MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25
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  MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25
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Author Topic: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25  (Read 230428 times)
Shameless Lefty Hack
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« Reply #325 on: March 20, 2017, 03:09:58 PM »

It's my impression that Gianforte spent a ton in the 2016 MT-GOV race, so won't his ads be much less effective because Montana has seen so much of him so recently?

So much so that it appears that he was only briefly off the air (if at all) before announcing for the House seat.

People never learn their lessons about saturation, it seems.

Honestly I think Quist could pull this off without outside help.
This, so much.

I agree, and I think that to a certain extent it's beneficial to keep the race between a New Jersey-ite tech billionaire and the front man of the Mission Mountain Wood Band from being nationalized.

But it's also so dispiriting to see a winnable race get ignored by the DCCC (so far) because it doesn't fit their idea of a 'winnable race' (aka, in the moderate suburbs outside a major metro).
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Blackacre
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« Reply #326 on: March 20, 2017, 03:17:33 PM »

Has a date for the election been set?
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #327 on: March 20, 2017, 03:19:27 PM »


May 25.
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anthonyjg
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« Reply #328 on: March 20, 2017, 06:17:03 PM »

I decided to run a GCS for this race as well and I got results in between Castro's and Cinyc's. They were,

Rob Quist - 48.4%
Greg Gianforte - 40.5%
Mark Wicks - 11.1%

I left out an "I won't be voting" option to maximize the amount of responses, so take this with an (extra) grain of salt. Here is the link to the actual survey.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #329 on: March 20, 2017, 06:31:08 PM »
« Edited: March 20, 2017, 06:35:11 PM by Ronnie »

Fascinating.  Thank you, anthony!

Man, I'm tempted to donate a few bucks to Quist.  The investment might well be worth it.

EDIT: Put my money where my mouth was.  Let's hope it pays off!
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Shameless Lefty Hack
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« Reply #330 on: March 20, 2017, 06:37:19 PM »

Fascinating.  Thank you, anthony!

Man, I'm tempted to donate a few bucks to Quist.  The investment might well be worth it.

EDIT: Put my money where my mouth was.  Let's hope it pays off!

Yeah, I actually have a weird amount of emotional investment in the race.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #331 on: March 20, 2017, 06:59:50 PM »

Fairly boilerplate positions, I'm not sure why he emphasized protectionism at the end. Is that a major issue in Montana?
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #332 on: March 20, 2017, 07:49:58 PM »

I decided to run a GCS for this race as well and I got results in between Castro's and Cinyc's. They were,

Rob Quist - 48.4%
Greg Gianforte - 40.5%
Mark Wicks - 11.1%

I left out an "I won't be voting" option to maximize the amount of responses, so take this with an (extra) grain of salt. Here is the link to the actual survey.

It's definitely heartening that all three polls so far show Quist in the lead.
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Chief Justice Keef
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« Reply #333 on: March 20, 2017, 07:57:27 PM »

I want Quist to win not only because he could be a great populist, but because I wanna see Gianforte get his young-Earth Creationist ass kicked to the curb.
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cinyc
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« Reply #334 on: March 20, 2017, 08:00:00 PM »
« Edited: March 20, 2017, 08:13:17 PM by cinyc »

I decided to run a GCS for this race as well and I got results in between Castro's and Cinyc's. They were,

Rob Quist - 48.4%
Greg Gianforte - 40.5%
Mark Wicks - 11.1%

I left out an "I won't be voting" option to maximize the amount of responses, so take this with an (extra) grain of salt. Here is the link to the actual survey.

Thanks.

Simple weighted to the 2014 November CPS actual voter percentages by age and sex, it's also Quist +8, 49/41/9.  I don't heart decimals.

The regional divide is there, but not as strong as in other polls.  Quist wins Western Montana by 14 (weighted), and loses Eastern Montana by 6 (weighted).  Western Montana was overrepresented in this poll, making up 78% of respondents versus the 59 or 60% they usually are.  The other two polls also overpolled Western Montana, but not by nearly this much.  If you re-weight the weighted regional results, you get Quist+6 statewide.

Agewise, Quist won every group except 35-44s and age unknowns.  Among men, the race is tied.  Quist has a 23 point lead among women.  Note: these results are unweighted.

Weighting spreadsheet here.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #335 on: March 20, 2017, 08:48:08 PM »

I want Quist to win not only because he could be a great populist, but because I wanna see Gianforte get his young-Earth Creationist ass kicked to the curb.
He's a young earth creationist? Man screw this guy.
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Shadows
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« Reply #336 on: March 21, 2017, 03:55:46 AM »

Our Revolution endorses Rob Quist (& James Thompson) for Congress. Loads of money coming from Bernie's email list.

MT-AL is a winnable seat with a good candidate who can hold a possibly red seat for many number of years. Dems should go all out for this & GA. I remember when Dems kept delaying & cancelling ad buys for Feingold when they though he was too strong/wouldn't need (& spend Millions in Florida wasted on a poor Murphy in an expensive market where Rubio was leading consistently & comfortably). This was while Hillary didn't do a single rally for Russ & Russ was getting slaughtered in TV ads from the Koch Brothers, NRA & other groups.

What is the use of raising 1.4B $ if you can't use it properly. And money is needed not just for ads but for a good ground team. Ray Buckley, NH Chair said if 10% of Hillary's TV money in attack ads were given to party chairs for door to door canvassing, volunteer teams etc - They would do much better !
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Blackacre
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« Reply #337 on: March 21, 2017, 09:28:37 AM »

Our Revolution endorses Rob Quist (& James Thompson) for Congress. Loads of money coming from Bernie's email list.

MT-AL is a winnable seat with a good candidate who can hold a possibly red seat for many number of years. Dems should go all out for this & GA. I remember when Dems kept delaying & cancelling ad buys for Feingold when they though he was too strong/wouldn't need (& spend Millions in Florida wasted on a poor Murphy in an expensive market where Rubio was leading consistently & comfortably). This was while Hillary didn't do a single rally for Russ & Russ was getting slaughtered in TV ads from the Koch Brothers, NRA & other groups.

This is the saddest, most frustrating, most infuriating thing on this forum. I miss Russ Feingold so much
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McGovernForPrez
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« Reply #338 on: March 21, 2017, 09:49:47 AM »

Our Revolution endorses Rob Quist (& James Thompson) for Congress. Loads of money coming from Bernie's email list.

MT-AL is a winnable seat with a good candidate who can hold a possibly red seat for many number of years. Dems should go all out for this & GA. I remember when Dems kept delaying & cancelling ad buys for Feingold when they though he was too strong/wouldn't need (& spend Millions in Florida wasted on a poor Murphy in an expensive market where Rubio was leading consistently & comfortably). This was while Hillary didn't do a single rally for Russ & Russ was getting slaughtered in TV ads from the Koch Brothers, NRA & other groups.

This is the saddest, most frustrating, most infuriating thing on this forum. I miss Russ Feingold so much
Russ was the man. It's so sad he failed. The man behind one of the better campaign finance reform acts defeated by Ron ing Johnson.
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Blackacre
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« Reply #339 on: March 21, 2017, 09:53:39 AM »

Our Revolution endorses Rob Quist (& James Thompson) for Congress. Loads of money coming from Bernie's email list.

MT-AL is a winnable seat with a good candidate who can hold a possibly red seat for many number of years. Dems should go all out for this & GA. I remember when Dems kept delaying & cancelling ad buys for Feingold when they though he was too strong/wouldn't need (& spend Millions in Florida wasted on a poor Murphy in an expensive market where Rubio was leading consistently & comfortably). This was while Hillary didn't do a single rally for Russ & Russ was getting slaughtered in TV ads from the Koch Brothers, NRA & other groups.

This is the saddest, most frustrating, most infuriating thing on this forum. I miss Russ Feingold so much
Russ was the man. It's so sad he failed. The man behind one of the better campaign finance reform acts defeated by Ron ing Johnson.

If the DSCC put some money into his race instead of Florida or NC then he'd probably have won, and we'd be in that much better a position. I'm worried we might not have a Senator as great as him for a while, and because of the DSCC's stupidity his name is now too toxic for a Gubernatorial run
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McGovernForPrez
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« Reply #340 on: March 21, 2017, 10:50:25 AM »

Our Revolution endorses Rob Quist (& James Thompson) for Congress. Loads of money coming from Bernie's email list.

MT-AL is a winnable seat with a good candidate who can hold a possibly red seat for many number of years. Dems should go all out for this & GA. I remember when Dems kept delaying & cancelling ad buys for Feingold when they though he was too strong/wouldn't need (& spend Millions in Florida wasted on a poor Murphy in an expensive market where Rubio was leading consistently & comfortably). This was while Hillary didn't do a single rally for Russ & Russ was getting slaughtered in TV ads from the Koch Brothers, NRA & other groups.

This is the saddest, most frustrating, most infuriating thing on this forum. I miss Russ Feingold so much
Russ was the man. It's so sad he failed. The man behind one of the better campaign finance reform acts defeated by Ron ing Johnson.

If the DSCC put some money into his race instead of Florida or NC then he'd probably have won, and we'd be in that much better a position. I'm worried we might not have a Senator as great as him for a while, and because of the DSCC's stupidity his name is now too toxic for a Gubernatorial run
It's like they don't live in the real world. You would've hoped that the Trump presidency would be a wake up call for these people but I'm convinced most of them are too politically inept to do anything about it.
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Blackacre
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« Reply #341 on: March 21, 2017, 11:23:15 AM »

Our Revolution endorses Rob Quist (& James Thompson) for Congress. Loads of money coming from Bernie's email list.

MT-AL is a winnable seat with a good candidate who can hold a possibly red seat for many number of years. Dems should go all out for this & GA. I remember when Dems kept delaying & cancelling ad buys for Feingold when they though he was too strong/wouldn't need (& spend Millions in Florida wasted on a poor Murphy in an expensive market where Rubio was leading consistently & comfortably). This was while Hillary didn't do a single rally for Russ & Russ was getting slaughtered in TV ads from the Koch Brothers, NRA & other groups.

This is the saddest, most frustrating, most infuriating thing on this forum. I miss Russ Feingold so much
Russ was the man. It's so sad he failed. The man behind one of the better campaign finance reform acts defeated by Ron ing Johnson.

If the DSCC put some money into his race instead of Florida or NC then he'd probably have won, and we'd be in that much better a position. I'm worried we might not have a Senator as great as him for a while, and because of the DSCC's stupidity his name is now too toxic for a Gubernatorial run
It's like they don't live in the real world. You would've hoped that the Trump presidency would be a wake up call for these people but I'm convinced most of them are too politically inept to do anything about it.

To be blunt the only thing keeping me a Democrat is my unhealthy optimism. I believe the party can do better than this, even if we're not seeing it right now.

Even if they did learn their lesson now tho it would be too late for Russ Sad
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #342 on: March 21, 2017, 01:37:02 PM »

Our Revolution endorses Rob Quist (& James Thompson) for Congress. Loads of money coming from Bernie's email list.

MT-AL is a winnable seat with a good candidate who can hold a possibly red seat for many number of years. Dems should go all out for this & GA. I remember when Dems kept delaying & cancelling ad buys for Feingold when they though he was too strong/wouldn't need (& spend Millions in Florida wasted on a poor Murphy in an expensive market where Rubio was leading consistently & comfortably). This was while Hillary didn't do a single rally for Russ & Russ was getting slaughtered in TV ads from the Koch Brothers, NRA & other groups.

This is the saddest, most frustrating, most infuriating thing on this forum. I miss Russ Feingold so much
Russ was the man. It's so sad he failed. The man behind one of the better campaign finance reform acts defeated by Ron ing Johnson.
Nah, he lost again to Johnson, he can go suck it.
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Shadows
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« Reply #343 on: March 21, 2017, 01:50:59 PM »

Feingold actually won many rural counties which Hilary lost & surprisingly didn't have the same numbers as Hillary had in some urban counties (that's what I read - Not Sure !). Hillary didn't do 1 rally for him to unite her base for her. Wisconsin has a massive GOP infra build by Walker, Ryan & the Kochs.

Feingold lead throughout the race comfortably & that loss was a shocker. It is fair to blame him too, (he did loose twice to Johnson) maybe he didn't run a good campaign, couldn't connect emotionally with local issues.

Dems lost WI for the 1st time in 30 odd years & with any other Dem candidate & Feingold would probably be in the Senate. He was a fantastic Senator & McCain-Feingold was a great achievement.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #344 on: March 21, 2017, 02:20:34 PM »

Feingold actually won many rural counties which Hilary lost & surprisingly didn't have the same numbers as Hillary had in some urban counties (that's what I read - Not Sure !). Hillary didn't do 1 rally for him to unite her base for her. Wisconsin has a massive GOP infra build by Walker, Ryan & the Kochs.

Feingold lead throughout the race comfortably & that loss was a shocker. It is fair to blame him too, (he did loose twice to Johnson) maybe he didn't run a good campaign, couldn't connect emotionally with local issues.

Dems lost WI for the 1st time in 30 odd years & with any other Dem candidate & Feingold would probably be in the Senate. He was a fantastic Senator & McCain-Feingold was a great achievement.
He lost by a larger margin than her, it was his fault, not hers.  He might have been dragged across the line by others, but by less than 10000 votes.
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Kantakouzenos
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« Reply #345 on: March 21, 2017, 04:18:03 PM »

Our Revolution endorses Rob Quist (& James Thompson) for Congress. Loads of money coming from Bernie's email list.

MT-AL is a winnable seat with a good candidate who can hold a possibly red seat for many number of years. Dems should go all out for this & GA. I remember when Dems kept delaying & cancelling ad buys for Feingold when they though he was too strong/wouldn't need (& spend Millions in Florida wasted on a poor Murphy in an expensive market where Rubio was leading consistently & comfortably). This was while Hillary didn't do a single rally for Russ & Russ was getting slaughtered in TV ads from the Koch Brothers, NRA & other groups.

This is the saddest, most frustrating, most infuriating thing on this forum. I miss Russ Feingold so much

Is there an official explanation for why the people who voted to drain the swamp and stop free trade also largely voted to elect a pro-trade swamp creature back to office over someone who opposed free trade and never missed a senate vote in his entire career?  The results of that race really confused me. 
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Blackacre
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« Reply #346 on: March 21, 2017, 04:34:21 PM »

Our Revolution endorses Rob Quist (& James Thompson) for Congress. Loads of money coming from Bernie's email list.

MT-AL is a winnable seat with a good candidate who can hold a possibly red seat for many number of years. Dems should go all out for this & GA. I remember when Dems kept delaying & cancelling ad buys for Feingold when they though he was too strong/wouldn't need (& spend Millions in Florida wasted on a poor Murphy in an expensive market where Rubio was leading consistently & comfortably). This was while Hillary didn't do a single rally for Russ & Russ was getting slaughtered in TV ads from the Koch Brothers, NRA & other groups.

This is the saddest, most frustrating, most infuriating thing on this forum. I miss Russ Feingold so much

Is there an official explanation for why the people who voted to drain the swamp and stop free trade also largely voted to elect a pro-trade swamp creature back to office over someone who opposed free trade and never missed a senate vote in his entire career?  The results of that race really confused me. 

It's because the DSCC never gave Feingold the resources he needed to define himself, so a ton of outside money for Johnson defined the terms of the race. Couple that with the perfect storm of Trump winning there, and there we go.
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McGovernForPrez
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« Reply #347 on: March 21, 2017, 04:38:42 PM »

Feingold actually won many rural counties which Hilary lost & surprisingly didn't have the same numbers as Hillary had in some urban counties (that's what I read - Not Sure !). Hillary didn't do 1 rally for him to unite her base for her. Wisconsin has a massive GOP infra build by Walker, Ryan & the Kochs.

Feingold lead throughout the race comfortably & that loss was a shocker. It is fair to blame him too, (he did loose twice to Johnson) maybe he didn't run a good campaign, couldn't connect emotionally with local issues.

Dems lost WI for the 1st time in 30 odd years & with any other Dem candidate & Feingold would probably be in the Senate. He was a fantastic Senator & McCain-Feingold was a great achievement.
He lost by a larger margin than her, it was his fault, not hers.  He might have been dragged across the line by others, but by less than 10000 votes.
The only reason Hillary outperformed Russ Feingold had to do with Trump's coattails in the traditionally Democratic regions in Wisconsin, versus Hillary's strength in traditionally republican suburbs. Trump had coattails in parts of the state that Feingold needed to win. Hillary performed much much worse in the traditionally Democratic parts of the region to Feingold but her Suburbanite strategy let her make up some of that gap. The problem with that strategy is it totally screwed down ballot candidates, as most of those voters were still gonna vote for their republican Senator. Hillary knew this when she engaged in this strategy, her hubris was massive.
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« Reply #348 on: March 21, 2017, 04:42:37 PM »

 Hillary Republicans that didn't want the crude Trump in office had no reason not to vote for the same GOP drones they always did through the Obama; and the large burst of relatively low-info Trump voters that showed up had no reason to vote for any Democrat, due to the lack of targeting by the national campaign. It would be silly to cast Russ as blameless, but he was screwed over by a national environment that cast Democrats against the schtick that he had historically relied on.
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Skye
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« Reply #349 on: March 21, 2017, 07:12:14 PM »

Somehow a Quist v. Gianforte thread has turned into a Feingold discussion for some reason?
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