MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[SATW]

ugh the Baucus family sucks

You have more achievements? Or judge people by names, not deeds?

Well Baucus was a pretty worthless Senator when he was in office, even by "moderate hero" standards, and he tried to get his wife confirmed to an office she wasn't confirmed. I have little confidence "Zeno" is going to be much better.

yes i know your schtick is to defend every single conservative democrat or liberal republican regardless of how worthwhile they actually are because that's what you do. and then act superior about it.

And i know your - accuse anybody you dislike with rather worthless accusations, pretending to be a sort of Supreme Court judge at least.. A freedom of opinion and speech doesn't give anybody right to slander..... It's not for you to judge who is worthless and who is not. First - do something HIMSELF - get a degree in serious science, get elected to somewhere, or something like that. AFTER that your opinion will have some weight. Before - zero.

I feel like this is spot on about many posters here.  Good comment smoltchanov, but I disagree with the rest of your comment starting at "slander." It's not slander to call someone "worthless" but it is usually a dumb thing to do say.

I can't say I was smitten by Max Baucus, but he was NOT a useless Senator and has proven to be a capable ambassador as well.

[MT Treasurer]

I wonder if this is about to be the 2018 Democratic equivalent to Scott Brown's special election upset of 2009.

Nah, if Quist wins the general (which could easily happen), it will have nothing to do with Trump.

[BuckeyeNut]

Is Quist still the Democrat you're most afraid of, TN?

[Figueira]

Is Quist still the Democrat you're most afraid of, TN?

Definitely. Maybe I'm overestimating him, but I think he could put up a good fight, which isn't something I can say of any other Democrat in this race. If the Democrats are smart, they'll nominate him.

Will Zeno's last name help him (in the primary and the general)?

[Heisenberg]

Gianforte in.

[SATW]

Gianforte in.

Didn't he blow a winnable race for Gov?

[Virginiá]

Gianforte in.

Didn't he blow a winnable race for Gov?

I don't know whether it was truly winnable or not for him, especially since Trump's large win there got him a lot more support than he might have otherwise, but I wonder if his very-recent candidacy might be a liability or a benefit for him. On one hand, he just ran a gubernatorial campaign and surely has more name recognition and a lot of people who already voted for him for one office, so maybe that will boost his prospects. On the other hand, maybe the majority of people who already rejected him again reject him for any number of reasons. Though, I guess the electorate will be leagues smaller and more elderly-centric.

[MT Treasurer]

Will Zeno's last name help him (in the primary and the general)?

Nah, not really. Keep in mind that he isn't even in, he just said that he is considering entering the race. But I have my doubts that he will run - even the Baucus family (and yes, they are terrible) knows that Zeno would almost certainly lose this race in an embarrassing fashion.

And regarding Gianforte.. well, he's obviously the favorite to win the GOP nomination. He would have won in 2016 had this been an open governor's seat, but Montana isn't going to vote out an incumbent Democratic governor who is reasonably popular among his progressive base as well as moderates and who even many Republicans don't mind. Most posters here tend to forget that gubernatorial races aren't really that partisan and usually not affected by coattails (see VT, NH, and especially WV and MT as examples). Montana is very purple on the statewide level and Democrats not named Hillary Clinton have a relatively high floor in the state. While Trump's big win (which, more than anything else, really was a rejection of Hillary Clinton, who is the worst possible fit for this state) obviously didn't hurt Gianforte, it also didn't give him a boost on election day, and I disagree that it got him a lot more support than he would have had otherwise, especially given how polarized MT still is. Gianforte didn't run a perfect campaign, but it wasn't really that bad either. Maybe Fox would have done a bit better, but he wouldn't have beat Bullock either.

Anyway, take this with a grain of salt, but the general feeling among some party supporters and insiders here seems to be that the Democrats will either nominate Amanda Curtis or Rob Quist, but more likely the former. I don't see her winning the general, especially if her opponent is Gianforte or Buttrey, but who knows. A Quist vs. Gianforte race would be epic, though.

[Virginiá]

and I disagree that it got him a lot more support than he would have had otherwise, especially given how polarized MT still is.

Well that would be because you don't believe in the idea of coattails, right?

[MT Treasurer]

and I disagree that it got him a lot more support than he would have had otherwise, especially given how polarized MT still is.

Well that would be because you don't believe in the idea of coattails, right?

Montana is a state that is generally not affected by "coattails". And yeah, like I said, the coattail effect was basically nonexistent in many states that had gubernatorial races in 2016 - Vermont, New Hampshire, Montana, West Virginia, etc. I guess you could argue about Indiana, I don't know what happened there (then again, Gregg was - just like Bayh - quite overhyped). It's a different story in the Senate races, but I wasn't even talking about them.

But this typical Atlas idea that Gianforte must have run a terrible campaign just because he lost by 4 points to a popular incumbent Democrat in a purple state is ridiculous.

[Heisenberg]

Gianforte and Quist appear to be the front runners right now

With Buttrey (R) and Curtis (D) as possible alternatives.

Buttrey should just defer to Gianforte and run for U.S. Senate next year.

[Baki]

Gianforte and Quist Curtis appear to be the front runners right now

With Buttrey (R) and Curtis Quist (D) as possible alternatives.

[Sven]

I think Gianforte would be a home run for this seat and hell, it'll open him up to winning the Governorship in 2020 should he choose to run.

I beg to differ. Gianforte comes across to me as the sort of candidate very likely to spontaneously combust - a regular "Akin-in-the-makin'", in other words. I don't claim to know anything about Montana politics, but Gianforte strikes me as just about the best candidate we could face this side of Punching Bag Spencer.

[Sven]

I think Gianforte would be a home run for this seat and hell, it'll open him up to winning the Governorship in 2020 should he choose to run.

I beg to differ. Gianforte comes across to me as the sort of candidate very likely to spontaneously combust - a regular Akin-in-the-making, in other words. I don't claim to know anything about Montana politics, but Gianforte strikes me as just about the best candidate we could face this side of Punching Bag Spencer.

He is nothing like Todd Akin. Please stop.

Stunning commentary, pardner. Care to elaborate at all?

[Sven]

Curtis is more of an Akin than Gianforte, and neither come even close to being an Akin. A Curtis vs. Gianforte race would be Leans R at best for Ds, and that's being generous to them. If Ds are smart, they'll nominate Quist.

I won't disagree on that last point, but I always have to give the side-eye to candidates as far-right as Gianforte, knowing the tendencies of those esteemed far-righties who came before him (Akin, Mourdock, Angle, et al).

That being said, I'm no Montanan, so maybe I'm talking out my ass.

[MT Treasurer]

Straw poll of MT Democrats shows close race, Quist leading Curtis by 7 votes

[Chief Justice Keef]

I'm thinking we're gonna end up with a Quist v. Buttrey race. Lean R in that case.

[Figueira]

Straw poll of MT Democrats shows close race, Quist leading Curtis by 7 votes

Grain of salt, but good news!

[MT Treasurer]

Scott Sales (R) out

[136or142]

Reasons two Republican legislators opposes making this special election vote by mail:

At the Senate Republican caucus meeting, state GOP Chair and Rep. Jeff Essmann of Billings and Secretary of State Corey Stapleton both spoke against Senate Bill 305, by Sen. Steve Fitzpatrick, R-Great Falls.

Essmann, a former state senator, said SB 305 was brought with good intentions, but he warned it could hurt Republicans.

The GOP chairman repeated comments he made in an “Emergency Chairman’s Report” email he sent this week with an analysis contending that the bill would disadvantage Republicans in the special election. Essmann predicted a mail-ballot election could increase the turnout of “low-propensity voters” and give Democrats an edge in the special election.

“All mail ballots give the Democrats an inherent advantage in close elections due to their ability to organize large numbers of unpaid college students and members of public employee unions to gather ballots by going door to door,” Essmann’s letter said.

Democrats, Essmann said, have “perfected the mechanics of using mail ballots” in recent elections. Essmann said he fears “the long-term viability of our Republican Party” if Montana switches to all-mail ballots.

Stapleton, the state’s chief election official, said he wasn’t there to tell Senate Republicans how to vote, but told senators they were the protectors of the Republican form of government. He urged them to think twice about “an all-mail-in ballot.”

“If you look at the three states that have done it, you can see that populism and direct democracy at its best, all three states — Oregon, Washington and Colorado — they do all-mail-in ballots and they’re all marijuana-all-the-time states too,” Stapleton said. “Is that what you want? Because that’s what you’re going to get.”

http://www.bozemandailychronicle.com/news/mtleg/republicans-divided-over-letting-counties-use-all-mail-ballots-in/article_26defd9f-cda3-5e42-adaf-66bb2ed139e1.html
It passed the legislative committee vote though 6-2

[windjammer]

Straw poll of MT Democrats shows close race, Quist leading Curtis by 7 votes

Grain of salt, but good news!

Too many undecided to be reliable.

[BuckeyeNut]

Seeing a young guy named Dan West all over (my) social media. Running as a Democrat, he worked for NASA under Obama as a political appointee after teaching Physics in Missoula. He's also the grandson of the Heifer International founder.

[Virginiá]

“If you look at the three states that have done it, you can see that populism and direct democracy at its best, all three states — Oregon, Washington and Colorado — they do all-mail-in ballots and they’re all marijuana-all-the-time states too,” Stapleton said. “Is that what you want? Because that’s what you’re going to get.”

"Implement all-mail voting and Montana will be flooded with marijuana."

That's a first. At least it's a nice break from the usual whining about non-existent voter fraud.

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah, Obama appointee Dan West officially in

[BuckeyeNut]

Yeah, Obama appointee Dan West officially in

Your risk assessment as a MT Republican?