MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[cinyc]

My Google Survey Poll is complete.  It is either the canary in the coal mine or a huge outlier.

The question:
"Montanans will go to the polls on May 25 to vote for a new U.S. Congressman. If this special election were held today, for whom would you vote?"

The choices were (in random order, except the last option):
"-Democrat Rob Quist
-Republican Greg Gianforte
-Libertarian Mark Wicks
-I am not likely to vote in this election"

502 people were polled.  173 of those 502 chose the "I am not likely to vote in this election" option - 2 fewer than those who chose Democrat Quist.  When weighted for age and sex to 2014 CPS LV weights, the 329 decided likely voters chose Quist by a large margin:

Quist (D) 55%
Gianforte (R) 38%
Wicks (L) 6%
i.e. Quist +17

Unweighted, it's Quist +14 (53/39/8).  Google weighted to the Internet audience is Quist +15 (54/39/8).  The poll was taken from 3/11-14 Mountain Time.

As I hinted, there is a huge regional divide in the results.  Quist has a 33-point 2014 LV weighted lead in Western Montana (which usually comprises about 59% of the vote in a typical election) (64/31/5; N=209).  Gianforte leads by 9 in Eastern Montana (50/41/9; N=116).  Unweighted, it's Quist +29 in Western Montana, and Gianforte +10 in Eastern Montana.

I divided Eastern and Western Montana this way:

It is based on Montana's Area Health Education Regions.

There's not much of a gender gap, at least in the unweighted numbers (women: Quist+16; men Quist +12).  There is a bit of an age gap, with the 18-24 (+18), 25-34 (+34), 55-64 (+34) and 65+ (+15) sets going for Quist, the 35-44 (-9) set going for Gianforte, and the 45-54 set tied, but sample sizes are small.

Google gave me a rural/suburban/urban and imputed income breakdown in their final e-mailed spreadsheet.  I didn't weight them.  Gianforte runs better in rural areas (Quist+4) than suburban areas (Quist+22).  The few urban voters actually broke for Gianforte, but the sample size is really small (N=7).  There's nothing notable about the income numbers except that the overwhelming majority of Montanans polled were $25,000-$49,999 bracket.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

[Figueira]

I want to get excited but I remember that this is the same polling method that gave Hillary large leads in Kansas. Grain of salt, but this is definitely a race to watch.

[cinyc]

That's insane. Surely this is just small sample noise, right? I mean, is Quist that well-known and liked as a folk singer?

The real question might be whether Gianforte is that well-known and hated statewide.  Quist could be performing as a generic Democrat against a despised Republican.

I want to get excited but I remember that this is the same polling method that gave Hillary large leads in Kansas. Grain of salt, but this is definitely a race to watch.

Definitely take this with a grain of salt.  As I said above, our one-question Google Surveys polls didn't do so well in the 2016 general election.

[Devout Centrist]

What the f**k.

I'm sorry, but that's just unbelievable. If Quist won by anywhere close to that margin, the GOP is staring into the abyss if things don't improve.

[Figueira]

I think Quist winning big would be a result of the combination of Montana oddities (people love Quist, hate Gianforte, etc.) and national discontent with the Republicans.

[heatcharger]

Thanks for doing this cinyc, even though in all likelihood, that's a huge outlier.

I could buy the idea that Gianforte is the Montana GOP's Martha Coakley though. Running twice within 6 months probably leaves a bad taste in voter's mouths.

Hopefully a legit pollster comes through sometime soon.

[GlobeSoc]

Quist is probably up, but not by that much. If this poll turns out to be accurate, then the Republicans are doing something wrong. I would expect that his ceiling for this particular election to be Quist+10, barring Gianforte pulling an Akin. As an incumbent going into 2018, I could see a +17 type margin, though.

[cinyc]

That's insane. Surely this is just small sample noise, right? I mean, is Quist that well-known and liked as a folk singer?

Quist's lead in the survey was always double digits once more than 10 respondents were polled.  His smallest lead in the raw data was about 10.5 points.  It bounced around between 10-15 points most of the time.

Methodology issues are more likely to be an issue than sample size, in my view.

[KingSweden]

Thanks for doing this cinyc, even though in all likelihood, that's a huge outlier.

I could buy the idea that Gianforte is the Montana GOP's Martha Coakley though. Running twice within 6 months probably leaves a bad taste in voter's mouths.

Hopefully a legit pollster comes through sometime soon.

Seconded. Thanks for doing this, and I think Quist is narrowly favored

[Blackacre]

The worst thing about a Quist victory will be the national media interpreting this as a "rejection of the Republican Party" and people here saying that Tester is safe in 2018, etc. Ugh, it's going to be so awful.

If Quist wins by a lot, this will probably happen on Atlas for a few days, maybe a week or two tops. Because we wont have real 2018 data, it'll be easy to extrapolate from this. But it'll die down soon.

[Gass3268]

The worst thing about a Quist victory will be the national media interpreting this as a "rejection of the Republican Party" and people here saying that Tester is safe in 2018, etc. Ugh, it's going to be so awful.

If Quist wins by a lot, this will probably happen on Atlas for a few days, maybe a week or two tops. Because we wont have real 2018 data, it'll be easy to extrapolate from this. But it'll die down soon.

That same meme will probably get a few days of news cycle too.

[Devout Centrist]

The worst thing about a Quist victory will be the national media interpreting this as a "rejection of the Republican Party" and people here saying that Tester is safe in 2018, etc. Ugh, it's going to be so awful.

Tester will be pretty secure should Quist win big league, though. That's unlikely, but still.

[cinyc]

The regional divide is so large as to be unbelievable.  In the 2008 presidential election, the difference between the West and East was about 10 points.  In the 2012 presidential election, it was 12.  A 36 (raw) or 44 (weighted) point difference is way too large.  Small sample sizes leading to large MoEs, terrible Google Surveys methodology or whatever.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

hory shet

Well, thanks for compiling all of this, cinyc - and ordering the poll, of course.  Hopefully you didn't piss away $75.

[The Other Castro]

Wow. I highly doubt Quist will win by that much, but he is probably ahead at the moment.

[windjammer]

The dem isn't going to win lol

[Figueira]

The regional divide is so large as to be unbelievable.  In the 2008 presidential election, the difference between the West and East was about 10 points.  In the 2012 presidential election, it was 12.  A 36 (raw) or 44 (weighted) point difference is way too large.  Small sample sizes leading to large MoEs, terrible Google Surveys methodology or whatever.

What was the sample size of Western vs. Eastern Montana in your poll?

[cinyc]

What was the sample size of Western vs. Eastern Montana in your poll?

209/116. 

The West/East divide persisted from the start.  And it always was that stark or very close to it.

[Baki]

I would say this poll shows just that Quist does indeed have a realistic chance of winning this.

[OneJ]

I'll definitely keep a close eye on this race. I'll get too complacent like last year and Ross, Feinstein, Kander (the result was not very surprising though), and Bayh all ended up getting beaten.

So are a good number of Montanans getting fed up with the "establishment or the usual" or could it be something else?

BTW, thanks ciync.

[Kantakouzenos]

Here is an interesting thought.  If Quist wins and holds the seat until redistricting, he may thereafter have an easier time keeping his seat, since Montana is expected to gain a congressional district.  Assuming the states districts are drawn so that one takes up the west half of the state, and another takes up the east half, he would be competing for a seat that I think would be either a tossup or Democrat leaning, since Quist is from the western half of the state. 

[OneJ]

Here is an interesting thought.  If Quist wins and holds the seat until redistricting, he may thereafter have an easier time keeping his seat, since Montana is expected to gain a congressional district.  Assuming the states districts are drawn so that one takes up the west half of the state, and another takes up the east half, he would be competing for a seat that I think would be either a tossup or Democrat leaning, since Quist is from the western half of the state. 

Good point made.

[heatcharger]

Here is an interesting thought.  If Quist wins and holds the seat until redistricting, he may thereafter have an easier time keeping his seat, since Montana is expected to gain a congressional district.  Assuming the states districts are drawn so that one takes up the west half of the state, and another takes up the east half, he would be competing for a seat that I think would be either a tossup or Democrat leaning, since Quist is from the western half of the state. 

That would probably require a Democratic governor to get elected in 2020, because in the hypothetical scenario of Montana getting a second district, a Republican could just force him out East and draw a new Western district. I'm skeptical of a Democrat keeping the mansion for 20 straight years, and assuming Bullock challenges Daines and Quist is still in office, that'd be asking to send 2 Democrats to Washington and 1 to Helena. That's a tough sell to a state that voted for Trump by 20%.

[cinyc]

That would probably require a Democratic governor to get elected in 2020, because in the hypothetical scenario of Montana getting a second district, a Republican could just force him out East and draw a new Western district. I'm skeptical of a Democrat keeping the mansion for 20 straight years, and assuming Bullock challenges Daines and Quist is still in office, that'd be asking to send 2 Democrats to Washington and 1 to Helena. That's a tough sell to a state that voted for Trump by 20%.

Congressmen don't technically need to live in the district they represent, just the state.  And he could always move into the new district, anyway. 

I suppose that a Republican could gerrymander two clear Republican-leaning districts, though.  But the power of incumbency is sometimes stronger than district lines, anyway.