MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Holmes]

All-mail special election might be back on the table:

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/montana/articles/2017-04-07/governor-uses-veto-pen-to-push-mail-only-voting

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This is why Steve Bullock is the man.

This like, doesn't even come close to the most awesome Montana Democratic Governor Veto Hijinks.

Man, quit making me so nostalgic. Look what Hillary cost us

Cost you what? Did she implement the term limits that kicked Schweitzer out of office? There is another Democratic governor in Montana right now.

[Beet]

3) Endorsing and campaigning for Hillary Clinton. It made him look like a huge hypocrite, since his whole campaign was railing against her, now he supports her?

Why? Bernie could have legitimate issues with her and make a case against her in the context of him vs her, but against Trump, it's easy to see why she is still the better pick from the perspective of Democrats/many others.

imo, Trump has only continued to bolster that view since becoming president.

It was just some hard headed, objective political analysis, but some people thought it "sore." Anyway, the Gravis poll only confirms my prediction of a 10-point Gianforte win, only it appears some third candidates will be significant, so I switch my prediction from 55%-45% to 53%-43%.

[Shadows]

3) Endorsing and campaigning for Hillary Clinton. It made him look like a huge hypocrite, since his whole campaign was railing against her, now he supports her?

Why? Bernie could have legitimate issues with her and make a case against her in the context of him vs her, but against Trump, it's easy to see why she is still the better pick from the perspective of Democrats/many others.

imo, Trump has only continued to bolster that view since becoming president.

It was just some hard headed, objective political analysis, but some people thought it "sore." Anyway, the Gravis poll only confirms my prediction of a 10-point Gianforte win, only it appears some third candidates will be significant, so I switch my prediction from 55%-45% to 53%-43%.

Beet, Bernie has supported every major Dem nominee from Bill Clinton to Al Gore to Kerry to Obama & even he was for Bill Clinton ran as an uber centrist, sometimes trying to go to the right of Dole, gutted welfare etc. The choice is clear - It is a 2 way race & the other option is the GOP. And he said clearly even before the primary, that he will support HRC or whoever the Dem nominee is for the general.

But his endorsement & him enthusiastically rallying everywhere for HRC came with a small price - Some policy issues which HRC adopted so that he could atleast make the case to his supporters. And he said time & again, that real change comes in the primaries not the GE where you have to chose among 2 people.

And against Trump, I think most of his supporters understood it too.

[MT Treasurer]

Uh, back on topic... While this race doesn't tell us much about 2018 Senate race, it's somewhat of a proxy war between Daines and Tester. Daines is Gianforte's best buddy and encouraged him to run for the special election, and Tester was trying hard to get Quist nominated behind the scenes. So a big Gianforte win/a Quist victory would be pretty disappointing for Tester/Daines, respectively.

[Figueira]

Uh, back on topic... While this race doesn't tell us much about 2018 Senate race, it's somewhat of a proxy war between Daines and Tester. Daines is Gianforte's best buddy and encouraged him to run for the special election, and Tester was trying hard to get Quist nominated behind the scenes. So a big Gianforte win/a Quist victory would be pretty disappointing for Tester/Daines, respectively.

Do you think the victor of this race might run for Senate in 2018/2020 (depending on the party)?

[Kamala]

Uh, back on topic... While this race doesn't tell us much about 2018 Senate race, it's somewhat of a proxy war between Daines and Tester. Daines is Gianforte's best buddy and encouraged him to run for the special election, and Tester was trying hard to get Quist nominated behind the scenes. So a big Gianforte win/a Quist victory would be pretty disappointing for Tester/Daines, respectively.

Do you think the victor of this race might run for Senate in 2018/2020 (depending on the party)?

I doubt that Gianforte's 3 Elections in 2 Years will help his popularity; it doesn't seem like he'd be able to unseat Tester - he did lose to incumbent Bullock, after all.

[MT Treasurer]

It's official: There will be only three candidates on the ballot: Gianforte (R), Quist (D), Wicks (L)

Do you think the victor of this race might run for Senate in 2018/2020 (depending on the party)?

Actually, I really don't think it will happen. Quist will be quite old in 2020 and Bullock is already the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination for Senate for that race. Gianforte would be foolish to run for Senate right after winning a special election to the House, he should focus on locking down the House seat. Either Fox or Rosendale will probably be the nominee for Senate, but we'll see.

[Suburbia]

If Montana Republicans and national Republicans wanted to keep this R+11 seat in this red state, Marc Racicot or Denny Rehberg would have been good candidates.

Racicot or Rehberg running in 2018 if Quist wins would be Lean R. If Racicot or Rehberg runs against Sen. Tester in 2018 would be Lean R.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Quits has announced he has raised 1.3 million in about a month https://mobile.twitter.com/NickRiccardi/status/851824112825761793

[Chief Justice Keef]

Quits has announced he has raised 1.3 million in about a month https://mobile.twitter.com/NickRiccardi/status/851824112825761793

Good to see a lot of grassroots energy for Quist. Dem leadership should really start taking this race seriously.

[Holmes]

I think things will ramp up in this race in late April, early May. Although if (when) Ossoff goes to the runoff, he might continue to suck the energy out of this race.

[Chief Justice Keef]

I think things will ramp up in this race in late April, early May. Although if (when) Ossoff goes to the runoff, he might continue to suck the energy out of this race.

If Quist wins here then I hope it sends a message to the party that these rural, working-class areas are worth investing in as much as upper-class suburb districts like GA-6.

[McGovernForPrez]

I think things will ramp up in this race in late April, early May. Although if (when) Ossoff goes to the runoff, he might continue to suck the energy out of this race.

If Quist wins here then I hope it sends a message to the party that these rural, working-class areas are worth investing in as much as upper-class suburb districts like GA-6.

Hopefully that trend will really pick up in KS-04. I would love to see a revival of western leftwing populism.

[Shadows]

Rob Quist, a folk singer and Bernie Sanders supporter running for Montana’s open House seat, announced Tuesday that he’d raised $1.3 million so far for his race – the latest example of liberal donors crowdfunding in the hopes of creating an upset.

According to Quist’s FEC filings, promoted to reporters by the campaign, the Democrat raised close to $1 million in March alone, made up of 22,333 individual contributions. The average donation was $40, boosted after Sanders’ group Our Revolution and the Daily Kos blog endorsed Quist.

Looks like small donations are pouring in for Quist after Our-Revolution endorsement, also helped raise a lot of money in Kansas & made it somewhat competitive !

[Chief Justice Keef]

Hopefully the DCCC and DNC learn their lesson tonight and start fundraising for Quist.

[publicunofficial]

Ugh... why?

http://www.kxlf.com/story/35127583/donald-trump-jr-to-campaign-for-greg-gianforte-in-montana

He's gonna win them over with his authentic rugged outdoorsman persona.

[Dr. Arch]

Ugh... why?

http://www.kxlf.com/story/35127583/donald-trump-jr-to-campaign-for-greg-gianforte-in-montana

RIP Gianforte

[Virginiá]

Hopefully the DCCC and DNC learn their lesson tonight and start fundraising for Quist.

Hopefully. I'm not prepared to draw conclusions until the end of this year, but so far the party seems to be off to a bad start (imo). It's one thing if the internals are showing the Democrat way down, but with this KS election, it was genuinely close and they had time to react, yet they didn't. Money/etc is not guaranteed to move the needle enough, but in this case tonight it could have at least told the base that they are listening and adapting. Instead, they make no effort and basically tell everyone "we're not changing ****." Perceptions matter.

I know for sure I'd like to know that the party whom I donate much time and money is actually trying new things, taking some risks and moving past failed strategies/ideas. Anyway, we'll see how the next 2 elections go I suppose.

[cinyc]

Hopefully the DCCC and DNC learn their lesson tonight and start fundraising for Quist.

Hopefully. I'm not prepared to draw conclusions until the end of this year, but so far the party seems to be off to a bad start (imo). It's one thing if the internals are showing the Democrat way down, but with this KS election, it was genuinely close and they had time to react, yet they didn't. Money/etc is not guaranteed to move the needle enough, but in this case tonight it could have at least told the base that they are listening and adapting. Instead, they make no effort and basically tell everyone "we're not changing ****." Perceptions matter.

I know for sure I'd like to know that the party whom I donate much time and money is actually trying new things, taking some risks and moving past failed strategies/ideas. Anyway, we'll see how the next 2 elections go I suppose.

You are assuming that nationalizing races in blood red Trump states makes sense.  The DCCC coming in will allow Gianforte to credibly tie Quist to San Fran Nan and New York Chuck, who I'm sure aren't that popular in Montana.  Who's to say Thompson wouldn't have lost by a larger margin had the KS-04 race been nationalized more?

[Virginiá]

You are assuming that nationalizing races in blood red Trump states makes sense.  The DCCC coming in will allow Gianforte to credibly tie Quist to San Fran Nan and New York Chuck, who I'm sure aren't that popular in Montana.  Whose to say Thompson wouldn't have lost by a larger margin had the KS-04 race been nationalized more?

But then what is the alternative? Democrats abandon candidates in deeply Republican territory out of fear of it backfiring? I'm sure there are instances where it will be plenty valid, but the 'nationalization' excuse doesn't seem that strong to me. It seems like a good excuse to keep doing what the party said it would stop doing.

[cinyc]

You are assuming that nationalizing races in blood red Trump states makes sense.  The DCCC coming in will allow Gianforte to credibly tie Quist to San Fran Nan and New York Chuck, who I'm sure aren't that popular in Montana.  Whose to say Thompson wouldn't have lost by a larger margin had the KS-04 race been nationalized more?

But then what is the alternative? Democrats abandon candidates in deeply Republican territory out of fear of it backfiring? I'm sure there are instances where it will be plenty valid, but the 'nationalization' excuse doesn't seem that strong to me. It seems like a good excuse to keep doing what the party said it would stop doing.

No.  The Democratic establishment should quietly support the candidate in other ways, by sending in surrogates that don't have ties to the Democratic establishment (like Sanders), and finding other ways to quietly get them resources behind the scenes.  Share the GOTV apparatus, microtargeting data and donor lists, for example.  Don't get into a situation where your Kansas or Montana candidate can be tied to unlikable characters from San Francisco and New York City.

[Shadows]

If the DNC stars following advise of people who think free this free that bad, healthcare isn't a right blah blah the party is going to die like the Whigs.

Either way it is good that atleast Bernie with his Our-Revolution thing is raising some money for these candidates (if they are progressives). No1 has asked the DNC team to send Biden or Booker or Perez, just send some god damn money & help with the ground staff & field operations. In a low turnout election, a little more effort here & there can make you win & many of these are determined by turnout from the base. I mean Ted Cruz, has 0 crossover appeal & is essentially a scumbag but even he went to Kansas to turnout the base.

[McGovernForPrez]

You are assuming that nationalizing races in blood red Trump states makes sense.  The DCCC coming in will allow Gianforte to credibly tie Quist to San Fran Nan and New York Chuck, who I'm sure aren't that popular in Montana.  Whose to say Thompson wouldn't have lost by a larger margin had the KS-04 race been nationalized more?

But then what is the alternative? Democrats abandon candidates in deeply Republican territory out of fear of it backfiring? I'm sure there are instances where it will be plenty valid, but the 'nationalization' excuse doesn't seem that strong to me. It seems like a good excuse to keep doing what the party said it would stop doing.

No.  The Democratic establishment should quietly support the candidate in other ways, by sending in surrogates that don't have ties to the Democratic establishment (like Sanders), and finding other ways to quietly get them resources behind the scenes.  Share the GOTV apparatus, microtargeting data and donor lists, for example.  Don't get into a situation where your Kansas or Montana candidate can be tied to unlikable characters from San Francisco and New York City.

I agree with this point, but I still feel like the national party can do more in these races. I'm happy Perez sent Quist some staffers, but that Kansas race should've been contested more. The fact that the DCCC chair didn't know there was an election going on Montana is absolutely horrifying. That suggests to us that they aren't even thinking about how they can help candidates.

[Virginiá]

No.  The Democratic establishment should quietly support the candidate in other ways, by sending in surrogates that don't have ties to the Democratic establishment (like Sanders), and finding other ways to quietly get them resources behind the scenes.  Share the GOTV apparatus, microtargeting data and donor lists, for example.  Don't get into a situation where your Kansas or Montana candidate can be tied to unlikable characters from San Francisco and New York City.

I'm not talking about airdropping Schumer or Pelosi into GOP territory. As it stands, Republicans already try to tie those kinds people around the necks of red state Democrats. That is practically a given in these races. I'm sorry but I just don't see it as being a much more effective line of attack if national organizations kick in some money/other resources (like you stated). Maybe there are some situations where it would be a bad idea, but not all of them.

[Chief Justice Keef]

You are assuming that nationalizing races in blood red Trump states makes sense.  The DCCC coming in will allow Gianforte to credibly tie Quist to San Fran Nan and New York Chuck, who I'm sure aren't that popular in Montana.  Whose to say Thompson wouldn't have lost by a larger margin had the KS-04 race been nationalized more?

But then what is the alternative? Democrats abandon candidates in deeply Republican territory out of fear of it backfiring? I'm sure there are instances where it will be plenty valid, but the 'nationalization' excuse doesn't seem that strong to me. It seems like a good excuse to keep doing what the party said it would stop doing.

No.  The Democratic establishment should quietly support the candidate in other ways, by sending in surrogates that don't have ties to the Democratic establishment (like Sanders), and finding other ways to quietly get them resources behind the scenes.  Share the GOTV apparatus, microtargeting data and donor lists, for example.  Don't get into a situation where your Kansas or Montana candidate can be tied to unlikable characters from San Francisco and New York City.

But the Republicans did that anyways. Estes literally says in one of his ads that Thompson "will vote the way Pelosi tells him to."

The result of this election can be attributed to the fact the GOP put a ton of resources into this race after they realized they might lose. Instead of capitalizing on that momentum, the Democrats just sat on their asses and said, "well, we can't win every election."

Democrats constantly think they're playing a chess game with the GOP where they have to sacrifice some moves, when in reality the GOP is playing dodgeball and constantly putting time and money into these elections and winning.