MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[The Other Castro]

Harry is saying Quist is "within single digits" https://mobile.twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/862797237289717763

We've known that for LONG time, Harry. Some actual news now, please?

Harry Enten isn't a reporter, he just gives lukewarm takes.

[MT Treasurer]

Of course they're going to return more mail-in ballots when they're the most populated counties in the state. It's the percentage that counts, and that 29.86% number in Missoula and the 47.52% in Yellowstone don't really suggest good news for Quist. EDIT: Also, it's literally just a 300-vote edge.

I wouldn't read too much into this, though. Still interesting, of course, but Democratic or Republican turnout could be extremely high on election day.

[Tintrlvr]

Of course they're going to return more mail-in ballots when they're the most populated counties in the state. It's the percentage that counts, and that 29.86% number in Missoula and the 47.52% in Yellowstone don't really suggest good news for Quist.

I wouldn't read too much into this, though. Still interesting, of course, but Democratic or Republican turnout could be extremely high on election day.

It's also just percentage of requested ballots returned so far. Doesn't Missoula have a big student population? Young people tend to return absentee ballots much later in the process.

[MT Treasurer]

I made a map showing the percentage of requested ballots returned so far in the Bullock (red) and Pianoforte (blue) counties. I apologize for the awful color scheme:



Light blue 20%-29.99% --> 30%-39.99% --> 40%-49.99% --> 50%-59.99% Dark Blue
Light red 20%-29.99% --> 30%-39.99% --> 40%-49.99% --> 50%-59.99% Dark Red

Missoula is just short of 30%, so it's a little bit better for Democrats than would appear in this map. Same is true for Lewis and Clark, where the number is very close to 50%.  

Turnout in Yellowstone County seems to be very high - Problem: that doesn't tell us much since we don't know the margin here. PF should win the county, but he needs to win it by at least 5 points in order to win statewide.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Cook has moved this from Likely R to Lean R: http://cookpolitical.com/story/10350

[_]

The race has been at lean R since it started.

[OneJ]

I made a map showing the percentage of requested ballots returned so far in the Bullock (red) and Pianoforte (blue) counties. I apologize for the awful color scheme:

Don't you mean Quist TN? Lol.

[MT Treasurer]

I made a map showing the percentage of requested ballots returned so far in the Bullock (red) and Pianoforte (blue) counties. I apologize for the awful color scheme:

Don't you mean Quist TN? Lol.

No, Bullock. Bullock was the Democratic nominee for governor in 2016 and this map shows the percentage of requested ballots returned so far in the counties won by Bullock and Pianoforte in the 2016 gubernatorial race. Obviously there is no way we can know what the map for the special election will look like.

[OneJ]

I made a map showing the percentage of requested ballots returned so far in the Bullock (red) and Pianoforte (blue) counties. I apologize for the awful color scheme:

Don't you mean Quist TN? Lol.

No, Bullock. Bullock was the Democratic nominee for governor in 2016 and this map shows the percentage of requested ballots returned so far in the counties won by Bullock and Pianoforte in the 2016 gubernatorial race. Obviously there is no way we can know what the map for the special election will look like.

Ah. I see now.

[Shadows]

Montana is going to feel the Bern !

U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders will hold a free public rally in Missoula on Saturday, May 20 to support the campaign of Democrat Rob Quist for Montana's lone seat in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Sanders will be appearing at the Wilma Theater at 131 S. Higgins Avenue on his four-city swing through the state. Doors open at 10 a.m. and the rally will be from 11 a.m. to noon. Visitors need to RSVP by going to http://go.robquist.org/page/s/bernie-gotv-tour and clicking the RSVP link.

Sanders will also headline Saturday rallies at the Butte Civic Center from 3 to 4 p.m., and at the Billings Depot from 8:30 to 9:30 p.m. On Sunday, he will appear at the Union Building Ballroom in Bozeman from 11 a.m. to noon.

http://missoulian.com/news/local/bernie-sanders-to-campaign-for-rob-quist-at-the-wilma/article_0f0b39b0-9769-5b48-a71e-11cd431e807b.html

[BuckeyeNut]

I know Donal Trump is President, but I honestly don't get how this is still competitive given Quist's history.

[Skill and Chance]

I know Donal Trump is President, but I honestly don't get how this is still competitive given Quist's history.

Non-violent scandals may simply not matter anymore.  We'll see.

[Brittain33]

Think about Mark Sanford returning to Congress. These races are nationalized and personality defects are rationalizations for why the disfavored party's candidate loses, not reasons. (That said I'm pessimistic about Quist.)

[MT Treasurer]

Think about Mark Sanford returning to Congress. These races are nationalized and personality defects are rationalizations for why the disfavored party's candidate loses, not reasons. (That said I'm pessimistic about Quist.)

This race hasn't really been nationalized very much, though. Yes, the national mood is clearly a factor, but not nearly as significant as in GA-06, for example. I agree that Quist's "scandals" won't matter on election day, though.

[Brittain33]

Think about Mark Sanford returning to Congress. These races are nationalized and personality defects are rationalizations for why the disfavored party's candidate loses, not reasons. (That said I'm pessimistic about Quist.)

This race hasn't really been nationalized very much, though. Yes, the national mood is clearly a factor, but not nearly as significant as in GA-06, for example. I agree that Quist's "scandals" won't matter on election day, though.

Thanks, I appreciate your perspective from Montana.

[Kantakouzenos]

If Quist wins, would his coalition be much different than Bullock's?  is there any voting blocs Quist is stronger or weaker with than Bullock was?

[Maxwell]

I know Donal Trump is President, but I honestly don't get how this is still competitive given Quist's history.

Quist is running a great campaign and seems identifiable in a way that Gianforte is just not.

[MT Treasurer]

If Quist wins, would his coalition be much different than Bullock's?  is there any voting blocs Quist is stronger or weaker with than Bullock was?

This is actually a good question - I don't think there will be many differences, but I'm not entirely sure. Some polls shown have shown a much larger East-West divide than in the past - I doubt it will be that pronounced on election day, but I think Yellowstone Co. will vote more to the right of the state than it did in past statewide elections. Quist could make up for it by doing better in Flathead, Gallatin and Lewis and Clark, though.

He needs a high percentage and good turnout in Missoula, unless he can do significantly better than Bullock in these rural areas. If you want five counties to watch, it would be Yellowstone (Pianoforte needs to win here by at least 5), Flathead (Quist's home county - I doubt that matters much, but watch the margin), Lewis and Clark (Democratic-leaning "swing" county - if PF wins here or comes close to winning it, Quist is 100% toast; but Quist needs to win by quite a bit, probably at least 14 or 15 points), Missoula (Quist needs to replicate Bullock's 2012 showing) plus of course if there is a general "trend" in the rural counties, especially in Eastern MT.

I'm not sure why people are surprised that the race is close, though. Republicans were never going to win this by a large margin.

[The Other Castro]

The outcome will almost certainly be in the single digits, and probably within five points either way. Gianforte appears to have the advantage, but it's completely possible that Quist could win.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I know Donal Trump is President, but I honestly don't get how this is still competitive given Quist's history.

Montana is a swing state for non-presidential races.

[Shadows]

How a Prairie Populist Could Redraw Montana’s Electoral Map

Former Governor Schweitzer sketched out the definition of prairie populism arguing that it meant “that we are a community as a whole and that there was a time for government to help … ” He called on Democrats to emphasize a shared need for effective transportation, public schools and public lands. Despite its wide libertarian streak, Montana is a state whose voters know it was the New Deal that saved farms during the Depression, that taxes built the interstate system in the 1960s, and that government-funded schools hold our small towns together.

If this sounds like the message that carried Sanders deep into the presidential primaries, that’s not an accident. That kind of message has deep roots in Montana. It goes back to former Senate Majority Leader Mansfield, who fought for the passage of the Civil Rights Act and opposed the Vietnam War, and Senator Wheeler, who ran for VP on the Progressive ticket in 1924. It goes back to the reformers in both parties who cast off the yoke of the Anaconda Copper Mining Co. in 1972 when they wrote one of the most progressive state constitutions in the nation.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/05/13/montana-special-election-rob-quist-democrat-215128

[Shadows]

A Populist Test in Trump Country

If Quist is able to come close—or even win—in a race Democrats haven’t topped since 1994, it would be evidence that supporting populist candidates might be Democrats’ best chance at regaining congressional seats in middle America. The race will function as a test of which party will benefit from the wave of populism that placed Trump in the White House and elevated Sanders.

Polling in Montana is scant, but one survey showed Trump’s approval rating in Montana fell from 53%  in late April to 48% a week later. Gianforte’s support has been similarly affected, with his margin shrinking from 13 points to eight. Since announcing his candidacy in January, he’s adopted some of Trump’s campaign slogans, saying that he’ll “make America great again” and “drain the swamp.” The state has Democrats in the governor’s mansion and one Senate seat, but statewide Democrat wins are often razor-thin and assisted by a third-party candidate collecting a few percent of votes. But if Quist’s populist strategy narrows the gap, the Montana race could highlight a path forward for Democrats in 2018.

Full Article - https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/05/in-montana-a-test-of-trump-country-populism/525834/

[Figueira]

I know Donal Trump is President, but I honestly don't get how this is still competitive given Quist's history.

Montana is a swing state for non-presidential races.

And Quist does have a lot of appeal in Montana despite having some flaws.

[MT Treasurer]

Billings Gazette endorses Pianoforte

They also endorsed Tester, Bullock and Clinton, so this is a bit surprising. For the most part, this is a pretty good article that (rightly) criticizes Quist's campaign.

[Holmes]

Quist's crappy campaign is giving them an excuse to look bipartisan.