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| | |-+  MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25
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Author Topic: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25  (Read 15971 times)
McGovernForPrez
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« Reply #350 on: March 19, 2017, 02:09:49 am »
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I'd be really surprised if the DCCC didn't get in here soon as well.
I think you severely underestimate the stupidity of our national party. There were multiple Texas districts that Hillary won where we didn't even field a candidate. If there's anything I have faith in it's they're ability to completely screw up our congressional power.
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« Reply #351 on: March 19, 2017, 09:00:55 am »
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I'd be really surprised if the DCCC didn't get in here soon as well.
I think you severely underestimate the stupidity of our national party. There were multiple Texas districts that Hillary won where we didn't even field a candidate. If there's anything I have faith in it's they're ability to completely screw up our congressional power.
But Montana is rural so we can never win despite the fact we have the perfect match-up no GA-6 needs all our resources because district trending an suburban an stuff like that 
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« Reply #352 on: March 19, 2017, 09:31:50 am »
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I'd be really surprised if the DCCC didn't get in here soon as well.
I think you severely underestimate the stupidity of our national party. There were multiple Texas districts that Hillary won where we didn't even field a candidate. If there's anything I have faith in it's they're ability to completely screw up our congressional power.

Only one Texas district.
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« Reply #353 on: March 19, 2017, 11:42:33 am »
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So I see this thread is going well... Anyway, campaign mailings and internet ads on the Quist side aren't being reported, so it's not as if he's spending nothing. I'm highly skeptical that money will make a big difference in this race anyway.

That's definitely true. In fact, (not)Gov. Gianforte can tell you that money isn't everything.

TNVol: You're obviously on the other side of the aisle, but do you have any idea what Quist's campaign infrastructure looks like? I'm not sure I trust a 70yo first time politician to be a champion organizer, but the party could have put him in good hands.

I don't know much about it, but he's holding many campaign rallies and obviously has a sizable number of volunteers. The MDP is 100% united behind Quist, so that's not an issue. I'd be really surprised if the DCCC didn't get in here soon as well.
IIRC, he had 100 volunteers for the day of his launch?
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« Reply #354 on: March 19, 2017, 11:52:13 am »
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I'd be really surprised if the DCCC didn't get in here soon as well.
I think you severely underestimate the stupidity of our national party. There were multiple Texas districts that Hillary won where we didn't even field a candidate. If there's anything I have faith in it's they're ability to completely screw up our congressional power.

Only one Texas district.
I mean the TX-32 should've also had a candidate. It's a majority minority district and we let the Republicans have it for free. Even Green party got 10% of the vote there. It's utterly embarassing.
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« Reply #355 on: March 19, 2017, 12:49:43 pm »
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I'd be really surprised if the DCCC didn't get in here soon as well.
I think you severely underestimate the stupidity of our national party. There were multiple Texas districts that Hillary won where we didn't even field a candidate. If there's anything I have faith in it's they're ability to completely screw up our congressional power.
But Montana is rural so we can never win despite the fact we have the perfect match-up no GA-6 needs all our resources because district trending an suburban an stuff like that 

I mean, there's nothing wrong with investing in GA-6; we should be competing in both districts.  That said, I obviously agree that it is ridiculous to ignore a seat like the open one in MT.  Fortunately, I expect the Democrats to jump in there soon enough, but a strong DCCC would've already had this on their radar.  That said, I can't stress enough how much worse it would've been with Sean Patrick Baloney as chair instead of Lujan.  The former has argued that you can use data metrics to successfully predict how every house seat will vote without fail months before the election and that the DCCC should be more reliant on a #Data is King strategy.  Maloney is a good fit for his district and I don't really mind him or anything, but he'd have been an absolute disaster as DCCC chairman.  

Rahm Emanuel may've been an awful, third-way corporatist with no understanding of why a 50 state strategy is so vital, but the man was also a pretty dam* competent DCCC chair (much as I hate to admit it) who understood that data metrics weren't the only factor that should be considered when deciding where to compete.  I'd have preferred to see Lujan replaced with someone who excelled in the two areas where Emanuel made his greatest contribution to Democratic efforts to take back the House in 2006: candidate recruitment and being ruthlessly aggressive about seizing every opportunity to expand the playing field.  Overall, House Democrats have had absolutely awful candidate recruitment.  It is embarrassing that Jay Sidie (KS-3), LuAnn Bennett (VA-10 where a strong candidate clearly would've won in 2016), Mike Parrish (PA-6), Shaun Brown (VA-2), Michael Wager (OH-14), Michael Eggman (CA-10 where once again, a solid recruit clearly would've won in 2016), Emilio Huerta (CA-21), Scott Fuhrman (FL-27), Joe Garcia (FL-26 although Annette Taddeo wasn't a strong candidate either), etc, etc, etc were the folks we ended up nominating in their respective districts.  

And then you have folks who were either obviously a terrible fit for their districts (ex: Emily Cain) or blew winnable races by running horrible campaigns (ex: Monica Vernon).  The DCCC has also constantly knee-capped their efforts to retake the house by ignoring opportunities to compete in Republican leaning districts and even moderate/Democratic-leaning seats with popular/entrenched incumbents.  Democrats won't win back the House unless they can put a massive number of seats on the board.  Recruiting top-tier candidates such a small number of districts that the Democrats need to essentially run the board to have a shot at a narrow majority is a surefire way to keep the House in Republican hands.

Data can be extremely useful in a whole host of ways, but it isn't the only important thing to look at when deciding where to compete either, especially when there are the potential conditions for a wave election.   One would've hoped the DCCC would have learned this after 2016 (or better still not needed to be taught this lesson in the first place).  That said, the fact that Perez and Ellison (admittedly DNC leaders rather than DCCC folks) seem to be pretty open to a return to a 50 state strategy is cause for cautious optimism and I'm going to reserve judgment for now as I suspect national Democrats are going to get involved here sooner rather than later.

That all being said, I can understand districts like TX-32 not having a candidate in 2016.  There was literally no reason to think Sessions could even theoretically be vulnerable.  It's a very conservative *and* partisan district that probably had PVI of at least R +10 and a weak-to-nonexistent Democratic bench at best.  Furthermore, it has a strong incumbent in House leadership who won his closest election by double-digits and isn't wildly to the right of most of folks in the district who actually vote.  It's a majority-minority district on paper, but that's about it.  I'm still not convinced we can win here even if it were an open seat in a huge Democratic wave, but I do think we should at least try to run wave insurance candidates here (or at least the closest thing we have Tongue ) for the next two cycles and see what happens. 

It's also important to remember that in many ways, it's still far from clear whether or not 2016 was a massive fluke or a true re-aligning election.  Honestly, we may not even know until the 2020 election cycle is over, but we certainly don't know right now.  The thing about realigning elections though (if that's what 2016 even was) is that they tend to be pretty hard to predict.
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« Reply #356 on: March 19, 2017, 01:15:04 pm »
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I'd be really surprised if the DCCC didn't get in here soon as well.
I think you severely underestimate the stupidity of our national party. There were multiple Texas districts that Hillary won where we didn't even field a candidate. If there's anything I have faith in it's they're ability to completely screw up our congressional power.
But Montana is rural so we can never win despite the fact we have the perfect match-up no GA-6 needs all our resources because district trending an suburban an stuff like that 

I mean, there's nothing wrong with investing in GA-6; we should be competing in both districts.  That said, I obviously agree that it is ridiculous to ignore a seat like the open one in MT.  Fortunately, I expect the Democrats to jump in there soon enough, but a strong DCCC would've already had this on their radar.  That said, I can't stress enough how much worse it would've been with Sean Patrick Baloney as chair instead of Lujan.  The former has argued that you can use data metrics to successfully predict how every house seat will vote without fail months before the election and that the DCCC should be more reliant on a #Data is King strategy.  Maloney is a good fit for his district and I don't really mind him or anything, but he'd have been an absolute disaster as DCCC chairman.  

I don't disagree with any of your points, in fact I agree that the "data is king" approach was pretty discredited last year and we can't write off anything, but it still kind of stings every time my congressman gets dragged through the mud Tongue

If Lujan is still a bit of a downer though, who do you think would have been the best possible DCCC chair?
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« Reply #357 on: March 19, 2017, 07:49:55 pm »
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I'd be really surprised if the DCCC didn't get in here soon as well.
I think you severely underestimate the stupidity of our national party. There were multiple Texas districts that Hillary won where we didn't even field a candidate. If there's anything I have faith in it's they're ability to completely screw up our congressional power.
But Montana is rural so we can never win despite the fact we have the perfect match-up no GA-6 needs all our resources because district trending an suburban an stuff like that 

Rahm Emanuel may've been an awful, third-way corporatist with no understanding of why a 50 state strategy is so vital, but the man was also a pretty dam* competent DCCC chair (much as I hate to admit it) who understood that data metrics weren't the only factor that should be considered when deciding where to compete.  I'd have preferred to see Lujan replaced with someone who excelled in the two areas where Emanuel made his greatest contribution to Democratic efforts to take back the House in 2006: candidate recruitment and being ruthlessly aggressive about seizing every opportunity to expand the playing field.  Overall, House Democrats have had absolutely awful candidate recruitment.  It is embarrassing that Jay Sidie (KS-3), LuAnn Bennett (VA-10 where a strong candidate clearly would've won in 2016), Mike Parrish (PA-6), Shaun Brown (VA-2), Michael Wager (OH-14), Michael Eggman (CA-10 where once again, a solid recruit clearly would've won in 2016), Emilio Huerta (CA-21), Scott Fuhrman (FL-27), Joe Garcia (FL-26 although Annette Taddeo wasn't a strong candidate either), etc, etc, etc were the folks we ended up nominating in their respective districts. 

And then you have folks who were either obviously a terrible fit for their districts (ex: Emily Cain) or blew winnable races by running horrible campaigns (ex: Monica Vernon).  The DCCC has also constantly knee-capped their efforts to retake the house by ignoring opportunities to compete in Republican leaning districts and even moderate/Democratic-leaning seats with popular/entrenched incumbents.  Democrats won't win back the House unless they can put a massive number of seats on the board.  Recruiting top-tier candidates such a small number of districts that the Democrats need to essentially run the board to have a shot at a narrow majority is a surefire way to keep the House in Republican hands.

I agree completely. Plus, running retreads doesn't often work; Doug Owens in UT-04 can tell you that.
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« Reply #358 on: March 20, 2017, 08:29:53 am »
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I'm guessing that this quote is probably pretty representative of their attitude. Which is deeply disappointing, to say the least.

"None of the five contests pose a threat to the Republicans’ majority in the House. Four of the five seats have been under GOP control, and save for Georgia and to a lesser extent, Montana, they’re all but guaranteed to remain red districts in 2017 and beyond.

“It’s not like we lost these districts by 5 points last time,” one Democratic strategist said of Georgia’s 6th District and Montana’s at-large House seat."

Whatever happened to the 50-state strategy? I don't care if they're "unwinnable", you should be putting time into every single race, even ones that you know you're not going to win. And MT-AL and GA-6 are both winnable.
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« Reply #359 on: March 20, 2017, 10:26:58 am »
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Shocker, Democratic "Strategists" don't want money going out of their pockets to competitive elections. This may explain why MILLIONS were given to strategists, while the NH State Party, which included competitive Presidential, Senatorial, Congressional, Gubernatorial, AND state legislative elections, were given only $75,000.

Thankfully, actual leadership under Perez will help end the cronyism of the Democratic Party (not sarcastic or ironic).
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« Reply #360 on: March 20, 2017, 11:08:11 am »
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Honestly I think Quist could pull this off without outside help. What'll make a difference is turnout.

Still, I think Gianforte is favored at this point, unless the race changes.
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« Reply #361 on: March 20, 2017, 01:51:37 pm »
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Honestly I think Quist could pull this off without outside help.

This, so much.

Also, Gianforte has launched his second ad.
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« Reply #362 on: March 20, 2017, 03:05:14 pm »
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It's my impression that Gianforte spent a ton in the 2016 MT-GOV race, so won't his ads be much less effective because Montana has seen so much of him so recently?
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« Reply #363 on: March 20, 2017, 03:09:58 pm »
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It's my impression that Gianforte spent a ton in the 2016 MT-GOV race, so won't his ads be much less effective because Montana has seen so much of him so recently?

So much so that it appears that he was only briefly off the air (if at all) before announcing for the House seat.

People never learn their lessons about saturation, it seems.

Honestly I think Quist could pull this off without outside help.
This, so much.

I agree, and I think that to a certain extent it's beneficial to keep the race between a New Jersey-ite tech billionaire and the front man of the Mission Mountain Wood Band from being nationalized.

But it's also so dispiriting to see a winnable race get ignored by the DCCC (so far) because it doesn't fit their idea of a 'winnable race' (aka, in the moderate suburbs outside a major metro).
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« Reply #364 on: March 20, 2017, 03:17:33 pm »
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Has a date for the election been set?
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« Reply #365 on: March 20, 2017, 03:19:27 pm »
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Has a date for the election been set?

May 25.
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« Reply #366 on: March 20, 2017, 06:17:03 pm »
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I decided to run a GCS for this race as well and I got results in between Castro's and Cinyc's. They were,

Rob Quist - 48.4%
Greg Gianforte - 40.5%
Mark Wicks - 11.1%

I left out an "I won't be voting" option to maximize the amount of responses, so take this with an (extra) grain of salt. Here is the link to the actual survey.
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« Reply #367 on: March 20, 2017, 06:31:08 pm »
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Fascinating.  Thank you, anthony!

Man, I'm tempted to donate a few bucks to Quist.  The investment might well be worth it.

EDIT: Put my money where my mouth was.  Let's hope it pays off!
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« Reply #368 on: March 20, 2017, 06:37:19 pm »
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Fascinating.  Thank you, anthony!

Man, I'm tempted to donate a few bucks to Quist.  The investment might well be worth it.

EDIT: Put my money where my mouth was.  Let's hope it pays off!

Yeah, I actually have a weird amount of emotional investment in the race.
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« Reply #369 on: March 20, 2017, 06:59:50 pm »
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Honestly I think Quist could pull this off without outside help.

This, so much.

Also, Gianforte has launched his second ad.
Fairly boilerplate positions, I'm not sure why he emphasized protectionism at the end. Is that a major issue in Montana?
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« Reply #370 on: March 20, 2017, 07:49:58 pm »
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I decided to run a GCS for this race as well and I got results in between Castro's and Cinyc's. They were,

Rob Quist - 48.4%
Greg Gianforte - 40.5%
Mark Wicks - 11.1%

I left out an "I won't be voting" option to maximize the amount of responses, so take this with an (extra) grain of salt. Here is the link to the actual survey.

It's definitely heartening that all three polls so far show Quist in the lead.
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« Reply #371 on: March 20, 2017, 07:57:27 pm »
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I want Quist to win not only because he could be a great populist, but because I wanna see Gianforte get his young-Earth Creationist ass kicked to the curb.
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« Reply #372 on: March 20, 2017, 08:00:00 pm »
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I decided to run a GCS for this race as well and I got results in between Castro's and Cinyc's. They were,

Rob Quist - 48.4%
Greg Gianforte - 40.5%
Mark Wicks - 11.1%

I left out an "I won't be voting" option to maximize the amount of responses, so take this with an (extra) grain of salt. Here is the link to the actual survey.

Thanks.

Simple weighted to the 2014 November CPS actual voter percentages by age and sex, it's also Quist +8, 49/41/9.  I don't heart decimals.

The regional divide is there, but not as strong as in other polls.  Quist wins Western Montana by 14 (weighted), and loses Eastern Montana by 6 (weighted).  Western Montana was overrepresented in this poll, making up 78% of respondents versus the 59 or 60% they usually are.  The other two polls also overpolled Western Montana, but not by nearly this much.  If you re-weight the weighted regional results, you get Quist+6 statewide.

Agewise, Quist won every group except 35-44s and age unknowns.  Among men, the race is tied.  Quist has a 23 point lead among women.  Note: these results are unweighted.

Weighting spreadsheet here.
« Last Edit: March 20, 2017, 08:13:17 pm by cinyc »Logged
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« Reply #373 on: March 20, 2017, 08:48:08 pm »
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I want Quist to win not only because he could be a great populist, but because I wanna see Gianforte get his young-Earth Creationist ass kicked to the curb.
He's a young earth creationist? Man screw this guy.
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« Reply #374 on: March 21, 2017, 03:55:46 am »
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Our Revolution endorses Rob Quist (& James Thompson) for Congress. Loads of money coming from Bernie's email list.

MT-AL is a winnable seat with a good candidate who can hold a possibly red seat for many number of years. Dems should go all out for this & GA. I remember when Dems kept delaying & cancelling ad buys for Feingold when they though he was too strong/wouldn't need (& spend Millions in Florida wasted on a poor Murphy in an expensive market where Rubio was leading consistently & comfortably). This was while Hillary didn't do a single rally for Russ & Russ was getting slaughtered in TV ads from the Koch Brothers, NRA & other groups.

What is the use of raising 1.4B $ if you can't use it properly. And money is needed not just for ads but for a good ground team. Ray Buckley, NH Chair said if 10% of Hillary's TV money in attack ads were given to party chairs for door to door canvassing, volunteer teams etc - They would do much better !
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