MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Our Revolution endorses Rob Quist (& James Thompson) for Congress. Loads of money coming from Bernie's email list.

MT-AL is a winnable seat with a good candidate who can hold a possibly red seat for many number of years. Dems should go all out for this & GA. I remember when Dems kept delaying & cancelling ad buys for Feingold when they though he was too strong/wouldn't need (& spend Millions in Florida wasted on a poor Murphy in an expensive market where Rubio was leading consistently & comfortably). This was while Hillary didn't do a single rally for Russ & Russ was getting slaughtered in TV ads from the Koch Brothers, NRA & other groups.

This is the saddest, most frustrating, most infuriating thing on this forum. I miss Russ Feingold so much

Russ was the man. It's so sad he failed. The man behind one of the better campaign finance reform acts defeated by Ron ing Johnson.

If the DSCC put some money into his race instead of Florida or NC then he'd probably have won, and we'd be in that much better a position. I'm worried we might not have a Senator as great as him for a while, and because of the DSCC's stupidity his name is now too toxic for a Gubernatorial run

You're mad about the money they wasted in FL and NC? What about all the money Schumer pissed away on his own Safe D race in New York?

Anyway, on topic, Republicans could probably dig up some serious dirt on Amanda Curtis. Dems would be smart to look elsewhere. She has some past ties to a communist revolutionary group that weren't really discussed during her 2014 Senate run due to her massive polling deficit against Steve Daines.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Our Revolution endorses Rob Quist (& James Thompson) for Congress. Loads of money coming from Bernie's email list.

MT-AL is a winnable seat with a good candidate who can hold a possibly red seat for many number of years. Dems should go all out for this & GA. I remember when Dems kept delaying & cancelling ad buys for Feingold when they though he was too strong/wouldn't need (& spend Millions in Florida wasted on a poor Murphy in an expensive market where Rubio was leading consistently & comfortably). This was while Hillary didn't do a single rally for Russ & Russ was getting slaughtered in TV ads from the Koch Brothers, NRA & other groups.

This is the saddest, most frustrating, most infuriating thing on this forum. I miss Russ Feingold so much

Russ was the man. It's so sad he failed. The man behind one of the better campaign finance reform acts defeated by Ron ing Johnson.

If the DSCC put some money into his race instead of Florida or NC then he'd probably have won, and we'd be in that much better a position. I'm worried we might not have a Senator as great as him for a while, and because of the DSCC's stupidity his name is now too toxic for a Gubernatorial run

You're mad about the money they wasted in FL and NC? What about all the money Schumer pissed away on his own Safe D race in New York?

Anyway, on topic, Republicans could probably dig up some serious dirt on Amanda Curtis. Dems would be smart to look elsewhere. She has some past ties to a communist revolutionary group that weren't really discussed during her 2014 Senate run due to her massive polling deficit against Steve Daines.

Quist is the nom not Curtis

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Our Revolution endorses Rob Quist (& James Thompson) for Congress. Loads of money coming from Bernie's email list.

MT-AL is a winnable seat with a good candidate who can hold a possibly red seat for many number of years. Dems should go all out for this & GA. I remember when Dems kept delaying & cancelling ad buys for Feingold when they though he was too strong/wouldn't need (& spend Millions in Florida wasted on a poor Murphy in an expensive market where Rubio was leading consistently & comfortably). This was while Hillary didn't do a single rally for Russ & Russ was getting slaughtered in TV ads from the Koch Brothers, NRA & other groups.

This is the saddest, most frustrating, most infuriating thing on this forum. I miss Russ Feingold so much

Russ was the man. It's so sad he failed. The man behind one of the better campaign finance reform acts defeated by Ron ing Johnson.

If the DSCC put some money into his race instead of Florida or NC then he'd probably have won, and we'd be in that much better a position. I'm worried we might not have a Senator as great as him for a while, and because of the DSCC's stupidity his name is now too toxic for a Gubernatorial run

You're mad about the money they wasted in FL and NC? What about all the money Schumer pissed away on his own Safe D race in New York?

Anyway, on topic, Republicans could probably dig up some serious dirt on Amanda Curtis. Dems would be smart to look elsewhere. She has some past ties to a communist revolutionary group that weren't really discussed during her 2014 Senate run due to her massive polling deficit against Steve Daines.

There's also the over a  million dollars the DSCC spent in the Pennsylvania primary against the only 3 star vet ever in congress and then lost the general election with their candidate.

[Maxwell]

This is not a Pennsylvania thread.

That being said, Sestak was pretty much a trainwreck in his 2016 campaign and McGinty did much better than I expected her to (running even with Clinton and doing much better in rural PA). Sestak would've 100% done worse.

Quist has received the Our Revolution endorsement.

[arjavrawal]

Why are we talking about Joe Sestak, Katie McGinty, and Russ Feingold -- neither of whom have run for office in Montana?

That being said, I think Quist can win given the right resources -- hell, we can take 435 seats if they're all given the right resources. Problem is that D-Trip sucks at right resources.

[arjavrawal]

Why are we talking about Joe Sestak, Katie McGinty, and Russ Feingold -- neither of whom have run for office in Montana?

That being said, I think Quist can win given the right resources -- hell, we can take 435 seats if they're all given the right resources. Problem is that D-Trip sucks at right resources.

[warandwar]

Our Revolution endorses Rob Quist (& James Thompson) for Congress. Loads of money coming from Bernie's email list.

MT-AL is a winnable seat with a good candidate who can hold a possibly red seat for many number of years. Dems should go all out for this & GA. I remember when Dems kept delaying & cancelling ad buys for Feingold when they though he was too strong/wouldn't need (& spend Millions in Florida wasted on a poor Murphy in an expensive market where Rubio was leading consistently & comfortably). This was while Hillary didn't do a single rally for Russ & Russ was getting slaughtered in TV ads from the Koch Brothers, NRA & other groups.

This is the saddest, most frustrating, most infuriating thing on this forum. I miss Russ Feingold so much

Russ was the man. It's so sad he failed. The man behind one of the better campaign finance reform acts defeated by Ron ing Johnson.

If the DSCC put some money into his race instead of Florida or NC then he'd probably have won, and we'd be in that much better a position. I'm worried we might not have a Senator as great as him for a while, and because of the DSCC's stupidity his name is now too toxic for a Gubernatorial run

You're mad about the money they wasted in FL and NC? What about all the money Schumer pissed away on his own Safe D race in New York?

Anyway, on topic, Republicans could probably dig up some serious dirt on Amanda Curtis. Dems would be smart to look elsewhere. She has some past ties to a communist revolutionary group that weren't really discussed during her 2014 Senate run due to her massive polling deficit against Steve Daines.

Quist is the nom not Curtis

Also the IWW isn't communist.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

This is not a Pennsylvania thread.

That being said, Sestak was pretty much a trainwreck in his 2016 campaign and McGinty did much better than I expected her to (running even with Clinton and doing much better in rural PA). Sestak would've 100% done worse.

Quist has received the Our Revolution endorsement.

This is absolutely not true. Literally no one likes McGinty. She was pushed by the state party upon us as the obvious worst of three candidates. Anyone would have done better.

[Sumner 1868]

It looks like MT Republicans are currently trying to replay their 2010 card and tie Quist with Nancy Pelosi.

[McGovernForPrez]

It looks like MT Republicans are currently trying to replay their 2010 card and tie Quist with Nancy Pelosi.

Same with Ossoff in GA-6. I don't know if this has nearly the staying power anymore with her being basically irrelevant now.

I don't think it will, especially with Quist. Since he's allied with the Bernie wing of the party, it'd be hard to make the claim that he's some establishment favorite, especially when he's running against the slimy Gianforte.

[Skill and Chance]

In many ways, this special is do or die for the Bernie wing of the Democrats.  This is just about the ideal candidate and the ideal audience if there is any remaining chance to revive the rural left.

[Dr. MB]

In many ways, this special is do or die for the Bernie wing of the Democrats.  This is just about the ideal candidate and the ideal audience if there is any remaining chance to revive the rural left.

Agreed. Montana is the last of the four rural Rocky Mountain states (ID, MT, UT, WY) that the Democrats have any shot at. And that shot is slowly disappearing. It's now or never.

[Figueira]

In many ways, this special is do or die for the Bernie wing of the Democrats.  This is just about the ideal candidate and the ideal audience if there is any remaining chance to revive the rural left.

Agreed. Montana is the last of the four rural Rocky Mountain states (ID, MT, UT, WY) that the Democrats have any shot at. And that shot is slowly disappearing. It's now or never.

None of those states are majority rural. Utah is 90.6% urban.

[Skill and Chance]

In many ways, this special is do or die for the Bernie wing of the Democrats.  This is just about the ideal candidate and the ideal audience if there is any remaining chance to revive the rural left.

Agreed. Montana is the last of the four rural Rocky Mountain states (ID, MT, UT, WY) that the Democrats have any shot at. And that shot is slowly disappearing. It's now or never.

None of those states are majority rural. Utah is 90.6% urban.

The census bureau definitions include counties that are ridiculously far from the city center in the MSA for rural/urban purposes.  Charlottesville, VA is in the Washington, DC MSA for example.  Utah is almost as dominated by one major urban center as Nevada is, but the other 3 states on that list are clearly considered rural in American culture.

[Figueira]

In many ways, this special is do or die for the Bernie wing of the Democrats.  This is just about the ideal candidate and the ideal audience if there is any remaining chance to revive the rural left.

Agreed. Montana is the last of the four rural Rocky Mountain states (ID, MT, UT, WY) that the Democrats have any shot at. And that shot is slowly disappearing. It's now or never.

None of those states are majority rural. Utah is 90.6% urban.

The census bureau definitions include counties that are ridiculously far from the city center in the MSA for rural/urban purposes.  Charlottesville, VA is in the Washington, DC MSA for example.  Utah is almost as dominated by one major urban center as Nevada is, but the other 3 states on that list are clearly considered rural in American culture.

No, the Census Bureau doesn't use MSAs to decide what's urban and what's rural.

[Heisenberg]

Actually, Montana is much less urban and more rural than people think (not majority rural, but pretty close to it, IIRC). So when the Democrats win statewide, it's not just because they run up the margin in Missoula, Bozeman and Helena (and keeping it close in Bozeman/Yellowstone County!), but they also have to avoid getting clobbered in the rural areas.

Anyway, Democrats in the state really despise Gianforte with a passion, LOL. The press is definitely on Quist's side, which is much more helpful than a GOTV operation or something like that. I also agree with Skill and Chance that this is an easy race for Bernie Democrats to win. If they can't win here, there's not much reason to believe they'll win elsewhere.

Republicans definitely dodged a bullet when the healthcare bill failed, so Gianforte still has a chance.

Of course you also forgot the Democratic bases of Silver Bow and Deer Lodge Counties, Trump and Fox almost flipped them, but Gianforte got destroyed in both. If they go from being 70% D to 50-50, that hurts Democrats and helps Republicans going forward.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Story being reported in the Billings Gazette and the Missoulian about Quist's financial situation

Unclear how this will play out, since Quist seems fairly unapologetic and up front about having money struggles.

[Skill and Chance]

Story being reported in the Billings Gazette and the Missoulian about Quist's financial situation

Unclear how this will play out, since Quist seems fairly unapologetic and up front about having money struggles.

If Trump repeatedly refusing to pay his contractors wasn't an issue last year, I can't see attacks based in part on someone's medical debt resonating.  If anything, it would reinforce the Romney-like stereotype Gianforte needs to get away from.  If there is eventually financial fraud at the bottom of this, that would be a different story, but for the time being this could easily backfire.

[TheSaint250]

In many ways, this special is do or die for the Bernie wing of the Democrats.  This is just about the ideal candidate and the ideal audience if there is any remaining chance to revive the rural left.

Agreed. Montana is the last of the four rural Rocky Mountain states (ID, MT, UT, WY) that the Democrats have any shot at. And that shot is slowly disappearing. It's now or never.

Montana is the only state where Dems have a chance, maybe Wyoming but only in gubernatorial elections, but that's a stretch.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Story being reported in the Billings Gazette and the Missoulian about Quist's financial situation

Unclear how this will play out, since Quist seems fairly unapologetic and up front about having money struggles.

If Trump repeatedly refusing to pay his contractors wasn't an issue last year, I can't see attacks based in part on someone's medical debt resonating.  If anything, it would reinforce the Romney-like stereotype Gianforte needs to get away from.  If there is eventually financial fraud at the bottom of this, that would be a different story, but for the time being this could easily backfire.

This is the kind of story that clueless upper middle class beltway hack consultants often think is a gotcha, but which often backfires because it humanizes a candidate to voters who are facing similar struggles. If Quist loses, it won't be because of this.

[MT Treasurer]

Both this and the most recent attack on Gianforte by the MDP are non-stories. Nothing to see here.

Btw: Who is Wulfric endorsing in this race? I imagine both candidates aren't moderate enough for him?

[The Other Castro]

Both this and the most recent attack on Gianforte by the MDP are non-stories. Nothing to see here.

Btw: Who is Wulfric endorsing in this race? I imagine both candidates aren't moderate enough for him?

Quist likes Bernie right? Because if that's the case, Wulfric would consider him a Socialist and probably wouldn't endorse him.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I'm not making an endorsement.

[MT Treasurer]

Gianforte raises $1.5 million, Quist $750K for US Congress; Independent Group pledging $700,000 to boost the Gianforte campaign

Don't read too much into these numbers, though.

Of course you also forgot the Democratic bases of Silver Bow and Deer Lodge Counties, Trump and Fox almost flipped them, but Gianforte got destroyed in both. If they go from being 70% D to 50-50, that hurts Democrats and helps Republicans going forward.

That might help them a little, but it is cancelled out by Gallatin County trending Democratic. It has little impact overall.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Gianforte raises $1.5 million, Quist $750K for US Congress; Independent Group pledging $700,000 to boost the Gianforte campaign

Don't read too much into these numbers, though.

If anything it could help Quist as it makes him a populist underdog