Figueira]

The NRCC is already attacking Quist:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The bolded part is kind of funny considering that Trump said the exact same thing.

[Figueira]

Quist and Curtis are both lefty - Curtis was accused of being a psuedo-commie when she ran for Senate.

It didn't help that she had a video blog in which she mocked gun owners, talked sorta vulgarly about her "pansexuality" (the most white-girl thing I might have heard), and basically acted like an out an out caricature of a SJW.

So?

I haven't seen Curtis's video so I won't comment on it, but calling things "white-girl" is a thing that misogynists often do to disguise their misogyny as social awareness.

[Skill and Chance]

Quist is precisely the kind of Democrat who can win in Montana, so I really hope he wins. I'd be curious to see how this could effect the GA-6 race, since that runoff will happen a few weeks after this election.

If Quist wins, are Democrats going to be energized and feel they can win in GA, or will Republicans panic and invest heavily in GA-6 in order to save face?

I think more reps panic but it could go the other way

Losing a statewide race in a rural 85%+ white state that swung massively to Trump would and should be a lot scarier for Republicans than losing GA-06.  The latter could just be a situation where the incumbent party is on demographic borrowed time without national implications.

[Figueira]

Quist is precisely the kind of Democrat who can win in Montana, so I really hope he wins. I'd be curious to see how this could effect the GA-6 race, since that runoff will happen a few weeks after this election.

If Quist wins, are Democrats going to be energized and feel they can win in GA, or will Republicans panic and invest heavily in GA-6 in order to save face?

I think more reps panic but it could go the other way

Losing a statewide race in a rural 85%+ white state that swung massively to Trump would and should be a lot scarier for Republicans than losing GA-06.  The latter could just be a situation where the incumbent party is on demographic borrowed time without national implications.

Honestly either of them would be scary for Republicans on their own.

[Chief Justice Keef]

The NRCC is already attacking Quist:

-snip-

The bolded part is kind of funny considering that Trump said the exact same thing.

lmao

[ajbenius]

I'm far more hopeful about this race than GA-06.

Why? Montana swung 6 points to the right in 2016 giving Trump a 20 point win while GA-06 swung 21 points to the left, with Trump winning only by 1.5%. I realize that Democrats have won statewide in Montana many times and even just last election, but fighting the fundamentals of the state seems harder than in an individual district that trended largely in the positive direction.

He's basically the perfect candidate for the state and Montana Dems have had a very resilient Blue Dog streak through the Obama era and still managed multiple statewide wins.  Downballot Dem strength in MT can't be called a fluke anymore after Bullock cleared 50% running with Trump last November, and unlike in WV, they didn't have to practically run a 3rd party campaign to do it.  Gianforte is still favored, no doubt, but with Quist, Democratic odds just rose to 20-25% here.

Also going to note that Trump actually got a lower percentage of the vote there than Romney -- the increased margin is more reflective of Hillary's six-point dip than any significant Republican gains.

Not true- Trump received 55.65%, while Romney received 55.30% in Montana.

[smoltchanov]

I'm not terribly optimistic about this election, but it'll definitely be interesting to see how a political novice like Quist does in this environment.  He needs a lot of outside help.

Me too. IMHO - his chances are, at most, 20%. Even against very socially conservative Gianforte, who is the best opponent for him in not so socially conservative Montana. Still - it will be interesting.

[Figueira]

I'd rate this as Lean R for now.

[smoltchanov]

I'd rate this as Lean R for now.

Somewhat optimistic, IMHO. Somewhere between Lean and Likely..