MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Gianforte *has* to have saturated the airwaves at this point, right?

Like, everyone who is realistically going to vote in this election has now been hearing about GG in every communications medium for a calendar year.

[McGovernForPrez]

Gianforte *has* to have saturated the airwaves at this point, right?

Like, everyone who is realistically going to vote in this election has now been hearing about GG in every communications medium for a calendar year.

At this point it's probably more likely to hurt than help him. I know I get sick of seeing campaign ads everywhere I go. I got PTSD when we were getting the damn Scott Brown for NH ads here in MA.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Actually, Montana is much less urban and more rural than people think (not majority rural, but pretty close to it, IIRC). So when the Democrats win statewide, it's not just because they run up the margin in Missoula, Bozeman and Helena (and keeping it close in Bozeman/Yellowstone County!), but they also have to avoid getting clobbered in the rural areas.

Anyway, Democrats in the state really despise Gianforte with a passion, LOL. The press is definitely on Quist's side, which is much more helpful than a GOTV operation or something like that. I also agree with Skill and Chance that this is an easy race for Bernie Democrats to win. If they can't win here, there's not much reason to believe they'll win elsewhere.

Republicans definitely dodged a bullet when the healthcare bill failed, so Gianforte still has a chance.

Of course you also forgot the Democratic bases of Silver Bow and Deer Lodge Counties, Trump and Fox almost flipped them, but Gianforte got destroyed in both. If they go from being 70% D to 50-50, that hurts Democrats and helps Republicans going forward.

That's not a long-term trend and there's no reason to believe that it will "help Republicans going forward"...

[Babeuf]

750k for someone like Quist isn't a bad haul at all. He'll obviously be outspent by a lot though.

[McGovernForPrez]

750k for someone like Quist isn't a bad haul at all. He'll obviously be outspent by a lot though.

Isn't that a fairly large amount for a congressional race?

[Shadows]

Hopefully the Our-revolution endorsement will bring in a quite a lot of funds. And anyways there will be enough money to compete, that won't be a major problem.

[Tintrlvr]

750k for someone like Quist isn't a bad haul at all. He'll obviously be outspent by a lot though.

Isn't that a fairly large amount for a congressional race?

Not for a special election. Ossoff has raised much more than that.

But again, I doubt it will matter much in the end.

GA-06 is in a pricy urban media market. But Ossoff has also raised way more than needed. $750k is plenty for Quist. Wouldn't hurt to have more but also wouldn't do much to help.

[MT Treasurer]

No surprise, but the mail-in ballot bill is dead

[Ronnie]

No surprise, but the mail-in ballot bill is dead

It's telling that Republicans are willing to waste taxpayer dollars just to ensure that fewer people go to the polls.  The country needs to be clear-eyed about the Republican Party's increasing authoritarianism.

[cinyc]

No surprise, but the mail-in ballot bill is dead

It's telling that Republicans are willing to waste taxpayer dollars just to ensure that fewer people go to the polls.  The country needs to be clear-eyed about the Republican Party's increasing authoritarianism.

I don't think this was on as much of a party line vote as you think.  The motion to pass quickly was made by a Republican, and a Democrat representing Native Americans was against the bill because she thought mail-in voting only would discriminate against Native Americans.  And I don't think mail-in voting is totally eliminated without the bill.  It just requires that polling places be opened up, too:

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[Virginiá]

I don't think this was on as much of a party line vote as you think.  The motion to pass quickly was made by a Republican, and a Democrat representing Native Americans was against the bill because she thought mail-in voting only would discriminate against Native Americans.

Well it was a local Republican Party official who sent a letter to everyone saying they shouldn't approve the bill because it might hurt their chances.

And I don't think mail-in voting is totally eliminated without the bill.  It just requires that polling places be opened up, too:

That probably just means the current absentee rules. It's not the same as if everyone got a ballot.

[cinyc]

I don't think this was on as much of a party line vote as you think.  The motion to pass quickly was made by a Republican, and a Democrat representing Native Americans was against the bill because she thought mail-in voting only would discriminate against Native Americans.

Well it was a local Republican Party official who sent a letter to everyone saying they shouldn't approve the bill because it might hurt their chances.

A Republican motioned to get the bill to the floor quickly, and supported it.  A Democrat representing an Indian Reservation opposed it.  And the bill passed the Republican-dominated Montana Senate by a wide margin, where it was sponsored by a Republican. 

I don't think it is as clear cut as your typical Atlas "evil Republicans" meme espoused by the poster I was responding to, Ronnie, thinks.

And I don't think mail-in voting is totally eliminated without the bill.  It just requires that polling places be opened up, too:

That probably just means the current absentee rules. It's not the same as if everyone got a ballot.

And why should everyone be mailed a ballot?  Believe it or not, not everyone in the country has mail delivery at their house, and not everyone has ready access to a mailbox or post office to drop off outgoing mail.  This is particularly true in rural areas, like Indian Reservations, which is why the Democrat representing one opposed the bill.  Besides, mail gets lost.  In-person votes don't.

Anyone who wants to vote by mail CAN do so in Montana by simply filling out an absentee list request.

I don't like all mail-in balloting (or non-excuse absentee voting, for that matter).  It ruins election day, turning it into election week or election month.  Things can happen during election month that will cause people to regret their initial vote.

[NOVA Green]

I don't think this was on as much of a party line vote as you think.  The motion to pass quickly was made by a Republican, and a Democrat representing Native Americans was against the bill because she thought mail-in voting only would discriminate against Native Americans.

Well it was a local Republican Party official who sent a letter to everyone saying they shouldn't approve the bill because it might hurt their chances.

A Republican motioned to get the bill to the floor quickly, and supported it.  A Democrat representing an Indian Reservation opposed it.  And the bill passed the Republican-dominated Montana Senate by a wide margin, where it was sponsored by a Republican. 

I don't think it is as clear cut as your typical Atlas "evil Republicans" meme espoused by the poster I was responding to, Ronnie, thinks.

And I don't think mail-in voting is totally eliminated without the bill.  It just requires that polling places be opened up, too:

That probably just means the current absentee rules. It's not the same as if everyone got a ballot.

And why should everyone be mailed a ballot?  Believe it or not, not everyone in the country has mail delivery at their house, and not everyone has ready access to a mailbox or post office to drop off outgoing mail.  This is particularly true in rural areas, like Indian Reservations, which is why the Democrat representing one opposed the bill.  Besides, mail gets lost.  In-person votes don't.

Anyone who wants to vote by mail CAN do so in Montana by simply filling out an absentee list request.

I don't like all mail-in balloting (or non-excuse absentee voting, for that matter).  It ruins election day, turning it into election week or election month.  Things can happen during election month that will cause people to regret their initial vote.

Actually all residences do have a mailing address....  even those that are homeless have the ability to have registered mailing address, although granted this is much more difficult to obtain for those without friends or family members, especially in areas where there aren't state/local resources available to provide greater self-sufficiency to homeless residents.

Ok--- "Not everybody has access to a mailbox or post office to drop off outgoing mail"

This is an absurd statement, and actually in entirely VbM states there are as many (or more) county ballot drop-off stations, as there are voting locations. So your argument is a bit ridiculous on the surface, since either the cost of putting a stamp on an envelope, vs the cost of gas to drive to a ballot drop-off location (Or voting precinct in the current model) in rural areas, actually works out cheaper for citizens to vote-by-mail than drive.

Just when I thought the arguments against VbM were already totally OTT, now you throw out the old canard of "things get lost in the mail".

Actually, the reality is that in VbM states there are extensive resources available to track one's ballot. State, County, Local Gvt, as well as the US Postal Service are well aware of the importance of not only the legal and statutory requirements regarding VbM and the Right to Vote, but additionally, this is a revenue stream and they practice meticulous standards to ensure that all ballots are captured within the Mail stream and routed to the local County government within an extremely timely fashion.

I have worked in Postal related occupations, and regardless of partisan affiliation, I can tell you that at all the way down the line from the mail carriers, to the mail handlers, not to mention the pretty amazing automated software and oversight that the USPS has, this is definitely NOT a problem for mail-in-ballots.

So apparently your personal dislike of VbM because: " I don't like all mail-in balloting (or non-excuse absentee voting, for that matter).  It ruins election day, turning it into election week or election month.  Things can happen during election month that will cause people to regret their initial vote" is really the root cause of your opinions about VbM.

Sir, in no way will I tarnish your honor reputation and presume to question your intentions regarding VbM for partisan reasons, but quite frankly I do find your statements as to *why* you oppose VbM to be mainly based upon your personal dislike, and then throwing out a bunch of inane supporting reasons to reinforce your preexisting dislike/disdain for that voting practice.

I had many initial doubts about VbM when it was first became the only means to vote in Oregon, but actually the reality is once you kick the tires on the car, take it for a spin around the neighborhood, you'll find that pretty much everyone likes it regardless of Democratic/Republican/Libertarian/Green/ or Purple....

Shoot--- It saves a boatload of time standing in line at a polling place, saves a bunch of gas money in many cases, all for either the cost of a US Stamp....

Regarding the "not being able to change your vote"---- well, that's pretty easy.... most states allow VbM ballots to be processed so long as they are either postmarked within a few days before the election, or you can always drop it off at one of many designated locations in a secure ballot box that is literally picked up the day before the election, or even drive down to the county courthouse and physically deposit it before closing time on election night!

I'm not particularly convinced that this would even really help the Democratic Party in Montana, but what it will do is increase the ability of voters to participate in the political process, and save all of them some time and money in the process.

[Virginiá]

And why should everyone be mailed a ballot?  Believe it or not, not everyone in the country has mail delivery at their house, and not everyone has ready access to a mailbox or post office to drop off outgoing mail.  This is particularly true in rural areas, like Indian Reservations, which is why the Democrat representing one opposed the bill.  Besides, mail gets lost.  In-person votes don't.

First, we're talking about a bill that enabled this mainly for the special election as a cost-saving measure. In that context, I don't see what the big deal is. If everyone got a ballot, turnout would probably end up being higher overall. If you want to talk about VbM across the board, then I would say I very much prefer systems like Colorado, where everyone gets a ballot but there are also larger polling places where anyone in a county can go to and cast their vote in-person. If the problems with the mail was enough of an issue for Native Americans, they could have easily allowed polling places there and still saved money. I won't comment on things getting lost in the mail - NOVA already did, and I definitely agree with him.

I don't like all mail-in balloting (or non-excuse absentee voting, for that matter).  It ruins election day, turning it into election week or election month.  Things can happen during election month that will cause people to regret their initial vote.

Then allow people to send in another ballot, or if limited in-person voting is also allowed, then allow them to go in and cast another vote. Have only the last vote cast be counted. I believe some states actually allow this, and it is really not a big deal to do. People can alter their vote if something big enough happens to sway them. But, either way, I'd also argue that this is no different than something happening that makes them regret their vote a week after election day. There will always be people with regret, and I don't see why a week after election day is any different than a week after one casts their vote during early voting but before end of voting. It's arbitrary.

I get that you don't like the idea of extended voting, but I don't believe the world / people work in a way that can do without it. There are, imo, plenty more reasons for having extended time and options to vote then there are against.

[McGovernForPrez]

Quist released his first television ad.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9c--EsRoiGs&feature=youtu.be

[GlobeSoc]

Quist released his first television ad.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9c--EsRoiGs&feature=youtu.be

Pretty good message

[Dr. Arch]

Quist released his first television ad.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9c--EsRoiGs&feature=youtu.be

Pretty good, actually. One thing I've noticed is that unlike in GA-06, both Gianforte and Quist aren't really trying to nationalize the race.

I think if this were a gubernatorial race, Quist would win fairly handily. He'll have a tougher time winning a House seat, but of course it's still a pure Tossup.

He looks like an excellent candidate. Are you thinking about voting for him?

[publicunofficial]

Quist released his first television ad.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9c--EsRoiGs&feature=youtu.be

Pretty good, actually. One thing I've noticed is that unlike in GA-06, both Gianforte and Quist aren't really trying to nationalize the race.

I think if this were a gubernatorial race, Quist would win fairly handily. He'll have a tougher time winning a House seat, but of course it's still a pure Tossup.

He looks like an excellent candidate. Are you thinking about voting for him?

I think TN Vol has roughly the same policy I do: I can recognize individual Republican candidates as being good politicians, not a complete monster, and even find them more likable than their opponents. But I'm far too political and too aware of the importance of chamber majorities to ever vote for them.

[Maxwell]

I'm listening to Quist's music, and dude's a fantastic musician. Smooth voice too.

Then again I love me some bluegrass so...

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

I'm listening to Quist's music, and dude's a fantastic musician. Smooth voice too.

Then again I love me some bluegrass so...

Yeah -- I really dislike smooth voices in country music (cf: George Jones), but I can definitely appreciate him and the various bands that he's been in.

[Virginiá]

A Montana Special Election Nobody Is Following Could Deal A Huge Blow To Trump
Big Sky Country Democrats are running a legendary folk singer with a populist flair against a cartoon plutocrat. Why won’t the national party pay attention?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/rob-quist-a-montana-special-election-nobody-is-following-could-deal-a-huge-blow-to-trump_us_58e3fcc5e4b03a26a3670c30

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[henster]

The lack of help from the DSCC seems to confirm their shift from WWC to upscale suburban districts.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

The lack of help from the DSCC seems to confirm their shift from WWC to upscale suburban districts.

Are Democrats now the party of the Bloombergeois?

[JA]

The lack of help from the DSCC seems to confirm their shift from WWC to upscale suburban districts.

Are Democrats now the party of the Bloombergeois?

Unfortunately, it would appear to be this way. Sanders represents the end of an era, rather than the beginning of a new one. He represents the dying gasps of the non-college educated White element of the Democratic Party - the one that can actually transcend partisanship (hence his stunning favorability among Independents). He's the last holdout of the New Deal Coalition and its nearly finalized influence on the party. There's no one who can carry his torch for a reason; the rest are too steeped in modern Democratic politics.

Just look at the demographics of Trump's approval/disapproval numbers; Whites without a college education (not to be confused with White working class) are the sole group that yet approve of him, whereas the traditional backbone of the Republican Party, which had been Whites with a college education, have essentially abandoned him. This group still gave him more votes than Clinton last year, but now his numbers among them are abysmal. Democratic leadership knows who to pursue and will adapt their policies and rhetoric to capture that new pool of voters starting in 2018. It's why they're focusing on the suburban district in Georgia while ignoring Montana.

[MT Treasurer]

The lack of help from the DSCC seems to confirm their shift from WWC to upscale suburban districts.

I think this is actually a good thing. If he gets money from the DSCC then the GOP can run 'Quist is Pelosi's puppet!' campaign ads

Yeah, I agree with this. The only thing they came up with was that "Quist is a Bernie Sanders Democrat!" ad, which was pretty bad. Not saying that they shouldn't energize their base, but IMO nationalizing this race would be a dumb idea for both of them, this isn't GA-06. Others here might disagree, but I think they would be well-advised to keep their distance from the national parties.

It would be nice if someone actually polled this race, it has received surprisingly little attention outside of Atlas so far.